Cobalt prices fluctuate and consolidate this week
|Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)|
According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of September 22, the cobalt price was 254600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% compared to September 15, when the cobalt price was 252600 yuan/ton; The cobalt price slightly decreased by 0.16% compared to 255000 yuan/ton on September 10th. The growth of ternary battery loading has slowed down, and demand in the cobalt market has rebounded. This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and rebounded, but the growth rate of demand in the cobalt market has slowed down. Recently, cobalt prices have fluctuated and consolidated.
Slow down in the increase of ternary battery loading volume
According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in August, China’s power battery installation volume was 34.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 25.7% and a month on month increase of 8.2%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 10.8GWh, accounting for 31.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month on month increase of 2.3%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 24.1GWh, accounting for 69.0% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 39.7% and a month on month increase of 11.0%. The installation volume of ternary batteries in August increased both month on month, but the growth rate significantly slowed down compared to July. The overall performance of the new energy vehicle market, from July to August, is the traditional off-season for new energy vehicle sales. However, under the situation of “100 city linkage+thousands of towns and counties” and some new energy vehicle companies significantly ceding profits, the overall trend of off-season is not weak. The performance of the new energy vehicle market is better than market expectations. September, as the momentum node at the end of the quarter, the performance of the car market in September will still be expected. However, the sale of profits has overdrawn the demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter ahead of schedule, and the growth rate of demand for new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected. Overall, the demand for cobalt in new energy vehicles has increased, but the growth is not as expected, and future growth expectations are poor. The continuous increase in cobalt prices lacks momentum.
Overview and outlook
According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of new energy vehicles are not weak in the off-season, but the growth rate of ternary battery installation has slowed down. The sales of new energy vehicles in the fourth quarter may not be as expected, and the demand growth in the cobalt market has slowed down, with insufficient support for the rise in cobalt prices. Overall, the cobalt market has stable supply and demand growth, but the growth rate is lower than expected. The support for the rise in cobalt prices is still present but the driving force for sustained growth is insufficient. In the future, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range.