According to the data of the business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market on November 25 was 16126.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.65% compared with the average price of 14696.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1), 10.81% higher than the average market price at the beginning of the year (January 1) 14553.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 43.52% compared with the valley value of the average market price in the year (March 24).
The price of aluminum ingots rose by 25% in the early period of January.
“Aluminum” city in spring and Autumn
1. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum moves down to low level
According to statistical data, as of November 19, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt) totaled 615000 tons, 14000 tons compared with last week; compared with 719000 tons on October 16, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 104000 tons.
2. Good downstream start-up and bright terminal consumption
The operating rate of primary alloy enterprises has risen in recent years, and the order of recent market prosperity of downstream terminals is as follows: automobile, construction and photovoltaic. Near the end of the year, packaging demand is expected to strengthen, and the strong trend of photovoltaic and automobile sectors will remain unchanged in the short term. Affected by weather factors, building materials may weaken slightly, cables or affected by the declining demand of State Grid, and aluminum demand of other plates is expected to change little 。 The overall good trend of aluminum industry chain demand side is more obvious.
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in the first and middle of November 2020, the automobile output of 11 key enterprises completed 1.612 million vehicles, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year. Among them, 1.379 million passenger cars were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and that of commercial vehicles was 233000, with a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. In addition, in October 2020, the automobile output was 2.522 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11%
From January to October of 2020, the completed area of new houses is 492.3973 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%.
3. The output of electrolytic aluminum increased year on year in October, and the production capacity of raw alumina was shut down in November
According to preliminary statistics, in October 2020, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.249 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. From January to October in 2020, the cumulative output of domestic electrolytic aluminum is 30.682 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.5%.
In November, the production capacity of domestic raw material alumina was shut down
(1) Affected by production equipment, China Power Investment Guizhou Zunyi Industrial Development Co., Ltd. stopped production at the beginning of October and is expected to resume production at the beginning of next year;
(2) Chinalco Shanxi new materials Co., Ltd. is expected to shut down a production line of 800000 tons by the end of November. The enterprise has completed 2.6 million tons / year, and the current operating capacity is 1.6 million tons / year.
4. The overall decline of exports in the first 10 months
From January to October in 2020, China’s accumulated export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 3.9801 million tons, down nearly 17.15% from 4.804 million tons in January October 2019. Among them, in October 2020, China’s export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 418900 tons, a month on month decrease of 1.78%, and a year-on-year decline of 2.81%.
5. The import window opens again with large internal and external basis difference
At present, the price difference of aluminum at home and abroad is large, and the window of aluminum ingot import is opened again. It is reported that the aluminum ingot inventory in the Shanghai free trade zone has fallen for the sixth consecutive week, and the aluminum ingots in the bonded area have accelerated to flow into the domestic market.
Motivation of upward trend
1. Driven by macro factors
This month, the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) was signed, adding that the domestic economy has maintained a faster than expected growth rate or will become the only country with positive growth in major economies. The news of the success of vaccines in overseas countries offsets the impact of the current deterioration of the overseas epidemic situation, and the medium-term prospects for improvement are strengthened. In terms of policy, the expectation of large-scale international stimulus policies is still in place. The market is full of emotions and soars, and the nonferrous metal plate is on the rise as a whole.
Domestic macro data exceeded expectations, manufacturing investment rose steadily, and consumption recovered better than expected.
It is reported that in October, the added value of industries above Designated Size nationwide increased by 6.9% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as that in September, and the growth rate was 0.78% month on month. From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 1.8% year on year, 0.6 percentage points faster than that of January September. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3857.6 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year, 1.0 percentage points faster than that of the previous month. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31190.1 billion yuan, down 5.9% year on year.
2. Basically oriented to good drivers
In November, the social inventory of aluminum ingots accelerated the process of de stocking again. The low inventory reflects the overall consumption of domestic aluminum ingot industry chain to a certain extent, and the terminal consumption data of aluminum ingot also shows that the recent growth rate is obvious.
The northern region has gradually entered the heating season. Shanxi, Henan and other aluminum industrial bases have successively issued air pollution prevention and control measures, and environmental protection and emission reduction are expected to remain.
Talk about aluminum moment
Recently, the price of aluminum has risen sharply, and the market is very good. Low inventory continued and de inventory process accelerated, downstream consumption performance bright, macro medium and long-term good expectations gradually formed, the market trend is obvious. Ye Jianjun, an aluminum ingot analyst at the business club, believes that while being optimistic, we should pay attention to the following factors:
1. Domestic supply increased and domestic aluminum ingot output increased slightly in the year;
2. The import conditions of scrap aluminum are loose, the price base difference between internal and external aluminum is large, the window of aluminum ingot import is opened, and the net import situation of aluminum ingot within the year is basically determined;
3. As a major bauxite producer in Brazil, Terra goyana miner plans to expand production capacity and export bauxite to China in 2021, with a target of about 2.5 million tons. The news is bad for alumina. Recently, the price of aluminum ingot is rising, and the price of alumina is weak. The profit of aluminum smelter is rising, and the support of cost side is slightly weakened.
