Since mid-September, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has continued to decline, further dropping below 7,900 yuan/ton in October, reaching a new low for the year and the lowest level since July 2023. The mainstream off-tank ex-shipment price at East China ports is around 7,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month and a 34% decrease compared to the peak of 11,900 yuan/ton in February this year. In the Shandong market, the short-distance delivery price is 7,850 yuan/ton, marking a 33.5% decline from the peak of 11,800 yuan/ton in February this year.
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The intensification of supply-demand imbalances remains the primary cause
Looking back at historical data, since the acrylonitrile industry entered an overcapacity cycle in 2022, market prices have typically reached their annual lows during the traditional off-season in July-August, then generally showed an upward trend in the fourth quarter. However, this year’s market performance has deviated from the norm. Since the beginning of 2025, the first quarter saw a sharp market rally driven by supply uncertainties, followed by prolonged fluctuations at relatively low levels (between 8,000-8,500 yuan/ton). By the fourth quarter, prices further declined to the lower end of 8,000 yuan/ton.
On one hand, 2025 marks a new round of concentrated capacity expansion following 2022, with 1.05 million tons of new capacity already successfully commissioned as of now, and the majority of the additional supply expected to be gradually released in the second half of the year. On the other hand, downstream industries have increasingly diverged from the traditional peak and off-season patterns due to factors such as upstream price volatility, external market turbulence, and their own supply-demand shifts. Notably, this year’s “Golden September and Silver October” period was largely uneventful, falling far short of the usual consumption growth seen in the same period in previous years.
In terms of the market outlook for the fourth quarter of this year, by October, the maintenance of acrylonitrile production facilities had gradually resumed, with industry capacity utilization rising to nearly 80%, reaching its highest level since March this year and significantly higher than the same period last year. Given the already substantial increase in capacity to 5.421 million tons per year, supply further surged significantly. According to calculations, domestic acrylonitrile production exceeded 400,000 tons in October, marking the highest monthly output in history. Although consumption also showed growth, it lagged far behind the supply increase, resulting in a domestic supply-demand gap of 64,000 tons in October, a relatively high level. Contract and spot sales also faced notable pressure during the month, prompting suppliers to actively lower prices and clear inventory.
However, as the price of acrylonitrile dropped to historically low levels, buyer enthusiasm began to rise. This was also driven by concerns that potential supply fluctuations in acrylonitrile could lead to a price rebound. Consequently, despite no clear expectation of significant growth in actual consumption, downstream users showed strong willingness to build positions.
It is understood that the major acrylonitrile producers have smoothly scheduled their contracts for November, alleviating sales pressure. However, apart from a minor maintenance plan for one production line at Kourou and the delayed restart of Fushun Petrochemical’s 92,000-ton-per-year unit until early November, no clear production cut plans have been announced for other acrylonitrile facilities. As a result, supply is expected to remain high in November and December, indicating limited prospects for easing industry overcapacity.
Market forecast: Overall estimation for November shows that the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylonitrile industry still exists. Although it is understood that the export negotiation volume has also increased, the supply-demand gap is still difficult to reconcile. At the same time, in the short term, the inventory of acrylonitrile industry is shifting to downstream links, but the long-term accumulation pressure has not yet eased. In addition, in the long run, the upstream propylene price may fluctuate around the range of 5900-6100 yuan/ton, and the support of raw material costs has also weakened. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be resistance to the continued upward push of the acrylonitrile market, and there may be slight fluctuations in the short term. If there is no improvement in long-term supply and demand, it is not ruled out that prices will fall again.
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