Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, on August 19, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7150 yuan/ton, and on August 23, PET water bottle manufacturers quoted 7100 yuan/ton. The overall price fell by 0.7%. This week, the price of PET continued to fall.

II. Cause Analysis

Product aspect: This week, polyester plant starts to rebound and inventory falls back. Influenced by the fall of PTA price of upstream raw materials, the spot price of PET fell with the market. The downstream enterprises are in a wait-and-see atmosphere, just need to purchase, the market turnover is general, and the price center of the manufacturer is down. Macroeconomic climate is bad, raw material end maintenance equipment is gradually restored, market supply is sufficient, market promotion is not strong, temporarily no good support, PET manufacturers yield, quotation fell, as of August 23, the mainstream price range of PET water bottle manufacturers is 6950-7100 yuan/ton.

Raw Material: Recent (August 19 – August 23) spot market price of PTA raw material has dropped slightly. Recent PTA supply side has restarted a number of devices, which has suppressed prices and insufficient cost side support. At the same time, the start-up rate of raw material ethylene glycol plant was stable, the port inventory was reduced, and the price of Lido ethylene glycol rose slightly by 1.46%, and the operation was reorganized. Material end support is general, PET prices continue to be weak consolidation, the overall decline of 3.4%, the overall market consolidation of the industrial chain is the main.

Industry: On August 23, the rubber and plastic index was 674 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 36.42% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 17.01% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week, commodity market is mainly narrow consolidation, the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry is weak downward.

3. Future Market Forecast

PET analysts believe that: in the near future, there is no obvious advantage in terms of cost, insufficient cost support for the market, continued weak downstream demand, strong wait-and-see atmosphere of manufacturers, pressure drop of PET market, but the decline space is limited. It is expected that the broad fluctuation of PET market will dominate in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was 1676.67 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, down 21.04% from the same period last year. On August 23, the light soda commodity index was 85.98, which was the same as yesterday. It was 27.05% lower than the peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21) in the cycle and 36.15% higher than the low of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market is weak and stable, manufacturers have sufficient orders, the current domestic mainstream light soda factory price is 1520-1700 yuan/ton; domestic heavy soda mainstream to the terminal price is 1700-1850 yuan/ton, this week, the heavy soda market changes little, manufacturers shipment situation is relatively smooth, the market stock is bullish. It is expected that some manufacturers will implement the end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: the downstream cryolite plant is running normally at present, the factory stock is sufficient and pressure-free, the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable; the price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week, the overall market is still depressed, the cost of raw materials continues to depress, the upstream and downstream trading entities are cautious in buying and selling as a whole, and the downstream trading entities are watching. Attitude is strong, domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices continued to operate at a low level this week. This week, the downstream glass market continued to rise, with a slight increase. The orders of downstream processing enterprises did not change significantly. There was a slight increase in the north, market demand was better, and TRADERS’enthusiasm for stock-up increased slightly.

Industry: This week the soda market reorganization operation is the main, soda manufacturers start-up load is not high, overhaul manufacturers increase, supply reduction, soda manufacturers maintain low inventory. Demand downstream is flat, and end users and some traders are generally motivated to get goods.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the domestic light alkali market has been running steadily, the number of maintenance manufacturers has increased, the supply of goods has decreased, and the inventory of soda manufacturers has remained low. It is expected that the soda market will run steadily in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

On August 22, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, down 0.22 points from yesterday, down 15.71% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price has a downward trend. The average domestic fluorite price is 3068.75 yuan/ton as of 22. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant in the field started normally, the fluorite supply in the field was sufficient, the hydrofluoric acid price in the downstream was lower recently. For the fluorite market, the market price of fluorite was purchased on demand, and the market price of fluorite was lower. The trend is declining. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream receipt is poor, resulting in a decline in market prices. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3000 yuan/ton as of 22 th, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2900-3200 yuan/ton.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite is declining. As of 22 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 1180 yuan/ton. The decline of market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, and the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only declined but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16500-18000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Overall, the downstream industry is slightly lower, coupled with sufficient supply of fluorite market, the downstream refrigerant industry demand is not good, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower.

The overall starting rate of potassium sulphate in China is about 60%. Mannheim’s factory is under the pressure of high price potassium chloride. The cost pressure is high. At present, the 50% powder factory price is more than 2850-2900 yuan/ton. The 52% potassium sulphate content is slightly better. The factory price is more than 3000-3050 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is based on the order quantity of downstream factories. One discussion is the main one.

Potassium sulphate quoted by CITIC is 52% powder 3150 yuan/ton, and 52% powder is out of warehouse 2750-2800 yuan/ton. Qinghai water and salt system 50% powder mainstream outbound arrival quotation 2550-2600 yuan/ton; Ningqin Mannheim 50% powder factory quotation 2700 yuan/ton, a single discussion.

Potassium sulfate Market is mainly stable. Prices remained firm in the face of tight overall market supply. At present, the low price supply of powdered potassium sulfate in Qinghai water-salt system has restrained the high market price to some extent, and the mainstream arrival quotation is 2550-2600 yuan.

The price of Mannheim potassium sulfate is basically stable. The mainstream factory price of 50% of the powder is 2800-3100 yuan, and the factory price of 52% of the powder is 3000-3200 yuan. The price in South China is higher. Mannheim potassium sulfate by-product hydrochloric acid high-end paste 80-100 yuan, individual low-end paste about 200 yuan.

The market of potassium sulfate is stable, the demand of compound fertilizer production in autumn is mainly chlorinated, the new unit quantity of potassium sulfate is reduced, and the preferential promotion is expected to relax slightly. At present, the supply of raw material potassium chloride frontier trade in Northeast China is tight, and the Mannheim plant in the region is conservatively operated under the influence of normalization of environmental protection and security inspection; the mainstream factory quotation of 50% powder in Liaoji is 2800-2850 yuan/ton, grain/52% powder 2900-3000 yuan/ton, round particle 3150-3200 yuan/ton, and the preferential price is mainly a single discussion.

On August 21, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price has maintained stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate plant is running smoothly, and is in the off-season of downstream demand. The ammonium nitrate manufacturer’s shipment quotation is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, combined with the impact of environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China has stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturer has limited start-up, and the on-site price. Maintain a low level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 1950-2050 yuan/ton, Shandong was 1900-2000 yuan/ton, and Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate was maintained. Keep oscillating.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in China has declined. As of 21, the market price was 1610 yuan/ton. The price of nitric acid in China has fallen, which has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Jiangsu mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1620 yuan/ton, Shandong manufacturers quoted 1620 yuan/ton. The decline of nitric acid prices has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has maintained a low level. The market turnover is still acceptable. The market price of liquid ammonia is 3200 yuan/ton. The upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, most of the manufacturers’inventory pressure has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and the local ammonia supply in the region has increased. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most of the manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia, while the manufacturers in the northern region have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton and 2500-2600 yuan/ton in Northwest China. The low level of liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to decline slightly later.

According to today’s oil price report, OPEC believes that the oil demand outlook is “somewhat pessimistic” for the next time in 2019, although in the short term, supply is still tight.

In the latest report, OPEC only slightly lowered its forecast for global oil demand to 1.1 million barrels a day in 2019. This estimate may ultimately be too optimistic. OPEC said the forecast was “subject to downside risks arising from uncertainties in global economic development”.

It is noteworthy that OPEC said that global oil production could grow by 19.7 billion barrels a day this year, far exceeding demand growth. However, production growth in the United States, Brazil, Thailand and Norway was lower than expected, reducing the figure by 72,000 barrels per day compared with previous estimates.

OPEC said another worrying sign was that oil inventories in OECD member countries increased by 31.8 million barrels in June from last month, above the five-year average to 67 million barrels. In other words, just as OPEC + convened a meeting to extend the cut-off period for another nine months, inventories were rising, suggesting that the market was oversupply.

There is a slightly optimistic news for OPEC, which has increased daily crude oil demand by 100,000 barrels in 2019 and 2020. However, OPEC said demand for its oil would drop from 30.7 million barrels a day this year to 29.4 million barrels a day in 2020.

Based on these figures, if no further action is taken, OPEC will face a serious oversupply next year. The organization either risked another downturn in the market by sticking to current production levels or further cutting production.

What happened next was largely out of OPEC’s control. Recent fluctuations in oil prices are almost entirely the result of changes in people’s perceptions of the global economy. Commerzbank said in a report on Friday: “The oil market continues to fluctuate and oil prices remain volatile. After Wednesday’s sharp fall, Brent crude oil (Thursday) suffered another heavy blow, falling more than 3% in a few hours. At present, oil prices are still subject to global economic expectations and are in the midst of economic worries and hopes that trade disputes may soon end.

Retail sales data released on Friday in the United States eased some pessimism, but the global situation remained worrying, with data released around the world continuing to point in a negative direction. Just last week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve reversed, Argentina’s stock market and currency collapsed, oil prices fluctuated, and there was widespread concern about a global recession.

Although most recent data are healthy, the United States is not immune. For example, in recent weeks, Wall Street analysts have sharply lowered their expectations for third-quarter earnings. “In April and early May, almost everyone felt that the economy would be better in the first half of this year and that international trade tensions would be resolved, at least not escalated,” Mark Costa, CEO of Eastman Chemical, said at a conference call on earnings last month. Now we are in a completely different situation. I don’t think there are many signs of economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Ultimately, the United States will find it hard to escape the effects of the global economic slowdown. The World Trade Organization (WTO) painted a bleak picture for the third quarter, saying that trade volume “may continue to be weak”. The global auto industry has also been hit hard this year, with auto sales in India and Germany shrinking sharply. The U.S. auto industry is also beginning to show some signs of tension.

The problem with oil prices is that with supply growth outpacing demand, the outlook for 2020 is already quite pessimistic – that’s the basic picture. But the likelihood of a recession continues to grow, which could worsen the oversupply.

On August 21, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.10, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.47% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 17.93% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic market price fluctuation of phthalic anhydride, price fluctuation of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China, downstream factories maintaining just in need of purchase, factory inventory pressure, high-end transaction hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5300-5400 yuan/ton. The quotation ranges from 5700 to 5800 yuan/ton, the market price remains volatile, the quotation of enterprises is temporarily stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is mainly volatile.

In the near future, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6000 yuan/ton. The import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has fallen, the quotation is stable, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is general, the port stock is low, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outside market has fallen concussively, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the factual details are discussed in detail, Market prices remain low and volatile. Downstream DOP price shocks fell, isooctanol price shocks fell, DOP costs fell. DOP prices fell, DOP downstream demand shocks remained stable, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market shocks remained stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price of about 7300 yuan/ton, downstream prices slightly lower, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will maintain the trend of shocks.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average ex-factory price of sulphur market in East China is 746.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.48%. On August 20, the sulphur commodity index was 40.97, down 2.38 points from yesterday, down 60.55% from 103.84 points in the cycle (2011-11-02), and up 17.46% from 34.88 points on October 23, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic sulphur market prices have been sharply lowered, downstream demand performance is still weak, terminal purchasing enthusiasm is weak, lack of information guidance, refineries in various regions continue to downward price adjustment, the mainstream price of solid sulphur in East China market is around 680-740 yuan/ton, liquid sulphur is 50 yuan/ton, the mainstream price is 610-730 yuan/ton. About 40-70 yuan/ton for solid sulfur in Shandong market, 780 yuan/ton for solid sulfur, 620-700 yuan/ton for liquid sulfur, 40 yuan/ton for solid sulfur in North China market, 610-660 yuan/ton for solid sulfur and 580-620 yuan/ton for liquid sulfur.

Industry chain: The vulnerable sorting of sulphur market continues to decline, the vulnerable sorting of acid Market downstream, coexistence of high land prices, contradictions between supply and demand on the site remain, both buyers and sellers are cautious to trade, business mentality is not good, the market is not supported by substantive good news for the time being, it is expected that prices will be low or downward.

Industry: From the demand point of view, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, it is difficult to change. Domestic port inventory is high, market turnover is still cold, real information is scarce, port storage consumption is slow, buyers and sellers wait for information guidance. Domestic sulphur market continued to decline, downstream demand has not improved, the industry for the future look at the atmosphere is strong.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market lacks information guidance, no substantive positive factors, downstream demand has not improved for the time being, industry cautious wait-and-see, expected short-term sulfur market or continued weak consolidation.

On August 20, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 103.72, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.14% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 93.54% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable on August 20. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 11 430 yuan/ton, and the domestic starting rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot at present, and the recent on-site shopping situation is general. Recently, due to poor downstream demand, part of hydrofluoric acid is in short supply. Manufacturers cut prices slightly, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined, spot supply is normal, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

The price of fluorite in the upstream slightly declined. As of the 20th day, the price of fluorite was 3068.75 yuan/ton. The downward price of raw materials in the upstream had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable. The downstream refrigerant product plant starts at a low level. The demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is poor. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products fluctuates. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the stable operation of soda ash this week is dominant. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was 1676.67 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, down 21.04% from the same period last year. The light soda commodity index on August 16 was 85.98, which was the same as yesterday. It was 27.05% lower than the cyclical peak of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 36.15% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic soda price maintained stable operation, the market is weak and stable, manufacturers have sufficient orders, the current domestic mainstream light soda factory price is 1520-1700 yuan/ton; domestic heavy soda mainstream to the terminal price is 1700-1850 yuan/ton, this week, the heavy soda market changes little, manufacturers shipment situation is relatively smooth, the market stock is bullish. It is expected that some manufacturers will implement the end-of-month pricing.

Industry chain: the downstream cryolite plant is running normally at present, the factory stock is sufficient and pressure-free, and the ex-factory quotation is temporarily stable; the price of sodium pyrosulfite continues to run at the bottom this week, the overall market is still depressed, the cost of raw materials continues to be depressed, the main body of upstream and downstream trade is cautious, and some enterprises are to protect it. Goods continued to focus on sodium sulfite market prices, domestic sodium pyrosulfite market prices continued to operate at a low level this week. This week, downstream glass market performance is relatively strong, downstream processing enterprises orders are rising steadily, with the arrival of the traditional sales season, traders actively follow up the stock.

Industry: Affected by typhoon this week, soda factory start-up load is not high, slightly decreased, downstream demand is flat, no obvious improvement, end users and some traders are generally motivated to get goods.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the domestic light alkali market has been running steadily, the number of maintenance manufacturers has increased, the supply of goods has decreased, and the inventory of soda manufacturers has remained low. It is expected that the soda market will run steadily in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.