Trade name: PVC

Latest price: 5964.29 yuan/ton

Key points for analysis: The PVC market was fair on November 3, and the market was flexible. The manufacturer mainly keeps the price stable, while the downstream purchases on demand, and is cautious in actual orders. Futures prices rose today, and market confidence improved significantly. At present, the spot market is mainly stable.

Forecast: In the short term, the PVC spot market is relatively strong.

In November, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline in a sluggish manner. The market generally said that the shipment was not smooth. At present, from the perspective of the industrial chain, it is in a downward adjustment, and the chemical industry as a whole is showing a downward trend, which also has a great impact on the market. At present, the East China market has negotiated a decline of 12700 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market lacks good performance and the market is weak.

Offer of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market on November 1:

Region., quotation.,/up and down

East China/12700./- 250

Shandong Province/12700./- 200

Sinopec’s invoicing price in East China has been reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and 5600 yuan/ton. The factory has been reduced intensively. Today’s opening fundamentals are weak, and the intention of shippers to give up profits has increased. In particular, the offer in East China has dropped significantly, with the negotiated price at 5400-5450 yuan/ton. Other mainstream regions have fallen by the same margin. The terminal factory has been slow to follow up, and the inquiry is mainly limited to actual orders. The focus is on the follow-up of terminal procurement tomorrow.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China is as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 5400., – 300

Shandong Province., 5850., – 200

Yanshan District., 5900., 0

South China., 5850., – 50

Trade name: urea

Latest price (October 31): 2506 yuan/ton

On October 31, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, unchanged from October 28, down 18.64% year on year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing block) is about 1780 yuan/ton, the price is high and consolidated, and the cost support is firm. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has a small amount of stock, while industrial demand has increased. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. After a long wait and see, the downstream began to replenish a small amount of storage. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2520 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 55% of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2883 yuan/ton on October 24, and the average price of 55% of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2883 yuan/ton on October 28. The price of monoammonium phosphate market was stable this week.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% of domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3700 yuan/ton on October 24, and the average price of 64% of domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3700 yuan/ton on October 28. The price of diammonium phosphate market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The ammonium phosphate market ran smoothly this week, and the price did not fluctuate temporarily. The price of raw sulfur fell, the cost support weakened, and the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises declined. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is general, and raw materials are mainly purchased on demand. At present, the winter storage market of ammonium phosphate is weak, with limited demand, mainly on the sidelines. As of October 28, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was 2900-3050 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Anhui was 3150 yuan/ton, the quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan was 3100 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 73% monoammonium in Sichuan was 6200 yuan/ton, mainly based on actual negotiation. 64% of diammonium in Hubei Province quoted 3400-3500 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium in Guizhou Province quoted 3500-3700 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium in Yunnan Province quoted 3650-4000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China fell this week. On October 28, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the market was weak. The winter storage market performed generally, the downstream replenishment was not active, and the demand for sulfur was weak. Some sulfur refineries in Shandong were wait-and-see, and the sulfur market was consolidated and operated.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be dominated by stable consolidation this week. The downstream demand of phosphate rock is generally weak, the demand side is generally supported, and the supply side supports the mentality of the industry. Near the end of the month, some mines were shut down, and the supply and demand of the site was relatively calm.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the overall operating rate of ammonium phosphate has declined recently, the raw sulfur has fallen continuously, and the cost side support has weakened. Downstream is cautious to wait and see, and the turnover of new orders in the ammonium phosphate market is limited. It is expected that the ammonium phosphate market will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2808 yuan/ton on October 27, down 1.27% from the previous trading day and 21.18% year on year. On October 27, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was shocked by methanol deadlock. The main contract MA2301 closed at 2536 yuan/ton in late trading, down 28 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the closing of the previous trading day.

The coal price has slightly loosened, the crude oil has fluctuated, the supply side is abundant, the demand side has not improved temporarily, and the methanol market has fallen for two consecutive days. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders.

The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.

Aluminum prices rose slightly on the 26th

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 26 was 18656.67 yuan/ton, up 0.30% daily; The price was 1.63% higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and the recent recovery is up 6.92%. On the whole, it is now in the stage of platform shock after warming up.

Industry data list

1. Output data

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative output of alumina in China from January to September 2022 is 61.471 million tons, up 4.4% year on year; In September, China’s alumina output was 7.052 million tons, up 7.5% year on year.

From January to September, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 29.875 million tons, up 2.8% year on year; Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in September was 3.421 million tons, up 9.3% year on year.

From January to September, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 45.713 million tons, down 0.9% year on year. Among them, the aluminum production in September was 5.432 million tons, up 2.6% year on year.

From January to September, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.062 million tons, up 15.6% year on year. Among them, the aluminum alloy output in September was 1.098 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 24.1%.

2. Import and export data

From January to September 2022, China will import 362000 tons of aluminum ingots, a year-on-year decrease of 67.91%. Among them, China imported 64700 tons of aluminum ingots in September, an increase of 32.01% month on month and a decrease of 32.67% year on year.

From January to September 2022, China exported 192300 tons of aluminum ingots, an increase of 187100 tons year-on-year. Among them, China exported 1900 tons of aluminum ingots in September 2022, a month on month decrease of 68.64%.

3. Inventory data

From the inventory data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main domestic market fell month on month. On the 24th, the mainstream social inventory was about 623000 tons, compared with 667000 tons on the 8th, and more than 40000 tons went to the warehouse, close to 610000 tons before the National Day.

Future market forecast

At present, the supply and demand are relatively stable, and the low inventory has a certain support for the aluminum price. In the short term, it is expected that the trend will still be dominated by sideways shocks.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 25, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate is 6266 yuan/ton, which is 600 yuan/ton lower than that of October 1, 2022 (6866 yuan/ton), an increase of 8.74%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.26), the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate has risen first and then declined, showing a downward trend as a whole. After returning from the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market was active, and the dimethyl carbonate market had a short rise. The driving force behind the rise of dimethyl carbonate market mainly comes from the support from the demand side and the cost side. First of all, the downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate is good after the festival, the inquiry atmosphere is positive, and the demand side provides market support. Secondly, the raw material propylene oxide market was running at a high level, and the cost side was also strong. Therefore, the dimethyl carbonate market rose 4.85% in the three days after the festival.

After the completion of staged replenishment, the market transaction of dimethyl carbonate gradually recovered to calm. On October 12, the market price of dimethyl carbonate began to drop from a high level, and the market focus continued to drop. The decline of dimethyl carbonate market mainly comes from the following two aspects:

First, on the demand side, after the early stage replenishment, in the middle and late October, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate became weak, the demand side gave loose support, the trading atmosphere in the market was light, and the dimethyl carbonate market began to decline.

Second, in terms of cost, in the middle and late October, the market price of raw material propylene oxide fell from a high level, and the cost side gave insufficient support to dimethyl carbonate.

Therefore, under the weak support of both the demand side and the cost side, the market of dimethyl carbonate continued to decline. As of October 26, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 6100-6500 yuan/ton. Compared with the peak of this month, the price decreased by about 700-1000 yuan/ton, with a maximum drop of 12.96% in the month.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, since October (10.1-10.24), the overall domestic propylene oxide market has been running downward. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9733.33 yuan/ton on October 24, a decrease of 3.63% compared with October 1 (10100 yuan/ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the overall trading and investment atmosphere of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is cold, and the downstream is mainly cautious. Most deals are just in need of small orders, and the mentality of the industry is general. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly narrow range adjustment operator, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 24th, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 193633.33 yuan/ton, up 2.53% from the previous trading day and 28.19% year on year.

US stocks soared and the US dollar fell, with Rennie closing down 0.05% the following week. Vale wants to separate copper nickel business, and the demand prospects for copper and nickel are strong. Since electric vehicles, charging stations and other renewable energy infrastructure all need these base metals, new energy and stainless steel will increase the nickel price, and the cost demand of ferronickel will be double supported. However, Indonesia Liqin RKEF4 production line has been put into production, and the supply demand will be double increased. In the case of double increase in supply and demand, it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate widely.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week. The average price of neopentyl glycol in domestic mainstream market this week is 10100.00 yuan/ton. On October 23, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.67, unchanged from yesterday, 53.03% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and 4.46% higher than the lowest point of 46.59 on August 20, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Prices of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers are temporarily stable this week

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 6266.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6766.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 7.98%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in late October was dominated by slight fluctuation. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, with good cost support. The downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.