According to the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system: During this cycle, the domestic No. 1 antimony ingot market experienced a fluctuating trend with initial declines followed by rebounds. The average price on January 1 stood at 162,000 yuan/ton, while it dropped to 161,000 yuan/ton on January 15, reflecting a 0.62% decrease. Antimony prices saw minor adjustments within the range, accompanied by strong market reluctance to sell. Coupled with the macro metal market rally and changes in export policies, industry expectations for post-holiday performance have risen, placing the short-term market in a phase of consolidation and momentum-building.
Macro Perspective: General Rise in Metals and Policy Impact
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Recently, in the domestic bulk commodities market, prices of both general and strategic metal varieties have generally risen, with strong overall bullish sentiment. As an important strategic mineral, antimony has also attracted investor attention, leading to a concurrent rise in market expectations for its price increase. The support from capital flows and market sentiment has further reinforced the reluctance of holders to sell, serving as a key factor behind the volatile price trend of antimony in this cycle.
On January 6, China issued a relevant announcement prohibiting the export of military and dual-use items to Japan, with antimony, as a strategic mineral, being included in the controlled list and explicitly banned from export to Japan. While the announcement emphasizes that civilian trade remains unaffected, practical implementation involving usage-oriented reviews may still impact antimony product exports to Japan. The policy’s effects on domestic antimony export volumes and prices have yet to materialize, necessitating continued monitoring of enforcement details and market feedback
Supply side: Refineries show low willingness to ship, making it difficult to replenish raw materials
During this cycle, suppliers generally remained optimistic about the post-holiday market outlook, with overall shipment intentions remaining low. Most controlled their supply pace to reduce spot circulation. Meanwhile, securing high-quality, low-priced antimony concentrate remained challenging, as northern mines faced operational constraints due to climatic factors, making low-priced concentrate scarce. The tight supply situation in the raw material sector further reinforced refiners’ price-holding mindset. Under these circumstances, some suppliers and traders capitalized on the opportunity to withhold stock, even actively hoarding inventory and reducing spot supply. This further intensified the tight supply dynamics in the spot market, prolonging the post-holiday market recovery period
Demand side: Traditional demand remains stable, while high-end demand accelerates
In traditional downstream demand, antimony accounts for approximately 55% in flame retardant materials and about 15% in glass. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in photovoltaic glass production. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the primary growth in antimony metal demand will be in the photovoltaic sector.
Antimony oxide: As a core deep-processed product in the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide primarily exists in the form of antimony trioxide, with its main application in the flame retardant sector. It also extends to scenarios such as photovoltaic glass and electronic materials. Its market trends are strongly linked to antimony ingots. Recently, the antimony oxide market has shown relative stability, with average performance in exports and an overall weak market sentiment, driven by rigid demand.
Photovoltaics: Short-term demand under pressure. Sodium antimonite is the core clarifying agent for photovoltaic glass, supporting the production of double-glass modules. Currently, antimony usage in photovoltaics accounts for approximately 27%, making it the second-largest consumption sector for antimony. Recently, demand for photovoltaic glass has contracted due to declining module production schedules and high inventory levels, indirectly suppressing short-term demand for antimony ingots. However, in the long term, the penetration rate of double-glass modules continues to rise, and antimony demand in the photovoltaic sector is expected to steadily grow, providing solid long-term support for the antimony market.
Outlook for the future: In the short term, the domestic antimony market has entered a stage of pre holiday accumulation, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market will gradually become flat before the Spring Festival. Refineries and holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, and downstream procurement is mainly focused on meeting demand. Both buyers and sellers have no intention of significantly adjusting prices. It is expected that the antimony ingot market price will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the current range, and the possibility of significant fluctuations is low.
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