1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, spot nickel fell slightly on the 15th. The spot price of nickel was reported at 176400 yuan / ton, down 0.75% from the previous trading day and up 14.27% from the beginning of the year.

The rise of the US dollar Limited metal prices, and Lun nickel fell overnight to close down 0.04%. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the interruption of aluminum and nickel supply, with rising concerns and dominated by market wait-and-see sentiment. At present, the tight nickel supply trend remains. The strong development of new energy vehicles drives the stable growth of the demand for nickel for batteries. In addition, LME inventory continues to go, the premium remains high, and the market is expected to squeeze positions. It is expected that the short-term shock trend of nickel price will mainly run.

After the Spring Festival, Shandong civil gas market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the overall decline was greater than the increase. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5540.00 yuan / ton on February 6 and 5460.00 yuan / ton on February 14, with a decline of 1.44% during the week and an increase of 53.80% compared with the same period last year.

As of February 14, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions of China are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

North China 5110-5750 yuan / ton

East China 5500-5750 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5680-5930 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5400-5900 yuan / ton

In the first week after the Spring Festival, Shandong civil gas showed a trend of rising first and then falling. At present, the price has fallen to about 5500 yuan / ton. During the holidays, due to the rise of international crude oil, the price has been adjusted one after another. However, due to the relatively high price and limited downstream acceptance capacity, with the end of replenishment, the mentality is cautious and mainly delisting. The market trading atmosphere was significantly weaker than that in the early stage, the manufacturer’s shipment was blocked, and the price was corrected in the later part of the week.

After the festival, the LPG futures market rose first and then fell, bringing phased support to the spot market. On February 14, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2203 was 5001, the highest price was 5447, the lowest price was 4938, the closing price was 5030, the former settlement price was 5076, the settlement price was 5083, down 46, or 0.91%, the trading volume was 259432, the position was 53028, and the daily position was increased by – 1088. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, boosted by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, the decline in Shandong civil gas market has narrowed. With the decline in prices, the downstream mentality has improved, and the market trading atmosphere has warmed up. In addition, the weather has cooled recently, and there are still expectations of improvement in terminal demand. It is expected that Shandong civil gas prices will be strong in the short term.

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China and Northeast China is 7200 yuan / ton, and that in central and South China is 7300 yuan / ton.

The downstream side has increased to varying degrees. The mentality of the main downstream monomer market is good, and the manufacturer has closed the plate to rise. Compared with Monday, hPEG increased by 4.44%; TPEG rose 4.35%; Monoethanolamine increased by 8.49%; Diethanolamine rose 3.16%; Triethanolamine was flat; AEO-9 rose 6.56%.

The cost side drive is obvious. After the Spring Festival, ethylene changed the decline before the festival, achieved a good start, and the market rose strongly. Ethylene oxide is already at a discount, but the fundamentals are stronger. In this way, the price rise is also expected.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 5925 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable on February 10, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the market of raw liquid chlorine is stable and the cost support is acceptable. The chlorinated paraffin market fluctuated slightly, the manufacturers increased sporadically, and the overall operation was stable. The quotation of national standard chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 5200-5350 yuan / ton, and the quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 6300 yuan / ton. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the price changes of raw materials.

Future forecast: the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

Product Name: PC latest price (February 9): 22050.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the overall domestic PC market is dominated by strong operation, narrow price range operation, strong wait-and-see atmosphere, follow-up increase in demand, general favorable support, tight domestic supply side, mainstream price is about 22000 yuan / ton, factory quotation is stable, downstream demand is general, at present, material flow is smooth, unit operating rate is normal, and manufacturer shipment is slow.

Future forecast: the PC market will run smoothly in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (February 8): 5820 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price trend of acetic acid decreased slightly today, and the average market price in East China decreased by 0.68% compared with the previous working day. The domestic market is weak, the downstream demand is weak before the festival, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises is high, the market supply is sufficient, the start of acetic acid enterprises is high after the festival, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, the market trading is light, and the acetic acid market is weak.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (February 7): 8590 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8590 yuan / ton on February 7, up 1.59% from before the festival. During the Spring Festival, the crude oil rose, the macro atmosphere was good, which boosted the market sentiment. Enterprises remained stable and waited. The offer of some enterprises increased by about 100-400 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction was mainly through negotiation. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide has fallen to around 4150-4300 yuan / ton, and the price of pvc5 calcium carbide method remains in the range of 8200-9200 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to rise steadily in the near future.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (January 27): 18475 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 250 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, with a one-day increase of 1.37%. The domestic TDI market continued to be sorted out at a high level. During the week, the guidance prices of large manufacturers were announced one after another, which boosted the mentality of operators. The holders had a strong upward mentality, and the offer rose again. The distribution market increased with the market news, and individual enterprises suspended the quotation, As a result, the increase in the distribution market is less than the increase in the market. At present, the quotation range in East China is about 17500-17600 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17900-18500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods. The spot supply in the market is tight, the supplier occupies a dominant position, and the TDI market is bullish.

Future forecast: in the later stage, the TDI market is relatively strong, and the specific attention is paid to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose slightly on January 26. The average market price in East China was 5322 yuan / ton, up 0.68% from the previous trading day and 39.77% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5410, up 156, or 2.97%.

In terms of supply, with the recent restart of multiple units, the industrial commencement has increased to more than 86%. The 3.3 million ton new unit of Yisheng new materials is planned to be commissioned at the end of January, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. However, two sets of PTA units in East China announced maintenance plans, which significantly boosted the market. Among them, Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA unit is planned to be overhauled in February; The 3.3 million T / a PTA plant of Yisheng new material is planned to be overhauled in February.

In addition, oil prices rebounded strongly on January 25, and WTI rose significantly, nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.60/barrel, up US $2.29 or 2.8%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.20/barrel, up US $1.93 or 2.2%. The main reason is that the supply side risk has boosted the oil price, the tension in Ukraine and Russia, the previous attack on the United Arab Emirates, the current risk has not been lifted, and it is difficult for OPEC to increase production.

With the arrival of the long Spring Festival holiday and the holiday of the terminal textile factory, the current situation is that the procurement is stopped, the preparation before the festival is coming to an end, and the demand is declining. In the continuous shutdown of dyeing factories and weaving factories, the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to less than 13%, mainly focusing on the closing of early orders and being cautious in receiving new orders. At present, the idea of replenishing inventory is not strong and remains in a tepid state. The operating load of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased to less than 80%, the quotation remained stable, and some factories promoted individual specifications.

Business analysts believe that some PTA units are planned to be overhauled to offset the new capacity to be put into operation, and the rebound cost of crude oil is increased, so it supports the strength of PTA prices. In the short term, PTA prices are greatly affected by costs. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of downstream polyester plants will further decline, the fundamentals are weak, and PTA continues to rise with insufficient power.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1490 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate fell on January 25, down 4.08% compared with the previous trading day. At present, the ammonium sulfate Market is divided and running, with ups and downs. Today, the market of coking grade ammonium sulfate is stable and the delivery of goods is smooth. The price of Hexin grade ammonium sulfate continued to decline, and the market inventory was low. The floor trading volume decreased, and traders mainly waited and saw. Due to the epidemic situation and the approaching Spring Festival, logistics and transportation are tight.

Future forecast: the price of ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.