The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 3783.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price was 3776.67 yuan/ton. Within the week, the decline was 0.18%, which was 12.58% lower than that of the same period last year.
II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Domestic liquefied petroleum gas fell first and then rose this week, and the trading atmosphere in the market improved. As of August 16, the ex-factory price of liquefied gas of Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3210 yuan/ton, that of Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3380 yuan/ton, that of Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3160 yuan/ton, that of Qingdao Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3480 yuan/ton, and that of Shandong Gold Co., Ltd. The liquefied gas ex-factory price of Chengdu Petrochemical Group is 3650 yuan/ton, and that of Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical Branch of Sinopec is 3600 yuan/ton. Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Liquefied Gas ex-factory price is 3600 yuan/ton.
Industry chain: This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose first and then declined. The average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3176.67 yuan/ton on August 9, and 3040 yuan/ton on August 16. Within a week, the price of dimethyl ether (Henan) fell by 4.3%, 33.98% compared with the same period last year. This week the propane market continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average propane market price was 3602.5 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3702.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, it rose by 2.78%, and the price fell by 22.8% compared with the same period last year. Saudi Amy Corp. announced in August that the price of propane was narrowly lowered and the price of butane was narrowly increased. Propane was 370 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from last month; butane was 360 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from last month. The cost of long cargo propane is about 3056 yuan per ton on shore and 2980 yuan per ton on butane. At present, it is in the off-season of consumption. The market demand is slow and the consumption rate is declining. The downstream is mostly replenished on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. The liquefied petroleum gas market fell first and then rose this week. Affected by typhoon weather at the beginning of the week, there was rainfall in Shandong, which affected the production and loading and unloading of manufacturers. In addition, the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals was limited, the trading atmosphere was cold and the price trend was weak. Later by the international crude oil boom to bring good market, prices generally increased, trading atmosphere improved significantly, smooth shipment.
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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are six kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector in the commodity price rise-fall list in the 32nd week of 2019 (8.12-8.16). Among them, there are one commodity with an increase of more than 5%, which accounts for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities with a rise are coke (6.29%), gasoline (2.26%) and methanol (1.92%). There are nine kinds of commodities that have declined annually. The first three products are dimethyl ether (-4.60%), liquefied natural gas (-3.53%) and power coal (-1.20%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.14%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Liquefied petroleum gas analysts of business associations believe that the current trend of international crude oil is uncertain, and news support is limited in the face of the market. But the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine Silvers and Ten Decades” is coming, and the market demand is increasing. Expect late or upstream shocks.