1、 Price trend
According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 30000 yuan / ton last Tuesday and 44000 yuan / ton this Tuesday. The price rose by 46.67% on the 7th.
2、 Market analysis
Recently, according to an online document, Yunnan development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing a good job in the work related to dual control of energy consumption, which mentioned that the production control of yellow phosphorus industry should be strengthened to ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. 90% reduction). Affected by this news, the downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. At present, the shortage of yellow phosphorus spot has intensified, and the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply again.
Up to now, most of Yunnan yellow phosphorus have suspended external quotation; The quotation in Sichuan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 43000 yuan / ton. Yunnan Enterprises Limited power and reduced consumption, Guizhou limited power and reduced production, yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issued early orders, the spot supply was tight, and some manufacturers temporarily stopped making external quotations.
In terms of raw materials, the market price of phosphorus ore is mainly high. The average price of phosphorus ore was 626.67 yuan / ton last Tuesday and 643.33 yuan / ton this Tuesday. The price rose by 2.66% on the 7th. The overall supply of phosphorus ore market is tight and the operating rate is low. The site continues to supply orders from old customers.
In terms of coke, in view of the current situation of coal coke steel market, since 0:00 on September 15, many coking enterprises in Shandong have started the eleventh round of raising 200 yuan / ton. After the rise, the ex factory price including tax shall be subject to a dry shutdown of 4540-4590 yuan / ton. Up to now, the quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4070 yuan / ton.
In terms of phosphoric acid, the market generally increased. The average price of phosphoric acid was 7816.67 yuan / ton last Tuesday and 9400 yuan / ton this Tuesday. The price rose by 20.26% during the week, and the downstream procurement is still cautious. At present, the price of raw materials is rising and supported by costs. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to rise in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the market price of yellow phosphorus rose this week, the voltage load of yellow phosphorus enterprises was limited, the production capacity was reduced, and the spot tension was intensified. The price of upstream phosphorus ore and coke increased, and the price of downstream phosphoric acid increased all the way. The downstream began to purchase yellow phosphorus at a high price. The acceptance of high price yellow phosphorus was high. On the whole, the market confidence was good and the upstream and downstream support was strong. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will continue to rise in the short term.