On June 24th, international crude oil futures plummeted to a two-week low. The settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $64.37 per barrel, a decrease of $4.14 or 6.0%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $67.14 per barrel, a decrease of $4.34 or 6.1%. The expected ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East.
The PTA market followed the decline in crude oil prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 24th, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market shifted downwards. The average price of PTA in the East China region was 5114 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 3.18%. On the supply side, domestic supply has slightly shrunk. The overall construction rate of the industry is around 78%.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Downstream polyester maintains essential procurement, and the polyester production load remains at around 90% in late June. However, there are still expectations of reducing the burden, and the officially announced maintenance plan for the polyester plant is scheduled for July. Under the influence of the off-season effect, the number of orders from terminal textile enterprises is insufficient, and new orders are still mostly small autumn and winter sample orders. Entering August, the weather is hot and the off-season characteristics are obvious. The production reduction efforts of polyester factories will further increase, so the expectation of weak demand is strong.
Business analysts believe that in the future, strong geopolitical uncertainty will amplify oil price fluctuations, and the supply of PX raw materials will return. The new PTA plant has been put into operation and gradually increased its load, leading to an increase in domestic supply. Coupled with a certain decrease in downstream polyester industry load, there is an expectation of a weakening in PTA supply and demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to operate primarily at cost in the short term.
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