In September, the domestic polyester staple fiber prices showed a small upward trend. According to the price test of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on September 30 was 7926 yuan/ton, 2.81%% higher than the price of 7710 at the beginning of the month, 7.94% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 7152 (settlement price 7148), down 4.23% from the beginning of the month.

Industrial chain: In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points and repeated outbreaks, which depressed the demand for crude oil and lowered the international crude oil price. By the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures had been 82.15 dollars/barrel, down 8.26% for the whole month. In September, the maintenance and restart of domestic PTA plants coexisted, and the output increased slightly. However, it is still in a tight balance, the pattern of social inventory reduction continues, and the current supply of goods in the spot market is still tight. In September, the domestic PTA spot market rose first and then fell. In September, the overall domestic ethylene glycol started operation at a relatively low rate, and the capacity utilization rate was about 50%. The price of ethylene glycol was low in the early stage, which brought about a slight improvement in the price after the supply contraction this month. However, some devices are planned to restart in the near future, and the supply is expected to recover at a low level. In September, the domestic pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn market continued to be light, and the market price was basically stable. Downstream orders lacked the downward impact of superimposed costs, and prices fell slightly near the end of the month.

Supply and demand: In September, the short fiber unit was overhauled more frequently, and the supply decreased. The downstream has also entered the traditional peak season of the year. The starting load of the yarn mill and textile mill has increased, and the demand has improved month on month. Affected by typhoon weather and epidemic prevention and control this month, the logistics transportation was blocked in the short term, and the supply of goods available for spot circulation was tight. The spot price of staple fiber rose slightly throughout the month, with a trend significantly stronger than that of futures.

Analysts from the business community believe that the recent rise in geopolitical tensions, coupled with hurricane weather, has led to a temporary reduction in crude oil supply in the US Gulf, boosting the rebound in oil prices, and strengthening the cost end support of polyester staple fiber. In October, the textile terminals may gradually turn to the peak season, the operating rate is expected to rise, and the demand may improve. With the restart of the unit after maintenance and the implementation of new capacity, the supply pressure of staple fiber may increase in October. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a strong trend of shock in October. Pay attention to changes in crude oil prices, plant restart and downstream orders.

On October 8, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3462.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.83% compared with that before the National Day. The price of methanol in the upstream was higher, and the cost support was good. The demand in the downstream was fair during the National Day, and the enterprise was optimistic. The quotation was raised during the National Day, and the focus of market negotiation was moved up. However, on the whole, the market supply and demand were deadlocked, and the downstream demand was limited. It was expected that the short-term acetic acid market would wait and see to sort out and operate, and the price would rise slightly. The specific focus was on market transactions.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, during the National Day holiday, the hydrogen peroxide market fell sharply, by nearly 3%. On October 1, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 920 yuan/ton. On October 7, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 893 yuan/ton, down 2.9%.

Weak terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market fell

During the National Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide terminal printing, paper industry and other manufacturers stopped for maintenance, terminal demand turned weak, manufacturers were not confident in pricing, and they lowered the factory price one after another. The hydrogen peroxide market fell, with the mainstream quotation dropping to 890 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 2%.

Hydrogen peroxide analysts from the business community believe that after the festival, terminal demand is not good, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have started up in succession, and the supply is sufficient, and hydrogen peroxide may continue to weaken in the future market.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the price of acetic acid fluctuated in September, falling first and then rising as a whole. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3235.00 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3230.00 yuan/ton. The monthly drop was 0.15%, and the price was 63.91% lower than that of last year.

As of September 29, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions in China in September are as follows:

Region, September 1, September 15, September 29

South China, 3150 yuan/ton, 3100 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton

In North China, 3200 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton

Shandong, 3150 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton

Jiangsu Province, 3250 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton, 3050 yuan/ton

Zhejiang, 3350 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton

In September, acetic acid market was dominated by wide shocks, with prices falling first and then rising. In the first ten days of the year, the acetic acid market was consolidated and operated, with sufficient supply of goods, limited downstream demand, weak market supply and demand, and volatile acetic acid prices; The acetic acid market was weak in the middle and late ten days, mainly because the acetic acid maintenance enterprises resumed normal operation, the market supply was sufficient, downstream purchasing continued to be weak, and the price of acetic acid continued to decline when the supply was weak; As the National Day holiday approaches at the end of the month, the downstream demand for goods to be stocked in the market has increased. Enterprises have a strong interest in price fixing, and the quotation has risen. Following the rise in the upstream methanol price, the raw material support is good. The acetic acid price at the end of the month rose to near the beginning of the month.

The downstream ethyl acetate price was weak in September, and the quotation at the end of the month was 6600-7000 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The raw material acetic acid market was weak and volatile, with limited cost support and weak downstream demand for ethyl acetate. In addition, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable in September, the inventory pressure increased, the market supply and demand performance was insufficient, and the ethyl acetate market was weak.

According to the analysts of the business community, the acetic acid market is the main player at present. The downstream stock preparation before the festival brings good demand, and the enterprise quotation is rising. The upstream methanol rise at the end of the month further supports the rise. However, from the perspective of the demand side, the downstream mostly follows up on demand, with limited procurement. The replenishment before the festival brings short-term benefits. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be consolidated in the future, and the downstream follow-up will be paid more attention.

Overview of ethylene glycol price trend

According to the data of the business society, on September 28, the average price of oil to ethylene glycol P value was 4333.33 yuan/ton, which was 0.76% lower than the average market price on September 26.

At present, the spot market of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang is generally traded, and the market atmosphere is rather empty. The market negotiation price is around 4200 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of ethylene glycol in Northwest China decreased slightly on the 28th, by 50 yuan/ton.

Recently, domestic devices have been intensively overhauled on a large scale, and the supply side remains low.

According to the demand data, the new orders for terminal demand this year are weaker than the same period of previous years, resulting in a weak willingness to prepare weaving materials. The total polyester inventory has rebounded on a month on month basis, and the absolute inventory is at a relatively high level. At present, the profit of various polyester varieties is poor, leading to the increase of production reduction expectation of some polyester enterprises.

Future market forecast

Supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short term, the price of ethylene glycol is mainly weak and stable. In the future, we will wait and see the maintenance sustainability of coal chemical industry and the follow-up of terminal orders.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1363.33 yuan/ton on September 27, an increase of 3.02% over the previous working day, and the market price was up.

The downstream sulfuric acid market rose, the ammonium phosphate market rose steadily, the overall transaction atmosphere improved, the National Day holiday was approaching, the downstream demand increased, the active stock up, and the support for the sulfur market was strengthened. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province shipped smoothly, the quotation was raised, and the port continued to operate on a strong basis. The cargo holders were optimistic about the market, the industry was optimistic, which gave the sulfur market a positive role, and the short-term sulfur market was relatively strong, Pay special attention to the downstream follow-up.

On September 26, the average price of TDI market in East China was 19475.00 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous working day, and the market was on the rise. The factory has limited supply, and the spot market continues to be tight. The sellers are reluctant to sell. The price is high, and the downstream is wait-and-see. Inquiry is just needed, and small orders follow up. The market transaction range is general. At present, the dealers in East China offer prices between 19000-19500 yuan/ton for domestic products, and 19500-19700 yuan/ton for Shanghai products.

At present, the market supplier plays a leading role. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will continue to operate at a high level, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on September 23 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.04% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market from September 11-23 was lower than that in the domestic market, with a small range. On the 11th, the mainstream market quotation was about 15542.86 yuan/ton, while on the 23rd, the main quotation was 15471.43 yuan/ton, a decline of only 0.46%. The water treatment plants in the main domestic production areas have normal production, adequate inventory, stable downstream demand, small changes in the overall quotation, and weak stability.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business society, the acrylonitrile market reported 9830 yuan/ton on September 23, a 2.93% increase compared with the spot market price of 9550 yuan/ton on September 11. Recently, the market situation of acrylonitrile is generally firm, the operating rate is basically stable, and the overall starting rate is 60% to 70%. Since the middle of August, the price of raw propylene has risen in shock, and then it has been operated in an integrated manner. However, the downstream stores are slightly stocking up before the National Day holiday, and the merchants’ offers are firm; According to the analysis, the current cost and demand of acrylonitrile have certain support, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8733.33 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 11.23% from the average price of domestic acrylic acid market of 7833.33 yuan/ton on September 11, up 7.82% from the price on August 23, and down 37.32% year on year in a three-month cycle., It also fell 46.35% compared with the same period last year. At present, the raw propylene market is in consolidation and operation, and the cost support is still available. Some enterprises in the supply side are overhauling, and the operating rate of the acrylic acid market is declining. However, the demand side is flat, the buying is average, and the early inventory is more digested. The market negotiation atmosphere is mild, and the transaction price is large, stable and small; It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average domestic LNG price on September 23 was 6488 yuan/ton, up 9.41% from the average domestic price of 5930 yuan/ton on September 11, of which the highest stage price was 6828 yuan/ton on September 20, forming the largest increase of 15.14% in this stage; However, in recent days, the price center has moved downward. The rise in feed gas prices, pipeline maintenance and pre holiday inventory discharge caused LNG to rise first and then fall. At present, the LNG market is weak and the liquid level pressure is high. As the National Day holiday approaches, the expressway will be restricted, and the liquid plants are willing to reduce prices and discharge stocks. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to fall in the short term.

Future forecast: Since the middle and late September, the general rising trend of the cost of some raw materials for water treatment products in the first ten days has weakened, and the current price remains stable. Polyacrylamide manufacturers in the main production areas in China are operating normally, downstream demand is stable, and inventory is sufficient. Logistics will be affected during the National Day holiday, which may lead to the concentration of orders a few days before the festival. The overall price change should not be large.

The purchase follow-up was insufficient. On the 22nd, the national mainstream phenol market fell back from a high level. Although the current supply side continued to be tight, and some factories were also stocking up before the festival, the market continued to rise significantly, with greater downstream pressure. Department traders sold at a discount, and the actual on-site real order price declined. Recently, the operating rate has increased. Although the number of arrivals in October is limited in the statistics, it is difficult to predict the uncertain factors under the influence of the general environment after the festival. The contract shipment is nearing the end, and the market is mainly adjusted smoothly before the festival.

The offer of phenol in various markets nationwide is as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China., 10650., – 100

Shandong region., 10950., 0

Yanshan surrounding area, 10850, – 50

South China., 10650., – 150

On September 21, the average price of TDI market in East China was 19450 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous working day, and the market was on the rise. According to the factory news, a factory in Shanghai has closed the order due to low inventory, and a large factory in the north has temporarily refused to take orders in the last ten days. The spot market continues to be tense. The seller has a strong attitude of closing the order, and the price is high. The downstream side has a wait-and-see attitude, and a small number of low price purchases follow up. The dominant position of the supplier is obvious. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 19000-19500 yuan/ton for domestic goods, and about 19500-1980 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods.

The short-term TDI market continued to operate at a high level, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.