Spot aluminum price callback 13.55%

According to the data of business news agency, on January 20, 2021, the average market price of domestic standard aluminum ingots in East China was 14776.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.04% compared with 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1), and a decrease of 13.55% compared with the peak market price in 2020 (December 2), 17093.33 yuan / ton.

The current price is close to the mid to late October 2020 aluminum ingot price range.

Overview of aluminum ingot Fundamentals

1. Import and export data

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the annual export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in 2020 was 4857434.8 tons, a decrease of 15.2% compared with that in 2019; China’s export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in December was 456130.4 tons.

2. List of production capacity, output and operating rate in December

According to statistics, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum has been rising slowly since May 2020. In December, the production capacity is around 39 million tons, and the operating rate is about 90%, which is at a high level in nearly 10 years. In December, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was about 3.3 million tons, up 8% year on year.

3. The social inventory of aluminum ingots rebounded slightly

On January 14, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 68.4 tons, an increase of 20000 tons over last week. The social inventory of 6063 aluminum rods in Foshan, Wuxi, Nanchang, Changzhou and Huzhou was 82700 tons, 3000 tons less than last week.

4. One of the domestic terminals: the trend of automobile production and sales data in 2020 is good

According to the data of China Association of automobile industry, in 2020, the annual production and sales of automobiles will be 25.525 million and 25.311 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% and 1.9% respectively, and the decrease rate will be 5.5% and 6.3% lower than that of the previous year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive compared with that of the previous year. Among them, China’s car sales in December were 2.831 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and the sales of new energy vehicles in December were 248000, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%.. In addition, according to the data of the passenger Federation, the annual wholesale sales of domestic narrow sense passenger cars in 2020 will reach 19.763 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. The top three are FAW Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM. Market sales exceeded expectations, reflecting the industry’s steady recovery after two consecutive years of decline.

Influencing factors of future trend of aluminum ingot

1. The consumption of aluminum ingots is expected to weaken in the early stage of the Spring Festival. Affected by the shutdown factors in the downstream of the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption of aluminum ingots may have a slight drop. At present, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots has been slightly accumulated, although the range has slightly slowed down, it may continue in the short term.

2. The domestic new production capacity is not much, the profit of electrolytic aluminum is relatively high in the early stage, the internal and external prices are upside down, and the demand for imported aluminum ingots is strong. Although the aluminum price falls, the short-term operating rate is greatly reduced, and the change probability is small, and the domestic supply is relatively stable.

3. In the aspect of investment, the total position of Hulai shows a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing, the willingness of long stop earning weakens, and the long short game is stalemate.

Future conclusions

On the raw material side, affected by the rising price of steam coal, the cost side is better than the price of aluminum ingot to a certain extent. Based on the sharp reduction of current profits, the impact factor of cost side is larger than that in the earlier stage; however, near the Spring Festival, the impact of production restriction, electricity restriction and gas restriction has expanded, the downstream construction has gradually declined, and the downstream consumption has weakened at the end of the year, which is bad for the aluminum price. Aluminum price is expected to remain weak in the near future, but the consolidation probability will increase.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been running smoothly. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 19, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday (January 12), increased by 15.22% compared with December 19, and increased by 22.31% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market remained stable as a whole, and the manufacturers and dealers generally maintained that there was no obvious price adjustment in the early stage, but the price was still at a high level compared with the same period last year. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton, that of Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2550 yuan / ton, and that of Jintan local Industrial Supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2800 yuan / ton. The spot price of merchants follows the market, The actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

For upstream caustic soda, on January 19, the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was temporarily stable. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 400-530 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand was general. There was a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda, and it was expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda would be weak. For upstream liquid ammonia, according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 18, the average price quoted by enterprises was 3343.33 yuan / ton, up 1.62% compared with the beginning of the month; For upstream sulfuric acid, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on January 19. The recent high price of sulfur in the upstream was consolidated, and the cost support was good. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid in the future fluctuated slightly. For upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price quoted by enterprises was 2362.50 yuan / ton as of January 19, up 2.27% compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on January 18, 2021, 25 kinds of commodities rose in the chemical industry sector, of which 3 kinds of commodities rose by more than 5%, accounting for 3.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were bisphenol A (6.68%), DMF (6.12%) and formaldehyde (37%) (5.46%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined month on month, with propane (- 4.04%), hydrogen peroxide (- 3.31%) and chloroform (- 3.03%) as the top three products. The average daily rise and fall was 0.36%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that in the near future, the cost side support is general, downstream on-demand procurement, the overall market volatility is not big, manufacturers and dealers mainly maintain stability and wait-and-see, it is expected that in the short term, formic acid market will be mainly stable, more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride rose slightly this week. The average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week rose from 2160.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.69%. Overall, the potassium chloride market rose this week, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 69.05 on January 15.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers Rose: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 2050 yuan / ton, which was 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the distribution quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend was 2300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was mainly small fluctuation. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Nitric acid market price trend chart

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in domestic areas this week is 2050 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1950-2000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1950 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, 810 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid, which was the same as last week; Shaanxi Xinghua Chemical quoted 1900 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was the same as last week. Near the Spring Festival, the market demand of nitric acid is general, and the quotation of manufacturers is stable.

The average price of upstream liquid ammonia in Shandong this weekend was 3326 yuan / ton, up by 1.84%; the average price of downstream aniline in domestic market this week was 6040 yuan / ton, according to the data of business agency, and the quotation was temporarily stable. The average price of downstream TDI in East China this week is 12666 yuan / ton, with stable quotation.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market demand is weak and stable, nitric acid analysts of business community predict that the price of nitric acid is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, on January 15, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2084.67 yuan / ton, and on January 11, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2083 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year increase of 10.3%

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 15, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, and on November 11, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.00% and a year-on-year increase of 10.91%

2、 Market analysis

The price of map fluctuated slightly this week. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the start-up is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the factory price of ammonium powder is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton, and 58% of the factory price of ammonium powder is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan maintains stable operation. 55% of the price of powdered ammonium is about 2000 yuan / ton, and the start-up is stable. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is 2100-2150 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.

This week, the price of DAP kept stable. The price of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2450-2500 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Gansu Province is 2500-2650 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2750-2900 yuan / ton. The main price of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is 2850 yuan / ton, and the first arrival price of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang is about 2850-2890 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic phosphorus ore market is generally stable, with downstream procurement being cautious. The tide of stock preparation before the festival does not appear, and there are not many new orders. It is heard that some mines will reduce the operating rate in the near future and keep the mass production conservative. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market will be mainly stable in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium phosphate of business news agency believe that at present, with the increase of raw material price and the increasing support of cost, combined with the improvement of the enthusiasm of downstream compound fertilizer preparation, moderate replenishment mainly promotes the slight rise of the price of monoammonium phosphate, and it is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate will continue to rise in the short term. The tight supply of DAP in the yard continued, the raw materials went up, and the demand for winter storage was stable. Supported by the favorable situation, DAP showed a strong trend and is expected to continue to rise steadily.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (January 18): 11420.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11420.00 yuan / ton on the 18th, up 3.16% from the previous day. On the one hand, the price of natural rubber is at a high level, which drives the bullish atmosphere of synthetic rubber; on the other hand, the rubber plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Company stopped unexpectedly last week due to some reasons, and the supply side is expected to be tight. Although the price of raw material butadiene has dropped to 6523 yuan / ton, the overall bullish factors dominate. In addition, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was increased by 500 yuan / ton by petrochemicals on Friday (15th), which made the market move and the price went up. According to the business news agency, as of January 18, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding of PetroChina Northeast sales branch was 11400 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: low price of raw materials, tight supply. It is expected that the price rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will slow down in the future.

Domestic liquid epoxy resin plants maintain a high level or continue to increase, followed by the market offer. Up to now, the East China liquid epoxy resin continues to negotiate about 24000 yuan / ton in barrels, and the factory offer is mostly 23000-24500 yuan / ton with limited supply, so the delivery needs to queue up. Among them, the mainstream negotiation of solid resin is about 17900-18200 yuan / ton (delivered by acceptance). Compared with the previous period, the orders of the current factory increase. In addition, the upstream raw materials also show signs of warming up, and the rise of epoxy resin is obvious.

The demand for epoxy resin in downstream industries such as electronic and electrical coatings is increasing, and the factory has no pressure to ship. Under the tight supply, the liquid epoxy resin market rose obviously. With a wave of decline in the early stage, the inventory of downstream factories was basically exhausted, and the epoxy resin market fell to the break even point. Some factories reduced the operating rate mainly through a single discussion. After a short period of price balance, the terminal procurement gradually warmed up. However, a few factories were affected by the extremely cold weather, and the equipment failure was the cause of the epidemic As the operating rate of the plant is down, the holiday is approaching, the logistics is tight, and the inventory demand is increasing. However, the epoxy resin inventory is not large. With the arrival of a wave of demand, the factory needs to queue up to pick up the goods. Under the tight supply, the factory offers are raised to 23000-24500 yuan / ton.

As for the plant, the 15000 ton solid epoxy resin plant in Huangshan Jinfeng was put into operation again.

Bisphenol A, the raw material, went up again. The opening price of this week showed an obvious upward trend. The offer of the goods holders was not the highest, but higher. The offer of 13800-15000 yuan / ton was available. The goods holders had a good mentality and had a strong push up atmosphere. The mainstream transaction was 13800-14000 yuan / ton. For the factories, Lihua yiweiyuan offered 13500 yuan / ton. For the other factories, the offer was still suspended. For the market, the offer of East China and North China remained unchanged Between 13800-14000 yuan / ton. The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, remained weak, with little change in a narrow range. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 11200-12000 yuan / ton.

It is estimated that the liquid epoxy resin will maintain 23000-24500 yuan / ton in the short term

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable in the first half of this week, and rose continuously in the second half of this week, with the price of 7291 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 7391 yuan / ton at the weekend, and 1.37% at the end of the week; the price of 7285 yuan / ton at the end of the week, and 1.45% at the end of the week.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price went down all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day, and increased by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices went down. Later, the price continued to be stable. On the 14th, the price finally showed a general rise. Today, the price continued to rise slightly by about 50 yuan / ton, and the market transaction was 7350 ~ 7550 yuan / ton The mainstream price is about 7350 yuan / ton. Now the manufacturer’s inventory is a little tight, and the shipment is smooth. The price in the North has dropped slightly, and the original price difference has been repaired. Affected by the new covid-19 epidemic, logistics has risen slightly, affecting propylene prices.

On January 13, crude oil prices fell slightly, but had little effect on propylene.

This week, the spot price of PP declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 1.03%, but the PP futures market was better, with general impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market is stable, the impact on propylene is limited.

This week, the market of propylene oxide has been stable, but it has little effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 1.35%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price continued to rise and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 8.37%, which had a significant pull-up effect on propylene.

Octanol market rebounded after declining this week, with a weekly increase of only 0.31% and a weekly amplitude of 16.79%, which was slightly favorable for propylene.

Isopropanol market rose sharply at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 5.53%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.

This week, the price of phenol in East China was stable, but there was no effect on propylene.

This week, acetone in East China rose by 3.60%, which had a small pulling effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from Shangshe chemical branch think: Generally speaking, the current inventory is not much, the price difference in the northern market is restored, the logistics cost is slightly increased, the crude oil price is slightly downward, the downstream polypropylene futures market is better, the operating rate is slightly increased, the trading volume is warmer, and the downstream products are much more empty, so it is expected that the propylene price will continue to rise in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

Nickel prices rose slightly on the 14th, with the spot price of 134533.33 yuan / ton, up 1.09% from the previous trading day, 4.99% from the beginning of the year, and 18.76% from the same period last year, according to nickel price monitoring of business association.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, nickel price fluctuated widely. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in China and Europe is bright, the demand is still good, the performance of refined nickel is strong, and there is still strong support below. However, due to the interference of epidemic situation, the uncertainty increases. London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel stocks reported 249432 metric tons on the 13th, 234 metric tons higher than the previous trading day.

Future forecast: nickel is supported by the new energy industry, combined with the impact of tight spot inventory, while the demand for stainless steel is likely to decline near the Spring Festival, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is expected to weaken. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, in 2020, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price mainly fluctuated up and down. In April, there was a sharp jump and then a sharp drop, with a short-term rise and fall of more than 80%. The price at the beginning of 2020 is 6698 yuan / ton, and that at the end of 2020 is 7209 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 7.62%. In 2020, the annual low price is 5185 yuan / ton on April 2, and the annual high price is 9446 yuan / ton on April 12 and 13, with a monthly amplitude of 82.18%.

2、 Monthly analysis

1. In February, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two rounds of shocks, and the market was slightly pessimistic. It is expected that the future market is not ideal.

In March, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced a rapid decline trend after two small rises, with 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; the monthly low price was 5378 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 15.31%; the monthly high price was 6663 yuan / ton from March 6 to March 9, with a monthly amplitude of 19.29%. Affected by the international crude oil market game, the crude oil market has repeatedly been low. As the production and inventory of propylene were low before, the decline was not significant in the early stage, and the follow-up trend was also obvious in the later stage. At the beginning of April, more propylene enterprises may start production and increase production. And the lower butanol and octanol market down significantly, although isopropanol is still rising gratifying, PP futures also have a callback, can still be a lonely tree difficult to support, it is expected that there will continue to be a downward trend in the future.

In April, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced a huge upward and downward trend, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 5239 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 5932 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.22%; the monthly low price appeared on April 2, with 5185 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared on April 12 and 13, with 9446 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 82.18%. The international crude oil market price is generally low, but affected by the event, it may rise in the near future, so it has little impact on propylene. In April, the melt blown cloth rose sharply, which affected the raw material propylene market, which has been stable. The downstream market is relatively flat, and the rising market of isopropanol has also calmed down. On the whole, it has a slight positive impact, but the impact is limited. In addition, the May Day just needs to be prepared, and it is expected that it will go up slightly and then stabilize in the future.

In May, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated and went up, then fell back, and rose slightly at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the monthly low price was 5936 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, the monthly high price was 6595 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.09%; the monthly high price was 6979 yuan / ton from May 21 to 23, with a monthly amplitude of 17.57%. The international crude oil market price continues to rise, which has a positive effect on propylene. Most downstream prices have risen, but the pressure of raw materials still exists. Some downstream products adopt the way of reducing production and stopping production, and the operating rate is declining. They just need to purchase, and the delivery and investment are cold. The manufacturers’ shipment inventory is gradually stable. It is expected that the future market may be slightly affected by crude oil.

In June, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced two and a half rounds of ups and downs, with 6643 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6845 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.04%; the monthly high price appeared on June 4, with 6906 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on June 13, with a monthly amplitude of 5.91%, with 6498 yuan / ton. Although the price of crude oil in the international crude oil market is slightly lower, the future market is still ideal, which has a certain positive effect on propylene. The downstream prices have been rising and falling, but the operating rate is ideal, the trading is relatively active, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively low, and the maintenance of some devices is stopped. It is expected that there are still signs of rising in the future.

In July, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price experienced three rounds of ups and downs, with 6866 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 0.60%; the monthly high price appeared from July 9 to 11, with 6892 yuan / ton, and the monthly low price appeared on July 4 and 5, with 6636 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.86%. At present, propylene manufacturers have no inventory pressure, and the shipment is smooth. Although the price of crude oil has declined slightly, the overall downstream market is relatively ideal in the near future. Propylene market price has been rising continuously, although it has not reached the upper limit, but the purchasing enthusiasm has been slightly reduced. It is mainly just need to purchase, and the market atmosphere is general. It is expected that it will rise slightly again and then stabilize in the future.

In August, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price went up and broke through the original range, then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared on August 10-13, with 7036 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price fluctuates slightly, the downstream polypropylene futures market rises continuously, the overall profit margin is good, and there are many positive factors, but the just need to purchase is the main, the overall market trading is stable, and it is expected that the propylene price may rise.

In September, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price showed a ladder like rise. At the beginning of the month, it rose significantly and then stabilized, with a slight downward shock. In the middle of the month, it rose rapidly again. In the second half of the month, the price was generally stable, with a slight upward trend at the end of the month. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 6989 yuan / ton; the price at the end of the month is the monthly high price, 7503 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 7.35%. At present, propylene manufacturers do not have much inventory, crude oil prices are declining, but the downstream products are profitable, the operating rate is high, and there is a demand for replenishment before the festival, which has a certain support for propylene. The overall positive factors are more than negative factors. Now the propylene price is at the top position, and the upward trend is difficult. It is expected that the future market will be stable in the short term.

In October, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price was stable in the first half of the month and plummeted in the second half. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7503 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 6736 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 10.21%; at the end of the month, the price was 7530 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 10.54%. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is gradually increasing, the crude oil price is going down, the downstream supply is sufficient, and the external supply is entering. The market is a little bad, and the price has shown a large decline in the short term. It is expected that the future market will be affected by the detailed inventory, or stabilize after a small decline.

In November, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated steadily in the first half of the year, and rose sharply in the second half. At the beginning of the month, the monthly price was 6737 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the monthly price was 7739 yuan / ton. The monthly average price rose by more than 1000 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 14.87%. At present, propylene manufacturers have less inventory, the crude oil price has been up and down, the downstream market is better, and the increase is more obvious. However, the market starts to stabilize at the end of the month, and the upward pressure is greater in the later period. It is expected that it will be stable for a short time in the future.

In December, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly in the first ten days, fell slightly in the middle of the year, then stabilized, and fell in a straight line in the last ten days. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7712 yuan / ton, at the end of the month, the price was 7209 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 6.52%; on December 8 and 9, the price was 8191 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 11.99%. Propylene inventory is increasing, crude oil price is rising slightly, and the downstream market is empty more than much. The overall situation is slightly depressed, mainly for the purchase of just need. It is expected that there is still room for further downward trend in the future.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society, in 2020, except for the huge fluctuation caused by polypropylene in April, the rest of the propylene market is mainly stable up and down within a certain range. At the present stage, the crude oil is favorable and the downstream market is general, but the operating rate can still be affected. It is expected that the price will be stable in the short term, and the possibility of a slight rise can not be ruled out.