According to the data of business agency, as of November 20, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3637.50 yuan / ton (including tax), a slight increase of 1.39% compared with the beginning of the week.

On November 20, the fuel oil commodity index was 73.67, up 1.01 points compared with yesterday, 36.44% lower than 115.91 points (October 17, 2018), and 59.87% higher than 46.08 points, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, as of November 20, the self raised low sulfur price of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan, 3700 yuan / ton in 120 CST, 3750 yuan / ton in Shanghai and 3850 yuan / ton in 120 CST.

International crude oil prices rose sharply this week, supporting fuel oil prices. WTI crude oil closed at $41.90/barrel on the 20th, up 4.41% from $40.13/barrel at the beginning of the week, according to business agency monitoring.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased from the previous week, forming a certain support for fuel oil. It is understood that as of November 18, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, decreased by 1044000 barrels to 22.02million barrels, a nine week low; light distillate stocks including naphtha, gasoline and reformate oil decreased by 918000 barrels to 12.434 million barrels, a three-week low; and medium distillate stocks decreased by 492000 barrels to 16.093 million barrels, a two-week low low point.

Aftermarket forecast: the energy analysts of the business agency believe that the fuel oil 180CST raw material cost increases due to the seasonal impact, which forms a certain support for the fuel oil market. Overall, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable and upward in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic refiners’ petroleum coke products dropped slightly. At the beginning of the week, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1684.00 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke at weekend was 1653.50 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 1.81% and increasing by 61.16% compared with last year. On November 20, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 128.61, down 1.2 points compared with yesterday, 17.34% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 92.27% higher than 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The decline in the price of petroleum coke is mainly due to increased supply. The supply of low sulfur coke is less, the demand is stable and the price is rising. Compared with medium and high sulfur coke, the operating rate of coking unit increased, the supply increased, the downstream demand was general, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke decreased.

Upstream: the overseas epidemic situation is still serious, and the international crude oil market demand is not good; however, there are also good news that OPEC will prolong the production reduction, the US shale oil production will decrease, and the development of new crown vaccine will accelerate. The international crude oil price fluctuates upward, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 5.71% and Brent crude oil price increasing by 5.10% weekly.

Downstream: affected by environmental factors in heating season, the carbon market is facing a reduction in production in the near future, and the price rise of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream has supported carbon enterprises. Due to the decrease of production and the increase of furnace shutdown in southern China, the social supply of silicon metal market has gradually decreased, and the price may rise steadily. At present, coal production in China will be limited as the end of the year. However, in the winter heating season, the power plant still needs to replenish the thermal coal, and the short-term steam coal price is still expected to rise.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 46 th week (11.16-11.20) of 2020, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the energy sector, with WTI crude oil (4.41%), Brent crude oil (3.32%) and MTBE (2.80%). There were 5 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products of decline were liquefied natural gas (- 5.34%), petroleum coke (- 1.81%) and liquefied gas (- 1.80%). This week, all rose or fell 0.41%.

According to the petroleum coke analysts of the business agency, the demand for petroleum coke has been reduced due to the start-up and resumption of production of early-stage inspection and repair plants, the continuous increase of petroleum coke supply, and the influence of downstream environmental protection and other factors. It is comprehensively predicted that the petroleum coke price will maintain a weak stable trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber decreased slightly this week. As of November 20, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5738 yuan / ton, down 0.34% compared with November 14, and 17.05% lower than that on November 14. In the futures market, on November 20, the staple short fiber Futures (2105) closed up at 6006, up 50% or 0.84% from last Friday. Crude oil and PTA rebound driven futures rebound, downstream demand fell, spot trend weak.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: domestic PTA spot market rebounded slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3273 yuan / ton, which was 1.36% higher than last Friday and 30.95% lower than that of last Friday. Crude oil prices rose on news that OPEC may postpone the current production reduction to the first quarter of next year. PTA prices rose in a narrow range driven by the rise of crude oil.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market dropped slightly this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3634 yuan / ton, down 1.77% and 23.1% compared with last Friday. Supply rebounded due to the addition of domestic units and the restart of maintenance units. At the same time, the downstream chemical fiber market gradually into the off-season, production and sales fall. Ethylene glycol in the experience of a month after the decline of the stock again, the price drop is expected to strengthen.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. At the end of this week, the average price of 32S polyester yarn spot market in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.03%. The yarn Market in Hangzhou, Suzhou and Jiaxing is generally good. Some enterprises lowered their prices and their profit margins were low. The downstream weaving Market is ready for the new year, but the demand is insufficient in the later stage, and polyester yarn is in a weak position.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the downstream spinning and weaving Market in the end of the “double 11″ market and the aggravation of the overseas epidemic situation, domestic and foreign orders have decreased, polyester staple fiber spot market is difficult to have a good market in the short term, and the future market may continue to decline in a weak way. It is expected that before the Spring Festival, the polyester industry chain as a whole will remain weak. However, the current crude oil, PTA positive news rebound, short fiber futures short-term or strong oscillation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has been rising continuously after stabilizing this week, with the weekly low price of 6892 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, the weekly high price of 7033 yuan / ton at the weekend, and the weekly increase of 2.04%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, since November 1, the propylene price has dropped sharply at the end of October, and has risen by 200-250 yuan / ton on the 5th. After a short period of stabilization, the price dropped slightly by about 100 yuan / ton on August 8 and 9, and then stabilized again. On the 12th, it rose 50 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated slightly. On the 19th, it showed a trend of full increase, rising by 50-100 yuan / ton, and again today Generally, the price is raised by about 100 yuan / ton, and the current market turnover is between 6980 yuan / ton and 7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of the manufacturer is controllable and the shipment situation is ideal.

On November 19, crude oil prices fell slightly, with little impact on propylene.

PP spot price continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 3.77%. The futures market was also relatively ideal, which had a positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose significantly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 7.98%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market continued to rise sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 9.02%, which also had a more obvious positive effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin recovered and stabilized after a small drop this week, with a weekly increase of 3.47% and a weekly amplitude of 5.41%, which had a small positive impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise sharply, and the weekly increase was as high as 15.81%, which had a good effect on propylene.

Octanol market rose significantly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 5.31%, which had a positive impact on propylene.

This week, isopropanol market also continued to rise sharply, with a weekly increase of 18.75%, which also had a good effect on propylene.

This week, phenol in East China still showed a ladder upward trend, with a weekly increase of 6.92%, which had a certain pulling effect on propylene.

This week, East China acetone also continued to rise sharply, with a weekly increase of 16.31%, which also had a more obvious effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: in a comprehensive view, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is controllable, the crude oil price is slightly up and down, and the downstream market is relatively ideal, and the rising trend is obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in the near future.

Market trend of magnesium market in 2020

On November 20, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run weakly and stably, with the overall range of 13000-13600 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is mainly discussed.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 13300-13400 yuan / ton; that in Taiyuan area is 13400-13500 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 13500-13600 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 13350-13400 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

Trading improvement & cost rise

At present, the market trading is improving, the downstream rigid demand procurement is increasing, and the demand side is improving. Although the export side of the shipment is not good, domestic market supply and demand in the face of magnesium price support in the near future.

In terms of cost, recently affected by weather and raw material prices, magnesium enterprises in mainstream production areas are willing to raise prices. In addition, since the middle of March this year, the prices of competitive aluminum ingots have been rising, and the prices of magnesium and aluminum have been hanging upside down for a long time. The cost performance ratio of magnesium alloys has increased compared with the previous period, and the downstream demand has slightly improved.

This week, some manufacturers raised their prices. Near the end of the month, some magnesium ingot manufacturers’ demand for fund withdrawal increased, and the increase rate is expected to slow down.

According to the data of business agency, the spot price of gold on November 20 was 391.20 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.56% compared with the average price of 397.40 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (11.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year, up 14.21%; the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 17.92%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver was 448 yuan/ G, down 12.68%.

On November 20, the average silver market price was 5016 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.39% compared with the early average price of 4947.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (November 1); the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01) was 4376.33 yuan / kg, an increase of 14.62%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 70.46%; compared with the peak value (8.11) of the year, the spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg , down 25.23%.

The price of precious metals is weak and stable

The positive news brought by the new crown vaccine brought a sharp drop in the risk aversion sentiment of the market, and the price of precious metals fluctuated in the first ten days of November. At present, the risk preference of capital in the market is on the rise. Other domestic markets, such as stock market and futures market, have a significant unilateral upward trend, and the price of precious metals is under more pressure.

Since the peak value of precious metal prices in the middle and early August, some profit-making funds have fallen into safety, and the investment enthusiasm has actually begun to slow down. The current round of Dayang market driven by investment demand has started to divert. It is expected that if there is no sudden situation in the near future, it is difficult to re gather the long sentiment, and the price probability rate of precious metal will continue to maintain a weak and stable operation.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China on November 18 was 1800 yuan / ton, up 11.34% from 1616 yuan / ton last week.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100-2200 yuan / ton, which was 450-550 yuan / ton higher than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1900 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, with an increase of 250 yuan / ton compared with last week; Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1530 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, dilute nitric acid The price of nitric acid is 680 yuan / ton, and the price of concentrated nitric acid is flat compared with last week; the quotation of concentrated nitric acid of Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that of last week; the nitric acid market is in good demand, and nitric acid parking in some areas leads to tight supply of nitric acid products market.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province at the beginning of this week was 2960 yuan / ton, which was 2983 yuan / ton on January 18, up 0.79%; the average market price of aniline at the beginning of this week was 6633 yuan / ton, and the average price on November 18 was 6800 yuan / ton, up 2.51 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid supply is tight, nitric acid analysts of business agency predict that the price will rise mainly.

Trend analysis

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week the cobalt price fell sharply, the cobalt Market weakened. As of November 19, the cobalt price was 2633333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.56% from 267500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (November 16).

Trend of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price fell sharply this week, and the international cobalt market declined, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market, and the downward pressure on domestic cobalt price increased.

New energy vehicle market in Europe

According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturing Association (AECA), in October 2020, the registered number of new energy vehicles in major European countries (Germany, France, Britain and other eight countries) reached 119000, a year-on-year increase of + 202% and a slight decrease of 8% month on month. Norway, the United Kingdom, Italy and other countries in October had a significant decline in sales. The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in Europe slowed down, the favorable support of European new energy vehicle market to the international cobalt market was weakened, and the domestic cobalt price was not driven enough.

Market Overview

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, the price of cobalt in the LME market fell this week, while the price of international cobalt fell. The demand for global cobalt market was low and the support of international cobalt market was insufficient. The weakening of the international cobalt Market dragged down the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price fluctuated and fell.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 19th, the nickel price dropped slightly. The spot nickel price was 118400 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day, 4.1% higher than the beginning of the year, and 4.16% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel’s main market opened at 116380 yuan. After the opening, the price first suppressed and then rose, closing at 116470 yuan, up 0.16%. LME3 nickel closed at US $15765, up 0.06%.

2、 Market analysis

On the supply side, domestic nickel ore was tight, and nickel sulfate consumption improved. In October, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 104.5% year-on-year, and the supply of stainless steel was sufficient. Indonesia’s ferronickel construction step by step, there will be an increase in supply in the future. Nickel iron supply has a loose trend, stainless steel production remains high, consumption performance is flat, forming upward pressure on prices. In the first nine months of this year, the global nickel market oversupplied by 50000 tons, while the global demand decreased by 169 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. The market is oversupply and nickel price is up against resistance.

3、 Future prospects

Aftermarket forecast: nickel ore supply is still tight, stainless steel prices fell sharply, short-term nickel prices are expected to maintain a weak shock operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on November 19, the average price of domestic LNG was 3416.67 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from the previous day, 9.29% from the beginning of the month, 14.27% month on month, and 22.93% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic LNG market entered a downward trend in November, showing a continuous downward trend since the beginning of the month. On the 19th, it fell by 2.66%, and the price in many places was about 50-150 yuan. Domestic LNG opened a downward channel. This round of decline is mainly due to the rapid price rise in the early stage, insufficient follow-up on the demand side, and the emergence of downstream resistance psychology. Some end users prefer alternative energy sources, and their enthusiasm for LNG procurement has decreased. Many liquid plants are not able to deliver goods smoothly, and the price continues to fall. In the middle and north of China, the overall heating and raw gas auction are not expected to be favorable. At the same time, due to the emergency response to heavy polluted weather in some areas such as Hebei and Henan, industrial users have reduced production and the demand has continued to decline. In addition, cold air strikes, rain and snow weather affect logistics, and manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of November 19, the price dropped significantly compared with that of the previous trading day. The average price in Inner Mongolia was around 3360 yuan / ton, falling by 50-230 yuan / ton. The average price in Shaanxi was around 3500 yuan / ton, falling by 50-160 yuan / ton. The average price in Shanxi was around 3820 yuan / ton, falling by 50-150 yuan / ton. In Xinjiang, the average price was around 3380 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton In Ningxia, the average price was around 3440 yuan / ton, down about 100 yuan / ton, while in Sichuan, the average price was around 3550 yuan / ton.

Regional specification quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia LNG 3200-3600 November 19

Shaanxi LNG 3400-3600 November 19

Xinjiang LNG 2900-3600 November 19

Ningxia LNG 3350-3420 November 19

November 19-3500 natural gas in Shanxi

Sichuan LNG 3480-4200 November 19

After the adjustment of methanol price, the price of methanol increased by about 50 yuan / day, and some domestic enterprises reduced the price of methanol. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 1882 yuan / ton on November 1 and 2115 yuan / ton on November 19 in Shandong. The price cycle increased by 12.35%, and the price rose by 9.59% month on month and 1.78% year on year. Affected by the weather in some areas, there is no quotation for shutdown and maintenance of the device. At present, the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term.

Urea, in the late November, the market price of urea in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of the business club believe that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industry is still enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the industrial demand is to be purchased on demand. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate and rise slightly.

Due to the high price of liquid chlorine as raw material, the cost of dichloromethane production enterprises is high. In addition, the lower rigid demand is flat, the enterprise starts to decline, the market supply is reduced, and a small number of downstream banks are replenished on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong is about 3070-3170 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu Liwen is about 3700 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 3050 yuan / ton.

Ethylene, current crude oil: OPEC members tend to postpone the plan to increase daily crude oil production in January, and the international oil price rose to the highest level since early September on Wednesday. Therefore, business agency data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: at present, the favorable expectations are insufficient, many places are affected by heavy pollution weather emergency response and other factors, the industrial demand continues to decline, in addition to the cold air attack, rain and snow weather affecting logistics, manufacturers’ shipment may continue to be under pressure, and the domestic LNG market is expected to run weakly.