Cobalt prices are expected to experience a second wave of upward trend

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on June 23 was 249800 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 7.35% compared to the cobalt price of 232700 yuan/ton on June 22. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced an extension of the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months, leading to a significant decrease in supply expectations and a sharp rise in cobalt prices.
Congo decides to extend cobalt product exports for 3 months
On June 21, the board of directors of the Strategic Mineral Market Supervision and Control Authority of the Democratic Republic of Congo took significant regulatory measures. In view of the continued high inventory of cobalt in the market, it has been decided to extend the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months from the effective date of this decision, applicable to all cobalt exports originating from mining in Congo, regardless of whether they come from industrial, semi industrial, small-scale or manual mining.
Congo’s exports are expected to transition from oversupply to shortage
The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo has extended the temporary ban on cobalt exports for another three months, which will make it difficult for China to import cobalt hydrometallurgical intermediates from the country from June to December. The expected reduction of 128000 tons in cobalt raw material exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2025 may shift the global cobalt industry from oversupply to shortage, leading to a decrease in supply in the cobalt market and an increase in the driving force for cobalt price increases.
Overview and Prospect
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo in February led to a significant increase in the price of electrolytic cobalt. However, the domestic cobalt industry has accumulated a large amount of historical inventory, and cobalt manufacturers have been selling at high levels, resulting in a sharp rise in cobalt prices before falling back from high levels. The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has significantly reduced the expected supply in the cobalt market, and increased market expectations for a rise in cobalt prices, leading to upstream reluctance to sell. The cobalt industry may shift from oversupply to supply shortage, and cobalt prices are expected to start a second wave of upward trend.
However, there are still uncertain factors in this upward trend. Firstly, in terms of policies, the implementation of the cobalt export ban policy by the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo may not meet expectations, and the reduction in supply in the cobalt market may not be as expected; Secondly, in terms of supply, the inventory of cobalt industry is still at a high level, the mining output of cobalt ore in Indonesia and other markets has increased, and the supply of cobalt ore in the cobalt market has increased, and the supply of cobalt market may exceed expectations; In terms of final demand, the demand for consumer electronics and ternary power batteries fell short of expectations, and the cobalt market’s upward support was insufficient.
In general, in terms of supply, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo extended the ban on cobalt exports, and the supply of cobalt in the cobalt market decreased. However, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo was hard to predict the implementation of the policy, and the mining output of Indonesia’s cobalt mine increased. In addition, the cobalt industry’s inventory was still high, so the supply of cobalt in the cobalt market was short or not as expected; In terms of demand, the growth in demand for consumer electronics and ternary batteries is slow, and the support for the rising demand in the cobalt market is insufficient. Supply shortage and poor demand are expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices in the future, which will then fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on June 20th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 8620 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as June 13th. Compared with June 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 8780 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall fluctuation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 is not significant, and the market is mainly operating in a consolidated manner. As of June 20th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 8400-8600 yuan/ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The market price of metal silicon 553 # without oxygen is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 in Kunming area is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of supply and output: Currently, the output of silicon metal supply is on the rise. Firstly, some large factories in Xinjiang have increased production and production. Secondly, some facilities in the southwest region have been slightly expanded. Therefore, the overall supply and production of metallic silicon have increased.
In terms of inventory: As of this week, the social inventory of silicon metal in major regions is about 600000 tons, a decrease of about 13000 tons compared to last week.
In terms of construction: Currently, the weekly construction rate in Xinjiang is around 68-70%, and the overall weekly construction rate has increased compared to last week. The weekly operating rate in the northwest region is around 73-75%, which has decreased compared to last week. Some facilities in the region have been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in overall operating rates. The weekly operating rate in Yunnan region is around 15-17%, slightly lower than last week. The weekly operating rate in Sichuan region is around 46-48%, which is basically the same as last week.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream of silicon metal continues to focus on essential procurement, and the overall production situation of downstream industries has generally improved, resulting in a relatively slow increase in overall demand for silicon metal.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the transmission between supply and demand is still acceptable. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester staple fiber has risen significantly recently. As of June 19th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6803 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.51% compared to June 11th.

Affected by geopolitical events, international oil prices have risen. On June 18th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.50 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $76.70 per barrel. Combined with the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States, crude oil inventories have maintained a trend of destocking, providing favorable support for oil prices.
The domestic PTA spot market followed the rise of crude oil, with the average PTA market price in East China at 5246 yuan/ton as of June 19th, an increase of 7.69% from June 11th. In terms of supply, the PTA operating rate rose to 83.6% in June, and the peak of PTA plant maintenance has passed. The new production capacity has been put into trial operation, and the fundamentals have suppressed its increase. The 2.5 million ton annual production facility of Honggang Petrochemical has been successfully put into operation, but with the addition of new production capacity, the pressure of overcapacity has intensified.
After entering June, the seasonal off-season for terminals has arrived, with weak demand and gradually weakening terminals without sustained support. Currently, there is a shortage of domestic and foreign trade orders, with a small number of autumn and winter orders being the main focus. The future orders are uncertain, and the recovery is not as expected.
Business analysts believe that the cost side support is stable, and crude oil prices are firm, but there is an expectation of weakened supply and demand, and it is expected that there is a risk of a surge and a fall in the price of polyester staple fibers.

Recently (6.11~6.18), the butadiene rubber market has slightly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 18, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12040 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.35% from 11650 yuan/ton on June 11. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; Shunding rubber production slightly increased; Downstream semi steel tire construction has slightly increased, while full steel tire construction has slightly decreased, providing support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of June 18th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11850-12200 yuan/ton.

Recently (6.11~6.18), the price of butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 18th, the price of butadiene was 9275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from 9350 yuan/ton on June 11th.
Recently (6.11~6.18), the construction of domestic Shunding facilities has slightly increased to around 6.75%.
Demand side: Recently (6.11~6.18), there has been a slight fluctuation in downstream tire production, which provides strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of June 15th, the construction of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly increased to around 7.8%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased to around 6.10%.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will continue to be supported; Downstream production has fluctuated slightly, with weak supply and demand. Overall, it is expected that the market for butadiene rubber will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

Market situation

This week, the melamine market is indeed facing a dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market.
Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of June 17th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5887.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton).
Low demand: Downstream industries associated with melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have experienced reduced operating loads, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Low raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate steadily with a weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes, and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. This has reduced the production cost of melamine, but has not effectively boosted market demand. As of June 17th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1804.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.65% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).
Inventory backlog: With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies’ inventory begins to accumulate. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales. Future prospects
Adjustment of supply and demand relationship: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

Price trend (6.9-6.17)

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on June 17th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 120008 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.32% and a year-on-year decline of 13.15%. The loosening of policies in the Philippines has intensified expectations of oversupply, while the actual supply bottleneck and cost support in Indonesia have led to pressure and volatility in nickel prices due to a combination of bullish and bearish factors.
Macro level suppression of demand expectations
1. US imposed tariffs: The tariff escalation on steel derived products (household appliances) directly suppresses the demand for stainless steel, and about 70% of nickel’s end consumption comes from the stainless steel field, with obvious negative transmission.
2. Weakness in domestic manufacturing industry: The decline in manufacturing output growth in May reflects weak demand for industrial metals, but retail data exceeded expectations, indicating consumer resilience. Policy stimulus expectations may slow down the decline.
3. The disappearance of geopolitical risk premium: The situation in the Middle East has caused greater disturbance to the crude oil market, and nickel, as an industrial metal, is more concerned with actual supply and demand. The short-term impact of geopolitical factors is limited.
Supply side: long short game
The Philippine Senate Committee has decided to remove the ban on raw ore exports from the final version of the Mining Fiscal System Act, exacerbating expectations of oversupply.
At present, Indonesia has issued a quota of about 300 million wet tons, but due to the mismatch between the actual shipping capacity and production capacity of most mines, as well as the continuous rainy weather in Indonesia, the actual shipping volume is lower than expected.
Cost support: The benchmark price for domestic trade in June (Phase II) is expected to drop by around 0.3-0.5 US dollars. The decline is limited, and high cost mines still have the willingness to raise prices.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 5844 tons to 204936 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 1049 tons to 22241 tons during the cycle. Global inventory growth is significant, and the pattern of oversupply continues.
Demand side: Weakening of dual lines
Stainless steel market: On June 17th, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 12916 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.4%. The production of stainless steel in June decreased by 2.91% month on month, putting pressure on accumulated inventory and sluggish terminal demand.
In the field of new energy, lithium iron phosphate batteries are squeezing the share of ternary batteries, leading to a slowdown in demand growth.
Market forecast: Inventory pressure, poor demand, firm costs, attention to macro and policy information, expected nickel prices to remain range bound.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall price of polyester filament fluctuated and rose today, with some specifications quoted by mainstream polyester factories increasing and discounts decreasing simultaneously; A few factories offer the same price, but there is no room for negotiation. As of June 16th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price range of 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price range of 8200-8550 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price range of 7350-7550 yuan/ton.

Cost end
At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday, Brent crude oil futures rose 5.5% ($74.23/barrel), while WTI rose more than 6%, driving naphtha (CFR Japan $620.5/ton, month on month+10.7%) and PX (CFR China $853.83/ton, month on month+4.34%) to rise simultaneously. PTA saw a slight increase driven by costs, while MEG remained stable and relied on cost side support.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate was 90.12%, slightly increasing by 0.55% month on month, but it is expected to decline slightly this week. Relieve inventory pressure: The factory has 17.9 days of inventory, and due to last week’s promotion, the production and sales rate reached 140%, and some companies have significantly reduced their inventory.
In terms of demand, rigid procurement is the main focus, and weaving has entered the off-season. Water spraying and warp knitting factories consume existing raw materials, resulting in a decrease in procurement efforts and a large number of scattered small single households. In May, the export value of textiles and clothing increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the demand gap in Southeast Asia has formed resilience for filament exports.
Business Society believes that with the strengthening of cost support and the decline in inventory, mainstream factories may tentatively raise prices, resulting in some price increases, but off-season demand will suppress the increase. The weaving operating rate and crude oil trend are the main influencing factors. If the cost side support improves, the price of filament is expected to continue to rise. We need to closely monitor the pace of terminal order recovery and crude oil policy trends in the next 1-2 months.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on June 13th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 8620 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as June 8th. Compared with June 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8780 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.82%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown a consolidation trend. During the week, the spot market for silicon metal remained stable with small movements, with some brands maintaining stable prices and some experiencing slight increases. As of June 13th, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 in East China is around 8400-8600 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is around 8300-8400 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is around 8800-9000 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of demand: Currently, the fundamental situation of the metal silicon spot market has not changed much, with large stability and small fluctuations in the spot market. Some brands have rebounded to some extent, and the overall market sentiment has improved. On the demand side, the overall performance of downstream demand is still cautious, with demand mainly focused on on-demand procurement. The demand for organic silicon market has slightly increased, while the production adjustment of polycrystalline silicon market is not significant. The demand for metallic silicon remains stable compared to the previous period. Aluminum alloy factories purchase on demand, with stable demand performance. Overall, the overall demand for the three major downstream markets of silicon metal has increased narrowly.
On the supply side, as the market gradually enters a period of abundant water, the production of metal silicon supply is slowly increasing, and some facilities in the southern region are resuming production. Combined with the addition of new production capacity, the overall supply side is increasing, and there is some pressure on the supply side in some regions.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the sentiment of inquiries and trading in the metal silicon market has improved, the mentality of industry players has been boosted, and the overall transmission between supply and demand has improved. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly remain stable with a slight increase, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of June 11th, the average price of acetic acid was 2553.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.67 yuan/ton or 5.43% from the price of 2700 yuan/ton on June 1st.

In early June, the acetic acid market weakly declined, and enterprise quotations continued to fall. On the supply side, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity has increased, enterprise inventory has accumulated, and operators have a strong intention to ship; In terms of demand, downstream consumers tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with a small amount of purchases following up on demand. The trading atmosphere in the market is light, and acetic acid holders are experiencing poor shipments, resulting in a continuous decrease in acetic acid prices.
As of June 11th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:
Region /On June 1st /June 11th /Rise and fall
South China region /2550 yuan/ton /2475 yuan/ton / -75
North China region /2540 yuan/ton /2410 yuan/ton / -130
Shandong region /2570 yuan/ton /2430 yuan/ton / -140
Jiangsu region /2490 yuan/ton /2415 yuan/ton / -75
Zhejiang region /2700 yuan/ton /2625 yuan/ton / -75
The upstream methanol market is operating strongly. From June 1st to 11th, the average domestic market price increased from 2250 yuan/ton to 2363 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 5.02%. At the end of last month, methanol prices fell to a low level, and downstream entry enthusiasm increased. Holders of goods were optimistic. At the same time, the methanol market in coastal areas was boosted by policies, and methanol prices rebounded and rose from a low level. However, after the rise, some downstream consumers were resistant, and the basis has fallen slightly.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On June 11th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 43925.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% compared to the price of 4442.50 yuan/ton on June 1st. The upstream acetic acid market continues to decline, with insufficient cost support for acetic anhydride and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is running weakly during the cycle.
Market forecast: According to the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society, the current supply of acetic acid in the market is increasing, and there is greater pressure on suppliers to ship. Downstream demand is limited, and the enthusiasm for purchasing goods is not high. The market supply and demand game is expected, and the short-term acetic acid market is expected to be weak. Specific attention should be paid to changes in equipment and downstream follow-up.

The mainstream transaction price of melamine in this week’s market is at a relatively low level, with weak upward momentum, and even some regions or manufacturers’ quotations still have a bearish trend. As of June 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side:
Downstream industries such as sheet metal, coatings, and molded plastics have been affected by the sluggish real estate market, resulting in insufficient operating rates and continued weak demand for melamine procurement. There is no significant improvement in terminal consumption, which is transmitted to the raw material end. The demand in overseas markets is also flat, with limited new orders, making it difficult to effectively digest domestic supply. International competitive pressure may also exist.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material urea has also been in a downward trend recently. The decline in urea prices has not only reduced the production cost of melamine, but also weakened the cost support for melamine prices, providing space for price decline. As of June 11th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1821.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side:
Although some manufacturers may reduce their load due to losses or maintenance, the overall operating rate of the industry has not experienced a large-scale, long-term decline, and the market supply is relatively stable or even abundant. The supply pressure has not been effectively alleviated. The accumulated social or manufacturer inventory in the early stage still needs time to be digested.
Market performance:
The mentality of buying up rather than buying down dominates, and downstream users and traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude. They are cautious when entering the market for procurement and tend to purchase small orders according to demand, lacking centralized and large-scale replenishment needs. The strong bearish expectation in the market further suppressed trading activity.
Overall, without sudden positive stimuli (such as unexpected shutdowns of major facilities, strong policy incentives, significant increases in export orders, etc.), the melamine market is likely to continue to operate at a low level in the short term, with prices mainly fluctuating weakly and extremely limited upward space. It cannot be ruled out that there may still be slight downturns in certain periods or regions due to shipment pressure.