According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in January 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market first fell and then rose, fluctuating upwards. On January 1st, the average price was 162000 yuan/ton, and on January 28th, the average price was 163000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.62%.
Supply side: Strengthening the support of mineral resources, industry production is restricted
The tight supply pattern of antimony ore continues, providing bottom support for the price of antimony ingots. According to customs data, the import volume of antimony ore and concentrate in China reached 4775.96 tons in December 2025, continuing to rise from 3637.04 tons in November and returning to over 4000 tons. However, the total import volume for the year is still insufficient, and the overall supply of domestic mineral resources is tight.
The scarcity of global antimony resources is prominent, and the rigid contraction of the supply side is evident. The core mines in Hunan and Guangxi, the main production areas in China, have a long mining history, and the ore grade continues to decline. The cost of beneficiation has increased by more than 50% compared to five years ago, directly pushing up the cost of raw material procurement. Antimony has been included in the list of scarce mineral protection, and some backward production capacity has been cleared through environmental remediation. The industry’s operating rate has been restricted, further tightening the supply elasticity. In terms of overseas production, major producing countries such as Russia and Bolivia have experienced capacity contraction, with slow production of new capacity. The global antimony supply gap continues to widen, and import supply channels are difficult to effectively alleviate domestic tensions.
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Demand side: Emerging fields are making efforts, traditional demand is steadily increasing
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Affected by weak demand, cost linkage, and market sentiment, the domestic antimony oxide market showed a fluctuating downward trend and a stabilizing bottom pattern in January. Affected by the overseas Christmas holiday, the export growth this month fell short of expectations, resulting in insufficient boost to domestic demand. Although the supply side is supported by the cost of concentrate, as the end of the year approaches, traders are actively lowering prices and shipping to recoup funds, exacerbating the pressure on the spot market. Until the end of the year, due to the combined effects of factory closures, traders’ reluctance to sell, and market liquidity contraction, the downward space for prices narrowed, the market stopped falling, and entered a consolidation trend.
Photovoltaics: The demand side is structurally differentiated, with strong support from core consumer sectors but short-term disruptions. Photovoltaic glass, as a key consumer scenario for antimony ingots, operates smoothly in the industry as a whole, with stable daily melting volume and supply and demand patterns, and a slight decline in inventory; There are no new production line changes on the supply side, and the production and supply are stable. The demand side has slightly improved due to the expected adjustment of export policies, and some enterprises have experienced a decline in inventory, but the overall destocking process has been hindered. This is mainly due to the adverse weather in some areas of China affecting logistics transportation, and the slow pace of downstream export competition, resulting in actual consumption of photovoltaic glass not meeting expectations. In the long run, the demand for emerging fields such as sodium batteries and AI servers continues to be released, injecting new impetus into the demand for antimony ingots; In the traditional field, flame retardant materials benefit from the steady growth of global fire safety standard upgrading demand, coupled with the improvement of antimony oxide market atmosphere driving the demand for antimony ingots, as well as the gradual recovery of overseas demand and the growth of global strategic reserve demand, which together constitute the core support for antimony ingot demand.
Outlook for the future: In January, the antimony ingot market experienced a volatile upward trend in the supply-demand game, with the supply side constrained by the shortage of antimony ore resources and low industry operating rates, coupled with continued strengthening of policy control; The emerging fields on the demand side and the stable growth of traditional fields form a synergy, providing strong support for the market. In the short term, the peak stocking season before the Spring Festival is approaching, and downstream enterprises are likely to increase their stocking efforts to lock in costs. Coupled with the current low market inventory and the reluctance of holders to sell at high prices, the antimony ingot market price is expected to receive further support and is likely to maintain a narrow range dynamic trend.
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