Recently, the price of urea, which was originally weak, has risen slightly. Whether it is hype or not, most traders in various markets are not optimistic about the current market, indicating that urea prices are still doomed to decline. At this time, the ammonium chloride market is also in a weak position. The quotation from factories (pay attention to the publicity quotation for the information platform) is relatively strong, but the report is high and the quotation is low. The actual transaction is declining.
At present, the domestic market of wet ammonium and dry ammonium still shows some differences. The market of wet ammonium is slightly better than that of dry ammonium, but if the prices of some ammonium continue to fall, wet ammonium will inevitably be affected by this. At present, some of the mainstream dry ammonium ex-factory quotations in central China are around 680-720 yuan/ton, but the actual reference price to the factory is about 710-720 yuan/ton; the mainstream wet ammonium ex-factory quotations in eastern China are about 600-650 yuan/ton, with favorable transaction rates, while the mainstream dry ammonium ex-factory quotations are between 720-750 yuan/ton. The actual reference price has fallen to only 700 yuan/ton, of which the dry ammonium quotation is slightly higher. Most ammonium supply to Shandong market arrived at about 750 yuan/ton; dry ammonium ex-factory quotation in North China was firm at 720 yuan/ton, but under the trend of rising start-up, the price is expected to fall.
It is difficult to support the overall operation of joint alkali enterprises at a high level. Some ammonium chloride enterprises said that they would carry out overhaul this month, but according to the latest knowledge, factories have said that the overhaul time will be delayed until late or mid-next month, and a few ammonium chloride enterprises in North and East China will resume production by the end of this month, which means that the overall industry start-up rate of the United alkali enterprises will be the same. Up to now, according to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, it has risen to 76%. In the short run, it will continue to maintain this level or above, and it is difficult for the factory to improve its shipment. However, in the long run, if the ammonium chloride enterprises are repaired as scheduled in September, the start-up rate will be reduced.
Demand is weak, the market may be “overdrawn” in advance. First, affected by Typhoon Lichma, the compound fertilizer enterprises in some parts of East China were forced to stop short or start-up rate was reduced. Second, under the environmental protection and safety inspection, some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises were forced to limit or stop production, such as East China, Central China, Southwest China and other regions, which showed slightly obvious performance, while for compound fertilizer plants, purchasing. The third is the 70th anniversary of the celebration, which will inevitably restrict the production of chemical fertilizers and chemical enterprises in the surrounding areas. According to some ammonium chloride enterprises in Shaanxi Province, the production of compound fertilizers around September will be restricted or stopped. Businessmen and enterprises do not “catch a cold” to light storage. Fall fertilizer production has considerable demand for wet ammonium, but they have no choice but to overdraft the market ahead of time. Dry ammonium is difficult. However, the light storage in Northeast and Northwest China has not started yet, the time is not yet said, the price has not reached the bottom, so the terminal has no intention of purchasing, forcing enterprises to reduce prices.
However, urea is weak and its support to ammonium chloride is weak. Although a small number of urea enterprises in Shandong and Hebei have increased urea quotation by 10-40 yuan/ton since Wednesday, it has not caused a big disturbance. Traders are still very rational. Considering market factors, it is generally believed that urea market is “hype” with a short duration and little support for ammonium chloride.
In conclusion, the market of ammonium chloride has more negative factors than positive ones, so the market turns to weak. Although some enterprises are unwilling to “admit” that the price has fallen, it is useless. It is expected that in the off-season and at the high level of ammonium chloride enterprises, the low level of urea, environmental protection and “parade blue” will affect some raw material fertilizers and compound fertilizers. Restrictions such as start-up of enterprises, it is expected that the price of dry ammonium still has room for a slow decline. Although wet ammonium is relatively strong, it can not withstand the long-term negative impact of the price reduction of dry ammonium.