Weakening costs and falling phosphoric acid prices (2.13-2.17)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8383 yuan/ton, down 4.10% from the average price of 8741 yuan/ton on February 13.

 

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85-content wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8250 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the average price of 8800 yuan/ton on February 13.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Mainstream market:

 

As of February 17, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-9200 yuan/ton.

 

Cost side:

 

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In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

 

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market this week was relatively strong. As of February 17, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

 

Supply and demand side:

 

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was low, and there were few transactions on the market. The release of terminal demand is slow, and now it is mainly wait-and-see.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the trend of the phosphoric acid market has continued to decline recently. The price of raw yellow phosphorus fell, and the cost support weakened. Downstream demand is weak and market trading is weak. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be weak in the short term.

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