Supply increases, aniline prices continue to decline (2021.7.12-7.16)

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the weakness of aniline Market weakened this week. On July 9, the price in Shandong was 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10200-10400 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9400-9600 yuan / ton on July 16; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5.63% lower than last week, 20.25% higher than the beginning of the year, and 124.41% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the inventory of East China port remained low this week, and the supply of pure benzene in the spot market was still tight. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 8600 yuan / ton, which was lower than the market expectation. According to the dynamic situation of the plant, there will be new pure benzene output in the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Weilian chemical and North Huajin units will be shut down for maintenance. In terms of demand, downstream products are in deficit, some units are reducing load, and the demand for pure benzene may decline.

The price of nitric acid rose for six consecutive weeks. On Friday (July 16), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2450 yuan / ton, up 2.08% from last week and 68.97% from the same period last year.

Jinling aniline began to ship, and the spot supply increased; In addition, Wanhua chemical’s 400000 T / a new aniline plant has been put into operation, which has a huge impact on the future supply of aniline Market and a strong market bearish attitude. Downstream demand maintains rigid demand and lacks support.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is expected to have new pure benzene output and increased supply, so the market is bearish on the future. Although the shutdown of some units will offset part of the output, the downward pressure of pure benzene is greater.

The supply of aniline is expected to increase greatly in the later stage, but it is difficult for downstream demand to make a big breakthrough in the short term. Under the pressure of oversupply, aniline may continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and aniline plant.