1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable in the first half of this month, then dropped sharply after rising in the second half of this month, and rose slightly at the end of this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7223 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, it was 7068 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.14%; on January 19 and 20, the monthly high price was 7495 yuan / ton, and on January 28, the monthly low price was 6973 yuan / ton, with a monthly amplitude of 6.97%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price fell all the way at the end of December. It began to rise on New Year’s day, and rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and generally showed a ladder like rise. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton. On the 21st, it began to decline continuously, and on the 28th, it has fallen by 500-550 yuan / ton. On the 29th, it was stable. On the 30th and 31st, the price rose. Now, the market transaction is between 7000-7350 yuan / ton The mainstream price is about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is too high, and the shipment situation is cold.

On January 28, crude oil prices fell slightly, with limited impact on propylene.

PP fluctuated steadily in the first ten days of this month, then rose rapidly after falling in the middle ten days, and continued to stabilize in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 2.45% and a monthly amplitude of 3.94%. The futures market was also slightly cold, with limited impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid prices stabilized after the downward trend this month, with a monthly decline of 3.73% and a monthly amplitude of 4.41%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

This month, the market of propylene oxide rose slightly and then fell steadily, with a monthly decline of 9.35% and a monthly amplitude of 11.38%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market showed a ladder like decline this month, with a monthly decline of 12.80%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

This month, the domestic n-butanol price dropped sharply in the first half of the month, and then fluctuated and stabilized in the second half of the month, with a monthly decline of 10.07% and a monthly amplitude of 20.50%. As there was a steady correction in the second half of the month, it had a slight negative impact on the propylene market.

The trend of octanol in this month is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also a rapid correction after the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, it fluctuates and stabilizes, with a monthly decline of 12.68% and a monthly amplitude of 22.82%, which has a negative impact on propylene.

In the first half of this month, isopropanol went down and then fluctuated and became stable. In the second half of this month, isopropanol showed a rapid upward trend, with a monthly rise of 7.85% and a monthly amplitude of 27.31%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China fluctuated and stabilized after the downward adjustment at the beginning of this month, and rose significantly at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.91% and a monthly amplitude of 9.60%, which had a little positive effect on propylene.

The acetone market in East China fell at the beginning of this month and then showed a ladder like upward trend, with a monthly increase of 21.54% and a higher monthly amplitude of 42.34%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: Overall, there is a certain pressure on the current inventory, crude oil prices slightly down, downstream polypropylene futures market is a little cold, trading is not high, downstream market mainly wait-and-see, the market is slightly better than bad, so it is expected that the future market or in situ shock of propylene in the near future, not excluding the possibility of a small increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber was strong this week (1.29-2.5). As of February 5, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 6590 yuan / ton, up 3.67% from last Friday’s price of 6357, and down 7.5% year on year. The quotation of most manufacturers has been increased by 200-400 yuan / ton. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2105) closed higher on February 5, closing at 6776, 158 or 2.39% higher than last Friday’s closing at 6618. This week, international oil prices rose for five consecutive days, which led to a significant rise in PTA and glycol prices. With the increase of the cost, the number of shutdown and maintenance of the plant increased, the downstream goods were prepared, and the polyester staple fiber spot and futures showed a significant increase. However, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the actual market transactions decreased, and polyester staple fiber may be stable and strong before the festival.

2、 Factors affecting price

1. PTA: the domestic PTA spot market trend is stronger this week. At the end of this week, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 3995 yuan / ton, up 3.59% from the beginning of this week, and down 14.31% from the same period last year. International oil prices rose for five consecutive days this week. The cost rises sharply, PTA price is firm. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal loom factories are gradually on holiday, and the start-up is declining. They have a more wait-and-see attitude towards raw materials, and the market transactions are decreasing.

2. Ethylene glycol: the domestic ethylene glycol spot market rose this week. At the end of this week, the average ex factory price of oil based ethylene glycol in North China was 4816 yuan / ton, up 5.09% from last Friday, almost flat on a year-on-year basis. Port inventory continued to decline, international oil prices continued to rise, glycol prices rose sharply. Affected by the policy of celebrating Chinese New Year in situ, the operation rate of ethylene glycol plant increased, and the operation rate of downstream polyester was also higher than that of previous years. However, the operating rate of terminal looms has declined obviously. It is expected that the polyester market will be under pressure after the Spring Festival, and the market of ethylene glycol may be affected.

3. Polyester yarn: the domestic polyester yarn market is running smoothly this week. This weekend, the spot market average price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 14167 yuan / ton, the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.35%. Recent pure polyester market quotation is stable, Spring Festival holiday, transaction decline. Downstream weaving factories and textile raw material traders have basically finished preparing goods before the Spring Festival, with more downtime and holidays, and the market is gradually cold.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that since the new year of 2021, crude oil, PTA continued to rise, the cost of polyester staple fiber support is obvious. With the end of downstream goods preparation, the polyester market gradually entered the vacation stage, the lack of actual transactions in the market, the market before the festival or stable trend, the industry is more optimistic about the supply and demand side of the market after the festival. Before the Spring Festival, affected by the increase of risk aversion in the market, the price rise of polyester staple fiber may be limited. However, at present, the crude oil market is still strong, the recovery of demand in the peak season after the Spring Festival is still possible, and the short-term polyester staple fiber may continue to show a strong oscillation trend.

With the digestion of the negative factors of liquidity tightening, the fundamentals of the superimposed rubber market are still optimistic. This week, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2105 contract bottomed out and rebounded, with the futures price dropping to 14325 yuan / ton. At present, it is still operating in the range of 14000-14500 yuan / ton.

From the macro point of view, short-term macro atmosphere is empty and the expectation is changeable, which is still the biggest hidden danger hindering the upward trend of rubber price. The popularity of vaccination and the development of global COVID-19 will affect the short-term market sentiment, while the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of China will set the trend for the middle price of rubber prices. At present, there is still some uncertainty in the global epidemic situation, and the macro short atmosphere of rubber makes it difficult for rubber prices to start a sharp rise.

From the point of view of the supply side, the current domestic main production areas have entered a state of cutting stoppage. However, in Southeast Asia, the weather forecast of cooling occurred in Thailand, and thunderstorms occurred in most areas of Southern production area, which hindered the output of raw materials. According to the preliminary assessment, the flood will last until March 2021, which will have a great impact on the rubber plantations in southern Thailand. The per unit area yield of rubber trees will continue to decline from December 2020 to March 2021. In addition, affected by the rainfall and flood in January, four southern provinces in Thailand, namely narativa, Yala, songka and beidanian, suffered from serious rubber tree defoliation. It is reported that defoliation has reduced rubber production by as much as 60%. It is estimated that the income loss of rubber farmers in southern Thailand is about 4.075 billion baht, and the rubber production will decrease by about 80000 tons. If the problem of deciduous leaf disease becomes more and more serious in Tainan production area in the later stage, it may hinder a new round of tapping operation in the future, and the rubber price will be more strongly boosted.

From the perspective of demand side, in January 2021, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell more than 180000 vehicles of various types, with a significant year-on-year growth of 54%. The monthly figure of 180000 vehicles has a different meaning. It means that at the beginning of 2021, the sales volume of the heavy truck market in January broke the historical record, creating a new high in January – about 63000 more than the previous historical record of January 2020 (116600 vehicles)! At the same time, it also means that the heavy truck market has set a new record for the tenth consecutive month – from April last year to January this year, the monthly sales volume of the heavy truck market has set a new monthly sales record, reaching a new high.

In the downstream tire industry, affected by the return of employees from other places and the rise of finished product inventory, the start-up of domestic tire enterprises has declined month on month since January. It is understood that the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, tire factories around Shandong Province have been working out plans to stop work and resume work during the Spring Festival. Among them, most tire enterprises in Dongying and Weifang of Shandong province plan to stop work and have a holiday around February 4 and return to work around February 19, which is consistent with the pace of stopping and starting work in previous years. Therefore, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream tire factories will continue to decline. According to the monitoring data, by the week of January 29, 2021, the starting load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 67.51%, down 1.42 percentage points from last week. The starting load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 64.47%, 2.14 percentage points lower than that of last week. At present, the average inventory turnover days of semi steel tire enterprises are 37.61 days, while the average inventory turnover days of all steel tire enterprises are 41.75 days, which is lower than that of the same period in previous years.

At present, there are signs of the expected turn of domestic monetary policy after the festival, and there are potential risks, which are worthy of investors’ attention. In terms of Shanghai rubber market fundamentals, the supply side production reduction is still expected, and the downstream demand continues to be optimistic. It is expected that the game between macro and fundamentals will still appear in the later stage. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures are expected to maintain the oscillatory consolidation in the range of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, and the standard rubber 2103 is expected to maintain the oscillatory consolidation in the range of 10500-11000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 29, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2118 yuan / ton, and on January 1, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2116.67 yuan / ton, up 0.6% in the month and 0.06% year on year

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 29, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2490 yuan / ton, and on January 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.05% in the month and a year-on-year increase of 13.18%

2、 Market analysis

In January, the price of map increased by 0.6% within the month, with little increase. In the first half of the month, the price was relatively stable. With the arrival of the inflection point in the second half of the year, some enterprises suspended their quotation and received orders in limited quantity. In addition, the enthusiasm for downstream compound fertilizer preparation increased, the price of raw materials increased, and the price of monoammonium phosphate increased. At present, the price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2105 yuan / ton. In Hubei Province, the ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Henan Province is about 2050-2100 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.

In January, the price of DAP increased by 2.05%. The trend of DAP was strong mainly due to the tight supply of goods in the yard, the rising raw materials, and the stable demand for winter storage. At present, the mainstream price of 64% diammonium in Hubei Province is 2600-2650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of 64% diammonium in Gansu Province is 2650 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2900-2980 yuan / ton. In Guizhou Province, the mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium is 2850 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang Province, the first station advance collection quotation of 64% diammonium rises to 2950-3050 yuan / ton.

The market of raw material phosphate rock rose in January, and the transaction price of phosphate rock in the plant moved towards the high end. The price increase was mainly in Guizhou and Guangxi, with an increase rate of 10-20 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the overall adjustment of phosphate rock market was limited, and the operation was mainly stable. With the coming of the festival, some terminal downstream enterprises in the domestic phosphorus ore market have stopped production one after another, and due to transportation restrictions, the enterprise trading atmosphere maintains the current situation. Most of the mines concentrate on the supply of early orders. The phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the overall stable operation of the domestic phosphorus ore market is the main factor in the short term.

In January, the price of phosphorus chemical products rose generally. According to the price monitoring of business society, there were 5 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities falling in January 2021. The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (2.88%), diammonium phosphate (2.05%) and phosphate rock (1.68%), with an average rise and fall of 1.6% this month.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business news agency, the price of ammonium phosphate rose steadily in January, mainly due to the rising price of raw materials, the increasing support of cost, the tight supply of goods in the market, and the stable demand. In February, the atmosphere of price adjustment is still strong. The number of enterprises that stop reporting monoammonium phosphate increases, and the price rises again. The enterprise owners send orders, and the pressure of shipment is not big, so they are willing to support the market. DAP supply is not much, superimposed export demand is good, manufacturers have strong confidence in price support, and the industry is optimistic about the later market. To sum up, it is expected that the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate will remain warm in the short term, and the price is expected to rise.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, as of February 2, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 7033.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last Tuesday (January 26), decreased by 3.21% compared with January 2, and increased by 19.89% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The recent melamine market is mainly stable, and the market atmosphere is light. In terms of equipment, the operating rate of melamine will gradually increase, and the supply will increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream terminals will have holidays one after another. In addition, due to the influence of logistics and transportation factors, enterprises generally take goods, and some manufacturers mainly export. At present, the mainstream price of melamine in Shandong is around 7000 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of melamine in Xinjiang is around 6300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of melamine in Sichuan is around 6800 yuan / ton. The quotation is for reference only, and the actual price shall prevail.

Upstream urea, February 2, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. The downstream demand is tightening as a whole. In agriculture, the price of urea is relatively high and the agricultural procurement is cautious. In industry, due to the impact of air pollution control in some areas, plate enterprises shut down, and compound fertilizer enterprises started with general load, so the demand for proper follow-up. On the supply side, the early maintenance units started in succession, and the output increased steadily.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on February 1, 2021, there were 20 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including one commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were pure benzene (5.03%), butanone (3.64%) and ammonium chloride (3.24%). There were 9 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were dichloromethane (- 12.01%), ethylene oxide (- 9.33%) and trichloromethane (- 4.00%). Today’s average rise or fall was – 0%.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the recent price rise of upstream urea and cost support are rising, but the downstream demand follow-up consumption is insufficient, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the melamine market may be weak and stable in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market news guidance.

On February 1, the price of silver soared, and the price of American Silver broke through $30 / oz, breaking through the high level in early 2020; Ag (T + D) jumped at the opening price of 5573 yuan / g, and closed at 5476 yuan / g at night. After the weekend trading was suspended, the daily price rose violently on February 1, with the highest price of 5896 yuan / g, and the closing price of 5892 yuan / g, closing up 10.34%; silver 2106, the main futures contract of silver, jumped at the opening price of 5654 yuan / g, The night trading closed at 5564 yuan / g. after the weekend trading was suspended, the day trading rose violently on February 1, with the highest price of 5949 yuan / g. the closing price was 5939 yuan / g, up 9.27%.

There is still room for domestic silver spot price to reach its high level in 2020

According to the data of business news agency, on February 1, 2021, the morning average price of silver market was 5716.33 yuan / kg, which was 10.40% higher than the morning average price of 5177.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (January 28), and 14.76% lower than the peak price of silver spot market in 2020 (8.11), which was 6708.33 yuan / kg.

Shanghai Gold Exchange centralized pricing Shanghai silver morning and afternoon price trend is as follows:

Silver is more speculative

On the 28th, silver began to rise, and gold price was relatively sluggish. Market rumors suggest that recently, US retail investors began to turn their money to silver. Although there is no factual basis, it can be seen from the figure below that the fluctuation range of silver price is much higher than that of gold, the twin brother of its trend. Fortunately, this trend shows incisively and vividly in the middle of March and the first ten days of August 2020, and the speculative property of silver, which has gone up and down sharply, is stronger.

The data of Shanghai Gold Exchange also reflects that the high amplitude of silver’s sharp rise and fall in 2020 will attract more investors (Speculators).

According to the data of Shanghai gold exchange, in 2020, the turnover of silver was 20.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 186.19%, and the turnover was 4.2147 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 136.78%; the turnover of gold was 22.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.91%, and the turnover was 58700 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.44%.

Silver in the outer wall breaks through the peak in 2020

Within a day, slnc broke through US $30 / oz, reaching the highest of US $30.35/oz, breaking through the high price in early 2020.

It is reported that retail investors in reddit forum Wall Street bets called for “launching the biggest silver strike in history”.

The huge profits and international popularity gained by “American retail investors” in the stock market have greatly increased the attention of speculative funds to silver products. In addition, unlike gold, the precious metal, which has been at a historical high for nearly 10 years, the price of silver reached a high of US $49.50/oz in April 2011, creating a powerful price range chip for “American retail investors”.

If the price of internal market keeps rising, there is still room

In August 2020, the price of domestic silver rose more sharply. At present, the price is mainly driven by the external market, with a slight lag, and the increase is relatively weak. If the price of silver in the internal market keeps rising, the rising space is more considerable. Of course, the current rise is still within the fundamentals. If, like the stock market operated by retail investors in the United States, it is divorced from the actual supply and demand, and completely enters the stage of Bo Sha, it is unknown that it will crash and jump short quickly. On the news side, the price of silver soared on the first day. The Thai Futures Exchange (tfex) announced the suspension of trading of silver online futures, while India reduced the tariff on gold and silver to 7.5%. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at business news agency, predicts that the domestic silver price will follow the external market in the near future, and the range will be slightly lower than the external market.

Precious metals data at a glance

In January, the price trend of precious metals was weak as a whole, silver stabilized at the end of the month, and the upward attack was obvious, with great uncertainty in the future. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve’s policy is within expectations, the dollar index is relatively high, and precious metals are slightly under pressure; on the other hand, retail investors are fanatical trading expectations, and the market has entered a period of hoodwinking.

Summary of recent data:

In 2020, the annual global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) was 3759.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, which was lower than 4000 tons for the first time since 2009. In 2020, the inflow of gold ETF reached a record high, totaling 877.1 tons (about US $47.9 billion), and the global asset management scale reached 3, In 2020, the total demand for gold bars and gold coins will be 896.1 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; in 2020, the total global demand for gold ornaments will be 1411.6 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34%; in 2020, the total demand of central banks will be 273 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 59%; in 2020, the total demand for science and technology will be 301.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%; in 2020, the total global supply of gold will be 4633 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%; in 2020, the total amount of gold recovery will be 1, 297.4 tons, a slight increase of 1% year on year.

According to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, in 2020, the domestic raw material gold output was 365.34 tons, 14.88 tons less than the same period in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 3.91%. Among them, 301.69 tons of gold mineral gold and 63.65 tons of non-ferrous by-product gold were completed.

In 2020, the actual consumption of gold in China will be 820.98 tons, down 18.13% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them: 490.58 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year decrease of 27.45%; 246.59 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 9.21%; 83.81 tons of industrial and other gold, a year-on-year decrease of 16.81%.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the market price of maleic anhydride in China fell this week. As of January 29, the average price of maleic anhydride by hydrogenation of benzene remained around 8333.33 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from the beginning of the week and up 2.88% from the same period last month.

On January 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 78.50, down 1.57 points from yesterday, down 36.52% from the highest point of 123.67 points in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 53.38% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic phthalic maleic anhydride market started low load operation. Under the influence of environmental protection and Spring Festival factors, the downstream unsaturated resin entered the shutdown period, the operating rate went down, the resin market was weak and wait-and-see, and just needed procurement was the main factor. As of the 29th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 7800 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 8200 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 7700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 7900 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 8200 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, according to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene declined slightly this week. On the 25th, the average price of pure benzene was 4484 yuan / ton; on the 29th, the average price of pure benzene was 4456 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan / ton or 0.62% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong remained stable, at 4075 yuan / ton. N-butane prices stopped falling and recovered.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that at present, the maleic anhydride market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the downstream just need to purchase, the terminal demand is low, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and affected by the epidemic, the logistics is limited, and the price is expected to be sorted out in a short time.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of cobalt rose sharply in January 2020, and the market of cobalt recovered to rise in the new year. As of January 30, the cobalt price was 324666.66 yuan / ton, up 19.07% from 272666.66 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (January 1); the new year’s Cobalt market ushered in a sharp rise, the biggest increase since March 2017.

Trend of cobalt price in LME Market

It can be seen from the LME cobalt price trend chart that the LME cobalt price rose sharply in January. After a year’s fluctuation adjustment of cobalt price in 2020, the global cobalt market recovers in the new year, and the international cobalt price re welcomes the surge. The rise of international cobalt price is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market has increased momentum.

Domestic mobile phone production and sales data

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, in December 2020, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 26.595 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%; from January to December, the total shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 308 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. In December 2020, the domestic market 5g mobile phone shipment was 18.2 million, accounting for 68.4% of the mobile phone shipment in the same period. According to data released by IDC, mobile phone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached 385.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16 million units. In December, the sales of mobile phones declined, but the year-on-year decline was reduced. The decline of mobile phone market shipment slowed down, and the mobile phone market showed an upward trend. The rising global mobile phone shipment in the fourth quarter eased the tension in the mobile phone market. 5g mobile phones are gradually gaining strength, and the mobile phone market may usher in a wave of replacement. 5g mobile phones will become a new growth point in the market. However, the sales of mobile phones in the whole 20 years still have a large decline compared with that in the 19 years, and the mobile phone market will be in a better shape The market has limited support for the cobalt market. With the outbreak of 5g mobile phones, the mobile phone market is expected to rise in 2021, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise sharply, which is more favorable for the cobalt market.

Domestic new energy vehicle market

According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 235000 and 248000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 55.7% and 49.5% respectively. In 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% and 10.9% respectively. The annual market is better than expected. The rise of new energy automobile industry in the weak environment of automobile industry reflects the prospect of new energy automobile industry, and also indicates that new energy automobile has entered an outbreak period. New energy automobile is expected to enter a surge period in the 21st year. China Automobile Association predicts that the sales volume of new energy automobile will increase by 40% in 2021. The explosion of new energy vehicle industry and the surge of demand in cobalt market are favorable to the cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt price is increased.

Global new energy vehicle market

According to EV volumz, a global electric vehicle research company, in December 2020, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 590000, an increase of 40% on a month on month basis. In 2020, the global sales of electric vehicles will be 3.24 million, up 43% year on year. The global sales of new energy vehicles soared, which was good for the global cobalt market, with sufficient support for the rise of cobalt price.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that since the new year, the cobalt market seems to be getting “stimulant”, the cobalt price has soared, and the cobalt market is booming again. But can the cobalt market last long, and what’s the space for the cobalt price to rise in the future? It still deserves our attention. From the demand side, there are signs of recovery in the mobile phone market, which is good for the cobalt market, but the overall production and sales of the mobile phone market are still slightly insufficient, with Limited good for the cobalt market, and insufficient power for the cobalt price to rise in the future; with the soaring demand for new energy vehicles, there is sufficient power for the cobalt market to rise, but the continuous growth of the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the second half of 2020 does not bring a corresponding rise to the cobalt price It remains to be seen whether the price rise is a retaliatory rise or a surge in demand. The recovery of the global cobalt market also plays a stimulating role in the domestic cobalt market, which is generally good, but it still needs time to test the global cobalt Market’s recovery of 19 years. On the whole, there is sufficient momentum for the rise of cobalt market, and there is still room for the rise of cobalt price in the future, but the demand of cobalt market is still difficult to support the continuous rise of cobalt price. It is expected that the rise of cobalt price in the future will slow down, and the cobalt price will rise slowly in February.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, affected by the shortage of acetic acid, the market of acetic anhydride rose sharply in January, and the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply. As of January 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 8133.33 yuan / ton, up 9.91% from 7400.00 yuan / ton in early January. The price of acetic anhydride rose for four consecutive months.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose sharply in January, and the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride rose. Because the acetic acid enterprises stop to reduce the load more, the operating rate of acetic acid is low, the supply of acetic acid is insufficient, the shortage of acetic acid is increasing, the rising power of acetic acid is increasing, the cost of acetic anhydride is rising, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is increasing.

Methanol price trend

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart that the methanol price fluctuated and adjusted in January, the overall methanol price fell slightly, the methanol price of acetic anhydride raw material was stable, the acetic anhydride cost was stable, and the power of acetic anhydride rising was limited.

Monthly rise and fall of acetic anhydride price

From the monthly K-bar chart of acetic anhydride price, it can be seen that the price of acetic anhydride has increased for four consecutive months since October 2020. Affected by the decline of equipment start-up of acetic anhydride enterprises and the rise of raw material costs, the price of acetic anhydride has been rising continuously since October 2020, and the price of acetic anhydride remains high.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an acetic anhydride data analyst at business news agency, believes that the sharp rise in acetic acid prices has driven the rise in acetic anhydride prices. However, with the stable equipment start-up of acetic acid enterprises, the shortage of acetic acid has been alleviated. With the loss of support, the price of acetic acid is expected to stabilize or fall in the future, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride is declining, and the price of acetic anhydride is out of support. Moreover, with the coming of the new year, the number of acetic anhydride downstream enterprises is increasing, the downstream customers are more resistant to high price acetic anhydride, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rising is weakened. Generally speaking, the cost support of acetic anhydride in the future is insufficient, the demand support is declining, the price of acetic anhydride is weak and stable before the year, and acetic anhydride may face retaliatory growth after the year.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, the plasticizer DOP market recovered this week, and the price of DOP rose slightly. As of January 30, the DOP price was 9550.00 yuan / ton, up 1.60% from 9400.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week, the transaction of isooctanol was good, the price was firm, the overall market of isooctanol was firm, the cost of DOP raw materials fluctuated and rose, the rising power of DOP increased, and the downward pressure weakened.

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride that the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, the market of phthalic anhydride recovered, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP rose, the downward pressure of DOP weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that this week, PVC prices rose, PVC market recovered, DOP demand rose, DOP downstream market recovered, plasticizer DOP market increased.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that this week, DOP raw material ISO octanol and phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated, DOP raw material costs rose, DOP price rising momentum increased; downstream PVC market recovered, DOP demand increased, DOP rising momentum increased. DOP enterprises started at a low level, and the operating rate was maintained at about 60%. Generally speaking, the DOP cost rises, the DOP rising power increases, the downstream market rises, and the DOP market warms up. DOP prices are expected to rise in the future. With the increase of DOP enterprises, DOP prices tend to stabilize.