1、 Price trend:

According to the price chart of business news agency, as of June 24, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile remained at 14930.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of the previous working day. Compared with last Friday, the price decreased by 0.33%, and compared with May 24, the price increased by 4.26%

2、 Market analysis

After entering June, the transaction price of acrylonitrile market increased gradually. On June 10, the price stabilized at 15040.00 yuan / ton, and began to shake in a small range. On June 24, the price remained at 14930.00 yuan / ton. This month, the market is still stable, the factory quotation is relatively strong, the ex factory price of Jiangsu silbang is stable, the price of Jilin Petrochemical is rising, and the dealer quotation is relatively stable.

upper reaches:

According to the price chart of the business club, after the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong propylene market was put into operation, and the market turnover rose to 7600 ~ 7900 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price around 7900 yuan / ton. Mainstream manufacturers offer unchanged, low-end prices increased. Propylene market is expected to rise in the near future.

Downstream:

Since June, the NBR market has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the overall trend of NBR is rising first and then falling in a small wave. Business analysts believe that the relative pressure on the supply side is not big, and the price has dropped sharply in the early stage, so it is expected that the NBR market will be stable in the later stage.

According to the data of business club’s block list, the spot price of ABS was weak and volatile in early June, and the spot price was generally reduced. The trend of raw materials is mixed, and the support of ABS cost side is general. At present, it is the off-season of ABS industry, the demand of end-users is shrinking, and the shipping resistance of enterprises and businesses is increasing. ABS analysts of business cooperatives believe that the recent ABS spot market may continue to be short.

3、 Future forecast:

Acrylonitrile analysts of business news agency believe that: the current acrylonitrile market is stable, the driving force of upstream propylene cost is not strong, the downstream ABS is weak and volatile, the supply and demand fundamentals of NBR are acceptable, and the polyacrylamide market is stable. It is expected that the trend of acrylonitrile market will be stable in the later period. It is suggested to watch carefully and pay more attention to the factory settlement and downstream device dynamics.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of June 23, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 10866.67 yuan / ton, up 4.49% compared with June 16, up 6.54% compared with the beginning of the month, and up 0.31% compared with May 23.

Since the second half of June, the acrylic acid market has been running strongly, and the price was stable on the 23rd

Since June, the acrylic acid Market in the first half of the month has been stable first and then rose, with an increase of 1.31%. In the second half of the month, the acrylic acid market rose steadily. Some mainstream enterprises executed export orders. At present, the market supply is tight. In addition to the impact of the news of logistics restrictions in some regions, the downstream products were prepared in advance, the market inquiry and transaction were active, and the rising atmosphere was strong, and the market was strong.

Upstream propylene, June 23, Shandong propylene market prices stopped falling temporarily. According to the price chart of the business club, the domestic propylene market has been in a downward trend since June. Today, the low-end price has increased by about 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market turnover is around 7600-7800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7800 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is stable, the downstream purchases on demand, the downstream performance is general, and the support for propylene is limited.

Acrylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the cost support is general, the supply side is tight, and the market inquiry and transaction are positive. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stronger in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

DOP price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, this week, the old cost of DOP fell, and the price of DOP fell sharply. As of June 21, the DOP price was 12800.00 yuan / ton, down 4.71% from 13433.33 yuan / ton on June 1 last week. DOP prices fell sharply this week.

Raw material prices fall

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that octanol price hit the top and fell this week, DOP cost fell, DOP price fell, DOP price rose powerlessly and downward pressure increased.

PVC market falls in off season

According to the monitoring data from the business community, the PVC market continued to weaken in June, with more centralized maintenance of PVC enterprises. The decline of PVC production and the indifferent demand for PVC contributed to the tepid pvc6 in June, the tepid demand for DOP, the insufficient support for the rise of DOP, and the greater downward pressure on DOP in the future.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that this week, octanol prices fell, DOP costs fell and DOP prices fell; On the demand side, PVC enterprises have more centralized maintenance, DOP demand is cold, and DOP rising space is limited. Generally speaking, the cost of DOP is decreasing, the downstream demand is cold, and the downward pressure of DOP is increasing. It is expected that the price of DOP will drop sharply in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material at the beginning of this week was 10925 yuan / ton, while the average price of EPS ordinary material at the weekend was 10675 yuan / ton, down 2.29% and up 31.79% compared with the same period of this year.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, styrene is expected to be weak, pure benzene is difficult to have a clear direction for the time being, styrene supply is increasing, and the arrival of US dollar goods is increasing. On the supply side, it is difficult to restart the stopped EPS device next week, and it is expected that the output will not change much next week.

EPS factory delivered goods at a small margin, affected by the rebound of styrene, the overall turnover volume. As of June 17, Jiangsu’s common material was 10400 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton, or 1.89% on a month on month basis, and its fuel was 10900 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton, or 1.80% on a month on month basis.

3、 Future forecast

Domestic EPS market was weak, styrene fell to near the cost line, and the market negotiation was slightly deadlocked. The EPS market is expected to weaken slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

Aniline stopped falling and rose this week, with prices rising in a row, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On June 11, the price of Shandong Province was 8800-9100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9000 yuan / T / T, and on June 18, the price in Shandong is 9400-9580 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9600 yuan / T / T, with the average price up 5.58% compared with last week, 3.65% higher than the beginning of the month, 19.83% higher than the beginning of the year, up 108.82% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene rose this week and then fluctuated and consolidated, and Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was stable, with the price of 7750 yuan / ton. The domestic price of pure benzene has been rising continuously, boosted by the continuous increase of crude oil and low inventory of pure benzene port. The inventory of benzene in East China main port fell below 80000 tons in the week. But at present, most downstream products are in loss, followed up by the slowdown of pure benzene, limiting the increase. On Sunday (June 20), the price of pure benzene was 7603-7800 yuan / ton (average price: 7750 yuan / ton), and the average price rose 60 yuan / ton, or 0.78% compared with last week; It was 112.33 per cent higher than the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid continued to rise this week, with the production price of nitric acid in East China on Friday (June 18) at 2300 yuan / ton, up 1.47% from last week, up 58.62% from the same period last year.

Some devices in the site maintain load reduction operation. During the Dragon Boat Festival, Jinling aniline plant was put into parking and maintenance, and it is expected that the supply in the site will continue to decrease on about 10 days. With the support of the good, aniline prices continued to rise.

3、 Post market expectations

On the cost side, the international side, the recovery prospect of crude oil is better; The price of the external market is fluctuating. At home, the pre maintenance of pure benzene plant is restarted, supply or gradually rising, but the supply in the field is still in a tight situation in the short term. Downstream: some downstream products are losing money, and their enthusiasm for benzene follow-up is not high. In general, it is expected that the pure benzene will continue to vibrate next week, with the possibility of falling.

There are many load reduction operation or parking maintenance devices in the site, and the maintenance plan of Shanxi Tianji aniline plant is expected to continue to decrease. However, Wanhua chemical has plans to invest in MDI supporting aniline plant, and market demand for aniline is under pressure. In general, there is still upward space for aniline in the short term, but it is possible to decline under the constraints of downstream demand. Continue to focus on the trend of raw material surface, downstream demand follow-up and aniline plant dynamics.

According to the data monitored by the business society (the average price of SG5 by the calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on June 17 was 9087.5 yuan / ton, down 0.27% from the previous day, 0.41% lower than the beginning of the week, 1.76% on month, up 43.39% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

After the Dragon Boat Festival, PVC market continued to weaken, futures prices fell more than 2% on 17, driving the trend of spot prices. The enterprises cut about 50-100 yuan / ton in a day, and prices in different regions were lowered by different ranges. The quotation was mostly in the range of 9150-9250 yuan / ton, with the overall focus slightly moving down, but the price was still high. At present, the price of raw materials calcium carbide has risen by 12% in June, and the cost side support is stronger. Therefore, PVC is difficult to fall sharply. However, the downstream enters the off-season, the demand side is expected to weaken, and downstream industries are mostly in the wait-and-see form, and continue to maintain the purchase just needed, and the carrier can make profit and deliver goods, so there is a certain space for negotiation. In the short term, PVC market is more adhesive, the price is mainly narrow fluctuation, and the future market is difficult to be optimistic.

In spot, the main quotation range of pvc5 type electric stone is 9150-9250 yuan / ton. Hangzhou area pvc5 type electric stone interval 9140-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 type electric stone in Changzhou area is 9150-9200 yuan / ton; The main price of PVC common electrical stone in Guangzhou is 9200-9250 yuan / ton; The market has been down in all regions.

In futures, futures prices have fallen recently, and the prices of spot markets are down. June 17 v2109 contract opening price: 8705, the highest price: 8735, the lowest price: 8530, position: 378085, settlement price: 8635, yesterday settlement: 8770, down 135.

region technology June 17th June 11th Up and down remarks

East China Electrostone method 9030-9140 yuan / ton 9250-9280 yuan / ton – 220/140 Delivery

south China Electrostone method 9170-9250 yuan / ton 9200-9300 yuan / ton – 30/50 Delivery

North China Electrostone method 8980-9080 yuan / ton 9100-9200 yuan / ton – 120/120 To

southwest Electrostone method RMB 9000-9150 / T 9100-9250 yuan / ton – 100/100 To

International crude oil, June 16, international oil prices closed up slightly, the settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $72.15/barrel, or 0.03 USD. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price at $74.39/barrel, up $0.40 or 0.50%. The US gasoline inventory rose last week, limiting the power of oil prices, according to inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday.

Ethylene, June 16, European ethylene market market, FD northwest Europe quoted 1261-1274 USD / T, up $1 / T, CIF northwest Europe quotation 1210-1221 USD / T, down 2 USD / T. On June 16, the US ethylene market, FD US Bay quoted us $594-607 / T, up $16.5/t, and the recent U.S. ethylene market rose, with good demand. On June 16, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $897-905 / T, down $15 / T, CFR Southeast Asia quotation of $857-865 / T, down $15 / T. Recently, the price of ethylene in Asia is mainly stable. Ethylene market may be mainly higher in the late period of high crude oil price.

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable on June 17, with the reference price of calcium carbide at 4683.33, up 12.4% compared with that of June 1 (4166.67). The price of upstream orchid carbon rose slightly, cost support was better, and the downstream PVC market was in high position consolidation, and the demand for calcium carbide was higher. The electricity market in the back market rose slightly.

3、 Post market forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that PVC market continued to weaken after the festival, supported by cost side, PVC fell deeply. With the downstream entering the off-season, the demand side is expected to weaken, and PVC market is expected to run in a short period of time, and the price or the price will continue to decline.

On June 15, the closing price of 2109, the main asphalt contract, was 3298 yuan / ton, up 2.57% on the previous day. The upward trend of international crude oil has a certain cost support for the market, the market is slightly strong, the spot demand is slightly flat, and the domestic asphalt spot market is slow to follow up. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 15, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3356 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 3.81% and a year-on-year increase of 45.15%.

The rain weather in the south is still obvious, and the market demand is tepid. The implementation of consumption tax policy can stimulate futures market and promote spot buying.

As of June 15, the factory quotation summary of main asphalt manufacturers in Shandong Province:

Enterprise, device, price

HSBC petrochemical A set of 2.3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is expected to be overhauled until mid to late April 3300 yuan / ton

Jincheng petrochemical 1500 tons per day / Kelida There are two sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation, one set of 3.2 million tons / year atmospheric and vacuum distillation and one set of 1.2 million tons / year atmospheric and vacuum distillation 3300 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical A set of 3 million tons / year atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit intermittently produces asphalt, and the unit is converted to residual oil, with a daily output of 2500-3000 tons in normal production 3850 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical / 3210 yuan / ton

Good policy, but affected by the weather, demand is difficult to follow up, business community asphalt analysts expect domestic asphalt spot market consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS ordinary material was 11150 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10925 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a price drop of 2.02% and an increase of 33.44% compared with the same period of this year.

2、 Market analysis

The main port inventory of styrene in East China increased slightly, and the funds were short of the future market of styrene, and the decline of styrene was obvious. Styrene support weakened, the supply of some EPS brands was tight, the factory had no intention to yield profits substantially, the decline of EPS was less than that of styrene, wheat harvest, power rationing and other factors affected some downstream demand, and the overall transaction was poor within the week.

As of June 10, Jiangsu’s common material was 10600 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton, or 3.64% on a month-on-month basis, and its fuel was 11100 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton, or 3.48% on a month-on-month basis.

3、 Future forecast

On the demand side, with the end of power rationing in South China, peak load shifting in some parts of East China, and the impact of wheat harvest in North China, it is expected that the overall downstream construction may weaken, and the EPS market is expected to weaken slightly next week.

According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on June 11 was 18836.67 yuan / ton, up 3.10% from the recent low of 18270 yuan / ton on June 4; The average market price on May 10 was 20043.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.02%, compared with the high level in the cycle.

Taking the average market price of aluminum ingot at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 19.78%.

It is reported that in late May, affected by the news that the regulatory authorities recently interviewed key enterprises in the black and non-ferrous industries, the current policy is mainly to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and comprehensively curb the unreasonable rise of commodity prices. The voice of policy departments has raised the market’s expectation of the later policy regulation, and the commodity market sentiment shows signs of cooling down.) Domestic spot aluminum ingot prices began to decline, now began to stabilize, even slightly up last week.

Industry chain import and export data at a glance

Raw material end:

Imports of bauxite decreased in April

According to customs data, in April 2021, China imported 8.7395 million tons of bauxite, a year-on-year decrease of 12.16% and a month on month decrease of 13.45%. Guinea is the largest supplier. In April, China imported 4.7502 million tons of bauxite from Guinea, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85% and a month on month decrease of 17.14%. China’s imports to Australia in April were 2.9452 million tons, up 1.95% year on year and down 4.83% month on month. Indonesia’s import volume in April was 1.044 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 48.03% and a month on month decrease of 13.68%.

Downstream products:

In April 2021, the import volume of aluminum alloy not forged and rolled was 281139 tons, with a 36.10% month on month growth and a 165.07% year-on-year growth; From January to April, the imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 942800 tons, up 130.9% year on year.

China’s total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in April were 437200 tons, a decrease of 14.48% on a month on month basis and 8.82% on a year-on-year basis. From January to April this year, China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled 1.7269 million tons, up 5.8% year on year.

In the first four months, the price of domestic aluminum industry chain was high, there was arbitrage between internal and external prices, and the import quantity increased significantly year-on-year.

List of domestic aluminum industry chain output data

According to China’s National Bureau of statistics, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.35 million tons, up 12.4% year on year and 3.9% month on month. From January to April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 13.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%.

From January to April 2021, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 18.942 million tons, an increase of 19.60%.

Among them, in April, the operating rate of aluminum enterprises was 57.72%, which increased by 6.80 percentage points on a month on month basis, and decreased by 1.75 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020; The operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises was 78.23%, increased by 5.81 percentage points on a month on month basis, and increased by 2.63 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020; The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingot enterprises was 56.00%, increased by 5.66 percentage points on a month on month basis and 14.29 percentage points on a year-on-year basis. The operating rate of aluminum pole line enterprises was 51.6%, an increase of 8 percentage points on a month on month basis and a decrease of 8 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.

In the first four months, affected by price factors, the output of aluminum ingot industry chain showed an overall upward trend.

List of terminal consumption data

Real estate data

In April, the national real estate sales area was 143 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.2%; The sales amount was 1523.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.5%. From January to April, the national real estate sales area was 503 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.1%; The sales amount was 5360.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 68.2%; Compared with January to April in 2019, the accumulated sales area and sales amount increased by 19.5% and 37% respectively.

Auto industry data

In April 2021, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 8.7% and 13.5% year on year, and the automobile market continued to show a stable and good development trend.

Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in April were 216000 and 206000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.8 times respectively. From January to April, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 750000 and 732000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6 times and 2.5 times.

Domestic terminal consumption was relatively good in the first four months.

Future forecast

Supply side:

With China’s aluminum industry speeding up the implementation of the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s energy consumption “double control” policy, the domestic aluminum ingot price has been promoted to a certain extent. On the one hand, the dual control policy of energy consumption is becoming stricter, which affects the production schedule of new capacity to a certain extent; On the other hand, the price goes up and the capacity operating rate goes up.

Recently, in terms of domestic production capacity, the enterprises expected to resume production are Zhongrui in Gansu Province and Hengkang in Shaanxi county. On the whole, affected by the power restriction in Yunnan Province, it is estimated that the production capacity increment of electrolytic aluminum in the near future will be small.

Demand side:

The investment in real estate development shows a trend of high before and low after the year, and the overall annual data is expected to rise slightly; For the automobile consumer, it is expected that with the alleviation of chip shortage, there will be a large-scale growth in the second half of this year. Overall, the demand side is relatively good.

Business analysts believe that the current price of 18000-19000 yuan / ton is a stable fluctuation range formed by the market game. It is estimated that in the near future, the price of aluminum ingots will be mainly around 18500 yuan / ton

According to the data monitored by the business community (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on June 10, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 9100 yuan / ton, down 0.55% compared with 9150 yuan at the beginning of the month, up 43.59% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of June, the PVC market fluctuated at a high level and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. Recently, the price of PVC futures rebounded and rose, while the spot market didn’t show any significant follow-up behavior. Most of them adjusted in the range of 50-150 yuan / ton. Some of the lower quotations rose slightly, and the high-end prices also decreased. The overall market quotation was around 9100 yuan / ton, and the focus was still high. This week, the market is strong, PVC futures prices pull fast, the spot market continues to move big and small, wait-and-see mentality gradually strong. Near the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand for replenishment in the downstream has increased to a certain extent, the transaction atmosphere has slightly improved, and the demand support is acceptable; At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide rose, the support of cost side became stronger, and some PVC devices were still under repair, the supply was still good, which supported the strong trend of PVC. With the recovery of PVC maintenance enterprises in the future, and the downstream demand entering the off-season, the supply and demand side may be weak, and the short-term high shock trend will continue, so it is difficult to be optimistic in the future.

In terms of spot price, the main quotation range of pvc5 calcium carbide in China is around 9150-9400 yuan / ton. In Hangzhou area, the pvc5 calcium carbide interval is 9100-9200 yuan / ton; The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Changzhou is 9100-9230 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC in Guangzhou is 9200-9300 yuan / ton; Markets fluctuated in a narrow range.

In terms of futures, the price has risen sharply, but not for a long time, and the spot market has not risen significantly with the same frequency. June 10 v2109 contract opening price: 8795, the highest price: 8815, the lowest price: 8685, position: 389602, settlement price: 8755, yesterday’s settlement: 8630, up 125.

region varieties technology June 10 remarks

East China PVC Calcium carbide process 9160-9210 yuan / ton Delivery

south China PVC Calcium carbide process 9200-9300 yuan / ton Delivery

North China PVC Calcium carbide process 9050-9150 yuan / ton To

southwest PVC Calcium carbide process 9100-9250 yuan / ton To

For international crude oil, on June 9, the international oil price remained stable, and the settlement price did not change much compared with the previous trading day. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was 69.96 US dollars / barrel, down 0.09 US dollars or 0.1%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 72.22 U.S. dollars / barrel, flat in the last trading day. Previous data showed that the U.S. gasoline inventory increased significantly, limiting the pace of oil price rise. However, the market is looking forward to the start of the summer driving season in North America, and the oil price is still strong.

Ethylene, the recent external ethylene market as a whole showed a downward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia remained stable. As of the 9th, CFR closed at US $957-965 / T in Northeast Asia and US $917-925 / T in Southeast Asia. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at 1298-1309 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 1253-1262 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. As of the 9th, the price was 583-595 US dollars / ton. Recently, the external market of ethylene fell. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole external market of ethylene is poor, the trading atmosphere is light, the transaction is weak, and the focus of ethylene market is constantly moving down.

On June 10, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable. The reference price of calcium carbide was 4266.67, up 2.4% compared with June 1 (4166.67). The price of orchid charcoal in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support was weak, the PVC market in the downstream rose slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide increased. Calcium carbide rose slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that with the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, the demand for replenishment in the downstream has increased to a certain extent. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide has risen, and the favorable situation of maintenance has not completely subsided. In the short term, the trend of PVC is strong, and the price may rise slightly. However, with the supply and demand weakening step by step, the market is hard to be optimistic.