1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline fell continuously this week. On September 3, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 10, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 10400-10600 yuan / ton, down 5.52% from last week, up 29.96% at the beginning of the year and 131.58% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, in the early stage, the arrival of some ships was delayed, the port inventory was low, and the shipment of local refining enterprises was ok, so the price of pure benzene fluctuated and rose. It was reported in the middle of the week that a large styrene plant downstream was planned to be overhauled in October. The supply of styrene was expected to tighten, and the price rose sharply, driving the rise of pure benzene. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene to 8000 yuan / ton. On Sunday (September 12), the price of pure benzene was 7950-8400 yuan / ton (the average price was 8080 yuan / ton), an increase of 380 yuan / ton or 4.94% over last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 136.95%.

The price of nitric acid fell this week. On Friday (September 10), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3000 yuan / ton, down 0.99% from last week and up 100% from the same period last year.

Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate of the downstream in the North decreased and the demand for aniline decreased; Most aniline units overhauled in the early stage were restarted, the operating rate increased, and the on-site supply increased. Under the pressure of bad supply and demand, aniline fell continuously during the week, but the rising atmosphere in the raw material market was warm and gave some bottom support. At present, aniline is still above the 10000 mark.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the speculation in the pure benzene market driven by styrene is relatively short, the crude oil guidance is weak, and there is no major change in the fundamentals in the short term. Overall, it is expected that the trend of pure benzene will stabilize next week, and there may be a slight decline.

The short-term rising power of the cost side remains, and the support for the bottom of aniline is good. It is expected that the trend of aniline will stabilize next week. Entering the “golden nine silver ten”, the downstream operating rate may pick up and the demand is expected to be better. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

In the second week of September, the overall domestic propane market still increased, and Shandong continued the rising route, with the overall focus moving upward. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5015.75 yuan / ton on September 5 and 5108.25 yuan / ton on September 9, with an increase of 1.84% during the week, an increase of 2.51% compared with September 1.

As of September 9, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications September 9th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4950-5050 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5050-5150 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5050-5220 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5080-5200 yuan / ton

In the second week of September, the domestic propane market continued to rise as a whole, and the propane Market in Shandong continued to rise within the week, but the range was general. In September, CP prices were introduced, and both propylene and butane increased, which brought some support to the market. The international crude oil market fell first and then rose during the week, bringing periodic benefits to the market. Individual manufacturers in Shandong temporarily parked, and the market supply decreased. In terms of demand, the weather has cooled down, and the terminal demand has increased to a certain extent. At present, most manufacturers’ inventory is at a low level and their mentality is relatively strong. Downstream buy up do not buy down mentality into the market actively, prices continue to rise. At present, the north and South markets are dominated by growth, and the growth of the north market is relatively conservative than that of the south market.

Saudi Aramco announced in September that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 665 USD / T, an increase of 5 USD / t over the previous month; Butane is 665 USD / T, an increase of 10 USD / T compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the current rebound of international crude oil has brought some support to the market. In September, the traditional peak season has entered, the terminal demand has improved, the downstream mentality is good, the market entry is positive, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm under the low inventory level, and the price has increased. At present, there are many positive factors in the market. It is expected that the propane market will still rise in the short term. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the changes of international crude oil.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the current price of domestic PTA continued to weaken significantly today (September 8). The average price of spot market was 4756 yuan / ton, a single day decrease of 2.93%, a year-on-year increase of 32.44%. The main futures 2201 closed at 4768, a decrease of 148, a decrease of 3.01%.

Recently, due to the restart of multiple sets of PTA units, the pressure on the accumulation pattern has increased, and the market mentality has weakened. Today, the short side of futures is strong. Meanwhile, the international oil price fell slightly, the domestic PX inventory was high, and the cost side support was weak. The polyester Market in downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, the industry starts to maintain around 84%, and the buying enthusiasm is insufficient. Under the superposition of multiple bad news, the price fell significantly today.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA market is mainly dragged down by supply and demand, lack of market confidence, and short-term prices will maintain a downward trend.

Commodity index: on September 5, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 90.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.31% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 9.46% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The data show that the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was 14750 yuan / ton on August 30 and 14850 yuan / ton on September 5, with a weekly increase of 0.68%.

Upstream raw materials:

Acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. Data monitoring shows that acrylic acid was quoted at 15266.67 yuan / ton on Monday and 14833.33 yuan / ton on Friday, with a weekly decrease of 2.84%.

The price of acrylonitrile, another main raw material of polyacrylamide, has been stable recently. The weekly quotation is about 14900 yuan / ton, which has a stable impact on polyacrylamide this week.

LNG is used in the production process. Last week, the domestic mainstream price of LNG rose first and then fell. On August 30, the average price of domestic LNG was 5910 yuan / ton, and on September 5, the mainstream price was 6062.67 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The quotation from September 1 to 2 is 6110 yuan / ton, the lowest point is 5910 yuan / ton on August 30, and the maximum amplitude is 3.38%.

Downstream demand: at present, the epidemic situation in the water treatment industry and the price of raw materials have changed slightly, and the demand adjustment range is not large. The downstream purchase price is normal, and the demand tends to be stable.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the water treatment industry looks forward to the upcoming traditional consumption peak season “golden nine silver ten” to boost demand; But at present, it is more likely that the future market will be stable.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the performance of hydrogen peroxide has been relatively stable since September, and a downward trend has been ushered in this week. On September 1, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 846 yuan / ton, and on September 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 836 yuan / ton, down 1.18%.

Terminal demand is weak, and hydrogen peroxide enters the downward channel

In the week from August 30 to September 3, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was stable, the market continued to be 846 yuan / ton, and the rise was stable. This week, due to the end paper industry, caprolactam manufacturers finished preparing goods, and the purchase demand turned weak, hydrogen peroxide opened a downward market, with a one-day decline of 1.18%. The quotation of water enterprises in Anhui increased slightly; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Shandong decreased by 40 yuan / ton; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers in Hebei is relatively stable.

On September 6, the price comparison index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 111.11, down 1.31 points from yesterday, down 54.83% from the highest point 246.00 in the cycle (October 21, 2019), and up 3.32% from the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to 2017-01-01 to now)

Corrugated base paper: with the end of Dongguan Jiulong base paper price preference and the impact of the reduction of waste paper price at the beginning of the week, the corrugated paper price has a slight downward trend. At present, due to the weak terminal demand, the strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, the slow shipment of dealers, the shortage of orders and the overall lack of market trading confidence, the price is in a state of stable and narrow fluctuation. From September 1 to 6, the price of corrugated paper fell by 0.79%, which dragged down the hydrogen peroxide Market to a certain extent, resulting in the decline of hydrogen peroxide Market.

Business community hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: the end of the terminal stock market, hydrogen peroxide has entered a weak adjustment period, and the future market will still be dominated by oscillation.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with a large amount of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the titanium dioxide market was basically stable this week. The average price of titanium dioxide in China is 21066.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market was basically stable. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19000-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17500-19000 yuan / ton. Recently, large factories have closed orders, Sichuan Environmental Protection Inspection and power rationing, and some manufacturers in Shandong have planned maintenance. The inventory of anatase titanium dioxide is low and the supply is tight. After entering Jinjiu, the demand for titanium dioxide is good, and the market price of titanium dioxide is expected to run upward.

According to the customs data, in July 2021, China’s titanium dioxide export was about 87500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.32% and a month on month decrease of 13.03%; From January to July 2021, the cumulative export volume was about 728000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.55%, and the cumulative export volume increased by 75400 tons from January to July 2020.

In July 2021, China imported about 17500 tons of titanium dioxide, an increase of 19.60% year-on-year and 7.04% month on month; The cumulative import from January to July was about 114800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.57%, and the import volume from January to July 2020 increased by about 22600 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi increased this week. Affected by environmental protection, the spot supply of titanium ore in Yunnan is tight and the manufacturer’s inventory is low. Affected by the epidemic, the supply of imported titanium ore also continued to be tight, and small and medium-sized miners were reluctant to sell titanium ore. At present, the quotation excluding tax of 38 grade titanium ore is 1550-1650 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is 2380-2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

According to the customs data, in July 2021, China imported 250700 tons of titanium ore, with a year-on-year increase of 15.95% and a month on month decrease of 29.99%; From January to July 2021, the cumulative import of titanium ore was about 2229900 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 27.48%, and a year-on-year increase of about 480100 tons from January to July 2020.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the bulk list data of business society, the price of sulfuric acid has been temporarily stable this week. So far, the average price of sulfuric acid in Shandong is 785 yuan / ton. In the short term, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently, some sulfuric acid manufacturers have insufficient operation, the load is reduced, the downstream formic acid market is gradually rising, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good. Stable operation of sulfuric acid

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst of business society believes that the current titanium dioxide market quotation is strong, the domestic demand is good, and the downstream purchases on demand. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the price of raw titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid was temporarily stable, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be strong and upward in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly discussed.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the current price of domestic PTA continued to weaken slightly on September 2. The average price of spot market was 4821 yuan / ton, a one-day decrease of 1.83% and a year-on-year increase of 33.52%. The main futures 2201 closed at 4832, a decrease of 80 and a decrease of 1.63%.

In terms of unit, the 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Sinopec was originally planned to be restarted in early September, but now it is planned to be restarted for one week. The operating rate of the industry remains above 80%. At present, PTA has accumulated inventory and sufficient supply. The production and sales of polyester in the downstream are flat, and the start-up remains near 82%. There is no sign of start-up in the peak season of the terminal. The market mentality is cautious, and the demand for PTA is not strong, mainly small order transactions. Superimposed on the shock decline of crude oil, PTA cost support also weakened.

Business analysts believe that the current PTA market supply slightly exceeds demand, which suppresses the price. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to decline.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the current price of domestic PTA weakened slightly on September 1, and the average price in the spot market was 4911 yuan / ton, a one-day decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 36.43%. The main futures 2201 closed at 4932, down 36, or 0.72%.

With the gradual restart of some units in PTA plant in late August, the cumulative pattern of PTA supply and demand is gradually emerging. The restart of Zhongtai chemical’s 1.2 million ton PTA unit is delayed, and the maintenance of Honggang Petrochemical’s 2.4 million ton unit is planned next week, or the cumulative inventory rate of PTA in September will be suspended. In terms of demand, although it is close to the golden nine silver ten peak season, the follow-up of new orders in the terminal textile market is slow. Therefore, the downstream polyester factory has few replenishments and the market transaction is light.

Business analysts believe that the supply and demand situation has weakened, which has suppressed the market, and PTA prices are expected to maintain a volatile downward trend.

Commodity index: on August 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 94.90, down 0.3 points from yesterday, down 12.94% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 12.55% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business community, from July to August 2021, China’s water treatment manufacturers experienced the biggest twists and turns in recent years. In late July, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. So far, the rainstorm has raided the local area, the road transportation is blocked, the manufacturers are difficult to find a car to ship, the freight has increased by 50 yuan to hundreds of yuan, and the cost has increased; The rainstorm also led to the flooding of warehouses of some industrial and mining enterprises, the shortage of raw materials for production and the shortage of market supply, resulting in the rise of the price of aquatic products; In addition, the delta virus has led to strict epidemic prevention and control, and the operation of the water treatment industry has been affected to a certain extent, especially in the first half of the month, and it continues to affect in the second half of the month. In the first half of this month, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed an upward trend. The domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 1687.78 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 15th was 1733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.7%; In the second half of the month, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China continued to rise steadily. On the 16th, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1735.56 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the mainstream price was 1755.56 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.15%. To sum up, the domestic mainstream price of polyacrylamide increased by 4.02% in August.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the ex factory price of hydrochloric acid in Shandong rose sharply in August, with a quotation of 226.67 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 293.33 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 29.41%. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. According to the manufacturer’s introduction, in Henan Province, due to strict environmental protection, some hydrochloric acid manufacturers stopped for maintenance. In addition, the previous flood damaged the manufacturer’s warehouse, and the transportation cost increased. The market price of hydrochloric acid increased, the supply of goods was tight, and the price was high, which had a great impact on the price of polyaluminium chloride.

LNG is used in the production process. On August 31, the average price of domestic LNG was 6076.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 930 yuan compared with 5146.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 18.07% in the month and 150.07% compared with the same period last year. The price rise this month is still a commonplace cost rise, the low inventory of liquid plant, the increase of urban fuel replenishment demand and other favorable factors continue to increase, and the price of domestic LNG market continues to rise in the off-season. According to the analysis of the business society, the domestic LNG off-season fluctuated higher in August, and the prices in many places have exceeded the 6000 mark. At present, the favorable factors have not been reduced, and the costs continue to be high. The off-season factors may be difficult to contain the upward trend of liquid prices. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise, which is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future.

Downstream demand: in July and August, the water treatment industry experienced too much. The weather and epidemic disasters affected the production, raw material supply and shipment to a certain extent, Limited Logistics and transportation, and it was difficult to find one vehicle. The price of some raw materials was high due to shutdown and tight supply; In the second half of this month, Gongyi region suffered another rainstorm disaster, and the local response to the rainstorm disaster was strengthened, but some enterprises also had to stop production and business for a few days. It is reported that the demand improved slightly this month, especially under the influence of Rainstorm in the early stage, the influence of Rainstorm in the later stage gradually subsided, the demand became lighter, and the purchase price returned to normal.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the supply of raw materials has been tight since the rainstorm in Zhengzhou, and the downstream demand has improved to a certain extent, which still plays an obvious role in supporting the price of polyaluminium chloride this month; Epidemic control and rainstorm damage the roads, making it difficult to get a car, rising freight costs and rising delivery costs of manufacturers. In the future, according to the traditional consumption characteristics, the current water treatment industry should usher in the annual peak consumption season, and then superimposed with the influence of supply side and freight factors, the subsequent market of polyaluminium chloride is likely to rise gently.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price trend of acetic acid rose slightly this week. On August 27, the price of acetic acid was 6060.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% compared with the quotation of 6050.00 yuan / ton on August 21, an increase of 1.28% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 27, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region August 21st August 27th Price rise and fall

East China 5850-6600 yuan / ton 5850-6600 yuan / ton 0

South China 5850-5900 yuan / ton 5850-5900 yuan / ton 0

North China 5950-6100 yuan / ton 5950-6100 yuan / ton 0

Shandong region 5900-6000 yuan / ton 5900-6100 yuan / ton one hundred

Jiangsu region 5850-6000 yuan / ton 5850-5950 yuan / ton – fifty

Zhejiang region 5900-6000 yuan / ton 5900-6000 yuan / ton 0

Hebei region 6050-6100 yuan / ton 6050-6100 yuan / ton 0

This week, domestic acetic acid enterprises were on the sidelines. The inventory of acetic acid enterprises was tight, the price was stable at a high level, the shipment of enterprises was mainly negotiated, the actual transaction was slightly lower, the production and sales of enterprises were relatively stable, the supply of acetic acid market was sufficient, the downstream demand was ok, the purchase just needed to be followed up, the market trading was light and stable, and the situation was on the sidelines.

In the downstream, the market of vinyl acetate continued to operate on a wait-and-see basis. The market trend of butyl acetate was strong, supported by the rising price of raw material n-butanol, butyl acetate was strong and upward, the price increased within the week, the downstream demand response was general, the transaction was limited, and the future market was in a stalemate; The ethyl acetate Market was weak. The price trend fluctuated downward during the week, with an overall decline of 1.20%. There was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the field, the market trading was general, the downstream follow-up was not smooth, and the market continued to fluctuate in the later stage.

Business analysts believe that in terms of supply in the domestic market, although there are enterprise device maintenance, the overall supply performance is sufficient, the downstream just needs to follow up, the trading is OK, and the enterprise production and sales are basically running smoothly. It is expected that the future market will continue to be stable for a while, and pay attention to the market transaction.