1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the 23rd, copper prices were reported at 100920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 34.66%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 6 and risen by 6, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has significantly increased, with 168250 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 17.18% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the struggle for independence of the Federal Reserve and the rebound and strengthening of the US dollar index still bring certain pressure to the metal market, with copper prices under pressure.
Supply side: BHP has raised its copper production guidance, indicating growth potential on the supply side. Copper inventories in the London and Shanghai stock markets continue to rise, with copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reaching a 9-month high, reflecting the low purchasing willingness of physical buyers under high copper prices. However, the joint production restrictions and shutdowns in major mining areas in South America, as well as domestic capacity adjustments due to cost issues, continue to tighten raw material supply.
On the demand side: The demand side presents a dual situation of ice and fire. The transformation of new energy and AI infrastructure are like two torches, driving the growth of copper consumption. Electric vehicles and data centers have a higher demand for copper than traditional fields. With the continuous growth of global sales of new energy vehicles and the acceleration of AI data center construction, the application demand for copper in related fields is constantly increasing, as if it is a hopeful oasis. However, traditional sectors such as real estate investment have experienced a severe decline, like a dry land, dragging down overall demand and causing uneven development on the demand side.
Overall, from the perspective of the global market landscape, the supply of copper is in a tight state. However, domestic industrial buyers have chosen to wait and see due to high copper prices, and the deepening of the off-season has accelerated inventory accumulation, putting downward pressure on rising prices and creating a quiet trading atmosphere in the market. During the period before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to maintain a cautious attitude towards the trend of copper prices, and it is expected that copper will continue to fluctuate mainly within the high range.
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