According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of light rare earths in the domestic market has been rising recently. On January 26th, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 595 points, up 13 points from yesterday, a decrease of 40.91% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 119.56% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
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Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 26th, the price of neodymium oxide was 722500 yuan/ton, with a 2.21% increase on the 5th; The price of neodymium metal is 852500 yuan/ton, with a 2.40% increase on the 5th; The price of praseodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, with a 2.96% increase on the 5th; The price of praseodymium metal is 875000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 3.86%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 840000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.82%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 695000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.83%.
Recently, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, and there is a strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth market raw materials. Macro news has flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products has tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations. Under the combined effect of insufficient market supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium neodymium has significantly risen. The booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. However, the demand from magnetic material enterprises is not sufficient to support such high metal prices, resulting in poor actual transaction performance.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is not good, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets in the end market is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high oscillation state.
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