1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week and then fell back, with 7305 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7293 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 0.16%; while the weekly high price was 7323 yuan / ton on Thursday, with a weekly decline of 0.41%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. On the 4th, the price was increased by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now, the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

On January 6, the crude oil price rose obviously, but on January 7, it still rose, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

This week, the spot price of PP fell after rising, with no rise or fall, and the weekly amplitude was 0.41%, which had little impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market is stable, the impact on propylene is limited.

This week, the market of propylene oxide was stable after going up continuously, with a weekly increase of 1.05%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 1.33%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price all the way down, with a weekly drop of 10.78%, which has a more obvious suppression effect on propylene.

Octanol market is also all the way down this week, with a weekly decline of 6.80%, which also has a negative effect on propylene.

Isopropanol market also fell all the way this week, with a weekly decline of 8.47%, which also had a negative impact on propylene.

In the middle of this week, phenol in East China fell significantly and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 3.36% and a weekly amplitude of 3.51%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

This week, acetone in East China went down all the way, with a weekly drop of 13.28%, which has a significant suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, the current inventory is general, and the crude oil price has risen slightly, but I don’t know the strength of the future upward trend. The operation rate of the downstream market has risen slightly, and most of the negative ones are occupied. Therefore, it is expected that the recent propylene price will be mainly affected by the game between the crude oil market and the downstream trend.

Silver and gold both plummeted on Friday night

1. Domestic spot silver plummeted by 8.96% and gold plummeted by 3.67%

According to the tracking data of business news agency, on January 8, 2021, domestic precious metal spot gold and silver plummeted at night. As of 02:30 on January 9, the latest price of Au (T + D) was 381.01 yuan / g, down 3.67%, and the latest price of Ag (T + D) was 5098 yuan / kg, down 8.96%.

2. Ag2102, the main domestic futures contract, plummeted by 9.12% and au2102 by 3.87%

As of 02:30 on the 9th, the latest price of main contract au2012 dropped by 15.38 yuan / g to 381.01 yuan / g, or 3.87%; the latest price of main contract au2016 dropped by 15.56 yuan / g to 383.84 yuan / g, or 3.90%; the latest price of main contract ag2102 dropped by 514 yuan / kg to 5125 yuan / kg, or 9.12%; the latest price of main contract ag2106 dropped by 9.12% Down 531 yuan / kg to 5175 yuan / kg, or 9.31%.

3. The price of CME precious metals stopped falling and recovered slightly in non China trading period

In the non China trading session, at about 16:00 Beijing time on the 8th, the price of precious metals in the external market plummeted and dived sharply, followed by the low opening of the domestic night market; after the end of the domestic night market, the price of precious metals in the external market stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

News factors

1. U.S. non farm data as expected

At 21:30 Beijing time on January 8, the U.S. Department of labor updated the non-agricultural employment data for December 2020, showing that in December 2020, the number of non-agricultural workers decreased by 140000, expected to increase by 50000, the former value increased by 245000, and the unemployment rate was 6.7%.

After 22 million jobs were lost in the job market in March / April 2020, 140000 jobs were lost again in December, and 12 million jobs were recovered in the year. The data in June is the most optimistic, as shown in the figure below

 
According to the ADP data of “small non-agricultural” in December, the number of employees in December decreased by 123000, far lower than the expected increase of 75000 and the previous increase of 307000. Although the US ism non manufacturing PMI recorded 57.2 in December, a new high since September last year, the ISM employment index reversed the upward trend of the previous three months and dropped to 48.2. Ism reported that manufacturing employment increased during the month, but employment in the service sector decreased.

2. Trump’s Twitter account is permanently suspended, Biden’s trillion dollar stimulus plan is expected to strengthen

Trump’s Twitter account has been permanently suspended. Biden said that he would talk to House Speaker Pelosi and Democratic leaders on January 9, Beijing time, and propose a comprehensive stimulus package. The number will be very “large”. Details of the stimulus plan, which is expected to be released next Thursday, will be trillions of dollars in size. Biden said he would use financial means to fight the epidemic, vaccinate teachers with new crowns and insist on wearing masks in all federal jurisdictions.

The market began to look forward to the post trump era. However, trump said that he would seek the possibility of establishing his own platform. The US political situation may still have a game before trump is “cool”.

3. In November, the global central bank’s net sales showed a momentum recently

According to the latest data released in January 2021, from January to November 2020, the global central banks’ overall net purchase of gold showed a trend of net sales in the near future, including the first net sales in August and September, the return in October, and the net sales in November. The monthly increase and decrease of global central banks’ gold reserves are as follows:

In November, the central banks selling gold were Turkey (20.9 tons) and Mongolia (2.4 tons); the central banks buying gold were Uzbekistan (8.4 tons), Qatar (3.1 tons), India (2.8 tons), Kazakhstan (1.7 tons) and Ukraine (0.6 tons). As of November 2020, the world’s official gold reserves totaled 35191.1 tons. The top 15 official gold reserves in the world are as follows:

Future forecast

The price of precious metal gold and silver continued to rise in December. According to the data of business news agency, the monthly increase of domestic spot gold was 6.57%, and the monthly increase of spot silver was 19.44%. In the recent three trading days, the price of precious metal began to fluctuate horizontally and downward. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business news agency, believes that before the crash, the price touched the previous high shock range, and the resistance of upward attack increased. On the other hand, the profit-making disk surged sharply, and the demand for profit-making funds out of the horizontal situation increased. There was a slight flurry, and the funds squeezed each other to stop the profit. At present, with half of the increase in December, the price may gradually stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that the stop falling level in the near future will be higher than that at the end of November.

The year 2020 has passed quietly. We have experienced too many hardships and witnessed one historical moment after another. The outbreak of global health events, the sudden collapse of international crude oil, the five fusions of the U.S. stock market, and so on, all tell the extraordinary story of 2020. From the perspective of octanol, please step into the octanol market in 2020 with the pace of octanol analysts of business clubs, and take a look at the experience of 2020 from the perspective of octanol.

Price trend of Shandong octanol in 2020

As can be seen from the above figure, in 2020, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province decreased slightly at the beginning of the year, rebounded to the bottom in the middle of the year, and tended to be stable. At the end of the year, it soared to the sky, reaching the highest price in five years. As of December 31, the average ex factory price quoted by mainstream octanol manufacturers was 11833.33 yuan / ton, up 4866.66 yuan / ton or 69.86% compared with 6966.67 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the year. It can be seen from the trend chart that the highest price of octanol in 2020 appeared on December 21, with an average price of 11866.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on April 3, with an average price of 5066.67 yuan / ton, the lowest in four years. The price difference was 6800.00 yuan / ton, and the amplitude was 134.21%.

【2】 Shandong octanol price fell 22.49% in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2020, the price of octanol dropped precipitously. The ex factory price of octanol dropped from 6966.67 yuan / ton on January 1 to 5400.00 yuan / ton on March 31, and the quoted price dropped by 1566.67 yuan / ton, or 22.49%. Overall, Shandong octanol market fell significantly in the first quarter. In March 2020, the ex factory quotation of octanol decreased from 6583.33 yuan / ton on March 1 to 5400.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a decrease of 1183.33 yuan / ton, the largest monthly decrease of 17.97%.

In the first quarter of 2020, public health incidents suddenly broke out, and China actively adopted the measures of flow control and isolation, but the production and sales of octanol were affected, especially the demand side declined seriously, the terminal shut down was more and the downstream market returned slowly, and the demand recovery was less than expected. In March, Saudi Arabia waged a big crude oil price war, international crude oil plummeted and the US stock market broke for the fifth time. A 7% drop in the S & P 500 triggered a circuit breaker and suspended trading for 15 minutes. The Dow also fell below the 20000 mark, erasing gains over the past three years. The NASDAQ fell 6.30%. The sharp drop in crude oil exacerbated the deep decline in octanol prices. Coupled with the demand worries caused by public health incidents, the global economy is facing huge downward pressure and panic spread. In the first quarter, the price of Shandong octanol was low, and the domestic octanol market hit the low level in the year at the end of March and the beginning of April.

【3】 The price of Shandong octanol rose 42.72% in the second quarter

In the second quarter of 2020, the market of octanol fluctuated and rose as a whole. The ex factory price rose from 5266.67 yuan / ton on April 1 to 7516.67 yuan / ton on June 30, up 2250.00 yuan / ton, or 42.72%. On the whole, the supply was less than demand, which was the main factor for the larger growth of octanol market..

In the second quarter of 2020, the spot supply of Shandong octanol market was in short supply, the downstream demand enthusiasm was strong, and the domestic octanol market price bottomed out and rebounded. In April, China’s epidemic prevention and control achieved a phased victory, the resumption of production and work was promoted rapidly, and the demand side was gradually released. Moreover, the international oil price bottomed out and rebounded in April, and the domestic chemical market as a whole was in a good situation. From May to June, the start-up load of downstream DOP increased to a medium high level, the domestic octanol market demand improved significantly, the market enthusiasm was high, and the domestic octanol market rose broadly. The current domestic octanol market price has rebounded and exceeded the average price at the beginning of the year. In the second quarter, Hualu Hengsheng octanol plant was overhauled, Shandong Jianlan plant was short stopped, the starting load was not high, and the domestic octanol market was short of spot supply.

【4】 In the third quarter, the price of Shandong octanol fluctuated and fell by 1.11%

In the third quarter of 2020, octanol market fell first and then rose. The ex factory price of octanol dropped from 7516.67 yuan / ton on July 1 to 6916.67 yuan / ton on August 28, down 600.00 yuan / ton, down 7.98%; then it rose to 7416.67 yuan / ton on September 18, up 500.00 yuan / ton, up 7.23%. Finally, the price of 7420 yuan / ton was maintained until the end of the quarter. Overall, octanol market in the third quarter fell by 1.11%.

In the third quarter of 2020, the overall operating rate of the downstream DOP plant remained at a high level, but the propylene raw material fluctuated horizontally in the same period, so it was difficult to form a support on the cost side, and the domestic octanol market was mainly frozen. Downstream DOP, DOTP cost pressure is larger, market prices follow octanol rise, the two form support each other. In the middle and late September, due to the centralized stocking of downstream factories before the National Day holiday, the atmosphere of market negotiation improved, and the focus of real order negotiation began to move up gradually.

【5】 The price of Shandong octanol rose 59.19% in the fourth quarter

In the fourth quarter of 2020, octanol market rose sharply. The ex factory price of octanol increased from 7433.33 yuan / ton on October 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on December 31, and the quoted price increased by 4400.00 yuan / ton, or 59.19%. Overall, the octanol market rose sharply in the fourth quarter and stabilized at the end of the quarter. In December 2020, the ex factory quotation of octanol increased from 9166.67 yuan / ton on December 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 2666.66 yuan / ton, the biggest monthly increase in 2020, with an increase of 29.09%.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the domestic octanol market rose to the highest level in five years due to the centralized maintenance of overseas octanol plants, the positive driving force of n-butanol supply and the positive support of domestic DOP and DOTP demand. In November, the octanol units of LG and Hanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. were overhauled intensively, resulting in a sharp decline in domestic octanol imports. In December, the n-butanol unit in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was forced to shut down. Due to the impact of domestic environmental protection, the n-butanol plants in North China reduced the operating rate, indirectly driving the octanol market. In late November, the operation rate of downstream plasticizer plants bottomed out and rebounded, and the demand side in the field performed relatively well. Constrained by the dual pressure of demand side and cost side, the domestic octanol market price exceeded the 10000 yuan mark. However, due to the increase of environmental protection and safety inspection in December, domestic plasticizer factories slightly reduced the negative operation, and the digestion capacity of downstream high price raw materials decreased. The domestic octanol market fell slightly at the end of the year, but the overall price was still significantly higher than that at the beginning of the year.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market was mainly volatile in December, with slight adjustment of various types of products. As of January 1 of the new year, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 29400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.34% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

PA66 upstream adipic acid, according to the data of the business community block list, the domestic adipic acid market fluctuated downward in December, with a price drop of 2.90%. In terms of trading, many regions are in the state of exchanging price for quantity on site. And the majority of dealers offer down, so that more operations. In terms of market supply, the factory’s operating rate remained about 80% in December, the supply of goods in the market was relatively sufficient, and there was a sign that the inventory of the factory was gradually excessive to the dealers, so the dealers also showed signs of accumulating the inventory at high prices. It can not be ruled out that in the later stage, due to the overstocking of inventory, they continued to make profits to clear the inventory. In the later stage, the rising market of adipic acid is basically near the end, and it is still high volatility at present. It is expected that adipic acid will maintain high level in the near future, or slightly loose, and the smooth transition before the festival.

Adipic acid generally supports the cost of PA66. In terms of supply, the operation rate of Zhejiang Huafeng increased in December, but the improvement of the overall operation rate of domestic production line is limited, and the factory has no pressure to accumulate storage, so the market supporting mentality is still strong. The situation of spot shortage in the domestic spot market is also limited. In general, the supply of goods is still dominated by old customers in supply contracts. The supply in the market remains tight, and there is still a shortage of goods. In the early stage, BASF, DuPont, aoshengde and other major international companies frequently issued price adjustment notices, and raised the price of PA66. The replenishment operation of downstream plants is biased towards rigid demand, the high price of PA66 also increases the pressure on downstream costs, and the operation is mainly volatile in December

Business analysts believe: PA66 domestic market trend in December shock, the price fell slightly. The market of upstream products has dropped and is generally stable. The cost support for PA66 is acceptable. Downstream take goods just need to operate, high price goods conflict. However, the spot market is still tight, and the terminals follow up passively. At the beginning of this month, new goods were cautiously low, resulting in a certain decline. However, the current raw material supply is tightening, and PA66 cost pressure is high. It is expected that PA66 market will remain high in the short term.

441 silicon price trend

On January 5, 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) moved down. According to the data of business news agency, on January 5, the average market price of domestic metallic silicon (441) was 13650 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.97% compared with the average market price of 13925 yuan / ton in early December (12.1), and a decrease of 0.79% compared with the average market price of 13758.33 yuan / ton in early December (1.1).

On May 5, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 12900-13000 yuan / ton, in Sichuan 13400-13500 yuan / ton, in Kunming 13400-13500 yuan / ton, in Shanghai 14400-14600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin 13800-13900 yuan / ton, in Huangpu 13600-13800 yuan / ton 。

At present, the production of Southwest silicon plant has increased, the operating rate has moved down month on month, and the output of silicon metal has moved down. However, based on the weakening of export inquiry, the price has gone down, the domestic downstream buy up but not buy down, most of them wait and see, and just need to replenish the warehouse.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, hydrogen peroxide ended its sharp drop in November in December, the supply was tight, the terminal demand increased, hydrogen peroxide returned to the rising channel, and the price continued to rise. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1310 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide rose to 1430 yuan / ton, up 9.16%.

According to the monthly K-bar chart of hydrogen peroxide from January to December in 2020, hydrogen peroxide decreased for 7 months and increased for 5 months. The biggest increase was in October, up 35.09%. The biggest drop was 18.21% in February. In the first half of the year, the price fell for four consecutive months, and in the second half of the year, it performed well. In November, the price dropped by nearly 10%, and in December, hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 9%.

Terminal caprolactam power hydrogen peroxide Market Returns to rise

Since December, the terminal caprolactam market has been on the rise because the manufacturers have been stopping for maintenance, and the supply is tight. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has increased, and the inventory of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is at a low level. In addition, the hydrogen peroxide decline in November is relatively large, and the manufacturers are very worried about the price. The price of hydrogen peroxide began to pick up, and the market continued to rise. On December 31, the price of hydrogen peroxide rose by 9.16% compared with the beginning of the month.

Future prospects

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of business news agency believe that: after new year’s day and the Spring Festival is approaching, caprolactam and papermaking industry manufacturers have stopped for maintenance in succession, terminal demand has fallen, and hydrogen peroxide prices have been callback in the future.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data of business news agency, on December 31, the average price of silver in the morning market was 5550 yuan / kg, up 17.71% from the average price of 4715 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1), 26.82% from the spot price of 4376.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), 88.60% from the trough price of 2942.67 yuan / kg in the year (3.19), and 88.60% from the peak price of (8.11) in the year The spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg, down 17.27%.

The spot price of gold was (342.71%) yuan higher than the spot price at the beginning of the year, and the spot price of gold was (341.34%) yuan higher than the spot price at the beginning of the year.

Price index of precious metals

On December 31, the silver commodity index was 63.30, up 0.83 points from yesterday, down 38.40% from 102.76 points (2011-09-06), the highest point in the cycle, and up 88.62% from 33.56 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

On December 31, the gold commodity index was 104.33, up 0.37 points from yesterday, down 12.34% from 119.02 points (2020-08-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 80.88% from 57.68 points, the lowest point on August 2, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In December, the precious metal market was uncertain

In December, the price of precious metals stopped falling and rose, among which the price of silver rose by 17.71% and the price of gold rose by 5.36%.

The price rise in the early stage was mainly due to the deterioration of vaccine effect in overseas epidemic news (especially the mutation of the British virus strain), the short-term failure of market optimism, and Trump’s signing of the epidemic stimulus and poverty relief act, as well as the endless emergence of easing policies by central banks.

At present, the price platform is volatile, and the uncertainty of the future market is strengthened.

Recent news:

The leaders of China and the EU jointly announced the completion of the China EU investment agreement negotiations on schedule;

Michelle Michel, President of the European Council, Frederick von draen, President of the European Commission and British Prime Minister Johnson all signed the agreement on Trade and cooperation between Britain and Europe one after another. After signing, the agreement will be implemented on January 1, 2021;

As tax incentives and epidemic driven demand for big houses continue to boost demand, UK house prices rose faster than expected in December, the biggest annual increase in six years. According to the data, the UK nationwide house price index rose 0.8% month on month in December, expected to rise 0.4% and the previous value rose 0.9%; it rose 7.3% year on year, expected to rise 6.7% and the previous value rose 6.5%;

Us wholesale inventories in November decreased by 0.1% on a month on month basis, expected to increase by 0.6% and the previous value increased by 1.1%.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9530 yuan / ton, up 0.63% from 9470 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 6.93% year on year.

Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid continues to rise. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 9300-9800 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly rising. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the floor price continues to rise.

First of all, the market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, was temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2718.89 yuan / ton, which was flat this week. Recently, the domestic fluorite spot supply was tight. As the temperature dropped, some manufacturers in the North stopped their plants, the supply in the yard was slightly tight, and the domestic fluorite price trend was temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite on the floor was supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose due to the positive support.

The domestic refrigerant market rose slightly this week. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market is general, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry’s trend has risen, and the market of various types of refrigerants has risen slightly. However, the manufacturer’s shipment is under pressure, the sales pressure is large, the increase of raw material hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the support force is general. The refrigerant export volume has little change, and the price is low The output of air conditioner is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. As a whole, the refrigerant market is generally supported by favorable factors, the price will remain low or become normal, and the focus of transaction will remain low. At present, the load of R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment, the delivery of goods is not smooth, and the actual transaction focus rises slightly. Some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiations is 13500-15500 yuan / ton. The market trend of domestic R134a rose slightly, but the auto industry continued to be depressed, and the transaction atmosphere was light. The supply of goods on the floor is sufficient, and the market will be affected by new production capacity in the future. The competition is fierce, and the supply side is gradually bad. The price is slightly higher, but the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher.

Third: the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight. Some hydrofluoric acid plants are overhauled in the hydrofluoric acid yard, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rises slightly. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 9500-10000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9300-9800 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly rising, and the manufacturers reflect that they are bullish in the near future, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market in the later period has a greater driving force.

In general, due to the high price of raw material fluorite, the price of downstream refrigerants rose slightly. In addition, due to the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of business society, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly.

Gold price increased by 14.64% and 33.94% during the year

According to the tracking data of business news agency, as of December 31, the spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, an annual increase of 14.64% compared with 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), an increase of 18.39% compared with 331.75 yuan / g at the trough of the year (3.19), and a decrease of 12.34% compared with 448 yuan / g at the peak of the year (8.7).

In 2020, the spot gold price will increase by 14.64% in the year, and the amplitude will be as high as 33.94% in the year (the above data are calculated based on the price at the beginning of the year). The monthly price of spot gold in 2020 is as follows:

During the year, the trend of gold price generally showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and then rising in the last month. The downward correction bands were concentrated in the first ten days of March, the middle ten days of August, the middle and last ten days of September, and November; The downward adjustment in March was mainly based on the general decline of assets under the pressure of US dollar liquidity under the influence of the epidemic news, followed by the influx of various funds to hedge against risks, the surge of gold investment demand, and the surge of gold ETF positions. On August 7, the gold price reached an all-time high of nearly 450 yuan / g, and the early profit taking funds began to take profits. In addition, the vaccine news, the US stimulus fiscal deadlock and other factors In December, affected by the news of the new virus strain in the UK, the optimistic expectation of vaccine was greatly reduced, and the risk aversion began to pick up again. (see figure below)

Five years of upward channel to a new record

Looking at the historical price data of gold in the past 10 years, the current gold price is at a cyclical low. Since August 2, 2015, the upward channel, especially since May 2019, the gold price has entered a fast rising channel, with the price rising from 280.55 yuan / g to 392.70 yuan / g, an increase of 39.98% (taking the gold price on May 1, 2019 as the benchmark price).

At present, the gold price is 217.10 yuan / g, an increase of 80.88% compared with the low in recent 10 years; the high in this year is 448 yuan / g, an increase of 106.36% compared with the low in recent 10 years.

According to the commodity index analysis system of business community, the gold commodity index on December 31 was 104.33, down 12.34% from the highest point of 119.02 points (2020-08-07) in the cycle, and up 80.88% from the lowest point of 57.68 points on August 2, 2015. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

To lengthen the cycle, according to the Comex gold futures price data, after the last peak fall, the gold price has entered the upward channel in the past five years, and reached a historical high again in August 2020. At present, the price is still relatively high in history.

The supply reduction in 2020 is mainly reflected in the second quarter

In 2017-2020, the global gold quarterly supply is between 1028-1265 tons; the annual supply is generally increasing in 2017-2019; in the second quarter of 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the global quarterly supply is down 15.5% year on year; in the third quarter of 2020, the global quarterly supply is down 3.3% year on year. In the first three quarters of 2020, the global gold supply decreased by 195.24 tons compared with the same period last year, of which 188.67 tons decreased in the second quarter compared with the same period last year.

Investment demand leading price trend in 2020

According to the data of the world gold association, the total global demand for gold in the first half of 2020 was 2076 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Among them, the demand for gold bars and gold coins was 397 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17%; the global demand for gold ornaments was 572 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46%; the demand for science and technology gold was 140 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13%; the net purchase volume of central banks was 233 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39%; the increment of gold ETF was 734 tons.

In the third quarter, the demand for gold bars and gold coins, which are relative to investment demand, increased sharply with the rapid rise of gold price in the early stage. With the help of profit-making effect, the retail investment demand for physical gold in other markets except Thailand increased sharply. The demand for gold bars and gold coins in the third quarter was 222.1 tons, up 49% year-on-year. The gold ETF, which is also an investment demand, increased significantly in the third quarter due to the late price correction The growth rate slowed down to 272.5 tons in the quarter. It was not until November in the fourth quarter that the global total position declined for the first time in the year. The position decreased by 107 tons, and the increment of gold ETF decreased to 916 tons from 1022 tons in the previous October, still setting an annual inflow record. The previous highest annual inflow was 646 tons in 2009.

In the third quarter, physical consumer demand remained weak, with gold jewelry demand of 333 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29%; science and technology gold demand of 76.7 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; affected by the reduction of 45.5 tons of gold held by the Turkish central bank in September, the global central bank’s gold demand showed a small net sale of 12.1 tons in the third quarter of 2020, which was the first net sale since the fourth quarter of 2010.

In the first three quarters, the total global gold demand was 2968.2 tons, of which investment demand accounted for 62% and consumption demand 38%. The increment of gold ETF surpasses the consumption demand of gold ornaments and ranks first in the demand list. (see the figure below for demand data and proportion in the first three quarters of 2020)

It can be seen that in 2020, the factors of supply and demand of gold physical consumption with commodity attributes have extremely weak influence on the trend of gold price, and the factors of investment demand with monetary / financial attributes based on anti inflation and risk aversion completely dominate the trend of gold price.

The underlying logic of gold price rising under the guidance of financial attributes in 2020

Global money supply easing is expected to be strengthened in 2020. The development of the novel coronavirus pneumonia has been shrinking global economic activities. To slow down the economic downturn and curb the recession, the supply of money in the world’s major economies is relatively abundant, and the liquidity is released on a large scale to prevent liquidity crisis and financial crisis. Monetary supply is looser than expected, monetary demand is stronger than expected. As an investment product to hedge inflation, gold is easily favored by capital.

The downward trend of interest rates of central banks is expected to be confirmed in 2020, especially the US dollar interest rate. In 2020, the real interest rate of US dollar will turn negative due to inflation and the decline of nominal interest rate. Under the influence of the continuous expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the relative flooding of US dollar liquidity, the US dollar devalued and weakened.

In a general logical sense, the depreciation of the US dollar means that when the product gold is priced in US dollars, more gold can be purchased when it is purchased in other currencies, which stimulates the supply and demand of international gold and increases the demand for gold, thus pushing the price up. The depreciation of the US dollar indicates that the market’s confidence in the US dollar is weakened, and the holding of the US dollar is reduced, and the holding of gold is increased, which leads to the rise of the price of gold.

As an interest free hedging investment product, gold has a prominent investment value when the interest rate goes down, especially when the real interest rate is negative.

Based on the above factors, the market expectations are highly consistent, the market leverage trading superimposes speculation, and the investment demand for Gold surges.

Some reasons for the operation of gold price in 2021

Logic layer:

The global economy is expected to be better in 2021. The OECD predicted in November that the global economy will grow by 4.2% in 2021 and shrink by 4.2% in 2020. The last time the OECD released its quarterly forecast was in September, when it expected the economy to grow by 5% in 2021. (the comparison of the two forecasts for major economies is shown in the figure below)

Inflation expectations in 2021 may decline over time. As the only country with positive annual GDP growth in major economies in 2020, China’s monetary policy is gradually returning to normalization. The monetary policy committee of the people’s Bank of China pointed out at its regular meeting in the fourth quarter of 2020 (the 91st session in total), that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of monetary policy, grasp the time effect of the policy, and maintain the necessary support for economic recovery. We should comprehensively use and innovate a variety of monetary policy tools, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matched with the economic growth rate, and keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable. Domestic CPI data shows that China’s inflation pressure is not big at present, and it is expected that the later monetary policy will focus on “drip irrigation”.

The depreciation of the US dollar has a bottom, and the US Federal Reserve has a large operating space in terms of interest rates. Recently, the United States launched the second round of fiscal stimulus plan (bail-out plan), which emphasized the purchase and distribution of new crown vaccines. The success of vaccine R & D and promotion will effectively alleviate the continuous downward trend of the economy. In 2021, the financial stimulus of the United States will gradually decline.

Capital level:

When the epidemic subsides and the economy recovers, risk aversion will gradually subside, capital risk preference will rise, and the scale of holding gold will decline with the investment enthusiasm of other competitive products. At present, the price of gold is at a relatively high level in history, and the risk of being bullish continues to accumulate over time. Therefore, ye Jianjun, an analyst of business news agency, believes that in 2021, the trend of gold price is generally in a “^” type, with narrow upward space. The operating range is 350-430 yuan / g, and the operating range of international gold price is 1660-2050 US dollars

Price list of aluminum ingots

According to the data of business news agency, on December 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 15786.67 yuan / ton, down 7.12% from the average price of 16996.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), up 8.47% from the average price of 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and up 40.49% from the valley price of 11230 yuan / ton at the end of the year (March 24).

Summary of Fundamentals:

1. Aluminum ingot destocking remained significant in December

According to statistics, as of December 24, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory totaled 58.6 tons, 3000 tons less than last week, 29000 tons less than 615000 tons on November 19, 719000 tons less than October 16, and 133000 tons less than last week.

2. The import volume of aluminum ingots increased

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China imported 188973 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November, down 26.4% from October and up 158.6% from the same period last year.

In addition, it is estimated that more than 100000 tons of electrolytic aluminum will be imported in December, the import volume in January may also exceed 80000 tons, and the overseas import contract volume in December may flow into China from January to February.

According to the exact data we have learned, 2.44 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products will be imported in November 2020, a fourfold increase over the same period of last year. China’s annual aluminum import in 2020 has reached a record high.

3. Policy news

On December 21, 2020, the European Commission announced that it would conduct an anti circumvention investigation on aluminum foil in rolls originating in China. In the filing notice, the European Commission pointed out that the Commission has sufficient evidence to prove that the re export of the products originated in China through Thailand (whether or not it is indicated that they originated in Thailand) has evaded the current anti-dumping measures against China’s rolled aluminum foil. The EU CN codes of the products involved are ex7607 11 11 and ex 7607 19 10 (Taric codes are 7607111111 and 7607191011).

Basic outlook

At present, the domestic aluminum ingot consumption is good, the social inventory continues to move down, and the supply and demand factors support the strong operation of aluminum price. With the upside down of the internal and external market, the import aluminum ingot volume increases, flattening the increase to a certain extent. Near the end of the year, the foreign investment gold plate in the industry gradually withdraws, and the downstream consumption is expected to weaken on the eve of the Spring Festival The profit is roughly estimated to be 3000-5000 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation can be operated in a large space. The future market operation is mainly cautious. However, the situation of low inventory will be strongly supported at the bottom of the price, and there is a large probability of cross trading in the near future.