Recently, I went to Xi’an with the delegation to investigate methanol production and downstream demand for methanol automobiles and clean fuels. From the survey situation, although methanol prices are low and coal prices are high, many manufacturers are close to the loss point, methanol is difficult to continue to fall, but due to lack of demand power, methanol rise still needs to wait for time to cooperate.

New Growth Point of Methanol Demand: Energy Demand

The new consumption of methanol mainly comes from energy demand, which is in great demand in Xi’an area we investigated. There are two main parts in this respect, methanol automobile and clean fuel.

As for methanol vehicles, on March 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China and other eight departments jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on the Application of Methanol Vehicles in Some Areas, which put forward that the application of M100 methanol vehicles should be accelerated in areas with good resource endowment and operation experience of methanol vehicles, such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Guizhou and Gansu. Shaanxi is expected to invest a total of 20,000 methanol taxis. Now it has invested 7,000 methanol taxis in Xi’an. Now it needs about 100,000 tons of methanol per year, and 300,000 tons after completion. The plan has been running for five months, and three problems have emerged. One is that additives are easy to block the nozzle and cause faults; the other is that it is difficult to ignite by gasoline before converting to methanol; the third is that it is difficult to refuel. Due to government subsidies and other factors, it is impossible to enter CNPC and Sinopec gas stations. Only 20 gas stations in Yanchang Petrochemical Company in the city can add M100 methanol and taxis. There is a serious queue during shift time. But generally speaking, these problems are not insoluble, and they can basically accomplish their tasks in the later stage.

In the aspect of clean fuel, there is a gap in natural gas after coal to gas conversion. At the same time, because there is no pipeline natural gas in many remote areas, liquefied natural gas needs to be used, which has potential safety hazards. Methanol fuel has developed rapidly in recent years. The total annual demand in Xi’an is about 300,000 tons, and the demand in winter is even greater. The national estimate is more than 3 million tons.

Later Focus: When Demand Warms up

On the mainland side, we are concerned about when the demand for new olefin plants will start. Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, 1.8 million tons of coal to methanol has been put into production, but the corresponding 600,000 tons of MTO failed to produce the finished product smoothly due to plant problems, and a large number of takeout methanol hit the market. At the same time, there is news recently that the export of Tang Dynasty Toronto methanol has been reduced, and that the MTP plant has been restarted. Once these two sets of devices start up, the domestic supply-demand relationship will be greatly improved.

On the port side, we should pay attention to inventory changes. At present, the methanol inventory in coastal areas is 912,200 tons, and the total methanol negotiable supply in coastal areas is estimated to be around 265,600 tons. Although it has declined, it is still high compared with 450,000 tons in the same period last year. At the same time, considering that the import arrival volume increased to 470,000 tons (generally 300,000-350,000 tons) in the next two weeks, the port inventory is still under great pressure.

On the downstream side, we should pay attention to whether the price of chemical products has improved. Compared with methanol prices, the recent downstream polypropylene and ethylene glycol continued to decline due to the escalation of trade frictions. Especially ethylene glycol declined the most, and the downstream factories suffered serious losses. Zhejiang Xingxing and Changzhou Fude, two important benchmarking enterprises in East China, both have propylene and ethylene glycol. In this case, it is difficult for enterprises to support the upstream price increase.

Generally speaking, manufacturers generally reflect that downstream demand is generally relatively low except formaldehyde. Traders have a general willingness to receive goods, and the price will be suitable for some parts. Once the price rises, it will be difficult to ship goods. In the short term, prices will rise inexplicably, and producers will mainly digest inventories at low prices. It is possible to improve after the start of construction in Datang and Jiutai. Short-term advice is mainly wait-and-see. In the long run, the price is at the bottom of the range, which can be more light warehouse tests.

As one of the most profitable varieties in the polyester industry chain, PX has attracted much attention in the market. However, with the introduction of new PX production capacity in China, domestic self-sufficiency has improved significantly, and PX profits have officially gone downhill and downhill.

By May 16, 2019, the profit value of naphtha-based PX process line had officially broken through the cost level, reaching – 9.49 US dollars per ton. It had been one and a half years since the last negative profit occurred.

According to monitoring, the peak profit of PX in 2019 was US$305.36 per ton on February 16, and the profit margin of nuclear production of 1 ton of PX products was more than 2,000 RMB. By May 17, the profit value of PX fell to US$18.13 per ton and was in a loss state. From January to February 2019, PTA demand showed strong performance. The effect of domestic PX depot was obvious. The overall price trend was strong, and the profitability was enhanced. Most of the cash flow of the polyester industry chain was depressed in this link.

However, since March, although the overall trend of crude oil has been warmer and naphtha and PX effective cost support has been given, with the launch of Hengli Petrochemical’s two new production capacity of 4.5 million tons of PX (1

Domestic supply and demand patterns and participants’mentality are under significant pressure. PX price has opened a strong unilateral downward trend, and then profit margin has contracted significantly, rapidly falling below the cost level.

Asian PX Device Change Table for the 2nd Quarter

Influenced by the current negative profit situation, the market closely monitors the operation of PX devices in Asia. As shown in the table above, the changes of PX devices in Asia in the second quarter involve a total capacity of 8797,000 tons. Most of the changes are expected to be made at the beginning of the year, not only the accidental parking of Taiwan Chemical Fiber 3# device and Japan JX device, but also the S-oil maintenance in Korea. Interval extension and advance maintenance process in Yishan, Vietnam.

At the same time, concerning the reduction of production, only Qingdao Lidong 1 million tons/year PX plant is expected to reduce the load to 60%, but the specific reduction time has not yet been announced, while the reduction process of Hanhua Chemistry and Lotian Chemistry is still in the planning stage, and the later implementation needs to be tracked.

PX prices in Asia have fallen sharply since March. In addition to the unexpected deterioration of its supply and demand pattern, Hengli Petrochemical has exerted general pressure on market confidence.

Recently, with the outbreak of PX overhaul process in Asia, it is expected that PX price will have a short wave of consolidation. However, its influence may be far less than expected. The PX production line superimposed by Zhejiang Petrochemical Company has been built up. It is expected to reach production in the fourth quarter of this year, and new pressure from Brunei Hengyi Project and Hainan Phase 2 Project will continue to impact the market. Therefore, PX will remain empty in the medium and long term.

The Tariff and Tax Commission of the State Council decided to raise tariff rates on some imports originating in the United States from 10:00 on June 1, 2019. The tax rate shall be implemented in accordance with the Notice of the State Council Tariff and Tax Commission on the imposition of tariffs on some imported goods (the second batch) originating in the United States (the Notice of the Tax Commission [2018] No. 6).

Propylene, propane and other products were not found in the list. After consulting the relevant information, it was found that on August 3, 2018, China imposed tariffs on 5207 imports originating in the United States, involving about 60 billion US dollars in import trade.

Tariffs imposed on propylene and other products are included in the list of tariffs imposed since 12:01 on August 23, 2018, involving about 16 billion US dollars in import trade.

Judging from the current situation, it does not rule out the possibility that China will continue to impose tariffs on American imports. The follow-up commodities are likely to be the first to impose tariffs in 2018, involving about $50 billion in import trade. Among them, propylene, propane and other products are among them. However, for propylene, the direct impact is relatively limited.

From the source of China’s propylene imports in 2018, propylene from Korea accounted for 51% of the total imports, while propylene from Japan and Taiwan accounted for 20% and 19% respectively. The remaining propylene mainly came from Southeast Asia. Propylene imports from the United States are only 29.6 tons, almost negligible. Therefore, even if China imposes tariffs on propylene from the United States, the direct impact is negligible.

However, some upstream and downstream products of propylene may be affected by tariffs, such as propane, polypropylene, acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, acrylic acid and so on. Especially propane, the total import volume is large, and the proportion of imports from the United States is larger, the impact is also expected to be greater.

In recent years, propane dehydrogenation to propylene has developed rapidly in China, and the raw material propyl alkyl is basically dependent on imports. Once the tariff is imposed on propane, the cost of propane dehydrogenation will increase dramatically. At present, the profit margin of propane dehydrogenation is extremely limited. Once the cost rises, the loss will become an inevitable result. Therefore, the impact of tariffs on propylene-related products needs close attention.

Border trade import is an important part of China’s potash fertilizer trade. Recently, it has been reported that both shipping and import of potash fertilizer have entered a period of suspension of negotiations. The potash trade will enter a standby period in June. How much will this affect the price of potash fertilizer in China?

Potassium Fertilizer in Ural Suffered Permeability Accident

Recently, the world’s largest potash manufacturer Ural Potassium Fertilizer’s Solikamsk No. 2 mine has suffered a flooding accident, and the losses are still not assessable. “Ural Potassium Fertilizer Permeability Accident has a greater impact on the international price of potash fertilizer.” Industry insiders in an interview with reporters said that the flooding accident is fatal to the solid potash fertilizer mining area.

Data show that Ural Potassium Fertilizer Company is one of the world’s major potassium fertilizer producers, the company’s potassium fertilizer output accounts for about 20% of the global potassium fertilizer output. The No. 3 mine of Ural Potassium Fertilizer was closed permanently in 1973 because of the flooding accident, and the No. 1 mine was closed permanently in 2006, which also promoted the bull market of potash fertilizer after 2006 to a certain extent.

Industry insiders told reporters that every year China will sign large contracts with Russia, Canada and other potassium-rich countries to transport potassium chloride by sea, and it is the agreed price of the big contract that has the greatest impact on the domestic potassium fertilizer price. The flooding accident will certainly have an impact on next year’s big contract price, and the domestic potash fertilizer price will also be affected accordingly.

It is understood that the supply of potassium fertilizer in China mainly consists of import and domestic components. With the continuous improvement of domestic potassium production capacity, the proportion of imported potassium fertilizer has decreased from 70% to 45%, but imported potassium fertilizer is still an indispensable part of domestic potassium fertilizer supply.

However, professionals believe that the increase in potassium fertilizer prices is still difficult to predict. Specifically, domestic potassium fertilizer prices also depend on market turnover and industry demand.

Border Trade Potassium Fertilizer Import Stagnation

According to reliable sources, China’s border potash fertilizer trade has maintained and continued the spot trading mode of border trade due to the geographical relationship between China and Russia. Especially based on long-term cooperative relationship, the two sides will start the process in mid-May to negotiate the price and quantity of the next month. However, Ural Potassium Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has recently continued to raise its quotation for potash fertilizer in China’s border trade on the basis of May’s price, and is resolute in its attitude. On the contrary, the price trend of potash fertilizer ports in domestic frontier trade broke down more than 150 yuan in late April.

Industry insiders believe that, in view of Ural’s attitude towards reducing potassium fertilizer and maintaining its price, as well as the actual market demand and price of land-borne potassium fertilizer, it is expected that in the short term it will be difficult for both sides to reach a consensus, and that there will be a shortage of potassium fertilizer in border trade from mid-June. Border trade imports will also enter the period of suspension of negotiations historically. This is the first time in the history of importing potash fertilizer from border trade.

It is understood that border trade import is an important part of China’s potash fertilizer trade. It has been accepted by domestic users because of its short cycle and rapid price response. In fact, from some data, it also reflects its active degree in the potash fertilizer market. Since 2005, the import of potassium fertilizer in frontier trade, with Manzhouli as the main port, has gradually become an important supplement to the import of potassium fertilizer in large trade and another important force to guarantee domestic potassium fertilizer supply.

Sources say that the negotiations on the big trade contract, which started in September 2018 and expired in June 2019, have not accelerated due to the approaching, and substantive contacts have also been delayed. At the same time, the difference in expectations between the two sides has led to the suspension of negotiations after the delivery of some routes of goods. Throughout the market situation, domestic frontier trade stopped importing and the number of shipping basically ended. Negotiations on shipping are far away, foreign prices are demanding, and both imports of potash fertilizer have entered a suspension period.

How will the price of potash fertilizer go?

Because of the suspension of negotiations on both shipping and import of potash fertilizer, uncertain negotiation results have kept the price of potash fertilizer stable for the time being. In terms of domestic potassium fertilizer, the production plant of Qinghai Salt Lake Group operates normally, and the implementation price of 60% of the base product of salt lake is 2350 yuan/ton. Customer prices remained stable in all regions. At present, the inventory of powdery, granular and cold crystallization platforms is 28,000 tons, and that of warehouses is 317,000 tons. The total amount of packaged goods that can be sold and shipped is 345,000 tons. Tibetan potassium fertilizer 60% powder price of 2350 yuan/ton, enterprise inventory of about 110,000 tons. The local small factory rate is low, the transaction is relatively cold.

In terms of imported potassium, there are many ports in stock at present. The data show that the port stock of imported potassium is about 2.6 million tons. At present, port potassium imports have begun to fluctuate in a narrow range. Although the quotation of traders is stable, the transaction of new orders is relatively slow, and the real unit price has fallen slightly. The mainstream price of 62% white potassium in Northeast China is around 2350-2380 yuan/ton, and the transaction reference is around 2350 yuan/ton. Russian pink prices range from 2150 to 2200 yuan per ton. There are fewer new potassium fertilizer frontier trade goods in the near future, and the previous quotation is higher. At present, the reference price of 62% Russian-White ports is 2050-2080 yuan/ton, which is 100 yuan/ton lower than that of last month.

In terms of demand for potassium fertilizer, the demand for potassium fertilizer continues to decline after entering the summer market. At present, there is no news of any big contract, but the port potassium fertilizer inventory is much higher than the same period in previous years. After the demand for potassium fertilizer enters the off-season, the raw material purchasing of compound fertilizer manufacturers is limited, and the supply and demand are often one-sided. Industry insiders said that the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of potash fertilizer has been significantly improved, and market prices are now temporarily stable.

First, the price data:

According to the business community’s large list of monitoring data, this week, the domestic bromine market stable operation, the industry as a whole started normal, the average price of bromine in the week remained at about 35000 yuan/ton, up 26.74% from the same period last year.

Ii. Analysis of Causes Products: This week, the domestic bromine market began to maintain a high, enterprise shipments smooth, downstream market in the peak season, the industry’s overall supply and demand two prosperous. In part of the start of enterprises, Rudong Yue Fine chemical Nissan about 5 tons, Shandong Sea Nissan 15 tons or so, Shandong Hai Wang chemical Nissan 20 tons or so, Tianjin haijing Nissan 15 tons or so.

At present, the mainstream quotation of enterprises in 35000 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price to the enterprise negotiations prevail. Industrial chain: This week, the bromine upstream industry is a decline: sulfur market fell 2.05% in the week, the current offer of 956 yuan/ton, caustic soda market in the week slightly soft 1.4%, the current price of 705 yuan/ton or so; Soda Market Week held steady operation, the current price of 1960 yuan/ton around The price of sulfuric acid fell sharply by 8.79% in the week, and is currently quoted at around 207 yuan/ton.

At present, the bromine downstream flame retardant industry is in high season, the demand is better, the bromine price support is good, pharmaceutical agricultural intermediates and other industries performance is stable, buying just need.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society bromine industry analysts believe that the current domestic bromine market enterprises generally normal production, shipping smooth, downstream user demand is stable, the market presents a situation of two prosperity of supply and demand, is currently in abundance of bromine supply, but bromine prices are still high, it is expected that the future period of bromine prices will be stable operation, long-term view will have some downward space.

In recent days, U Khaing Myint, secretary of the Burmese Association of Rubber Growers and producers (MRPPA), said the country’s rubber production had grown rapidly this year, with exports expected to reach 300,000 tonnes, surpassing the government’s previous estimate of 260,000 tonnes. Mr Myint said the area of rubber plantations in Myanmar had been steadily increasing and would reach the maximum output in the coming years. Some 800,000 acres of land are currently active in the production of glue in Myanmar, which led to a 56% increase in rubber exports in 2017.

However, only 8% of locally produced rubber is used for domestic consumption, while the remaining rubber is used for export, of which 70% is exported to China.

Currently, Thailand remains the world’s largest producer of rubber, with an annual output of about 4.6 million tonnes, followed by Indonesia (annual output of 2.4 million tons) and Malaysia (annual output of 2.2 million tons). Myint said that international rubber demand is now rising, the government wants to promote Myanmar as a major exporter of rubber, its export strategy is to actively promote the export of rubber and rubber products, thereby boosting total exports and narrowing the trade deficit. The country is planning to establish a central market for trade in rubber at the seaport Centre in Mawlamyiang, southern.

May 23, the rare earth index was 381 points, up 17 points from yesterday, down 61.9% from 1000 at the highest point in the cycle (2011-12-06), up 271 from its lowest point of 40.59% on September 13, 2015.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date). The average price of metal neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 52500 yuan/ton to 440,000 yuan/ton, the average price of dysprosium metal was 2.275 million yuan/ton, and the average price of metal praseodymium was 690,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides increased by 30000 yuan/ton to 335,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide prices increased by 30,000 yuan/ton to 1.955 million yuan/ton; the average of oxidized praseodymium was 355,000 yuan/ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide increased by 30000 yuan/ton to 330,000 yuan/ton.

The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy in rare earth alloy increased by 55000 yuan/ton to 450,000 yuan/ton; the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 30,000 yuan/ton to 1.955 million yuan/ton. Recent Rare earth field prices rose sharply, domestic rare earth market trading market improved, rare earth market most commodity prices higher, heavy rare earth dysprosium terbium varieties affected by Myanmar Mine import restrictions, market participants on the price of medium-heavy rare earths, holding merchants reluctant, dysprosium terbium prices rose sharply, coupled with Praseodymium Neodymium series of products market trend in general, The supply of the field is normal, rare earth prices in the recent trend of rise. Rare Earth market price shock is related to environmental inspectors nationwide, rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation harm to make environmental protection supervision become more stringent. In the environmental protection of strict inspection, a number of provinces rare earth separation enterprises have been discontinued, resulting in the general rare earth oxide market delivery, the recent rare earth market to the seller’s markets, manufacturers reasonable control of sales, reluctant sentiment is strong. In particular, some mainstream rare earth oxides, supply performance tension, rare earth market price trend rise, the recent field of large enterprise groups have reluctant sentiment, rare earth market improve, but the price of products are also carefully watched by manufacturers.

The recent decline in rare earth imports, domestic enterprises reluctant, the rare earth market part of the price rose sharply. Recently, the state Environmental Protection Department strict investigation efforts, the impact on the rare earth industry is greater, rare earth industry started low, the market is cold.

Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document on rare Earth black, because the regulatory effect is becoming increasingly apparent, rare earth industry upstream raw ore resources supply shrinkage, rare earth industry trading market to go well. Business Society Rare Earth analysts expect the recent domestic environmental protection is not reduced, coupled with the domestic order of the rare earth industry rectification, Myanmar to restrict exports, supply reduction, the rare earth industry has a certain positive support, rare Earth products are expected to rise expectations.

Adani, India’s largest power coal importer, recently predicted a pick-up in India’s power coal imports in 2019 and could maintain strong growth momentum over the next 10 years as Adani in India’s domestic coal is in short supply, Bloomberg reported. Vinay Prakash, chief executive of Adani Coal and mining, said in an interview that India’s coal imports in the new fiscal year are expected to reach 184 million tonnes, up 11% per cent from April 1 this year, while annual imports of overseas coal are expected to rise to 200 million tonnes over the next 10 years.

He said consumers in India’s coastal areas would also prefer imported coal because of higher domestic coal transport costs.

Meanwhile, Vinay Prakash points out that the group plans to build 1600 megawatts of coal-fired power plants in the eastern state of Chalkhand, which will be a major destination for Adani’s coal production in the Galilee Basin, Australia. In fact, in order to reduce the external dependence of coal, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi previously asked state-owned mining companies Coal India to increase domestic coal production, India’s imports of coal has declined for years.

However, demand for coal in India has recently picked up, and imports of coal have begun to rebound amid insufficient domestic coal production and limited capacity in India. According to Bloomberg, India has long relied heavily on coal-fired power generation, and although other markets around the world have gradually shifted to renewable energy, India’s coal demand will bring a lifeline to global coal exporters.

International oil prices fell sharply 22nd, among other factors, including continued significant gains in U.S. crude inventories last week.

New York’s light crude oil futures price hit its biggest one-day drop in nearly three weeks. By the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in July fell by $1.71 to 2.71%, closing at $61.42 per barrel, the lowest closing price since May 13.

The price of Brent crude oil futures in London, which was delivered in July, fell 1.19 dollars, closing at $70.99 per barrel, or 1.65%. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose significantly for the second week in a row last week, up 4.7 million barrels to 476.8 million barrels, 4% higher than the nearly 5-year average, according to data released 22nd by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By contrast, analysts had previously expected an average reduction of 2 million barrels of crude oil inventories for the week, according to a Standard & amp; Poor’s global Platts survey. Last week, U.S. gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels a month, distilled oil increased by 800,000 barrels, and propane and propylene inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels.

Including commercial crude oil, refined oil, propane and propylene, U.S. commercial oil inventories rose sharply by 16.8 million barrels a year last week, up from 14.6 million barrels a week earlier. The data showed that last week the United States imported 6.9 million barrels of crude oil, a year-on-quarter decline of 669,000 barrels, refinery daily crude oil processing volume of 16.6 million barrels, a reduction of 98,000 barrels, the refinery start rate of 89.9%, lower than the previous week 90.5%.

Last week’s average U.S. crude oil production remained high at 12.2 million barrels, up from 12.1 million barrels in the previous week. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Brinkley Data, said: “Despite the sharp drop in crude oil imports, the number of crude oil refineries in the United States is below the annual average, prompting crude oil inventories to grow for the second week in a row. U.S. crude inventories have increased by more than 37 million barrels over the past nine weeks, an increase of as much as 8.5%. Smith added: “Domestic crude oil production in the United States has increased again, while the United States has once again released strategic reserve crude oil, this time released 1.2 million barrels.” All of these factors have driven the rise in U.S. crude oil inventories.

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Ole Hansen, head of global commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Denmark, said renewed tensions in the Middle East and a possible OPEC deal to cut production could not lead to a breakthrough in international oil prices, owing to growing concerns about trade tensions affecting global economic growth and the continued strength of the dollar. Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil brokerage, said changes in U.S.-Iran relations and the global trade situation could cause international oil prices to fluctuate by about $10 trillion amid a fragile balance in the oil market. Phil Flynn22, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said the recent rise in crude oil inventories would be a thing of the past because of tight supply and demand for oil products and the refinery’s need to increase processing volumes sooner or later.

Oil prices in Asia 20th jumped after OPEC+ Member States expressed interest in continuing to cut production this year, according to the Oil and Gas yearbook in London on May 20. U.S. WTI crude futures rose 1.3% to $63.75 trillion/barrel as of 12:20 Eastern time (04:20 GMT).

International Brent crude oil futures rose 1.4% per cent to $73.20 trillion/barrel.

19th (Khalid Al Falih), Saudi energy minister, has said OPEC members have reached a “moderate” consensus to push down crude oil inventories, but the Saudis will still respond to demand for “fragile markets.”

It comes after OPEC decided to cut oil supplies by 1.2 million barrels a day for the first six months of 2019, leading to a 40% per cent rise in oil prices so far this year. At a news conference after OPEC and other producers met, Mr Falih said “the second half priority is to maintain production management and allow inventories to dwindle gradually, but certainly to decline towards normal levels.”

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Meanwhile, Mazuru, energy Secretary of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told reporters that maintaining a production reduction strategy was not the “right decision.” In the end, OPEC will make a formal decision on production cuts on June 25.