According to the data of business agency, on July 8, the average p value of oil glycol was 4608.33 yuan / ton, down 71.67 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, down 1.53% year-on-year.

Upstream, oil prices rose, continued to be supported by concerns about the prospects of tight supply, but the global economic recession curbed the rise in oil prices. And there is still uncertainty on the supply side of crude oil in the later stage, which may continue to consolidate. At present, ethylene glycol is at a loss, and the operating rate of MEG device is still gradually decreasing. Although the port inventory has been slightly removed from the warehouse, the overall inventory remains high. As of July 7, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.248 million tons, a decrease of 24900 tons, a decrease of 2.02%, and a decrease of 21000 tons, a decrease of 1.71%, compared with Monday. The supply and demand side is weak, the production reduction plan of downstream polyester plants is gradually implemented, and the demand side continues to be weak.

Prediction: narrow range oscillation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on July 9 was 120.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.49% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business society showed that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride was stable in the first ten days of July, and the mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 2230 yuan / ton. So far this month, the manufacturer has normal production, sufficient spot inventory, demand and transaction.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: the monitoring data of business agency showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly in early July, from 270 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.04%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market is relatively stable, some manufacturers limit production, and the downstream demand is general; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has fallen slightly, the cost support is general, the downstream ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, the price of polyaluminum chloride has been consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG price fell after a slight rise in early July, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 1st was 5860 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 10th was 5786 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 1.3%. The LNG market was weak, and the terminal demand was sluggish. Manufacturers mostly cut prices, and the market is bearish. It is expected that LNG will continue to decline in the short term.

Future forecast: in the near future, the cost of raw materials is still weak, the downstream demand continues to be light, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the market of polyaluminum chloride will be stable in the middle of the year, with little change.

Price trend

On the 7th, the propylene market was adjusted at a low level, and the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7400-7550 yuan / ton. The current market supply is loose, and most downstream products are weak, with poor demand. Although the cost side support is acceptable, under the guidance of demand, enterprises give up profits and take away goods, and the price keeps bottoming out.

Forecast: it is difficult to break the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the propylene price will be adjusted at a low level in the near future.

On July 6, the price trend of acetic acid decreased slightly, and the average market price in East China decreased by 0.31% compared with the previous working day. The quotation of enterprises is temporarily stable. At present, the downstream demand is light, the market entry follow-up is dominated by rigid demand, the on-site trading is general, the shipment of enterprises is poor, the inventory pressure increases, the goods are negotiated by the goods holders, the trading atmosphere is general, the mentality of the operators is wait-and-see, the short-term acetic acid market is weak, and the price may be reduced slightly. Pay attention to the market transaction situation specifically.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (July 5):7600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market is stable today, and the average production price in Henan is flat compared with the previous working day. At present, the upstream raw materials are still tight, the fuel price is high, resulting in increased production costs of enterprises, low load operation of many cryolite devices in the field, tight inventory of enterprises, stable downstream demand, smooth shipment of enterprises, and cryolite prices remain high.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term cryolite market will be sorted out at a high level, and the aftermarket will pay attention to the market supply.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The domestic p-xylene price is 10000 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the domestic p-xylene supply is general, and the overseas unit operation is relatively normal, so the domestic p-xylene price remains high. Recently, the international oil price rose slightly, and the trend of PX external price fell back. On the 1st, the closing prices in Asia were $1202-1204 / ton FOB South Korea and $1220-1222 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has remained low. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price is still supported, The downstream PTA and textile industry fell back, and it is expected that the market price of paraxylene may stabilize temporarily in the later period.

On July 1, the rare earth index was 839 points, down 6 points from yesterday, down 16.68% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 209.59% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 1.135 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 927500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 1.185 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 962500 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.23 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 2.48 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium metal fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 3.22 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.445 million yuan / ton, the domestic light rare earth market price fell slightly, the recent procurement is general, the domestic heavy rare earth market dysprosium series price trend fell, terbium series price fell, the downstream purchase is mainly on demand, and Myanmar banned exports, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price may decline slightly in the later period.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 30): 17675 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average market price of TDI in East China today was slightly reduced by 0.114% compared with the previous working day, and the market was sorted out and operated. The news on the floor is quiet, the factory has a strong market mentality, the downstream demand is weak, there are a small number of inquiries on the floor, which just need to be followed up, the goods are held for negotiation, the market trading is generally light, and the mentality of the operators is mainly stalemate. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17300-17600 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17500-18000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: the short-term TDI market will wait and see the consolidation and operation, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 29): 17700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is flat compared with the previous working day, and the market situation is waiting to be sorted out. The terminal industry is in the traditional off-season, with weak downstream demand, the factory’s attitude of supporting the market, the offer of the shipper is large, stable and small, a small number of on-site inquiries just need to be followed up, the overall market trading is light, and the operator’s attitude is stalemate and wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17400-17600 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 17500-18000 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term TDI market is weak, and the market supply and downstream follow-up are specifically concerned.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (June 28):7600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market continues to be stable today, and the average production price in Henan is flat compared with the previous working day. Due to the shortage of upstream raw materials, the higher fuel cost of the superimposed enterprise, the higher production pressure of the enterprise, the low load operation of the cryolite device in the yard, the low inventory, the stable demand of the downstream, the smooth shipment of the enterprise, and the quotation of the cryolite manufacturer maintained a high level.

Future forecast: the short-term cryolite market will run stably for the time being, and the future market will pay attention to the market supply.