1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on December 28, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, up 0.72% from the beginning of the month, up 3.21% from the beginning of the month, and down 9.13% from the beginning of the year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, salicylic acid market rose slightly, enterprises generally rose, and the market was good. At the same time, new production capacity entered the market. This month, due to good demand, manufacturers were in short supply, orders increased, and the demand for export and domestic sales increased significantly. Some enterprises said that during this period, export and domestic sales were half and shipment was smooth. According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 28, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 11000-15000 yuan / ton, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton.

Phenol as raw material, the domestic phenol market was weak and fell again at the end of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the influence of shipping schedule, there was little pressure on the port storage. The shippers had a strong mentality and also intended to rise. However, the downstream acceptance was limited, and the transaction of goods source was poor. Although there was a large amount of goods supply in the near weekend, the expected supply side of domestic factory maintenance was slightly reduced, and the quotation of shippers remained stable due to the cost pressure Strong, but few market inquiries and transactions. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there were 19 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 2 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities that rose were formic acid (9.42%), propylene glycol (5.02%) and epichlorohydrin (4.11%). There were 30 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 9 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were silicone DMC (- 21.84%), bisphenol A (- 9.91%) and ox (- 9.09%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.69%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that the downstream demand is good this month, the market is in short supply, the shipment is smooth, and the price rises slightly. It is expected that the salicylic acid price will be stable at the end of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, affected by the weakening cost in the near future, the rise of domestic polyester filament Market slowed down last week (December 18 – December 25). As of December 25, the average price of low elastic polyester DTY (150D / 48F) was 7615 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.60%; the average price of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) was 5971 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.24%; polyester POY was flat with the beginning of the week.

At present, polyester POY (150D / 48F) of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 5650 – 5950 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D / 48F) is 7300 – 7750 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 5800 – 6050 yuan / ton. At present, the market performance is average. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories are 40% – 60%, and the production and sales of some better factories can be even. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 17-33 days, of which POY inventory is 4-12 days, FDY inventory is about 12-30 days, and DTY inventory is about 19-33 days.

In terms of raw material market and crude oil, international crude oil has continued to make efforts since early November. This week, due to the uncertainty of public health events, the market worried that the recovery of demand would slow down, leading to the decline of crude oil and the weakening of PTA cost support. However, the decline of crude oil and refined oil stocks in the United States and the prospect of brexit agreement in the United Kingdom restrained the decline of oil prices. As of December 24, the WTI closing price of international crude oil was at US $48.23/barrel, while the Brent closing price was at US $51.29/barrel.

The domestic PTA spot market first fell and then rose, showing a slight decline in the week as a whole. As of December 25, the average spot price in the domestic market was 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.68% from the beginning of the week and 25.87% from the same period last year. PTA supply remained at a high level. Due to the limited maintenance efforts, the domestic PTA plant operation rate continued to maintain about 90% in the first half of December. With the maintenance of 4.5 million tons of PTA plant in Fuhai, the PTA industry operation rate dropped to around 85% by December 24. In terms of inventory, weak demand led to a substantial accumulation of domestic PTA inventory again, and the social inventory broke through the 4 million ton mark. As of December 18, domestic PTA social inventory was 4.334 million tons, a significant increase of 3.056 million tons compared with the same period in 2019.

The domestic textile market continues to cool down. The number of orders placed in the downstream weaving market has decreased and the stamina is insufficient. In winter, the turnover of fabrics has decreased month on month. In spring, the orders placed for fabrics are relatively limited. The operating rate is insufficient in some parts, and has now dropped to around 76%. At this stage, affected by the outbreak of overseas epidemic, the situation of foreign trade terminal orders has not improved significantly, and exports will be hindered or face downward risks again.

Xia Ting, an analyst of business news agency, believes that the raw material market will restart the 1.1 million ton PTA plant in Zhuhai this week, and the pressure on its own supply side will increase, but the crude oil shock is near the 10 month high, and the cost support still remains. Downstream demand terminal textile off-season characteristics gradually highlighted, but fortunately near the end of the month and is in the traditional year-end stock, partial delivery is OK. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of polyester filament will be stable and strong.

2020 is a special year in history. In the coming year, the world has experienced the unprecedented impact of the new epidemic, and the global economy has been hit hard. As well as the economic aid plans of Europe, America, Asia and other economies, this year is also a year of difficult economic recovery. The performance of international crude oil has experienced ups and downs. We have also witnessed many historical moments, such as the breakdown of OPEC + talks, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil prices” and the farce ridden US election. According to the price comparison chart of business club in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the crude oil market in 2020 is the most difficult year.

Let’s first review the crude oil market trend in 2020

On the whole, according to the data of business news agency, as of December 24, 2020, WTI crude oil fell to $48.23/barrel from $61.68/barrel at the beginning of the year, down 21.81%, and Brent crude oil fell to $51.34/barrel from $68.44/barrel at the beginning of the year, down 24.99%.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the oil price has rapidly entered the downward channel. At first, the market was worried about the decline of China’s fuel demand and the suppression of the economy. From January 20 to January 31, Brent crude oil fell from US $65.20/barrel to US $56.62/barrel, down by US $8.58/barrel (13.2%). WTI crude oil fell from US $58.38/barrel to US $51.56/barrel, a decrease of US $6.82/barrel (11.7%). With the control of China’s epidemic situation and the reduction of OPEC + production, oil prices experienced a brief rebound. In March, the OPEC + production reduction agreement broke down, Russia and Saudi Arabia fought a price war, Saudi Arabia announced a large-scale production increase to gain more market share, and the two sides wrestled with each other to return to the negotiation table. Oil prices plummeted, and WTI fell from $47 at the beginning of March to $20 at the end of the month, a drop of more than 36%.

However, with the rapid spread of the epidemic around the world and the sharp drop in fuel demand, oil prices are still in the downward channel. Subsequently, OPEC + reached an agreement on large-scale production reduction, and OPEC + is ready to jointly reduce production by 9.7 million B / D in May and June. At first, however, the market did not give positive feedback. On the contrary, the sudden drop of demand, the increase of shale oil production in the United States, and the bottleneck of oil storage capacity in the United States, especially the Cushing area near full load, triggered one of the most notable events this year – “negative oil price” event, in which the monthly delivery contract of WTI fell to – 37 US dollars.

After May, OPEC + entered into the period of super scale production reduction, the epidemic situation improved, the demand recovered, and the international oil price began to rise. During the period of super scale production reduction of OPEC + from May to June, WTI rebounded nearly 100%, from $19 at the beginning of May to $38 at the end of June.

In the second half of the year, although the epidemic situation was still fermenting, the economy continued to recover, and the oil price entered a relatively stable stage. In July, OPEC + extended a month’s super scale production reduction (9.7 million barrels), and the production reduction scale dropped to 7.7 million barrels / day from August. From July to October, oil prices have been rising and falling, mainly in the range of shocks. Even the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in August and September, and the endless farce in the US election, did not bring about another dramatic shock to oil prices, such as the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations and negative WTI oil prices.

After November, the new crown vaccine made a major breakthrough, oil prices opened up the upward channel, and OPEC + reached a production reduction agreement in early December, which also released a positive signal to the oil market, that is, OPEC + will “increase production” by 500000 barrels / day in January 2021. Due to the small increase in production, it will also give a reassurance to the uncertain crude oil market in the future. On December 10, Brent crude oil once broke the $50 mark, reaching a nearly eight month high. As of December 28, oil prices were still around $50.

Prospects for 2021

Vaccine and epidemic game demand continues to recover

The epidemic situation in 2020 has always existed. At present, the world economy in 2021 may still be shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic situation. Although the vaccine has made a major breakthrough and entered the vaccination process, there are still many variables in the current epidemic situation. For example, the number of infected people is still increasing, Europe and the United States are still implementing restrictive measures, and the virus variants also bring new challenges to the vaccine. The most important factor of oil price around 2021 is still demand. Recently, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for 2021 again. Due to the continuous impact of the new epidemic, the rebound speed of global oil demand in 2021 will be slower than previously expected. Its latest monthly report shows that the demand will increase by 5.9 million barrels / day to 95.89 million barrels / day next year. This growth is expected to be 350000 B / D lower than a month ago. The recovery of demand has a long way to go.

The diminishing marginal benefit of China’s demand

As for the growth of China’s crude oil demand, it may slow down. Since 2020, China’s crude oil demand has also been severely hit by the epidemic, and the prevention and control is appropriate. After April, crude oil consumption has basically recovered to the level before the epidemic. As the oil price remains low, China’s crude oil imports will only increase. Some institutions predict that China’s crude oil imports in 2020 are expected to exceed 550 million tons (11.01 million barrels / day) or even more, an increase of 8.3% over the record 10.16 million barrels / day crude oil imports in 2019. However, the growth of crude oil imports has also led to a substantial increase in domestic crude oil inventory, accompanied by a decline in refinery efficiency and a continuous decline in operating rate. Under the influence of the epidemic, domestic oil product consumption in 2020 will not perform well. The data show that the cumulative apparent consumption of oil products (gasoline, diesel and coal) in the first 10 months of 2020 will be 240 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%. It is expected that in 2021, China’s crude oil inventory may continue to grow and demand will continue to recover, but the growth rate may slow down.

Supply side

There are also some risks and variables in the supply of oil in 2021. The risks lie in the geopolitical risks of oil producing countries in the Middle East, the increase of shale oil production in the United States and Libya, and the risks of the U.S. policy towards Iran. The variable lies in the implementation of OPEC +, a loose organization of production reduction agreement, and the continuation of the later production reduction policy.

Stable implementation of OPEC + production reduction agreement

Generally speaking, OPEC + may still implement the policy of gradually reducing the scale of production, and OPEC + should adjust its policy in time according to the recovery of global fuel demand. From January 2021, OPEC + will reduce the production reduction scale from 7.7 million B / D to 7.2 million B / D, increasing by 500000 B / D. in addition, it will hold a ministerial meeting once a month to adjust the production reduction scale in a timely manner, and the monthly adjustment will not exceed 500000 B / D. From the current policy point of view, it should be relatively moderate, and its impact on the market tends to be positive. But we can not rule out the negative effect of some members’ negative production reduction.

Us shale oil may continue to grow and increase supply risk

In terms of shale oil in the United States, due to the rising oil price in the second half of 2020, the increased willingness to invest in shale oil, and the continuous rise of shale oil active drilling rigs, Baker Hughes data show that as of December 18, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has increased to 264, which has been rising for five consecutive weeks, and the well completion scale has also improved. At present, the market is generally optimistic about the continued economic growth in 2021 Recovery, better fuel demand and oil price may continue to pick up, which may stimulate more enterprises’ willingness to complete inventory wells and increase active drilling rigs. As a result, US crude oil production may increase, which will have a certain impact on the market. However, judging from the ruling policy of Biden’s Democratic Party, it may pay more attention to the development of clean energy in environmental protection and restrict polluting energy. Due to the severe impact of the epidemic on shale oil enterprises before, trump did not strictly abide by the emission standards during his administration. If a new emission standard is formulated next year, it will raise the cost of shale oil enterprises and suppress some demand. But judging from the current economic situation in the United States, the new standards will not be implemented in the first half of the year at least. But in the long run, shale oil investment may be limited by democratic policies.

Geopolitical risks exist for a long time

In addition, there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Attacks on oil fields in the Middle East have occurred from time to time in the past two years. Especially now, the cost of UAV equipment bomb attacks is low and the maneuverability is convenient, which also brings greater risks. But it can only be a short-term impact. As for the U.S. nuclear policy toward Iran, it is not very clear at present. Whether the Iranian nuclear crisis can be lifted is not a day’s work, and it may still have a long way to go. In the short and medium term, the U.S. sanctions against Iran will not be lifted, and the supply risk of Iran is basically controllable in the short and medium term. But in the long run, Iran, including Venezuela, is still the biggest risk point of supply. If the US policy changes, the pressure on market supply will increase significantly.

Overall, the economy will continue to recover in 2021, the global monetary easing environment will not be broken, and the use of vaccines will further dilute the negative impact of the epidemic. In addition, OPEC + production reduction policy should still play a positive role. Shale oil in the United States is expected to grow again. Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States are still in the triangle of supply side game. As the global oil market continues the process of destocking in the process of demand recovery, it is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, but the uncertainty of demand and the risk of supply may limit the extent of the rise.

As of December 25, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 3990.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.69% from the beginning of the week, according to the data of business news agency.

On December 25, the fuel oil commodity index was 80.81, up 0.25 points from yesterday, down 30.28% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.37% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of domestic marine oil raw materials supported fuel oil 180CST, and the business offer rose. According to the business news agency, as of December 25, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 3960 yuan / ton; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4060 yuan / ton; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 4050 yuan / ton; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4150 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. In the process of continuous improvement of international crude oil market, it is reported that mutated virus has been found in the UK, and most cities in the UK have implemented strict City closure measures. A number of countries around the world have suspended air traffic with the UK, and the demand for crude oil has been significantly restrained. This week, the international crude oil price had a correction, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has increased, with limited support for fuel oil. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): in the week ending December 23, fuel oil stocks decreased by 2.435 million barrels to a one-year low of 20.394 million barrels. On December 22, Fukuang shale oil tender launched a total of 9000 tons of shale oil with a turnover of 3900 tons. The weighted average price was 2841 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that the fuel oil 180CST market is in a strong wait-and-see mood in the near future, the downstream demand is limited, and the terminal purchase is mainly on demand. On the whole, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries rose slightly. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 1496.50 yuan / ton, and the average price of petroleum coke market at the weekend was 1505.75 yuan / ton, up 0.62%, up 42.29% year on year. On December 25, the petroleum coke commodity index was 117.11, up 0.35 points from yesterday, down 24.73% from 155.59 points (2018-01-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.08% from 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke was basically stable, and the price of some refineries rose. The price of low sulfur coke remained stable at a high level and the demand was stable. Due to the influence of heating season, the demand of downstream carbon enterprises is general, and the receiving intention of downstream is general.

Upstream: in the process of continuous improvement of the international crude oil market, it was reported that the mutation virus was found in the UK, and most cities in the UK were strictly closed. A number of countries around the world have suspended air traffic with the UK, and the demand for crude oil has been significantly restrained. This week, the international crude oil price had a correction, with WTI crude oil price down 2.05% and Brent crude oil price down 1.76%.

Downstream: affected by heating and environmental factors, the carbon market is weak and stable; the price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuates at a high level; the cost of silicon metal market supports the price decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 51st week of 2020 (12.21-12.25), there are 7 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that have increased month on month, with methanol (2.84%), coke (2.36%) and dimethyl ether (1.70%) in the top 3. There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, with WTI crude oil (- 2.05%), liquefied gas (- 1.87%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.76%) as the top three products. The average rise and fall this week was 0.02%.

Analysts of petroleum coke from business news agency believe that: affected by the heating and environmental protection factors in the downstream, as well as the capital constraints at the end of the year, the intention of receiving goods in the downstream is general, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that petroleum coke will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market was weak this week. As of December 25, the average price of hydrogenated maleic anhydride remained around 8500.00 yuan / ton, down 0.39% from the beginning of the week and 6.93% from the same period last month.

Yesterday, the commodity index rose 123.56% from the lowest point in December 2014 to December 26, 2020, and was flat from the lowest point in December 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market started stable, and some enterprises carried out preliminary orders. Under the influence of environmental protection factors, the operation rate of unsaturated resin downstream is general, and the resin market demand is general. As of the 25th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7800 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 8200 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7800 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7800 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 79600 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, according to the data of business club’s block list, pure benzene fell this week. On December 27, the price of pure benzene was 3880-4600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 4414 yuan / ton, a decrease of 72 yuan / ton or 1.6% compared with last week; the recent start-up of hydrobenzene was relatively stable, and the port pure benzene inventory declined, with price consolidation as the main trend. As of December 25, the mainstream quotation range of hydrobenzene market in Shandong was 4000-4050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 4025 yuan / ton; the price of n-butane was firm.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current maleic anhydride market has strong wait-and-see sentiment, the downstream resin demand is general, the terminal demand performance is general, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. It is expected that the price will be sorted out in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was strong this week (12.18-12.25). As of December 25, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 5918 yuan / ton, up 3.32% from last Friday’s price of 5728, and down 17.43% year on year. Many manufacturers offer a small increase. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed down at 6304 on December 25, down 14 or 0.22% from the closing of 6318 on Friday. Crude oil and PTA futures first suppressed and then rose, which led to the concussion rebound of polyester staple fiber futures. The rebound of raw materials and futures led to the strength of polyester staple fiber spot price, but the downstream emission reduction and power limitation led to the decline of polyester staple fiber spot production and sales. Restricted by demand, polyester staple fiber spot or difficult to continue to strengthen.

2、 Factors affecting price

PTA: domestic PTA spot market fell slightly this week. Over the weekend, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3630 yuan / ton, down 0.68% compared with the beginning of the week and 25.87% compared with the same period last year.. Crude oil rose last weekend due to the launch of new crown vaccines one after another and the news of OPEC production reduction. This week, crude oil fell due to repeated attacks of new crown epidemic. After stabilizing, crude oil prices fell.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. This weekend, the average ex factory price of oil based glycol in North China was 4050 yuan / ton, up 4.3% from last Friday and down 22.85% from last year. Macro market preference, port inventory decline, emission reduction in many places, power rationing and production reduction, ethylene glycol price rebound. However, the downstream chemical fiber weaving market gradually entered the off-season, production and sales fell, ethylene glycol or re appear accumulation, market downward pressure increased.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. This weekend, the spot market average price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, the same as last week, with a year-on-year drop of 7.25%. The previous week, the domestic textile market is showing signs of warming up. The number of new orders of textile enterprises has increased. In some areas, yarn prices have generally increased slightly. The sales of middle and low-end yarn are better, while the high-end textile and clothing market is still poor. The market performance of different varieties is still different. The quotation of pure polyester yarn market is stable, but the focus of discussion is slightly floating.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that crude oil and PTA have risen in shock since the beginning of November, but this week, affected by repeated public health events, prices have fallen, which has weakened the support for polyester staple fiber cost. The downstream weaving market entered into the traditional off-season, the number of new orders decreased, the turnover of winter fabrics decreased, the orders of spring fabrics were relatively limited, the start-up rate of weaving enterprises was insufficient, and the polyester yarn mills entered the warehouse. Short fiber spot production and sales after the initial hot inventory levels rise, short-term follow-up purchasing enthusiasm or weakened, wait-and-see mood or increased. It is expected that the short fiber spot market will enter the accumulation stage in the future. However, the current crude oil, PTA futures is still strong shock trend, cost support still exist. Short term short fiber futures or continue to show strong oscillation trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 1906 yuan / ton on January 1, and 2116 yuan / ton on December 23. The overall increase of monoammonium phosphate in the whole year was 11.01%, with the maximum amplitude of 12.97%.

According to the business club’s large list data, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2200 yuan / ton, and that on December 23 was 2440 yuan / ton. The overall increase of diammonium phosphate in the whole year was 10.91%, and the maximum amplitude was 13.74%.

2、 Market analysis

In 2020, the market of monoammonium phosphate is relatively volatile, with an overall upward trend and a high price at the end of the year. During the spring ploughing season in the first quarter, the peak season of the year was ushered, and the overall price of map rose by 9.27%. In the peak season of phosphate fertilizer, chemical fertilizer rises together. The raw materials of ammonium phosphate rose sharply, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer was strong, which led to the price rise of ammonium phosphate. Due to poor demand in the off-season, monoammonium phosphate fell sharply in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the market transaction is limited, and the supply of monoammonium phosphate is sufficient, the market is weak, and the price trend is relatively stable. The inflection point was realized in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the market of ammonium phosphate was boosted by the tight supply of goods, cost support and other favorable factors. The price went up, and the focus of trading moved up. In the quarter, the overall price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 13.39%. Towards the end of the year, the lower reaches of the market showed fatigue and limited ability to receive goods. The offer of some areas of map began to loosen. However, the prices of mainstream manufacturers in the market remained stable. With the weakening of the support of the demand side in the future, the market may usher in an inflection point.

In 2020, the market of diammonium phosphate was first depressed and then rose. In the second half of the year, the price rose all the way. At the end of the year, the price rose to a high level in the year, showing a bright performance. The overall price of diammonium phosphate rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. Due to the low price of raw materials and poor transportation in many places, the downstream traders mainly digest the inventory, with poor enthusiasm, strong market supply and weak demand, and the price rise of DAP is hindered. In March, prices began to rise and then stabilized. With Hubei enterprises resuming production one after another, the spot supply is sufficient, new downstream purchase orders are reduced, and the export competition is fierce. The market of diammonium phosphate fell in the second quarter, and the overall price fell by 3.58% in the quarter. In the second half of the year, the domestic and foreign demand for diammonium phosphate increased, the supply of goods was relatively tight, the market gradually improved, and the price began to rise continuously. Near the end of the year, the tight supply of goods continues, the demand for exports slows down, and the market transaction is tepid. However, the demand for downstream fertilizer is stable, and the price is still high. It is expected that the short-term market will be stable.

2020 is coming to an end. The domestic phosphorus ore market is weak and stable as a whole, and the downstream demand is weak. There are not many new orders to purchase, and the support for phosphorus ore is limited. The phosphorus ore industry mainly focused on stabilizing the price a year ago. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the recent adjustment of the phosphorus ore market is limited, and it is expected that the quotation will not be reduced, and the overall stable operation is the main.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts of the business club believe that 2020 will be a tough year for the chemical industry, while the market of ammonium phosphate is boosted by favorable factors such as tight supply and cost support, showing a bright performance and the overall price trend is upward. Although the trend of monoammonium phosphate fluctuated in this year, it did not fall deeply. The attitude of the industry was relatively stable, and it reached a high level at the end of the year. However, after dormant in the first half of the year, diammonium phosphate started to rise in the second half of the year without any correction. At present, there is no obvious negative factor. The market of ammonium phosphate is expected to be stable before the end of the year, and the future market still needs to pay attention to the demand side guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the large list of business associations, the price of domestic toluene rose after falling this week, and fell overall compared with last week. On December 13, the price of toluene was 3860 yuan / ton; on Sunday (December 20), the price was at 3850 yuan / ton, 10 yuan / ton lower than last week, or 0.26%.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, the listed price of toluene in East China increased by 150 yuan / ton, by 100 yuan / ton in Central China, and decreased by 100 yuan / ton in South China. Toluene price is supported by crude oil price; downstream TDI, PX and other start-up is stable, and demand is weak; at present, gasoline price has an obvious impact on toluene price.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil this week showed an overall upward trend. The US economic stimulus plan negotiations are expected to reach an agreement, and the crude oil market is boosted. Compared with December 11, Brent was up $1.94/barrel, or 3.88%; WTI was up $2.49/barrel, or 5.33%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 22.16%, and WTI decreased by 18.97%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of this week was higher than that of last week, and the price of domestic products was 12766.67 yuan / ton, up 0.52% over last week. At present, the TDI market is weak, the atmosphere is cold, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry is not high, and the future market is weak.

In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4300 yuan / ton this week, which was stable compared with last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.82%. The supply of goods in PX yard is normal and the goods are in good condition. PX prices rose this week. As of the end of the week, the Asian PX market closed at US $608.5/t FOB Korea and US $626.5/t CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business agency: first look at the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction implementation, total number of us oil drilling and weekly EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States, the progress in the research and development of new coronal vaccine, the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole, with strong support from the cost side. But the downstream demand is weak, and the upward breakthrough resistance of toluene price is greater. We will focus on the trend of gasoline blended price, and it is expected that there will be upward momentum at the end of the year. Overall, it is expected that the domestic toluene price will continue to rise next week.

According to statistics from the business agency, on December 10, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. In the downstream market, textile mills and traders have prepared goods ahead of time, and the pure polyester yarn market quotation is stable, but the focus of negotiation is slightly floating. According to the survey data of China Light and Textile City, yarn output fell by 0.3% month on month and 1.1% year-on-year. Among them, blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn accounted for 33.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month. The yarn sales rate was 81%, 5% lower than last month. At present, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 13.94 days, which is 0.51 days higher than that of last month.

Last week, signs of recovery in the domestic textile market revealed that the number of new orders of textile enterprises had increased. Yarn prices in some regions were generally increased slightly, and the sales of medium and low-end yarns were good, while the high-end textile and clothing market was still poor, and the market performance differences among different varieties were still large. China’s import of foreign yarn is active and the festival consumption stimulates the terminal demand of retail market, and the price of outer yarn has recovered; the tense situation of container is difficult to ease in the short term, the sea freight price is still high, and the price difference of internal and external yarn continues to hang upside down, and the hanging range continues to converge compared with the previous week.

In the near future, the price of crude oil is strong, supporting the cost of crude oil. The price of polyester staple fiber has risen sharply, and the production and sales volume have been increased. The quotation of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester staple fiber manufacturers has been raised, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. The mainstream transaction price of 1.4d is between 5595-5650 yuan / ton yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. The quotation of Fujian polyester staple fiber manufacturers remained stable, and the actual order was negotiated for shipment, and the actual order of 1.4d was about 5600-5700 yuan / T. Shandong, Hebei polyester staple fiber prices are mostly stable, trading atmosphere is general.

The opening rate of weaving Market is stable, and some market orders are getting better. Since December, the textile market has gradually improved. The domestic weaving load was stable at 77.67%, and the weaving operation rate was slightly higher than that in the previous statistical cycle. With the boost of vaccine, the market’s expectation for the recovery of peripheral terminal textile demand was gradually strengthened. The subsequent spring and summer clothing orders still faced the risk of last year’s inventory and RMB appreciation, and the turning point of weaving opening rate has not yet appeared. Recently, the spot transaction and order delivery of chemical fiber grey cloth in China Light and textile city have rebounded month on month, and the price index shows a slight upward trend, while the transaction price of polyester yarn grey cloth, polyester spinning grey cloth, polyester crepe grey cloth, polyester hemp grey cloth and polyester yarn dyed grey cloth has increased slightly month on month. Clothing fabric sales rose on a month on month basis, while market turnover increased slightly. Boosted by the “double 12″ market, orders of clothing fabrics in early winter increased month on month, while fabric orders in spring increased month on month, and prices rose slightly.

Generally speaking, the stable raw material prices in the near future have given certain confidence to the downstream, adding to the optimistic expectation of the downstream for 2021, which leads to the early preparation of textile mills and traders in mid and late December. Businesses believe that this wave of market is mainly downstream replenishment at the end of the year, whether consumer demand is increasing, is still skeptical. At present, the persistence of terminal demand is limited, and the market mentality is cautious. Business agency analysts believe that in accordance with past practice, the situation of downstream funds is generally tight at the end of the year. Moreover, foreign trade orders caused by the decline of overseas demand this year are difficult to be large-scale. Even if the price increase of staple fiber can be transmitted to the yarn mill, it is extremely difficult for the price of the yarn mill to continue to pass down after the price rise. The terminal demand is difficult to see a substantial improvement, and the pure polyester yarn market is stable and strong.