Copper prices fluctuated and remained weak this week (1.12-1.16)

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the 16th, copper prices were reported at 101810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.42% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 49.56%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 6 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 141125 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 2.84% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically speaking, at the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched a crackdown on Venezuela and seized resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland, leading to an increase in risk aversion. The US dollar seized the opportunity to rebound, oil prices fell, stock markets fluctuated, precious metals such as gold and silver retreated, and copper prices fell under pressure. The central bank decisively lowered the refinancing and rediscount interest rates.
Supply side: Major copper producing countries such as Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have experienced supply disruptions due to strikes, natural disasters, and geopolitical conflicts. ICSG predicts that the global copper production growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1%. Coupled with the siphon effect of possible tariffs imposed by the United States, the expectation of tight supply in non US regions has been strengthened. However, the domestic copper concentrate spot TC has fallen to a historical low, indicating that supply fragility has been partially priced, and the short-term bullish margin has weakened.
On the demand side: Domestic terminals are in the off-season, with weak transactions and continuous accumulation of social inventory. The inventory on the warehouse receipts in the previous period exceeded 140000 tons. However, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, State Grid Corporation of China set a new high of 4 trillion yuan in investment for power grid upgrading and renovation, providing a bottom line support for the high operation of copper prices.
In summary, under the situation of supply disturbance, the US dollar has risen, and coupled with downstream processing enterprises gradually taking holidays before the Spring Festival, demand driven procurement dominates the market. During the inventory accumulation period in January and February, it is expected that copper prices will maintain a mainly volatile and weak trend.