In recent times, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, and shipping safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. International crude oil prices have surged significantly, leading to the overall strengthening of energy driven sectors. As an important synthetic rubber variety downstream of crude oil, butadiene rubber (BR) has seen a significant increase driven by cost and sentiment.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% from 13010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainly affected by increased inventory, decreased raw material prices, and insufficient downstream production after the holiday.
The surge in crude oil prices has opened up space for cost increases
The Middle East conflict directly impacts the global energy supply chain, with Brent crude oil and domestic crude oil futures soaring significantly. The price of raw materials for butadiene rubber has risen, providing solid bottom support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3rd, the price of butadiene was 10293 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
On the 3rd, the futures of Shunding rubber significantly jumped short and opened high, and the spot market followed suit positively. Mainstream suppliers such as PetroChina and Sinopec raised their ex factory prices, while spot prices in East China, North China, and Shandong collectively rose, and the weekly increase significantly expanded.
High inventory pressure, slow demand repair
After the holiday, the overall operation of domestic butadiene rubber plants will remain at 80% load, and the market supply is abundant. However, some plants are scheduled for maintenance in March, and there is a marginal contraction expectation on the supply side. But after the holiday, social inventory continued to accumulate to a high level, becoming the main suppressing factor for price increases and limiting the room for growth. Downstream tire companies are gradually resuming work and production, but the recovery is slow. In the early stage, overall procurement was mainly based on demand, and there is currently a weak willingness to chase after high prices. The demand side has not yet formed a strong driving force.
Overall, the recent rise in butadiene rubber prices is a result of both cost and emotional benefits brought about by the Middle East conflict, rather than a fundamental reversal in supply and demand patterns. Before the conflict clearly eases, crude oil is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the pattern of strong fluctuations in butadiene rubber continues. However, high inventory and weak reality will lead to a fluctuating upward rhythm and significantly increased volatility.

In the evening session, Shanghai tin fell sharply, with the main contract falling more than 7% at one point. Today, the price center continued to shift downwards, and the main contract hit the limit down in the late session, with a drop of 12%, at 394890 yuan/ton.

The changes in the local geopolitical situation in Myanmar have not yet had a substantial impact on the production and transportation of tin mines. At the same time, substantial progress has been made in addressing the long-standing challenges that have hindered the development of Myanmar’s mining areas, and the Wa State region may be expected to achieve full resumption of production. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and market panic is spreading, causing Shanghai tin prices to hit the limit down.
supply side
The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar is accelerating. On February 27, 2026, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Management Bureau issued a notice on the cost allocation process related to deep mines, which detailed the cost sharing process, aiming to further promote the resumption of production in high-grade tin mining areas at low altitudes. With the re establishment of stable expectations for tin ore supply in Myanmar, the emotional factors that previously supported the market have weakened.
demand side
There is a clear trend of structural differentiation, with strong expectations for demand growth in emerging fields such as AI computing infrastructure and advanced packaging. However, traditional demand areas have shown a sluggish performance, and overall demand presents a significant feature of strong expectations and weak reality coexisting. In February, downstream consumption significantly contracted, and even after excluding the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the actual demand level was only barely satisfactory. At present, tin prices are still relatively high in history, and the high cost pressure greatly inhibits the enthusiasm of end users to replenish inventory.
In terms of the spot market, the supply side situation is turbulent, and at the same time, macro risks have reappeared, resulting in significant price fluctuations and adjustments. Traders’ willingness to ship has increased, and the quantity of goods shipped has also increased; Although the terminal market has not fully resumed production, the low price advantage has attracted some users to make purchases. At present, the activity of the spot market has significantly increased compared to before, and according to market feedback, the trading situation has improved.
comprehensive analysis
The situation in Iran continues to escalate and ferment, and in this market situation, risk assets are easily killed by market sentiment. Currently, funds are mainly focused on chemical products, and Myanmar has accelerated the pace of resuming production. However, in the short term, due to factors such as tight raw material supply and expectations of production, there is still some support below, and it is expected that the market will maintain a high volatility trend. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (3.1-3.3), with an average market price of 435060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 411120 yuan/ton as of March 3, a decrease of 5.48%.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 28, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9540 yuan/ton. Compared to February 1 (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 9650 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14%.

Supply and demand are weak in February, and the silicon metal # 441 market is experiencing a narrow decline
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early February, the domestic market price of metal silicon 441 # showed range oscillation. At the beginning of the month, some areas stopped work for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply and a narrow increase in the market price of silicon metal 441, with an increase of 10-50 yuan/ton. However, due to cautious demand and limited market price increases, the market has fallen. On February 14th, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 # in East China was 9300-9600 yuan/ton.
Returning from the holiday, the metal silicon market still lacks effective support, and loose supply and demand transmission still exists. The overall focus of market price negotiations has declined. On February 28th, the reference price for the metal silicon market in East China was 9200-9500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton in the latter half of the year.
fundamental analysis
On the supply side: In February, the overall production of metallic silicon in China was at a low level, and the supply side showed a contraction. However, some factories did not have a strong willingness to lower prices, and the transmission effect on the supply side was average.
In terms of demand: In February, the downstream demand for metallic silicon showed average follow-up performance, and the organic silicon market was in the off-season, with limited performance in raw material procurement and stocking. The demand for polycrystalline silicon was cautious, with a focus on essential procurement. Overall, the purchasing enthusiasm in the end market was not strong, and the overall stocking performance was rational.
Market analysis in the future
The overall demand recovery of the metal silicon market after the holiday is slow, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is light. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that the weak supply-demand pattern in the metal silicon market will continue in the short term. By mid March, the inquiry atmosphere in the metal silicon market may improve, and the overall market demand will steadily increase. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (2.24-2.28), with an average market price of 16550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16750 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.21%.

The magnesium market continues to steadily recover after the holiday, with prices showing a moderate upward trend. The mainstream transaction price of Mg99.90 raw magnesium has risen by about 200 yuan/ton since the market opened after the holiday. As of February 27th, the mainstream ex factory cash price including tax in Shaanxi production areas has risen to 16600-16700 yuan/ton. The overall market is in a tight supply-demand balance state: there is a strong reluctance to sell on the supply side, and spot circulation is tight; Downstream enterprises on the demand side are resuming work and accelerating, but the replenishment of inventory has not yet been fully released. New orders are mainly delivered before the holiday. The high cost provides a solid bottom support for prices, and it is expected that magnesium prices will continue to rise slightly next week as downstream production resumes comprehensively.
supply side
The production end remains stable. Magnesium smelting enterprises in the main production areas of Shaanxi and Shanxi have maintained normal production without large-scale maintenance or shutdown. According to research, the comprehensive operating rate in the main production areas is about 75% -80%, which is basically the same as before the holiday. Some companies have reported that due to sufficient pre-sale orders before the holiday, the current focus is on executing pre orders, and the available resources for spot sales are limited. The reluctance to sell drives up the quotation. Affected by cost support and optimistic expectations for the future market, factories are generally reluctant to sell at low prices.
Demand side:
Downstream processing enterprises resume work in an orderly manner. As the impact of the Spring Festival holiday fades, the return rate of employees in processing enterprises such as magnesium alloy and magnesium powder has increased, and most enterprises have returned to 60% -70% of their normal production level. However, the procurement pace is relatively cautious, mainly constrained by two factors: first, the pre holiday inventory is still being digested, and the enterprise has not yet started large-scale replenishment; Secondly, there is a wait-and-see attitude towards the current continuously rising prices, hoping to purchase after the prices stabilize. This week’s spot market transactions were mainly based on pre holiday order deliveries, with relatively light new order transactions, but the activity of inquiries has significantly increased compared to last week.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, the magnesium market has steadily advanced in the post holiday recovery channel this week, with tight supply-demand balance and cost support jointly driving prices up moderately. With the traditional peak consumption season approaching in March, the market is expected to usher in a pattern of strong supply and demand, and magnesium prices have the foundation to continue to rise.