Since November, the domestic acrylic acid market has shown an overall stable and weak operation, driven by the fundamental driving force of “terminal rigid demand procurement”. The market lacks strong upward or downward momentum, and under the interweaving of long and short factors, prices fluctuate narrowly, with transactions mainly consisting of small orders for essential needs.
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Overall market performance: ‘Stability’ is the main theme
Price level: As of November 4th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 6500.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.
At the transaction level, the characteristic of “essential purchase” is obvious. Downstream factories and traders generally adopt a cautious attitude, and their market purchases are mainly focused on meeting short-term production needs, with rare large orders and hoarding behavior. The market transaction atmosphere is lukewarm, and the phenomenon of “one single talk” is common.
1. Demand side:
The main downstream performance is average:
Acrylic ester (butyl acrylate, etc.): Its downstream industries such as adhesive tape and coatings are in a traditional off-season, with limited order growth and stable consumption of raw materials, making it difficult to form a centralized procurement trend.
SAP (Highly Absorbent Resin): mainly used in the field of hygiene products, with relatively stable demand but lacking unexpected growth points.
Polymer lotion: general demand in construction and textile fields.
Buying up, not buying down mentality: Due to cautious expectations for the future, end users generally do not have a strong willingness to stock up. When prices remain stable or even slightly loose, they tend to prefer “on-demand procurement” and wait for lower prices or clearer market signals.
2. Supply side:
The operating rate remains at a medium high level: Since November, the overall operating rate of the acrylic acid industry has remained around 65% -70%. Although some devices undergo routine maintenance, it has not caused a significant impact on market supply, and the supply of goods is sufficient.
Inventory pressure is controllable: The overall inventory level of production factories is in the middle range, and there has been no serious inventory backlog. This gives the factory a certain confidence in the price game, unwilling to significantly reduce prices for sales, thus forming a bottom support for prices.
3. Cost side:
The price of raw material propylene has weakened: After November, the price of the main raw material propylene has experienced a certain degree of decline. As of November 4th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6018.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the beginning of this month (6058.25 yuan/ton). This weakens the cost support of acrylic acid and provides space for the downward trend of acrylic acid prices. The loosening of costs has eased the profit pressure of acrylic acid factories, but at the same time, it has also reduced the market’s acceptance of high priced acrylic acid.
Future prospects:
Short term (until the end of November): The market is likely to continue the pattern of “stable and weak, dominated by rigid demand”. In the absence of significant positive or negative news, prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. If the raw material propylene continues to weaken, there may be a slight downward shift in the price center of acrylic acid.
Summary:
For “terminal essential procurement”, the acrylic acid market since November has been a typical “buyer’s market”. The purchaser has significant bargaining power and choice space, and can easily purchase according to their own production pace without worrying about shortages or price surges. In summary, behind the ‘stable operation’ is the full embodiment of the logic of ‘rigid demand procurement’ under weak supply-demand balance. The market is waiting for new driving factors to break this balance.
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