1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene rose broadly in the first half of this week and began to fall on Thursday. On September 12, the price of pure benzene was 7950-8400 yuan / ton (average price: 8080 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (September 19), the price of pure benzene was 8100-8600 yuan / ton (average price: 8360 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 280 yuan / ton, or 3.67%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 146.61%.
2、 Analysis and review
Affected by the epidemic and typhoon, the arrival of cargo was delayed, the port inventory decreased significantly, the spot supply in East China was tight, stimulated the active purchase in the downstream, and the market speculation was strong. In the second half of the week, affected by the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly; In addition, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream is relatively sufficient due to short supply in the early stage, and the resistance to high priced pure benzene in the downstream is strengthened and the follow-up is weakened. Market buying enthusiasm fell, pure benzene market fell, traders took profits and prices fell. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was raised three times and lowered once, and the adjusted price was 8300-8450 yuan / ton.
In terms of external price, the external price of pure benzene in Asia fluctuated and fell this week. On Friday (September 17), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $976 / T, down US $19 / T, or 1.91%, compared with September 10; The reference import price in East China was US $1035 / T, down US $10 / T or 0.96% month on month on September 10.
In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.
Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after a wide rise this week. On September 17, the price of sample enterprises was 9387.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.88% over last week and 72.78% over the same period last year. Driven by the forced short market of pure benzene on the cost side, the price of styrene continued to rise and the spot remained strong. Over the weekend, with the exchange and rescue of some domestic pure benzene, the pure benzene Market weakened, driving the correction of styrene price.
Aniline: Unplanned parking of Jiangsu Yangnong and Jiangsu Fuqiang under the “double control” policy; A 100000 t / a unit of Nanhua was shut down to replace the catalyst. At present, aniline in Jiangsu has lost 130000 T / a production capacity. The spot supply in East China was tight, and the inventory of aniline enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi decreased rapidly, driving the overall supply in the field to be tight. During the week, the price of aniline rose continuously and the price rose broadly.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the downstream has strong resistance to high priced pure benzene. Downstream main product styrene: raw material pure benzene is lack of follow-up driving force, and the fundamentals of styrene may weaken. In addition, the “double control” of regional governments is strengthened, and the downstream demand may further weaken. It is expected that styrene will maintain shock after a slight correction in the short term.
Crude oil storage may fall; Affected by the “double control” policy in the downstream, the downstream operating rate in East China decreased significantly, and the subsequent demand for pure benzene was weak. At the end of this month, Dalian Fujia and Dalian Hengli planned maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease, or offset the bad brought by the decline in demand. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will be consolidated at a high level after a slight decline. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.