Silver skyrockets
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market quoted 16320 yuan/kg in the morning session on December 23, 2025, an increase of 21.66% compared to the average silver market price of 13414 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (December 1); The average price of silver market at the beginning of the year (January 1st) was 7450 yuan/kg, an increase of 119.06%.
Multi factor resonance supports the surge of silver prices
The recent surge is the result of multiple factors resonating, including rigid constraints on the supply side, positive expectations on the demand side, and drivers of monetary policy and macro expectations. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Rigid constraints on the supply side:
Mineral supply is limited: about 70% of global silver is associated minerals (copper, gold, lead and zinc, and other main mineral by-products), with weak independent expansion momentum and long cycles. In 2024, mineral silver production reached 820 million ounces, a significant decline from the peak, and there is no hope for new production capacity to be added in 2025.
Supply lag in recycling: The growth of recycled silver cannot keep up with the demand growth rate. The global supply gap has lasted for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 95 million ounces by 2025. Inventory has dropped to a low level that can only cover 1.2 months of consumption.
Strategic hoarding intensifies tension: The United States has included silver in its key mineral list, causing traders to hoard and deliver, pushing up leasing rates and spot premiums. London’s deliverable inventory has dropped to a ten-year low, triggering an emergency “airplane silver” transport.
2. Expectations on the demand side are positive:
Industrial demand accounts for over 60%, with photovoltaics (TOPCon/heterojunction cell silver consumption increase), new energy vehicles, and AI data centers being the core engines. By 2025, photovoltaic silver consumption will account for nearly 40% of total industrial demand.
The surge in investment demand: Silver ETFs continue to experience net inflows (iShares Silver ETF holdings have risen by over 6% in recent months), and the recovery of the gold silver ratio and the bull market in gold have driven funds to shift towards high elasticity silver, forming a buying resonance.
Among them, investment demand is the main driving factor for the rapid rise. The speculative atmosphere is strong.
3. Monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations driving:
Expectations of Fed interest rate cuts are heating up: Non farm and retail sales data weakened in November, the Fed’s interest rate meeting in December was dovish, and the market is betting on continued interest rate cuts in 2026. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in real interest rates will lower the holding cost of interest free silver and enhance its relative attractiveness.
Risk aversion and credit hedging: High global debt, rising currency depreciation risks, geopolitical tensions (such as US Venezuela relations), and concerns about financial stability are driving funds to increase their allocation of silver as a “cheap gold substitute”.
Be cautious and bullish in the short term in the future market
This surge is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as industrial demand, supply and demand patterns, financial policies, and capital inflows. In the future, silver prices may face high volatility and pullback risks in the short term, while in the medium to long term, they are likely to maintain an upward trend due to fundamental support.
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