According to statistics of business agency, as of June 23, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 16000 yuan / ton, up 133 yuan / ton, up 0.88%, down 10.61% year-on-year; POY of nylon was 13600 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton, up 0.59%, down 11.69% year-on-year; FDY of nylon was 16750 yuan / ton, stable, down 16.67% year-on-year.

As of June 22, WTI crude oil was up 12.23% from the beginning of June. In terms of crude oil, crude oil continued to rise against the background that OPEC + decided to extend the production reduction agreement to the end of July. However, due to concerns about the epidemic and negative production reduction in some countries, crude oil failed to stabilize at $40, falling to around $36 / barrel at one time in the middle of the month. According to the latest forecast issued by Bank of America, the price of WTI crude oil will rise to 39.7 USD / barrel from 32 USD / barrel in 2020. Crude oil stopped falling and rose in shock.

 
Crude oil market support is acceptable, and cyclohexanone quotation is basically stable, with some slightly reduced. In June, there was a short-term increase in chemical fiber orders. The supply and demand of cyclohexanone plants were relatively balanced, and a large number of downstream purchases led to the increase of cyclohexanone prices. Although caprolactam due to tight spot supply, prices rose sharply. However, for the cyclohexanone market, the trading volume decreased, the increase was less than that of caprolactam, and the market was passive. Recently, there was a price drop to promote the trading volume.

The inventory of upstream caprolactam is low in the early stage, which strongly supports the cost end of PA6, but the downstream orders are slowly digested and the purchase of raw materials is slowed down. Due to the firm price of raw materials, the price of nylon manufacturers has been tested again. The price of nylon POY (86d / 24F) is 13000-14000 yuan / ton, the price range of nylon FDY (40d / 12F) is 16400-17000 yuan / ton, and that of nylon DTY (70D / 24F) is 15500-16800 yuan / ton. In the past two weeks, the external quotation has been basically stable. Some of the price adjustment strategies of the manufacturers have been put in place in one step, and some of them have been running on thin water for a long time.

Business analysts believe that caprolactam and PA6 rose after maintaining high performance. Generally, the market price of nylon is determined by the cost end. With the gradual recovery of caprolactam supply, the raw material end also shows signs of loosening. It is expected that the nylon filament will slightly fall back in July.

According to the monitoring data of the business association, as of June 23, the average price of the market quotation of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream areas of the data monitoring was around 17200 yuan / ton. Compared with that of June 19, the price dropped 300 yuan / ton, or 1.71% of the increase. Compared with that of June 1, the average price rose 1667 yuan / ton, or 10.73% of the increase. During the period, the maximum amplitude of organosilicon DMC was 12.66%.

Since June, China’s Silicone Market has been on a good way, with a maximum increase of 12.66%

In the first week of June, the inventory pressure of most monomer plants is relatively small, the enterprises mainly focus on contract orders, and the quotation is firm. The mentality of buying up and not buying down in the downstream appears to need to improve, and the market focus of silicone DMC is steadily rising. On June 5, the average ex factory reference price of organosilicon DMC was 16166 yuan / ton, up 630 yuan / ton in the week, up 4.08%.

In the second week, the market of organosilicon DMC continued to rise, and many factories began to reduce the negative and pull up the market. Some monomer factories converted organosilicon DMC to self use, and the available supply continued to decrease, and the factory’s offer continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on June 12, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC has increased to 17033 yuan / ton, 430 yuan / ton in a week, or 4.50%. Compared with June 1, it rose 1500 yuan / ton, up 9.66% in two weeks.

In the third week, the rise of organosilicon DMC slowed down, up 1.55% in the week. At the beginning of the week (15th), the market as a whole was stable and strong, and the spot supply was still tight. On 18th, some factories continued to increase the factory quotation of organosilicon DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. By the end of 19 days, the factory price of organosilicon DMC was 17500 yuan / ton.

At present, more than 20 days after the continuous increase of organosilicon DMC, the market was mixed with ups and downs on the 22nd and 23rd, and the quotation of organosilicon DMC of some factories was lowered by 200-400 yuan / ton, until the low-end quotation of organosilicon fell to 16800 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of market situation led to the aggravation of downstream wait-and-see mood. It was heard that the actual transaction price of some factories had been loosened on Friday. However, at present, the inventory of organosilicon DMC is still low, and the pressure on supply is not great. Therefore, most of the manufacturers’ quotations are still firm. The quotations of a small number of manufacturers continue to increase by 200 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotations reach 18000 yuan / ton. At present, the main factory price reference of organosilicon DMC is around 17000-17800 yuan / ton. According to some organosilicon DMC data monitored by the business agency, on the 23rd, the factory price reference of organosilicon DMC is 17200 yuan / ton, which is 300 yuan / ton lower than that on the 19th of last weekend, down 1.71%; compared with that on the 1st of June, the average price is 1667 yuan / ton higher, up 10.73%, during which the maximum amplitude of organosilicon DMC is 12 .66%。

It is understood that the following are the factory prices of major enterprises in the near future and the commencement of the plant (for reference only)

Name of enterprise: total production capacity, price and operation of silicone

Elkem spark organic silicon 400000t / a 17800 yuan / T unit starts 80%

Zhejiang Xin’an Chemical Co., Ltd. 340000 tons / year, 16800 yuan / ton, normal operation

Zhejiang Hesheng 150000 T / a 17500 yuan / t normal operation

Shandong Jinling 150000 T / a 17500 yuan / T plant shutdown maintenance

Stable operation of 80000 T / a 17000 yuan / T unit in Luxi Chemical Industry Co., Ltd

Hubei Xingfa 320000 tons / year 17500 yuan / ton three sets of fully opened

Inner Mongolia Hengye cheng240000 yuan / ton 17700 yuan / ton restart

Upstream, in June, affected by the wet season, the supply of silicon metal increased, and the price of silicon metal 441 in this month was greatly affected by the supply and demand. After the increase in supply, downstream demand failed to move up synchronously, and the price of silicon metal fell this month.

At the supply end, as the southwest region gradually enters the wet season, silicon enterprises open more furnaces. In the direction of Yunnan, the starting load of Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants increases; in the direction of Sichuan, the enthusiasm of silicon plants to open furnaces increases greatly; in the direction of Xinjiang, the production problems caused by the shortage of silica and the factors of power supply equipment are basically solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

The operating rate of silicon enterprises has increased, the inventory of enterprises has increased, and the supply of metal silicon has increased. However, the demand of downstream consumers has not increased at the same time, and the overall bargaining power of silicon enterprises has shifted down.

On the one hand, the export market is still weak in June, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; on the other hand, the downstream demand in the domestic market is relatively picking up, because of the doubt about the terminal demand and the expectation of raw materials is short, the raw materials procurement is more cautious, mainly on demand, and the raw materials inventory is low.

So far, as of June 22, the price range of metal silicon in Tianjin port area is 10700-10800 yuan / ton; that in Shanghai area is 11000-11200 yuan / ton; that in Fujian area is 10100-10300 yuan / ton; that in Sichuan area is 10300-10400 yuan / ton; that in Huangpu port area is 10600-10700 yuan / ton; that in Kunming area is 10100-10300 yuan / ton 41 the price range of silicon metal is 10200-10400 yuan / ton. According to the data of business agency, on June 22, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441 × 3) was 10588 yuan / ton, down 462 yuan / ton, or 4.45%, compared with 11050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On the whole, at present, the market of organosilicon DMC is fluctuating and the wait-and-see is increasing. However, most of the manufacturers’ offers are still firm. In addition, the inventory is still low under the improvement of demand, and the supply pressure of the manufacturers is relatively small. Therefore, it is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will remain high in the short term. During this period, it is not excluded that some factories with lower prices will raise the quotation of organosilicon DMC again, so as to drive the market The market is up again. Of course, due to the current increase in market demand, it is expected that the start-up of single plant units will increase in succession. With the increase in supply, if the demand fails to improve in time, the price of organosilicon DMC may be reduced. The future market trend is closely related to the supply and demand relationship.

In June, the acetone market soared rapidly, and then the trading volume of few markets fell sharply. At present, the price in East China fell below 10000 yuan.

Acetone market trend in East China in June

In June, the acetone market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the national market average price was 8850 yuan / ton in June 1, 12250 yuan / ton in June 10, with an overall increase of 38.14%. As of June 23, the national market price was 10225 yuan / ton, down 16.36% from the middle of the year. Today, the mainstream factories have not dropped 600-1300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream East China region has reported It fell below 10000 yuan for the first time since the downturn. The offers of domestic mainstream factories and regions on the main nodes are shown in the table below. Up to now, the supply and demand averages are negative, and the market may continue to decline. Specifically:

Average price trend of acetone in the national market in June

Quotation of mainstream factories and market in June

First, the import supply increased significantly in the last ten days, and Panasonic acetone could not resist the downward trend. It is understood that since June 10, acetone has been replenished in large quantities to Hong Kong, which are nearly 2000 tons replenished from Taiwan on June 10, 5800 tons replenished from West China on June 14-15, 4000 tons replenished from West China on June 19. It is estimated that 6000 tons of imported acetone will be replenished in East China during the Dragon Boat Festival, and 2000-3000 tons of imported acetone will still be replenished at the end of the month. Therefore, the import of acetone to Hong Kong will increase significantly in the late ten days 。

In terms of domestic plants, in May, Zhongsha Tianjin and Changshu Changchun units were shut down, and the overall operating rate was not adjusted much in June. Some plants were suspended for one week for maintenance, and then resumed production, so the supply of domestic plants was relatively stable. To sum up, in June, the acetone market showed a roller coaster market, and the supply side saw that the import source had a greater impact on it.

Second, the demand side market reported a significant decline or a weak trend to stabilize, and the operating rate of the mainstream terminal factories fell sharply. If all the downstream MIBK plants continue to shut down, the offer price in MIBK market is high and strong, but the transaction in the late market is obviously insufficient. The current offer price in East China is 15000-15800 yuan / ton, which is not optimistic after the cost collapse. MMA’s market trend follows acetone’s trend. After entering the middle of June, the market tends to be stable and then its focus falls. The atmosphere of on-site negotiation is obviously insufficient.

Isopropanol, the most important terminal of the epidemic, is unsalable in the overseas market. The high price has been replaced by other alcohol killing products one after another. The price has declined significantly, and the operating rate of some factories has been reduced due to the reduction of orders in the last ten days.

The downstream BPA market, supported by the cost in the first ten days, was constantly pushed up by the offer, but after the middle of the year, it entered into the state of no market with price, then many profit traders sold at low price, and the actual transaction price of the market continued to be explored. Up to now, the negotiation range of the BPA market in East China is 11700-11900 yuan / ton, with a significant drop compared with that in the middle of the year when it rose to 12800 yuan / ton.

In the view of the business community, the acetone market is supported by the demand of the disinfection market. The price has set a historical record. After the sharp rise, there will be a big drop. The current supply is significantly improved, and the terminal disinfectant Market is not irreplaceable. The high disinfectant is bound to have substitutes. The export orders in the late ten days are obviously reduced, and the market selling phenomenon is increasing. However, the disinfectant Market is still just in demand, and the price is back to normal There is still a market after sex. Under the game of supply and demand, the demand for raw materials is also gradually stable. The business community expects that the acetone market will continue to decline, and the trading volume will increase significantly before the festival. At present, the mainstream market has fallen below 10000 yuan, and the short-term negotiation range in East China is 9600-9900 yuan / ton.

At 9:00 a.m. on June 22, 2020, low sulfur fuel oil futures were officially listed and traded in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy), a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy). According to the business club, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 opened at 2570 yuan / ton on the first day of trading and closed at 2599 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2763 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2570 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the market, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 closed higher on the first day of trading, hitting higher and falling back. Daily increase of 24859 positions.

Listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts in line with market demand

As a kind of product oil, fuel oil is a heavy residual product separated from crude oil after gasoline, kerosene and diesel in the process of petroleum processing. The fuel oil is mainly made of the cracking residual oil and straight run residual oil. It is characterized by high viscosity and contains many non hydrocarbon compounds, resins and asphaltenes. Fuel oil is mainly used in oil refining and chemical industry, transportation, construction industry, metallurgy and other industries. At present, boiler oil consumption and power generation oil consumption have been greatly reduced, while the market demand for marine oil has been growing steadily.

According to the decision of the international maritime organization, since January 1, 2020, the sulfur content of marine fuel in the world has decreased from no more than 3.5% to no more than 0.5%. The demand for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually shrunk, and the consumption of low sulfur fuel oil has rapidly increased. However, the international market has not yet formed a pricing benchmark for low sulfur fuel oil. In the past, Singapore’s regular high sulfur fuel oil was still used to price fuel oil, but the liquidity of the spot market for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually decreased, and the fuel oil market urgently needs low sulfur standard.

As a major fuel oil consumption country, China’s fuel oil consumption reached 28.37 million tons in 2019, up 15.5% year on year. In addition, since this year, the domestic demand for low sulfur bonded marine oil has rapidly increased to more than 70%, and the demand for high sulfur marine oil has shrunk to 18%. With the implementation of the fuel oil export tax rebate policy and the issuance of the first 10 million tons of fuel oil export quota, the original traditional mode of “overseas import, domestic bonded sales” will be broken. China may become the world’s largest producer of low sulfur fuel oil. Therefore, the listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts meets the market demand.

Short term low sulfur fuel price is difficult to rise

From the perspective of futures contract trading participation, high sulfur fuel oil still occupies a place in the domestic fuel oil market, which can be seen from the positions of two fuel oil. According to the business association, as of the end of the draft, the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the previous period were 533324 in 2009, while the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the international energy exchange 2101 were 24859. However, due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for marine fuel oil, the demand for high sulfur fuel oil will further shrink in the later period, and the demand for low sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise.

Although the demand for low sulfur fuel oil is increasing due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for ship fuel oil, on the one hand, the crude oil price is still at a mid low level near $40 / barrel, and the later trend of crude oil is uncertain due to geopolitical and demand changes; on the other hand, there are worries about the second outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, which casts a shadow on the future market of low sulfur fuel oil; and the spot price of low sulfur fuel oil has become large in the near future The trend is going higher. From the perspective of market mentality, it is possible to go higher and fall back later. According to the monitoring of business agency, the spot market of low sulfur bonded fuel oil in China started to rise all the way from mid May, with the price rising from 219 US dollars / ton on May 18 to 299 US dollars / ton on June 22, up 36.23%. On the whole, it is difficult for the price of low sulfur fuel to rise sharply in the near future.

As of June 22, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 13983.33 yuan / ton, up 3.66% compared with the average market price of 13490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (June 1).

Last week, Chinalco’s foreign quotations in various regions have exceeded 14000 yuan / ton. In the near future, the rise in spot price to futures has begun to narrow.

Reduction of aluminum ingot spot supply

Some domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not fully recovered since the reduction of production since late March, and some other enterprises have increased the supply of aluminum water, reducing the spot supply of aluminum ingots.

Poor export

In May 2020, China exported 382900 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%. From January to may, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 2.012 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.7%..

Future forecast

At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic market have been effectively improved, social inventory has continued to move down, the current price has risen, partially easing the pressure of domestic high-cost aluminum ingot manufacturers, the domestic demand is expected to turn warm in the second quarter, and in the later period, it is likely to maintain stability and strong operation. Business analysts predict that in June, it will be mainly in the first-line shock operation of 14000 yuan / ton.

Later focus:

Real estate completion cycle and policy support for wire and cable industry

1、 Trend analysis

On June 22, nickel price fell slightly, spot nickel price was 102750 yuan / ton, down 0.47% compared with 103233.33 yuan / ton of the previous trading day, down 9.66% compared with the beginning of the year, up 3.67% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 104190 yuan, followed by downward price pressure, closing at 101860 yuan, down 2.25%. LME3 nickel closed 0.39% lower at $12680 at the end of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Fitch, a research institution, said that demand for nickel ore and metal nickel is expected to be affected by the epidemic this year, but global nickel ore production is expected to shrink by nearly 20% this year. Nickel prices rose at the beginning of the week due to supply shortage. Then, the latest data from the world Bureau of metal statistics showed that the apparent demand of the global nickel market in the first four months of this year fell by 31400 tons year on year, during which the global nickel market oversupplied 14400 tons, Upward pressure on nickel price. In addition, the low consumption of domestic new energy vehicles has reduced the demand for nickel since this year, and the transaction volume in the downstream market has declined.

3、 Future prospects

Future forecast: weak supply and demand, coupled with the off-season demand in June, nickel price is expected to be weak in the short term.

On June 22, the domestic PTA spot market price was 3685 yuan / ton, down 0.29% from the previous day, down 38.30% year on year. PTA main futures (2009) also declined to close at 3710, down 16% or 0.43% from the previous trading day.

The raw material market is good for PTA market mentality. On June 19, crude oil market fluctuated and climbed. The settlement price of main contracts of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $39.75/barrel, up $0.91 compared with the previous trading day. The settlement price of main contracts of Brent crude oil futures was $42.19, up $0.68. PX was boosted by this, closing at $557 / T FOB South Korea and $577 / T CFR China in Asia, up $22 / T from the previous day.

Production enterprise’s unit capacity (10000 tons / year) operation trend of the unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 65 plans to overhaul by the end of June 2020

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 9, 60, restart to be determined

220 stop at night on May 19, start heating and restart on June 18, but no material has been discharged so far

Shanghai Petrochemical entered maintenance on May 18, and was restarted on the afternoon of June 19, but it has not been discharged so far

Tianjin Petrochemical 34 shut down for maintenance on April 17 and restart to be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical 32.5 April 19-july 22, 2019 shutdown for maintenance

Pengwei Petrochemical 90 stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Fuhaichuang 450 took off and landed negative alkali washing on June 8, and the load increased on June 12

However, the current PTA social inventory is close to 4 million tons, which is still at a high level. In terms of plant, with the 2.2 million ton plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. starting to heat up and restart on the 18th, the 400000 ton plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was re fed on the 21st. Meanwhile, the new 2.5 million ton plant of Hengli at the end of the month is expected to be put into operation, and PTA market supply will increase periodically, which is not conducive to inventory digestion. In addition, PTA processing fee is still close to 700 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer is still in a good profit state, which does not exclude the possibility of postponement of factory maintenance plan.

The production and marketing of downstream polyester market is flat, and the current operating rate is close to 85%. On June 20, Shenghong 250000 tons of polyester was put into production for discharging, Yisheng Hainan 500000 tons of qualified products new device load was close to 50%, and Anhui Jinzhai new fiber 120000 tons of staple fiber plan was restarted. With the discharging and restarting, the operating rate will be improved to some extent. However, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal textile and weaving market has gradually deepened, and it is even more difficult when it is in the off-season of a special year. Most of the weaving enterprises have started to significantly reduce the start-up rate, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has again slightly dropped to below 63%. In terms of price, the market of various products in polyester filament market showed a slight downward trend, of which the decline of polyester FDY on the 22nd day was 1.69%, and the quotation of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6150-6450 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that crude oil is still in the period of production reduction, and PX has a strong trend in the near future, which is supported by PTA driven by cost. However, in the near future, the restart of its own devices and the production of new capacity are expected to be bad for the market. At the same time, at the end of textile consumption level, domestic demand is reduced, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in export sales. In the future, there is a lack of further improvement power. It is expected that PTA prices will weaken and be more likely to be adjusted.

On June 19, crude benzene commodity index was 45.26, down 2.19 points from yesterday, 65.67% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 48.20% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

From June 15 to 19, 2020, the weekly crude benzene Market in Japan recovered. The factory price in North China was 3101.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 6.82% on a weekly basis.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in June 2020

Price adjustment amount after date increase unit: yuan / ton

June 5 3600 + 100 yuan / ton

June 10 3700 + 100 yuan / ton

June 15, 3600-100 yuan / ton

June 19, 3550-50 yuan / ton

This week, the price of crude benzene in China was basically adjusted back to the level at the beginning of the month. This week, Sinopec North China lowered the price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative reduction of 150 yuan / ton. Now, the price is 3550 yuan / ton. The external market of pure benzene also continued to decline this week, which affected the overall mentality of crude benzene market. In addition, after the price of crude benzene was increased on November 11, the cost pressure of downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises increased, and the crude resistance to high prices was heavy, the market mentality was poor, the bearish atmosphere was strong, and the receiving situation was not good. Crude benzene fundamentals bear pressure. On Thursday, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong Province was 2885 yuan / ton, 215 yuan / ton lower than last week.

This week’s coking enterprises started work better than last week. The crude benzene supply is relatively stable, and the overall inventory is on the high side. The cost pressure of downstream hydrobenzene enterprises has increased in the near future. With the decline of comprehensive starting level of downstream styrene and other products, the demand for hydrobenzene is weak, and the price of hydrobenzene is down this week. As of Friday, the price of hydrobenzene in Shandong Province was about 3350-3450 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from last week.

The business community in the aftermarket thinks that the cost pressure of the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises is relatively large, the demand is weak, the crude benzene fundamentals are under pressure, and the bearish sentiment in the field is relatively strong, and it is expected that the price in the aftermarket will still be slightly lower.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 13766.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 13200 yuan / ton, and the price fell within the week by 4.12%.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic isopropanol prices fell this week. In June, the market price of raw acetone remained high, and the price of isopropanol remained high. In the international market, isopropanol in the U.S. continued to decline, while isopropanol in Europe ended to decline. The demand of overseas disinfectant market gradually sought for more substitutes, and the overseas orders decreased. As a result, the operating rate of isopropanol plants fell, and the price decreased. Up to now, about 12000-13300 yuan / ton of isopropanol negotiation area in Shandong Province and 12700-13500 yuan / ton of isopropanol negotiation area in Jiangsu Province in China. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 13400-13600 yuan / ton. Recently, export orders decreased, and isopropanol benefits slowed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the upstream market price of acetone is rising. After a short decline in East China this week, many terminals just need to be replenished. At present, the port arrival volume is still small, and the domestic factory supply is limited. The market negotiation pushed up 200 yuan / ton to 10500-10700 yuan / ton. For isopropanol, the cost pressure is large, and some manufacturers have stopped production and maintenance.

In terms of raw propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene in China was 6604.55 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 6875.55 yuan / ton. The price was increased by 4.1% in the week. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. The profit of propylene isopropanol is still very considerable. Due to the decrease of foreign trade orders, the price will be reduced accordingly.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: the price of raw acetone is high and the cost is under pressure. In terms of demand, the favorable foreign trade slowed down, export orders were significantly reduced, domestic trade enquiries were more frequent, wait-and-see was the main thing, and taking goods was very cautious. At present, isopropanol plant in acetone process is under pressure, and the manufacturers have been overhauling successively. The profit of isopropanol produced by propylene method is large, and the price can be lowered. On the whole, in the short term, the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to decline, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

On June 19, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.04% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.14% from 85.54, the lowest point on June 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

The data shows that the overall market of Polyacrylamide in May shows a downward trend; compared with the market at the end of May, the market of polyacrylamide (cation, molecular weight 12 million) stopped falling and stabilized in the first and middle of June. On June 1, 2020, the market mainstream quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton, and on June 19, the market mainstream quotation is about 14020 yuan / ton, with a correction rate of 0.14%, basically in a stable state.

First, from the perspective of industrial chain. Upstream acrylonitrile: from January to June 2020, the domestic market price first fell sharply, and then continued to callback to a certain extent. From the second half of April, it stopped falling at 6350 yuan / ton. After stabilizing for half a month, it started to rebound from May. The half month quotation went up by 800 yuan / ton to 7150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in the second half was about 8000 yuan / ton. From June to now, after several small rebounds, it is currently stable at about 8550 yuan / ton. Downstream demand: since 2020, polyacrylamide manufacturers have always reflected that business is difficult to do, cooperation projects of downstream construction enterprises have been reduced, and the survival of water treatment engineering enterprises is difficult. At present, the local situation of epidemic situation is again severe, and the manufacturers do not dare to expect better market.

Secondly, from the perspective of manufacturer’s production. It is found that one of the main producing areas of polyacrylamide, Henan Province, has normal production and high inventory. The price of the main product specifications rebounded slightly in the second half of the month, and the basic stability is maintained: the price of cation and molecular weight 12 million is 14000-15000 yuan / ton; the price of anion and molecular weight 10 million is 8000-9000 yuan / ton, the price of molecular weight 12 million is 8800-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of molecular weight 14 million solid particles is reported Price: 9400-10000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 16 million solid particles: 9800-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18 million solid particles: 10400-11000 yuan / ton, molecular weight: 18-20 million powder: 12000-12500 yuan / ton, non-ionic: 12000-13000 yuan / ton, and some specifications: 300-400 yuan / ton. Restricted by the weak downstream demand and the huge sales pressure of manufacturers, the company said that there is not much profit at the current price.

Third, from the perspective of industry. Since 2020, the prosperity of environmental water treatment industry is poor. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production area stopped production and delayed resumption of work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area gradually returned to work. In March, the logistics returned to normal, mainly consuming inventory. In April, the manufacturer’s survival was normal, the raw material cost was partially reduced and the demand was weak, resulting in the high inventory of the manufacturer. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery charge, the price of raw materials such as acrylonitrile rose, the factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there was a lot of inventory; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask” industrial chain relationship, the capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which more directly led to the firmness of acrylonitrile price. From June to now, the price of acrylonitrile has rebounded, but the range is relatively small. According to the introduction of the manufacturer, whether or not the raw materials are hoarded has different impact on the production cost. From the perspective of the whole industry, the poor demand is the fatal injury of the market.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business community shows that the price of the upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been slightly increased since June, while the downstream demand side has been stagnant, the enterprise has a large shipping pressure and a small profit margin. In the future, the impact of the epidemic on the market is a factor that the market is relatively worried about, and the industry is afraid of encountering an even worse situation. At present, the price may fluctuate slightly, but the market has not improved greatly.