This week, the melamine industry is facing significant supply and demand pressure, with prices continuing to decline and overall market sentiment being bearish. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared to last week (5562.25 yuan/ton).
| Melamine |
The current weak performance of the market is the result of supply-demand imbalance, weakened cost support, and the combined effect of external environment.
Oversupply: The industry’s production capacity continues to increase, but downstream demand has not kept up, resulting in a low operating rate of 69% for enterprises. Even if some companies undergo temporary maintenance, it is difficult to reverse the overall situation of loose supply.
Weak demand: The core downstream board industry is underperforming due to the sluggish real estate market. At the same time, the market’s mentality of “buying up and not buying down” has also made downstream purchases more cautious, resulting in a weak overall buying and selling atmosphere.
Weakened cost support: The price of the main raw material urea is in a weak downward channel, and the cost support for melamine is insufficient, providing space for price decline. As of October 15th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (1621.25 yuan/ton).
Export obstruction: The EU has imposed anti-dumping duties on multiple Chinese companies, increasing export difficulties and further exacerbating sales pressure in the domestic market.
Based on comprehensive information from various sources, the melamine market is unlikely to see any improvement in the short term, and the market is expected to continue a weak consolidation pattern. The contradiction between supply and demand remains the core issue, and any rebound in prices will face significant resistance.
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