This week, the domestic melamine market stabilized and remained stagnant. As of June 24th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton).
| Melamine |
Recently, the domestic melamine market has shown a weak consolidation trend, and there are multiple factors that contribute to the price game. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, upstream production enterprises stimulate market transactions by actively lowering their quotations (with low-end prices reaching the range of 5200-5400 yuan/ton), coupled with periodic replenishment of international orders, effectively digesting enterprise inventory levels and gradually reducing some low-priced sources to a reasonable range.
The fluctuation and decline of urea prices on the raw material side have weakened the cost support, while the shortened pre order cycle of production enterprises has further constrained their ability to act on prices. On the downstream demand side, there is a clear wait-and-see situation, and processing enterprises are constrained by sufficient reserves of low-priced raw materials in the early stage and low operating loads. The current procurement strategy tends to replenish inventory on demand, leading to a “price sensitive” stalemate in market trading. This pattern of multiple intertwined factors has maintained a weak balance in the melamine market in the short term.
In the later stage, the melamine market trend is relatively weak.
The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has slightly increased this week. Currently, with the support of undelivered orders, the shipping pressure on production enterprises is not yet significant. However, as orders continue to be executed, market supply is expected to gradually increase. At the same time, downstream factories have a low acceptance of high priced raw materials and a clear resistance mentality. Manufacturers may face adjustments in their pricing strategy and market mentality in order to maintain the pace of shipments.
The mainstream price of urea in the current market remains stable, but prices in some areas have loosened and declined. As of June 24th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1824.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.59% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton). Although downstream demand has been followed up, it is mainly driven by cautious sentiment and focuses on small order replenishment. In terms of supply, the daily production of urea remains high, coupled with the expectation of international price inversion and coal weakening, the bearish atmosphere in the market is gradually becoming stronger. However, the factory’s pending orders are still supported and the social inventory is low. The quotation is temporarily stable, and the market has entered a wait-and-see game stage. It is expected that the short-term market will show a fluctuating and weak trend.
Overall, the melamine market lacks strong positive support. In the short term, relying on existing advance orders, the market will maintain a stalemate. However, as the orders are gradually digested, the supply and demand sides will once again engage in a game. The future price trend will depend on the dynamic changes in supply and demand, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the evolution of market participants’ mentality.
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