In late September 2025, the domestic melamine market did not experience the expected “Golden September” trend, but instead continued the weak and bearish pattern of the previous period, with an overall bearish market atmosphere and low trading activity.
Market Overview:
| Melamine |
Price level: As of September 23, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5512.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton). The actual transaction price of some factories to ensure shipment can be negotiated, and the price focus is constantly shifting downwards.
Transaction atmosphere: Downstream and traders have extremely poor purchasing enthusiasm, generally holding a wait-and-see attitude of “buying up and not buying down”. New market transactions are mostly sporadic small orders, making it difficult to form effective support. Real time trading in the market is quiet, showing a typical “price but no market” characteristic.
Supply side:
Although there were some short-term shutdowns or maintenance of individual devices during this period, the overall operating rate of melamine enterprises nationwide remained at a relatively high level of 65% to 70%. This means that there is ample supply of spot goods in the market.
Due to the much slower shipping speed than production speed, the inventory level of production enterprises is gradually increasing, and some manufacturers are facing certain inventory pressure. In order to alleviate inventory and financial pressure, manufacturers have had to attract orders by lowering prices or increasing discounts, thereby exacerbating the price decline.
Demand side:
The main consumer areas of melamine are sheet metal, coatings, and molding powder, among which the sheet metal industry is highly correlated with the prosperity of the real estate industry. The current real estate industry is still in a period of adjustment, with limited driving force on new home decoration and furniture consumption, resulting in a sustained low demand for melamine from panel factories.
The economic growth in overseas markets has slowed down, and the import demand for products containing melamine in China (such as laminated boards, tableware, etc.) has not shown significant improvement. The diversion effect of export markets on domestic demand has weakened.
Faced with a continuously declining market, downstream customers generally believe that prices have not yet bottomed out, so their procurement strategies are extremely cautious, mainly focusing on consuming existing inventory and waiting for clearer bottom signals, which makes the demand side even worse.
Cost side:
The urea market is deadlocked: as of September 22, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society is 1670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The urea market, as the main raw material, is also in a state of supply and demand game, with narrow fluctuations in prices. There has been no significant increase to provide strong cost support for melamine, nor has there been a significant improvement in production profits brought about by a sharp decline. This “weakly stable” raw material situation has caused the price of melamine to lose a key support anchor point.
Market mentality: Currently, market participants generally have a pessimistic mentality. Manufacturers lack confidence in the future market and actively focus on shipping; However, intermediaries and downstream factories are mostly bearish on the future market and have a low willingness to operate.
In summary, the “weak continuation” of the melamine market this week is the inevitable result of the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and weak cost factors. The market is undergoing a difficult rebalancing process, and it is necessary to closely monitor the upstream urea price trend and the adjustment of the operating rate of melamine factories in the future.
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