1、 Trend analysis
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the 19th, copper prices were reported at 92496.67 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the beginning of the week, 25.28% from the beginning of the year, and 25.1% year-on-year.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 4 and an increase of 7 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 164275 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.96% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, after the release of November employment data in the United States, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic, with 64000 new jobs added. Although it exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has driven up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are conducive to stimulating the economy and metal demand.
Supply side: Supply is facing shortage pressure. The joint negotiation group for Chinese copper raw materials has released a signal to reduce mining capacity by 10%, resulting in a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper inventory on the London Metal Exchange. The Deutsche Bank report states that 2025 will be a “severely disrupted year”, with major copper producers lowering their production expectations and expecting a reduction of approximately 300000 tons in copper production by 2026. In addition, the hoarding of copper by the United States is also exacerbating the tense situation of global copper supply. The United States is hoarding copper inventory due to arbitrage opportunities, and the phenomenon of physical copper hoarding is gradually eroding international copper supply, especially the inventory situation on the London Metal Exchange is becoming increasingly tight.
On the demand side: The rapid rise in copper prices has brought enormous cost pressure to downstream manufacturing industries. Air conditioning manufacturing companies are the first to bear the brunt, and recently some companies have announced price increases. In addition, 19 air conditioning companies jointly announced their accession to the self regulatory convention on aluminum reinforcement applications, hoping to resolve cost pressures through “aluminum replacing copper”.
In summary, Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will increase from $10650/ton to $11400/ton in 2026; Citigroup is more aggressive, predicting that copper prices will exceed $13000/ton in early 2026 and may even reach $15000/ton in the second quarter of next year. ING commodity strategist Ava Mante said that the fundamentals of the copper market remain tight, with an expected average copper price of $11500 per ton in 2026, and may reach a peak of nearly $12000 in the second quarter. The market is concerned that a large influx of copper into the United States may preemptively respond to potential import tariffs, which could exacerbate copper shortages in other regions; The slowdown in global economic growth or the escalation of trade frictions may also suppress copper demand, leading to a decline in copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.
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