China’s import volume and dependence on imports have steadily declined in recent years
Application and Industry Chain of A Styrene
Styrene is an important liquid chemical raw material. It belongs to monocyclic aromatic hydrocarbons with olefin side chain and conjugated with benzene ring. It is the simplest and most important member of unsaturated aromatic hydrocarbons. Styrene is widely used as raw material for synthetic resins and rubber. Styrene is an important basic organic raw material for petrochemical industry. The direct upstream of styrene is styrene and ethylene, and the downstream is relatively dispersed. The main products involved are foamed polystyrene, polystyrene, ABS resin, rubber, unsaturated polyester resin and styrene copolymers. The terminals are mainly used in plastics and synthetic rubber products.
Overview of Pure Benzene Market for B Raw Material
global market
The direct upstream of styrene is pure styrene and ethylene, in which pure styrene accounts for about 60% of the cost of styrene (styrene cost formula is 0.79 * pure styrene + 0.29 * ethylene + a certain cost). The downstream of pure benzene mainly includes styrene, caprolactam, aniline and phenol ketone, among which the largest downstream is styrene. Global pure benzene production and consumption remained stable from 2011 to 2017. In 2014, global pure benzene consumption slowed down compared with production growth, resulting in a small surplus of pure benzene supply; in 2015, with the rebound of pure benzene demand, pure benzene production began to rise to the bottom; in 2016-2017, global pure benzene supply and demand steadily rebounded. By the end of 2017, global pure benzene production reached 86.54 million tons and consumption reached 85.94 million tons.
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Global pure benzene production is mainly concentrated in East Asia, North America and other Asia-Pacific regions, which account for 78.7% of global total benzene production. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 62.4% of the global total production of pure benzene. From the perspective of global pure benzene trade flows, East Asia and other Asia-Pacific regions are the main exporters, while China and North America are the main importers. Among them, China’s pure benzene imports show an increasing trend year by year, while North America’s imports declined significantly in 2017.
Chinese Market
In 2013, China’s pure benzene industry witnessed a wave of production expansion peak, with production capacity approaching 10 million tons. The next peak is expected to occur in 2019-2021. From the point of view of pure benzene demand, domestic pure benzene consumption has maintained a stable and high-speed growth trend, the largest downstream is styrene, followed by caprolactam, and it will still be the driving force of downstream demand growth in the future. Due to strong demand, the dependence on pure benzene imports has increased year by year, from about 3% in 2011 to 21% in 2018. The main source countries of imports are Korea, Japan and Thailand. In 2017, the dependence on pure benzene imports has reached 85%. By the end of 2018, China had 12.76 million tons of pure benzene production, 89.78 million tons of production, 25.77 million tons of imports and 12.1 million tons of apparent consumption.
C Global Supply and Demand Structure of Styrene
supply
In 2010, the global production capacity of styrene expanded substantially, with an annual capacity increase of about 2.78 million tons and a capacity growth rate of nearly 10%. The main reason is that the consumption of downstream products of styrene (most of which are used in household appliances, automobiles and building materials) in the world, especially in China, increased by more than 15% in 2009 and 2010. 。 After 2010, the growth rate of global styrene production slowed down gradually. By the end of 2017, the global styrene production capacity reached 33.724 million tons.
The global production capacity of styrene is mainly concentrated in East Asia, North America and Western Europe, which account for 78.9% of the global production capacity of styrene. In addition, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for 52% of the world’s total production capacity of styrene.
From the perspective of global output distribution, with the breakthrough of domestic production technology, the main production areas of styrene in the world are mainly transferred from Europe and America to Asia, especially China, which accounts for a rapid increase in the proportion of global styrene production. In addition, the global styrene industry is relatively concentrated. In 2017, the world’s top 10 production enterprises accounted for about 35% of the global total production capacity, and the top 17 production enterprises accounted for about half of the global production capacity.
demand
The downstream demand for styrene is relatively dispersed, and the end products are mainly plastic products and rubber rubber. According to the global downstream demand for styrene in 2016, 37.8% of styrene is used in polystyrene, 22.1% in foamed polystyrene, 15.9% in ABS resin, 9.9% in styrene-butadiene rubber, 4.8% in unsaturated resin and so on.
The main downstream of styrene is styrene polymer polystyrene. Polystyrene has the advantages of transparency, low cost, rigidity, insulation and good printability. It can be impregnated with low boiling point hydrocarbon foaming agent to form hair-able beads. Polystyrene foam has the properties of heat insulation, sound insulation, low temperature resistance, light weight, elasticity and so on. It has the advantages of low water absorption. According to the physical and chemical properties of polystyrene, it can be divided into non-expandable polystyrene and expandable polystyrene. Non-expansible polystyrene mainly includes general-purpose polystyrene and high impact polystyrene. The former is mainly used in electronic and electrical appliances, daily necessities industry, and the latter is mainly used in building materials and packaging materials.
ABS is the second largest styrene derivative. ABS is a copolymer of acrylonitrile (A), butadiene (B) and styrene (S). It has the advantages of impact strength, good oil resistance, water resistance, chemical stability and good cold resistance. It is mainly used in the production of injection moulding products, sheets and films. The end users are mainly automobiles, electronics and households. Electrical appliances, construction pipe industry.
Styrene-butadiene rubber is mainly made of styrene and butadiene. Styrene-butadiene rubber is widely used in tires, belts, rubber shoes and many other rubber products. Styrene-butadiene latex is used in textiles and papermaking. Unsaturated polyester resin is also a major consumer area of styrene, mainly used in the production of FRP products, coatings and building materials.
Driven by China’s dramatic increase in styrene consumption, the global growth rate of styrene consumption is around 11%. After 2010, the growth rate of styrene consumption in China and the world has fallen to a high level. In 2017, the global consumption of styrene was mainly concentrated in East Asia, Western Europe and North America, which accounted for 82.8% of the global consumption of styrene and more than half of the consumption in Asia-Pacific region.
Combining with the global distribution of styrene production capacity and demand, we can see the global trade flow of styrene, the excess production capacity of styrene in the Middle East, East Asia and North America, which are the net export areas of styrene, while China has the largest styrene gap, of which China’s net import of styrene in 2017 is about 3.42 million tons.
D Situation of Styrene Import and Export in China
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Supply and demand situation
Before 2011, the production capacity of styrene in China was put into operation centrally, especially in 2009, which increased by 15.95 million tons, an increase of 50% compared with 2008. After 2011, with the downstream growth slowing down, the growth rate of styrene production slowed down. By 2014, the growth rate of styrene production was only 0.7%. From 2015 to 2018, the overall growth rate of styrene production was stable. With the rapid development of the styrene industry, import decreases and import dependence decreases year by year, from about 51% in 2010 to about 26% in 2018. By the end of 2018, there were 44 domestic styrene manufacturers, 52 production lines, 9.217 million tons of styrene production capacity, 8.116 million tons of output, 2.914 million tons of imports and 11.125 million tons of apparent consumption in China. 10 thousand tons. However, from 2019 to 2020, with the steady advancement of domestic private refining and chemical integration units, supporting downstream styrene units will be put into operation one after another, and a new round of centralized production of domestic styrene units, the domestic styrene supply and demand pattern may change from insufficient capacity to gradually surplus.
New capacity
With the centralized production of large private refineries in China, a large number of new production capacity of styrene will be put into operation in the future. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China has orderly promoted domestic private refining and chemical integration projects. At present, tens of millions of integrated refining and chemical projects such as Hengli, Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, Shenghong Petrochemical Company and Xuyang Petrochemical Company have been approved to enter the peak period of construction, and most of the large refining and chemical enterprises are equipped with downstream styrene units. In addition to private refineries, the high profits of styrene in the past two years have also attracted some enterprises to increase the input of styrene production capacity. Roughly estimated that the planned additional capacity of styrene in 2019-2020 will exceed 8 million tons, and the concentrated period of styrene production will come in the next two years.
Import and export situation
With the increase of new domestic production capacity, the import volume and import dependence of styrene in China have steadily declined in recent years. According to customs data, the main importing countries of styrene in China in 2018 are Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc. Before 2017, the main source countries of styrene import are Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United States, of which South Korea is the largest source. On June 23, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce of China imposed an anti-dumping duty of 3.8%-55.7% on imports of styrene originating in Korea and the United States for a period of five years, which led to a significant decline in the proportion of Chinese imports from Korea in the second half of 2018, with Saudi Arabia and Japan becoming the main source countries of imports.
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