1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of SG5 of carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on January 21 was 6825 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous day, and the market was temporarily stable, up 7.48%%% compared with the same period last year. On January 21, the PVC commodity index was 86.48, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.52% from the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 48.41% from the lowest point, 58.27, on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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2、 Market analysis
Products: near the Spring Festival, PVC market trend is stable. In recent days, the spot market has been light in trading, downstream factories have been on holiday, the intention to prepare goods before the festival is light, there are not many sporadic replenishments, and the traders continue to withdraw from the market, market transactions tend to stagnate. At present, the social inventory of PVC continues to increase, and the operation rate of upstream PVC factories decreases. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival holiday may be lower than that of the same period last year, and the enterprises are facing certain pressure. In the demand side dominated situation, PVC spot price trend is weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 21, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou district is 6850-6950 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou district is 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou district is 6850-6920 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.
Futures: on Monday, PVC main v2005 contracts were narrowed, closing at 6470 yuan / ton, compared with – 5 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 68333 hands, + 10569 hands; positions were 197607 hands, – 4819 hands, basis difference was 280 yuan, + 5 yuan; 5-9 price difference was 40 yuan, + 20 yuan. Futures closed up 10 at 6490.
News: on January 17, the National Bureau of statistics released data on investment and sales of real estate development nationwide from January to December 2019. Accordingly, in 2019, the national real estate development investment was 13219.4 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous year. Among them, residential investment reached 9707.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous year. The new construction area changed from negative to positive year on year, showing a positive trend.
Industry chain: disturbed by various news, although the US Iraq conflict temporarily released the easing signal, the contradiction still exists, and there is certain uncertainty in the direction of the situation. In the short term, crude oil will continue to fluctuate broadly, and ethylene market will rise. As for calcium carbide, the capital return of each factory is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, the production capacity is increased, and the price is slightly increased.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on January 20, 2020, there was a total of one kind of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, with PA66 (0.09%) rising. There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are PP (- 1.53%) and natural rubber (- 0.24%). The average price of this day was – 0.11%.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club believe that: near the Spring Festival, the factory’s operating rate is at a low level, and it is difficult to make a big change in the downstream demand end, so it is expected that PVC will run smoothly before the festival.