Since January 2026, the domestic melamine market has continued the stable pattern of the end of last year, with prices showing typical characteristics of “high price, low volatility”. According to price tracking data, from the end of December 2025 to January 21, 2026, the mainstream market price of industrial grade (premium products) has been operating within a narrow range of 5633-5666 yuan/ton, especially since the daily report of 5633 yuan/ton on January 3, the price has remained at this level for three consecutive weeks, and the market has shown strong stability.
The formation of this steady-state pattern is not driven by a single factor, but rather the result of a balance of domestic costs and supply, overseas imports and exports, and domestic demand.
| Melamine |
1. Cost side:
The primary support for the market this month comes from the upstream and supply sides of the industrial chain. The price of raw material urea remains high. As of January 22, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% compared to the beginning of this month (1725.00 yuan/ton). Providing rigid cost support for melamine significantly squeezed the profit margins of production enterprises, thereby strengthening their willingness to raise prices.
2. Supply side:
In January, many domestic production enterprises arranged for equipment shutdown and maintenance or reduced load operation, resulting in a month on month decrease in the overall operating rate of the industry and a marginal tightening of market spot supply. The combined effect of cost pressure and active supply contraction has firmly supported the bottom of market prices, making the downward space for prices extremely limited.
3. Demand side:
The current market demand is stable. Downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings generally adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement, with market transactions mainly based on small orders for essential needs. Despite the approaching Spring Festival, the large-scale pre holiday stocking wave expected by the market has not yet started significantly, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment still exists. This lukewarm demand trend, coupled with tightened supply, is the main reason why prices have not risen rapidly and instead entered a high-level consolidation.
4. Import and export:
The import and export data for December 2025 provided a neutral to warm external environment for the market in January.
In terms of exports, the export volume in December reached 56900 tons, a slight increase of 2.50% compared to the previous month, and the average export price remained stable at 703.09 US dollars per ton. This indicates that overseas demand remains at a healthy level, providing a stable external digestion channel for domestic production capacity and playing a stabilizing role in preventing market collapse caused by insufficient domestic demand.
In terms of imports, the import volume in December was only 19.73 tons, with almost no substantial impact on domestic supply and demand. However, its average import price increased significantly by 27.69% month on month to 5234.26 US dollars per ton, which psychologically strengthened the domestic market’s recognition of high international costs and indirectly consolidated producers’ confidence in price hikes.
Looking ahead to the market before and after the Spring Festival, the current stable pattern will continue, and whether the balance can be broken depends on the four core variables. If the post holiday parking devices resume production in a concentrated manner and the progress exceeds expectations, the supply pressure will significantly increase; The price of urea directly determines the strength of cost support, while the price of raw materials loosens from high levels, and the bottom support for melamine will also weaken accordingly; We also need to focus on whether downstream stocking and resumption of work and replenishment demand can be released as scheduled before and after the Spring Festival, and whether the efforts are sufficient to digest existing and new supply; Export is an important demand buffer, and the resilience of overseas demand in 2026 needs to be continuously observed. Whether it can continue to absorb domestic excess capacity is crucial for the long-term balance of the market.
In summary, the melamine market in January 2026 is dominated by strong internal factors (cost and supply), and formed a phased balance under the combined effects of stable external demand (exports) and untapped internal demand. All parties in the market are closely monitoring the pre holiday stocking trends to find clear signals for the next stage of price direction selection.
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