Supply decrease leads to post-holiday cobalt price fluctuations and rise

Cobalt prices fluctuated upward after the holiday

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Business Society: On February 26, the cobalt price was 440,100 yuan/ton, fluctuating up from 425,300 yuan/ton on February 14, marking a 3.48% increase; compared to February 1′s price of 444,800 yuan/ton, it first fell and then rose, showing a 1.06% decrease. After the Spring Festival, with the recovery of new energy vehicle sales and rising demand in the cobalt market, coupled with reduced supply, the cobalt price fluctuated upward in the post-holiday period.
Cobalt market supply outlook
On February 18, Sumitomo Corporation announced that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down due to damage to its facilities from Tropical Cyclone Gazu, which struck the island last week. Ambatovy, owned by Sumitomo, produced approximately 28,000 metric tons of nickel and 2,500 tons of cobalt in 2024, with the state-owned Korea Mining and Reconstruction Corporation (KOMIR) involved. The suspension of cobalt production in Madagascar is expected to reduce market supply.
Cobalt market demand trends
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2026, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 2.5% and 0.1%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 40.3% of total automobile sales. Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in terms of power battery installations: in January, domestic power battery installations totaled 42.0 GWh, a 57.2% month-on-month decline but a 8.4% year-on-year increase. Among this, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery installations reached 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of total installations, down 48.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year. Although new energy vehicle production and sales saw slight growth in January, the declining share of NMC battery installations, coupled with the promotion of low-cobalt batteries, has led to reduced expectations for cobalt market demand growth.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Business Society data analysts believe that the slow growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, coupled with declining demand expectations in the cobalt market, the shutdown of cobalt mines in Madagascar, and reduced supply in the cobalt market, along with post-February holiday restocking by domestic downstream customers, led to a temporary rise in cobalt demand. Overall, supported by demand and reduced supply, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the future.