At 9:00 a.m. on June 22, 2020, low sulfur fuel oil futures were officially listed and traded in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy), a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the previous energy). According to the business club, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 opened at 2570 yuan / ton on the first day of trading and closed at 2599 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2763 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2570 yuan / ton. From the perspective of the market, the main contract of low sulfur fuel oil 2101 closed higher on the first day of trading, hitting higher and falling back. Daily increase of 24859 positions.
Listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts in line with market demand
| Chitosan oligosaccharide |
As a kind of product oil, fuel oil is a heavy residual product separated from crude oil after gasoline, kerosene and diesel in the process of petroleum processing. The fuel oil is mainly made of the cracking residual oil and straight run residual oil. It is characterized by high viscosity and contains many non hydrocarbon compounds, resins and asphaltenes. Fuel oil is mainly used in oil refining and chemical industry, transportation, construction industry, metallurgy and other industries. At present, boiler oil consumption and power generation oil consumption have been greatly reduced, while the market demand for marine oil has been growing steadily.
According to the decision of the international maritime organization, since January 1, 2020, the sulfur content of marine fuel in the world has decreased from no more than 3.5% to no more than 0.5%. The demand for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually shrunk, and the consumption of low sulfur fuel oil has rapidly increased. However, the international market has not yet formed a pricing benchmark for low sulfur fuel oil. In the past, Singapore’s regular high sulfur fuel oil was still used to price fuel oil, but the liquidity of the spot market for high sulfur fuel oil has gradually decreased, and the fuel oil market urgently needs low sulfur standard.
As a major fuel oil consumption country, China’s fuel oil consumption reached 28.37 million tons in 2019, up 15.5% year on year. In addition, since this year, the domestic demand for low sulfur bonded marine oil has rapidly increased to more than 70%, and the demand for high sulfur marine oil has shrunk to 18%. With the implementation of the fuel oil export tax rebate policy and the issuance of the first 10 million tons of fuel oil export quota, the original traditional mode of “overseas import, domestic bonded sales” will be broken. China may become the world’s largest producer of low sulfur fuel oil. Therefore, the listing of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts meets the market demand.
Short term low sulfur fuel price is difficult to rise
| Potassium monopersulfate |
From the perspective of futures contract trading participation, high sulfur fuel oil still occupies a place in the domestic fuel oil market, which can be seen from the positions of two fuel oil. According to the business association, as of the end of the draft, the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the previous period were 533324 in 2009, while the positions of the main fuel futures contracts of the international energy exchange 2101 were 24859. However, due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for marine fuel oil, the demand for high sulfur fuel oil will further shrink in the later period, and the demand for low sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise.
Although the demand for low sulfur fuel oil is increasing due to the impact of IMO’s low sulfur policy for ship fuel oil, on the one hand, the crude oil price is still at a mid low level near $40 / barrel, and the later trend of crude oil is uncertain due to geopolitical and demand changes; on the other hand, there are worries about the second outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, which casts a shadow on the future market of low sulfur fuel oil; and the spot price of low sulfur fuel oil has become large in the near future The trend is going higher. From the perspective of market mentality, it is possible to go higher and fall back later. According to the monitoring of business agency, the spot market of low sulfur bonded fuel oil in China started to rise all the way from mid May, with the price rising from 219 US dollars / ton on May 18 to 299 US dollars / ton on June 22, up 36.23%. On the whole, it is difficult for the price of low sulfur fuel to rise sharply in the near future.
| ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate) |