Since mid March, the domestic PTA market has shown a high volatility trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 3, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6771 yuan/ton, up 2.59% from March 15.

From a cost perspective, PTA prices have always been driven by strong upstream raw materials, which is the core factor supporting its high-level operation. Recently, the international crude oil market has been affected by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with oil prices fluctuating at high levels and the bottom of the cost side continuously rising. On April 2nd, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $111.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the June Brent crude oil futures contract was $109.03 per barrel. At the same time, the Asian PX market is entering a concentrated maintenance season, with supply remaining tight and PX prices remaining firm, further driving up PTA production and processing costs.
Under the pressure of high costs, the processing fees in the PTA industry have been continuously compressed, and the profit margins of some production enterprises have narrowed, forcing large factories to actively reduce their production and burden, forming a two-way support between costs and supply, effectively curbing the space for a significant decline in PTA prices. Top enterprises have successively lowered the operating load of their equipment, with an overall operating rate of around 78% in the industry. The market circulation of goods has tightened, and favorable conditions continue to be released on the supply side.
The downstream polyester industry of PTA has weak terminal orders, and there has been no significant rebound in demand for textile and clothing foreign trade and domestic sales. Polyester factories and weaving enterprises have high finished product inventories, which puts great pressure on capital turnover. Their willingness to purchase high priced PTA is relatively low, mainly for small orders of essential needs. Some polyester factories have even passively reduced production, and their operating load has gradually decreased, resulting in poor transmission of demand for PTA and making it difficult for PTA prices to continue to rise unilaterally.
Business analysts believe that the trend of cost side crude oil and PX remains the dominant factor. If the geopolitical situation continues to be tense and PX supply remains tight, PTA prices will continue to receive strong support. However, the demand for terminal textiles has not yet recovered, and the upward space for prices will be limited. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to maintain a high and wide range oscillation trend in the short term.

price trend
In the past week (April 1 to April 7, 2026), the domestic PA66 market has shown an overall high volatility upward trend, still supported by strong costs in the short term, but weak demand has suppressed further upward space. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the benchmark price of PA66 was reported at 22966.67 yuan/ton, an increase of about 10.06% from 20866.67 yuan/ton on April 1st, showing an accelerated upward trend. This round of upward trend continues the strong pattern since March, driven by the continuous price increase of upstream raw materials.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
Recently, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has continued, with international oil prices fluctuating at high levels. Adipic acid has remained high since late March, and the price of hexamethylenediamine has also continued to rise. The execution price of NVIDIA in April has been raised to 26000 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the year. The domestic quotation has also reached 22000-23000 yuan/ton, and the cost pressure is directly transmitted to PA66. Although geopolitical conflicts have eased recently, the energy premium in the early stage has been deeply embedded in the industrial chain, making it difficult for the short-term cost center to move downwards.
Supply side:
Recently, there has been a decrease in imported goods, resulting in tight spot circulation in the market. Traders are reluctant to sell, and there is a strong tendency to hoard and sell goods. Both manufacturers and traders have low overall inventory levels, leading to tight spot circulation in the market.
In terms of demand:
Recently, the downstream textile industry has had a low acceptance of high prices and has generally adopted a strategy of “small order demand, on-demand procurement”. Large order purchases are rare, and trading activity is insufficient, forming a stalemate pattern of “supply side control and demand suppression”.
Future forecast
In the future, it is expected that the PA66 market will maintain high volatility in the short term, and the price is unlikely to show a significant unilateral trend. Cost support and weak demand form a game, and price trends will highly depend on changes in raw materials and downstream order recovery progress. If there is no significant improvement in terminal demand, high prices or suppression of production will lead to the continuation of the “price but no market” situation.

1、 Market Core Overview

According to data from Shengyi Society, as of April 7, 2026, the benchmark price of melamine was 9650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.39% compared to early April (9425.00 yuan/ton). This week, the price maintained a high horizontal trend and a stable range, with prices remaining unchanged for several consecutive days. The market has entered a high-level game stage after the decline of upward momentum.
From the perspective of price performance during the year, the current price has reached a historical high of nearly a year, with an increase of over 79.9% compared to the low point of 5375 yuan/ton, and a median value of 7512.5 yuan/ton. The current price is at an absolute high level, with a premium of over 28.4% compared to the median value. The market’s “1-year super rise” warning continues to be in effect.
2、 Market Analysis of Business Society Spot Communication System
（1） Location feature analysis
According to the spot trading rules of Business Society, price positions are divided into 5 levels: 1 point for high position, 2 points for medium high position, 3 points for medium high position, 4 points for medium low position, and 5 points for low position.
10 days/20 days/30 days/60 days/90 days/year Position: All are high
10/20/30 day cycle position score total: 1+1+1=3 points, far below the buying threshold (>9 points). Core conclusion: The current price is at an absolute high throughout the cycle, with no buying opportunities, and the risk of chasing high prices is extremely high.
（2） Trend feature analysis
The rule of the Business Society spot moving average: Short term moving average above the long term moving average=upward trend, winding=oscillatory trend, below=downward trend.
Price line (yellow): Continuously running above the 10 day (red), 20 day (green), 30 day (green), and 60 day (purple) moving averages, with a bullish structure not broken
Moving average slope: The short-term moving average (10/20) slopes flat, narrowing the gap between prices and the moving average, and significantly weakening the momentum of unilateral upward movement
Core conclusion: The trend is still bullish, but it has entered the end of the uptrend, with prominent high-level oscillation characteristics and insufficient sustainability of the uptrend.
（3） System buying opportunity determination
According to the dual conditions for buying on Spot Connect:
1. 10/20/30 day position score total>9 points: Currently only 3 points, not met
2. The moving average shows a winding or upward trend: the current trend is upward, meeting the requirements
Final judgment: There is no buying opportunity, and the current position is only suitable for holding and waiting for an increase. It is strictly prohibited to chase high prices and be alert to the risk of falling back from high positions.
3、 Market core driving factors
1. Supply side: The current operating rate of the melamine industry remains at a high level of 68% -70%, but there are sufficient pending orders from enterprises in the early stage, and spot supply is tight. Enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, which is the core support for maintaining high prices.
2. Demand side: The operating rate of downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings is less than 50%, and there is a strong resistance to the current high price of 9650 yuan/ton. Purchasing is mainly for essential needs, and new orders are slowing down, making it difficult for high prices to continue to be transmitted, which is the core pressure restricting further price increases.
3. Cost side: The price of raw material urea remains fluctuating at a high level, but there is insufficient upward momentum, which weakens the marginal cost support for melamine and cannot provide additional impetus for further price increases. As of April 7th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1857.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the beginning of this month (1865.00 yuan/ton).

4. Export side: There is still some support for export orders, but the international market’s acceptance of high prices has decreased, and the export volume has fallen month on month, weakening the driving effect on domestic prices.
4、 Future trend prediction (conclusion from the Business Society Spot Communication system)
Short term (1-2 weeks, mid to late April): Price range: 9500-9800 yuan/ton, supported by pending orders from enterprises, and supported by downstream essential procurement, making it difficult for prices to drop significantly; But downstream high prices resist and transactions slow down, which cannot support further price increases, and the market enters a high-level sideways game. Full cycle high+bullish trend blunted, mainly oscillating, with no opportunity to chase the rise.
Mid term (3-4 weeks, early May): Enterprises’ pending orders are gradually being digested, new orders are not being followed up enough, downstream production continues to decrease, high prices are being resisted, procurement demand is further shrinking, raw material urea prices are weakening, cost support is ineffective, prices have fallen below the 10 day moving average, and the bullish structure is breaking. If the above signals are triggered, prices are likely to fall to the range of 9200-9500 yuan/ton, and a high-level downward trend is established.
Long term (1-2 months): The current price has been at an absolute high for nearly a year, far exceeding the industry average cost and reasonable profit level. With the recovery of supply and weak demand, the price will gradually return to the median value (around 7500 yuan/ton), and the long-term downward trend is the main trend.
In summary, although the melamine market trend is still upward, the price position is in an extremely high-risk area and does not meet the buying timing defined in the “Business Society Spot Market Analysis Method”. The various indicators and alerts provided by the system indicate that the current stage is a risk accumulation phase, rather than a buying opportunity. It is recommended to focus on risk prevention and closely monitor whether there is a top reversal signal in the price.

1. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by Business Society, copper prices fluctuated this week, rising first and then falling. By the 3rd, the price stood at 96,186.67 yuan per ton, up 0.97% from the beginning of the week and 21.6% year-on-year.
According to the weekly price trend chart from Business Society, there have been five increases and seven decreases over the past three months, with copper prices experiencing a slight rise this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 364,450 tons by the end of the week, up 0.51% from the start of the week.
On the macro front, the market is gripped by a “defensive” anxiety. Firstly, the strong rebound of the US dollar index. Influenced by delayed expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and risk-averse sentiment, the dollar index has climbed back above the 100 mark, suppressing the rebound space for dollar-denominated commodities such as metals. Secondly, Trump’s “Tariff 2.0.” The White House recently announced new tariffs on key industrial sectors, maintaining high 50% tariffs on imports like copper and aluminum.
Supply side: The tight supply situation of copper ore persists. Ivanhoe Mines lowered its production forecast, while domestic copper concentrate spot TC (processing fee) dropped below historical lows, continuing to fluctuate in negative territory, indicating that smelters lose money for every ton of copper produced. CSPT abandoned its guidance price for Q2, further confirming the severe shortage of raw materials. Additionally, stricter inspections on “reverse invoicing” and restricted scrap copper supply forced downstream sectors to shift to refined copper, further intensifying supply pressure.
Demand side: Although traditional infrastructure demand remains weak, AI computing power and new energy are taking over the “baton” of copper consumption. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “Stable Growth Work Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry” has entered a critical phase, with emerging sectors such as data centers and new energy vehicles gradually releasing their copper demand. Data shows that the inflection point for domestic inventory drawdown has emerged. Despite macroeconomic sentiment suppressing pre-holiday stockpiling demand, mandatory restocking continues, and the spot market has not seen panic-driven selling.
In summary, geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant factor. Until the navigation issue at the Strait of Hormuz is resolved, market risk aversion is unlikely to subside, and copper prices are expected to maintain a wide fluctuation trend. From a medium to long-term perspective, the tight supply-demand balance in the copper market has not changed. The rigid constraints on mine supply and the sustained growth in new energy demand form the core logic behind copper prices being more prone to rising than falling.
Technical Analysis
Through the market analysis system, the future trend of copper prices can be analyzed from two dimensions:
1. When the 10-day moving average (for copper spot prices) is above the 20-day moving average, the probability of an upward trend is higher. Conversely, the probability is lower. Currently, the 10-day moving average for copper prices is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a relatively low probability of an upward trend. However, the 10-day moving average is approaching the 20-day moving average and may cross above it, so it is advisable to closely monitor the potential crossover point.
2. Current Position. Currently, copper prices are at a medium-high level in the short term and medium-low level in the medium term. The positional advantage is not particularly significant.
Overall, copper prices are currently in a weak trend, and the position is not at an absolute low, making a price increase unlikely. Focus on the crossover turning point of moving averages to identify opportunities.

1、 Market Trend Overview

This week, the melamine market showed the characteristics of high price stability and gradually slowing down transactions. According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine reached 9450.00 yuan/ton on April 2nd, an increase of 0.27% from the beginning of this month, continuing the strong upward trend in the previous period and entering a stage of stabilization. From the price curve, the price of melamine began a rapid upward trend in mid to late March, with a significant increase in just one month. Although it remained high in early April, there were signs of marginal weakness in the transaction end, and downstream resistance to high priced goods gradually emerged.
From the perspective of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current positions of melamine on the 10th, 20th, and 30th are all marked as high, and the moving average system shows a bullish trend with a clear short-term upward trend, but the characteristics of high volatility are highlighted. At the same time, the price on that day has doubled compared to the low point of 5375.00 yuan/ton this year, and the price is in the historical high range. The upward momentum is gradually shifting from “unilateral rise” to “high-level game”.
2、 Slow down driving factors
Demand side:
The current price of melamine has exceeded the 9000 yuan/ton mark, far exceeding the cost tolerance threshold of downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings. As prices continue to rise, the pace of downstream enterprises replenishing inventory has significantly slowed down, shifting from “chasing price increases and stocking up” to “sporadic purchases on demand”. The scale of new orders has shrunk, and market wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, which is the core reason for the slowdown in transactions this week.
Supply side:
In the early stage, the operating rate of the melamine industry remained low, coupled with factors such as equipment maintenance and environmental inspections, the market supply was tight, and manufacturers had a strong willingness to sell at high prices. However, as prices continue to rise, some production enterprises are gradually resuming operations, and pending orders are gradually being delivered, resulting in an increase in spot circulation and a marginal weakening of the supply side’s support for prices.
Cost side:
Although the price of urea, the core raw material of melamine, remains high, the increase this week has narrowed, and the fluctuation of international LNG prices has stabilized. Although the cost transmission chain of “methanol → urea → melamine” is supported, it no longer shows the strong upward trend in the previous period. The cost side’s driving force for melamine has shifted from “strong pull” to “weak support”.
3、 Price trend prediction (based on the Business Society commodity market analysis system)
Based on the current market supply and demand, cost, and transaction situation, predict the subsequent price trend of melamine in three stages:
Short term (1-2 weeks): High volatility, slight rise or stability maintenance
In the short term, there has been no significant easing of geopolitical conflicts, the tight global fertilizer supply pattern has not reversed, and the support on the raw material side is still present; At the same time, production enterprises still have stock of pending orders, and their willingness to raise prices has not completely subsided. It is expected that the price of melamine will fluctuate at a high level in the range of 9400-9800 yuan/ton, and it is not ruled out that there may be a slight upward trend, but it is difficult for there to be a significant increase in trading volume, and the magnitude of the increase is limited.

Mid term (within one month): The risk of high-level decline intensifies, and prices gradually decline
If downstream resistance to high prices continues to ferment and transactions shrink further, coupled with some companies resuming production and increasing supply, the supply-demand contradiction will gradually ease. Meanwhile, if the geopolitical situation eases and international urea and LNG prices fall, the logic of cost support will weaken. At that time, the price of melamine may experience a pullback, with an expected range of 8500-9000 yuan/ton, and the high premium will gradually be absorbed.
Long term (1-3 months): Return to fundamentals, range oscillation operation
In the long run, the pattern of overcapacity in melamine production has not fundamentally changed, and domestic demand is mainly driven by rigid demand. Although exports have increased, it is difficult to make up for the domestic demand gap. The cost side will return to rationality, and the market will break away from the influence of geopolitical risk premiums and return to the fundamentals of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 7500-8500 yuan/ton, showing an overall trend of “high-level decline and stable operation”.
In summary, it is necessary to focus on the trend of raw material urea prices, changes in the operating rate of the melamine industry, the operating rate and transaction data of downstream board industries, and the dynamic geopolitical situation in the Middle East (affecting global fertilizer supply). If the geopolitical conflict continues to escalate and raw material prices rise again, it may lead to melamine prices remaining at a high level beyond expectations; If downstream demand recovers rapidly, transactions rebound, or the pace of price correction is slowed down; If new domestic production capacity is released in a concentrated manner, the pressure of oversupply will become prominent, and the price correction may exceed expectations.

In March 2026, the global cobalt market showed a trend of “high-level solidification and narrow range oscillation”, with domestic spot and overseas futures prices overall maintaining high levels. The core is influenced by multiple factors such as the implementation of quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand structural differentiation, and macro logistics costs. Short term fluctuations have not changed the core logic of tight supply and easy price increases but difficult price decreases in the medium and long term. The specific market situation is as follows:

Cobalt prices fluctuate and fall from high levels in March
According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the cobalt price on April 1st was 426000 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.89% compared to the cobalt price of 438700 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the overall domestic cobalt spot price remained in a high range, showing a trend of “stabilizing at a high level and narrowing volatility”, with obvious seller led characteristics. In March, the domestic spot price of cobalt mainly operated in the range of 429000 to 433000 yuan/ton, with limited fluctuations and no unilateral market trend. At the same time, the ex factory price of domestic cobalt sulfate (20.5%) remained stable at 96000-98000 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the end of February, and the seller’s quotation remained firm; The price of imported cobalt hydroxide (30%) has remained stable at $25.6-26.8 per pound throughout the month, and the fundamentals of extremely tight raw material supply have not loosened.
Overseas markets: narrow fluctuations, prices tend to stabilize
The London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt contract showed a narrow range of fluctuations and overall high-level stabilization in March, with weak trading activity. Throughout March, the fluctuation range of LME cobalt prices slightly increased compared to before, mainly fluctuating around the range of $55840-56290/ton, with minimal daily fluctuations. Most trading days opened and closed at the same price. As of March 28th, LME cobalt futures closed flat at $56290 per ton; On March 30th, LME three-month cobalt remained at a high level without significant fluctuations, with a slight upward trend compared to the beginning of the month. The fluctuation range was controlled within 1%, and there were no obvious unilateral upward or downward driving factors.
Core driving factors of the market trend
Supply side: The long-term tight pattern has not changed, with short-term partial easing
In March, the cobalt supply side showed a characteristic of “long-term rigid tightness and short-term lack of substantial easing”, which was significantly influenced by the policies of major producing countries, geopolitical events, and logistics costs. From a long-term core logic perspective, the global cobalt supply is hard constrained by the export quota of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The export quota for 2026 is only 96600 tons, a decrease of 55% from the actual supply in 2024. It is expected that the local effective supply will only account for less than 40% of the production, resulting in a continued tight supply of cobalt raw materials worldwide. In March, Congo (Kinshasa) introduced new sampling regulations that allow companies to “ship while in dispute” during testing disputes. However, this adjustment is only for technical process optimization and does not change the rigid constraint of the total quota. The market response to this was lukewarm and did not trigger a price correction. On March 31st, the mining regulatory agency of the Democratic Republic of Congo issued new regulations requiring companies to use up their unused export quotas for the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30th. Any unused quotas beyond the deadline will be confiscated and transferred to strategic reserves. At the same time, it is clarified that quotas for the first quarter of 2026 can be extended until June 30th for shipment. This measure aims to stabilize supply, but does not change the tight supply pattern in the short term.

From the perspective of short-term supply in March, some domestic smelting enterprises have slightly released their production capacity, and the arrival of overseas cobalt raw materials has increased to a certain extent. The production rhythm of domestic smelting plants is normal, and the supply of cobalt salt and electrolytic cobalt spot is relatively sufficient. Combined with the gradual release of some inventory in the market, it has temporarily eased the pressure of supply shortage. The core pattern of rigid tightening of global cobalt supply has not changed: the arrival time of intermediate cobalt products at domestic ports has been delayed, social inventories have dropped to historical lows, and can only support consumption for a few weeks. The problem of raw material shortage in smelters has not been fundamentally solved; Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict led to a surge of over 35% in global container freight rates in March, significantly increasing the trade costs of cobalt raw materials and products, further strengthening the cost support of prices. The long-term strategic procurement agreement between Gree and Glencore continues to be fulfilled. In 2026, Glencore will supply 14400 tons of crude cobalt hydroxide raw materials to Gree, which will to some extent stabilize the raw material supply of some domestic smelting enterprises.
Demand side: Overall moderate growth, short-term temporary weakness
Power battery demand: As the top pillar of cobalt demand (accounting for 43%), the growth rate of global new energy vehicle demand will decline in 2026, while the proportion of ternary batteries will decrease significantly. It is expected that the annual demand for cobalt in power batteries will be 124000 tons, an increase of 24% compared to 2024. In March, domestic new energy power battery companies were still in the stage of destocking, and the pace of capacity release for ternary batteries was slow. The demand for cobalt raw materials did not meet expectations, and most of them relied on replenishing inventory as needed, making it difficult to support the upward trend of cobalt prices.
Consumer electronics demand: accounting for 30% of cobalt demand, affected by extended replacement cycles and chip drag, may face overall negative growth in 2026, but AI smartphones AI PC、 The wave of replacement brought by foldable screens and other products is expected to result in a demand for 77000 tons of cobalt for consumer electronics throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 10%. However, the demand in the consumer electronics market remained flat in March, and downstream companies showed a strong wait-and-see attitude towards price cutting, further weakening the purchasing demand for cobalt.
Other demands: Traditional and emerging fields such as energy storage, high-temperature alloys, and hard alloys account for 27% of the demand. It is expected that the demand for cobalt will reach 73000 tons by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 11%. Emerging fields such as humanoid robots and large-scale energy storage power stations are gradually opening up long-term growth space, but there was no concentrated release of this demand in March, which has limited support for the short-term market.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, the core feature of the cobalt market in March 2026 is that “the long-term strong foundation has not changed, and the short-term supply and demand structural differentiation has led to narrow fluctuations”. The price has not experienced a significant correction, mainly due to the rigid constraints of the supply side and the rigid support of logistics costs. The short-term fluctuations are the result of the structural differentiation of supply and demand, macro sentiment, and profit taking.

In the future, the short-term cobalt price is likely to fluctuate and fall within a narrow range, but it is difficult to see a one-sided market trend. The subsequent price trend needs to focus on three core variables: first, the actual implementation efficiency of Congo (Kinshasa) export quotas, especially the implementation of quota usage in the fourth quarter of 2025 before April 30. The possibility of concentrated shipments by enterprises is increasing, and it is expected that the cobalt market will experience short-term supply loosening in April; The second is the progress of downstream demand recovery, as well as the inventory digestion of new energy battery and consumer electronics enterprises; Thirdly, there are geopolitical conflicts and changes in logistics costs. If the Middle East conflict continues to push up shipping costs, it will further strengthen the cost support of prices. Short term supply is expected to concentrate, and the recovery of shipping demand is limited. Coupled with strengthened transportation cost support, cobalt prices are likely to fluctuate slightly and fall back in April.

Zinc price in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the zinc price was 23148 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17% from the zinc price of 24438 yuan/ton on March 1st.
The zinc price in March showed an overall trend of “initial oscillation, mid-term accelerated decline, and later bottoming out and rebounding”, with core fluctuations revolving around supply and demand games and macro emotions. The lowest point appeared on the 19th at 22836 yuan/ton.
Macro factors
In early March, the US dollar index strengthened in stages, exerting some pressure on industrial metals such as zinc priced in US dollars, indirectly leading to difficulty in forming upward momentum in zinc prices and showing a volatile trend. After the middle of the month, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continued to decline. As of the end of March, market expectations gradually became clear, and macro suppressive factors eased, laying the foundation for the later recovery of zinc prices.
Supply and demand side
Supply side: In March, the operating rate of domestic zinc smelting enterprises remained high, coupled with the resumption of production in some mines, the supply of raw materials was relatively sufficient, which to some extent suppressed zinc prices; Meanwhile, although zinc inventory has declined, it is still within a relatively reasonable range and has not formed a pattern of supply shortage.
On the demand side: March is in the traditional “golden three silver four” start-up season, but downstream consumption recovery is not as expected. Demand in traditional zinc consumption areas such as real estate and home appliances is weak, with only a small amount of rigid demand support in the new energy vehicle and infrastructure sectors. The overall demand side has failed to form effective upward momentum, leading to a sustained decline in zinc prices in the medium term; As downstream enterprises gradually resume production in the later stage, the release of essential demand has driven prices to slightly rise.
Inventory side: synchronized decline in domestic and international inventory, supporting later recovery
The inventory side is showing a trend of “continuous depletion”, providing support for zinc prices. The continuous depletion of inventory has eased supply pressure and become one of the core supporting factors for the later bottoming out and rebound of zinc prices.
Future forecast
The zinc price experienced a complete cycle of “oscillation decline rebound” in March, with the core being dominated by supply and demand games and macroeconomic policy expectations; In April, the macro environment tends to stabilize, inventory depletion continues, and demand gradually recovers. Zinc prices are likely to show a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on downstream demand recovery pace, inventory changes, and Federal Reserve policy trends.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in March 2026, the overall domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with a monthly increase. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 168000 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 169000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 0.6% for the whole month.

Supply side:
In the international market, overseas antimony ingot prices fluctuated at a high level in March. Global antimony resources are scarce and there is a significant supply-demand gap. Overseas mining production is weak and supply elasticity is insufficient. At the same time, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is gradually narrowing, and the flow of Southeast Asian antimony raw materials to China is increasing, which to some extent alleviates the shortage of domestic raw materials, but does not change the overall tight situation. The domestic and foreign supply sides jointly provide bottom support for domestic antimony prices.
The overall supply pattern of antimony ingots in China remained tight in March. The environmental supervision in the main production areas continues to be strict, coupled with the stable and limited pace of mining production, the slow pace of raw material replenishment in the smelting process, and the limited space for overall output release in the field. The tight circulation of raw materials combined with the overall low level of inventory in the industry, the shrinking volume of spot circulation in the market, and the cautious shipping mentality of production enterprises, have formed a stable support for the market in terms of overall supply of goods. The temporary tight supply of goods has also driven the prices to rise in stages during the month.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: In March, downstream demand was mainly stable and rigid, with limited capacity to accept high priced antimony ingots, which restricted the upward space of prices. Among them, antimony oxide, as a core deep processing product, has a highly correlated demand performance with the antimony ingot market. As the largest consumer scenario of antimony oxide in the traditional flame retardant field, regular on-demand procurement was maintained in March without centralized replenishment behavior. Due to restrictions on halogenated flame retardants in the European Union and other regions, as well as fluctuations in bromine prices, downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high priced antimony oxide, and procurement is mainly focused on small batch and essential replenishment..
Photovoltaic: Demand steadily increased in March, and antimony oxide was processed into sodium pyroantimonate and used as a clarifying agent in photovoltaic glass production to improve glass transparency and strength. However, the industry’s high inventory and oversupply pressure have not yet eased, and the pace of demand release has slowed down, failing to form a large-scale procurement pull. The demand for lead-acid batteries and other traditional fields remains stable, and the overall downstream purchasing mentality tends to be cautious. The wait-and-see sentiment is heating up, and there is insufficient follow-up on actual transactions. The market’s fear of high prices is gradually emerging.
Market outlook: Taking into account the domestic and international supply and demand patterns, it is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high level of volatility and a stable to strong operation in April. On the supply side, domestic environmental protection and mining control continue, and the tight overseas supply pattern is difficult to change. The shortage of raw materials and the reluctance of enterprises to sell still exist, and low-priced sources are scarce. Merchants have a strong willingness to raise prices. On the demand side, the demand for antimony oxide in the flame retardant field remains stable, and the incremental support in the photovoltaic glass field will continue. However, downstream acceptance of high costs is limited, making it difficult to have explosive growth and limiting the potential for significant price increases. It is expected that the overall trend will continue to be dominated by high-level fluctuations and consolidation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated and fell mainly in March. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 102136.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 95520 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 6.48% and a year-on-year increase of 17.15%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices were higher than futures prices in March, with the main contract being the expected price two months later. It is expected that copper prices will be better in the future.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in March. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 359825 tons, up 39.64% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, geopolitical risks such as the US Iran conflict continue to ferment, and the market is concerned that potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will impact global crude oil supply. High oil prices not only drive up smelting costs (such as sulfuric acid), but also suppress manufacturing demand, exacerbating expectations of a global economic slowdown, thereby suppressing copper consumption prospects.
Supply side: As of late March, the spot processing fee (TC) for imported copper concentrate in China has fallen to a deep negative range of over -60 US dollars per ton. Unlike in the past when there was a shortage of cold materials such as scrap copper and crude copper, which could provide a buffer, the cold material market has also tightened significantly this month. Due to the shortage of raw materials and severe losses in processing fees, coupled with the centralized maintenance period of domestic smelters in April and May, the market generally expects a more than expected decline in refined copper production.
Downstream: After a significant drop in copper prices, downstream purchasing intentions have been significantly released. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rods has rebounded to 72.9%, basically returning to the same period last year. Copper rod enterprises have a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices, resulting in a decrease in finished product inventory. The construction of AI data centers, global power grid upgrades (especially the renovation of old power grids in Europe and America), and energy transformation (wind power, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles) are regarded as the “three major engines” for future copper consumption. Especially the huge consumption of electricity by AI computing power centers is seen as a new variable driving copper demand.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper has risen more than fallen in April.
In summary, the copper market in March is undergoing a deep adjustment driven by macro factors. Although geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve’s policy shift have brought significant short-term selling pressure, the supply and demand relationship at the industrial level has not actually deteriorated. It is expected that copper prices may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downward space is expected to be limited.

Under the multiple game of cost weakening, supply contraction, and weak demand, the PTA market has entered a phase of correction since mid March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77% from March 17th.

On March 23rd, New York time, international crude oil futures collapsed across the board. As of the close, NYMEX May crude oil futures plummeted $10.10, a decrease of 10.28%, with a settlement price of $88.13 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil fell $12.25 in May, a decrease of 10.9%, closing at $99.94 per barrel, falling below the 100 yuan mark; Brent crude oil fell 9.9% in June, to $95.92 per barrel. Stimulated by news from the US, oil prices plummeted by nearly 15% during trading. Subsequently, Iranian officials denied dialogue with the US, resulting in a slight narrowing of the decline. The long short game was at its peak on the market, and PTA cost support weakened.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the PTA industry will be in a capacity vacuum period in 2026, with no new production capacity added. Coupled with the compression of enterprise processing fees, PTA production enterprises will actively reduce their workload for maintenance. Due to severe cost fluctuations, the difference in PTA spot processing has been significantly reduced, resulting in an increase in production cuts and shutdowns of domestic facilities. The current industry operating rate is only 77%, with supply side contraction supporting price increases.
In terms of demand, after PTA prices surged, downstream polyester and weaving enterprises faced a sharp decline in their willingness to purchase high priced raw materials, resulting in sluggish production and sales, and insufficient support for high priced demand. The shortage of overseas orders and the rebound of polyester finished product inventory have further suppressed the recovery of terminal demand, becoming an important driving force for the PTA market downturn.
Business analysts believe that the PTA maintenance plan for the second quarter exceeds 8 million tons, and the logic of supply contraction remains unchanged. In addition, PTA processing fees are still at a low level, and the downward space is limited. However, there are still suppressing factors, and the trend of crude oil and PX prices, as well as the evolution of geopolitical conflicts, directly determine the direction of the cost side. At the same time, the recovery strength of terminal demand is questionable, and the shortage of overseas orders and high inventory of enterprises may continue to affect procurement sentiment. Short term fluctuations in the funding situation may also exacerbate market volatility.