In September, aluminum prices initially strengthened but later weakened. According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 29, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market was 20,700 yuan per ton, up 0.31% from the market average of 20,636.67 yuan per ton on September 1.

Aluminum prices have broken through the 20,000 mark, reaching a relatively high level over the past 1-2 years. The price of raw material alumina has declined from its peak, and the current profit margin per ton of aluminum is at a relatively favorable position.
Recent Fundamental Overview
At the current stage, the aluminum electrolysis market exhibits three key characteristics: “weakening cost support, slight inventory accumulation, and limited pre-holiday demand recovery.” The interplay among cost, supply, demand, and inventory factors collectively drives short-term market trends, as detailed below:
1. Cost Side: Overall Slackness Drags on Aluminum Prices, with Minor Upside for Select Varieties
Alumina: Supply Surplus Dominates Price Decline. The core logic behind the weakening spot price of alumina lies in market oversupply. Spot transaction prices in Shanxi and Henan regions have already dropped below the full cost line, intensifying profit pressure on enterprises. Although seven alumina plants in Guangxi maintain normal production, typhoon weather has disrupted port shipments, causing minor short-term disruptions to localized supply but failing to alter the overall oversupply trend.
Bauxite: Increased Imports Alleviate Raw Material Pressure
Upstream raw material support has improved, with domestic bauxite imports reaching 18.2898 million tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%. The significant rise in imports effectively eased the domestic raw material supply shortage. On the international market, the FOB price of bauxite from Guinea dropped to $74 per dry ton, further reducing import costs and providing some relief to the raw material costs for downstream alumina enterprises.
Prebaked anodes and thermal coal: Local gains struggle to offset overall cost easing. Despite rising prices for both prebaked anodes and thermal coal, the upward momentum remains limited. Recently, thermal coal prices have shown weak gains and failed to counteract the downward trend in key raw materials such as alumina and bauxite. Consequently, the overall production costs of electrolytic aluminum have exhibited a loosening trend, further weakening the supportive effect on aluminum prices.
II. Supply Side: High and Stable Capacity with Continuous Release of Incremental Pressure
Currently, domestic aluminum electrolysis supply remains at a high level, with new projects being implemented in an orderly manner. For example, the 490,000-ton capacity of Qinghai Zhonglv has been completed and put into operation, while there are still 1.06 million tons of capacity reserves awaiting commencement. Future supply growth is expected to be clear-cut.

In terms of production cuts, the short-term reduction scale is limited, with only 400,000 tons of capacity from Qinghai Zhonglv and 25,000 tons from Henan Yuguang being cut. In Yunnan, aluminum electrolysis companies have officially raised electricity prices by 0.12 yuan per kilowatt-hour, resulting in a weekly production cut of 80,000 tons. The resumption process has largely been completed, with 545,000 tons of the originally planned 565,000-ton capacity having resumed production. Overall, supply-side pressure persists.
3. Demand Side: Pre-holiday stockpiling drives localized recovery, but overall performance still falls short of expectations

As the holiday approaches, there is a slight release in downstream market stocking demand, driving demand to recover in some areas: the processing fee for aluminum bars in Guangdong remains stable at 300 yuan/ton, and prices remain firm; The average price of aluminum rods nationwide remains at 275 yuan/ton, and the market transaction pace has accelerated; The procurement enthusiasm in the field of casting aluminum alloys has increased, and the order volume has slightly increased. However, from the perspective of overall demand, the performance has not yet met expectations, especially in the export sector where the drag is significant. In August, the export volume of aluminum plates and strips decreased by 10.49% year-on-year, and the export volume of aluminum foil decreased by 24.33% year-on-year. The weak overseas demand has significantly constrained domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption.
Future forecast
Overall, the current electrolytic aluminum market is dominated by “weakened cost support” and “increased supply release”. Although pre holiday stocking provides temporary support for the demand side, the overall strength is limited. It is expected that aluminum prices will run weakly in the short term, with limited upward potential.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, a major mudslide accident occurred at Grasberg mine, an Indonesian subsidiary of American mining giant Freeport McMoRan, driving up global copper prices significantly. As of September 25th, copper prices were reported at 82435 yuan/ton, an increase of over 2000 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 2.97% and a year-on-year increase of 5.91%.
The shutdown of the world’s second-largest copper mine triggered a ‘black swan’ event
On September 24th, American mining giant Freeport McMoRan (the world’s second-largest copper mine) announced in a statement that its supply contract has entered a state of “force majeure”. And this sudden event was quickly classified by Wall Street as a ‘black swan event’, igniting market concerns about the long-term shortage of copper supply and driving copper prices to soar sharply.
Freeport has confirmed that the mudslide incident at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia on September 8th has resulted in the death of two workers, and five others are still missing. About 800000 metric tons of moist material suddenly poured into the mine, affecting multiple operational levels, which is unprecedented in the company’s decades long mining history.
New York copper surged 4%
Driven by expectations of supply disruptions, COMEX copper futures rose nearly 4% to $4.825 per pound in late Wednesday trading in New York, approaching the top of $5.830 on July 30th and $5.957 on July 24th. The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange surged by 2% at one point to $10172 per ton.
The impact is enormous:
Copper and gold production is expected to plummet by 35% in 2026: The impact of this shutdown is far from short-term. The preliminary assessment released by Freeport shows that the company has lowered its copper and gold sales guidelines for the third quarter, which are 4% and 6% lower than its expectations for July 2025, respectively. At the same time, the company expects that copper and gold production in 2026 may drop by about 35% compared to previous estimates. More importantly, the company expects to return to pre accident production levels as early as 2027, casting a shadow over industries such as copper dependent global electric vehicles and renewable energy.
Future losses could reach up to 2 million tons: Goldman Sachs’ commodities team referred to the shutdown of the Grasberg mine as a ‘black swan event’. James McGeoch, an analyst at the bank, pointed out that the impact of this shutdown is enormous. In the next 12 to 15 months, the market will lose 500000 tons of copper supply as a result, and may further lose 1 to 2 million tons. He described the impact as equivalent to the simultaneous shutdown of the Cobre, Komao, and Los Bronces copper mines.

Long recovery period: According to information disclosed by Freeport, approximately 800000 metric tons of moist material suddenly flowed into Grasberg’s underground mine, an unprecedented scale in the company’s decades long mining history. The accident not only occurred in the “PB1C” production block of the GBC mining area, but also damaged the infrastructure required to support other production areas, including railways, ore chutes, and power systems. Freeport expects that unaffected mining areas will not resume operations until the mid fourth quarter of 2025 at the earliest, while the Grasberg mine will begin phased recovery from the first half of 2026. Freeport expects to restore its pre accident production levels as early as 2027.
fundamentals
Excess refined copper turning into shortage
UBS also predicts that the global supply and demand for refined copper will be 27.853 million tons and 27.586 million tons respectively by 2025, with a slight surplus of 267000 tons. After considering the Grasberg shutdown factor, refined copper will become scarce by 421000 tons in 2026, and the supply gap will gradually widen in the future.
Frequent mining disturbances occur
This year, in addition to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and export policies on copper prices, supply disruptions in the mining sector have also occurred frequently. For example, in February of this year, Chile, the main producer of copper mines, experienced several weeks of strikes and mine shutdowns caused by nationwide power outages. In late May of this year, the Kamoa Kakula copper mine, the fourth largest copper mine in the world, experienced a mining earthquake, which led to a revision of its 2025 production guidance from 520000 to 580000 tons to 370000 to 42000 tons.
Demand side
High copper prices will undoubtedly suppress consumption in some traditional sectors, and downstream enterprises such as home appliances and infrastructure will face enormous cost pressures. However, the rigid demand from the construction of artificial intelligence computing power centers and the new energy sector provides strong support.

LME copper inventory declines
According to the above chart, LME copper inventories have slightly decreased recently. As of the 25th, LME copper inventory was 144425 tons, down 9.1% from the beginning of the month.
Market forecast:
The Indonesian mining accident has led to a decline in supply expectations, and the market is concerned about further deterioration of copper mine supply, which has boosted copper prices significantly. At present, the continuous pre holiday stocking and the rising call for anti internal competition policies in China have provided support for copper prices. Due to the upcoming long holiday, there is an expectation for downstream stocking, but the sharp rise in copper prices has suppressed further stocking intentions. Downstream purchases are only based on orders for immediate needs, and spot premiums continue to be under pressure and decline. The current shortage of copper concentrate is intensifying, coupled with industry policy expectations, and it is expected that there is still room for copper prices to rise.

This week (September 22-26, 2025), downstream demand remained sluggish, and there was no significant improvement in terminal market demand. Downstream factories held onto rigid demand procurement in multiple dimensions, resulting in poor transmission of demand from bottom to top, leading to sustained light shipments from nylon filament manufacturers and increasing inventory pressure; The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the market trend of nylon PA6 chips is weak. The supply in the market is abundant, but the performance of the supply side is average. The price of nylon fiber market is weak and declining.

Nylon filament prices are weak and falling
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of nylon filament fell weakly this week (September 22-26, 2025). As of September 26, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 13880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, a weekly decrease of 3.07%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 11575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 475 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week, a weekly decrease of 3.94%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 14500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the same period last week, with a weekly decline of 2.68%.
Weak and small movements on the raw material side
In terms of cost: This week (September 22-26, 2025), the spot market price of caprolactam weakened and fell. The weekly closing price of Sinopec caprolactam was 9078 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance). The nylon PA6 chip market was mainly weakly consolidated, with stable price trends and weak cost support. As of September 26, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 8726 yuan/ton, mainly due to weak price consolidation, with a weekly decline of 0.78%. During the week, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips remained weak, stable, and slightly fluctuating, with a weekly decline of 0.33%. Cost side support is mainly weak.
Supply and demand: During the week, the operating rate of some nylon filament manufacturers remained stable, and the overall market supply was sufficient. However, the industry’s inventory level continued to increase, and the supply side performance was poor; The demand in the end market is weak, and some downstream manufacturers have reduced production or switched production, resulting in a decrease in demand for nylon filament. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and many parties are following suit with rigid demand. Many industry players are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will remain weak and mainly consolidate at a low level in the short term; In terms of nylon PA6 chips, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 chips in the market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 chips will weakly decline.
Supply and demand: Although September is the traditional peak season, the difference between peak and off peak seasons is no longer clear in recent years, and the trading atmosphere continues to be weak. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for nylon filament market will remain weak next month. However, under the current inventory pressure, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing their production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity, resulting in overall supply pressure remaining relatively high.
Overall, the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and nylon PA6 chip market will continue to operate weakly, with a lack of cost support, high supply pressure, and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. Follow up on demand will be the main focus, with prominent supply-demand contradictions and no positive news. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will continue to be low and stable, with weak price consolidation as the main trend.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market rebounded at a low level at the end of September, and some spot prices of certain brands have increased. As of September 25th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14450 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 1.40% compared to early September.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In the second half of September, domestic PC aggregation enterprises experienced a large and stable increase in load with a small rise. The regular rotation inspection of Wanhua Chemical in the early stage has been completed, and at the same time, the maintenance tasks of Lihua Yiweiyuan and Zhejiang Petrochemical have gradually been completed, resulting in varying degrees of capacity return. The industry load has increased from 79% in the first half of the month to 84%. The average weekly output is close to 70000 tons or more, and there is sufficient supply of goods on site. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. However, in recent days, some aggregation plants have released information on their maintenance arrangements for the fourth quarter, which has led to a significant decrease in future market supply and boosted spot prices. Overall, the current weak reality and strong expectations in the PC supply side have led to a low-level rise in PC support.
In terms of raw materials: Thanks to the digestion of inventory by bisphenol A enterprises and the improvement of the loose supply pattern, bisphenol A significantly rose in the first half of September. With the recovery of supply, the mentality of operators has loosened. After the upstream phenol and acetone both rose and then retreated, the boost to the bisphenol A market narrowed, and multiple factors caused the spot price of bisphenol A to fall at a high level. In addition, there was no significant increase in pre holiday market trading, and the market may continue to experience a pullback in the future, while the support effect on PC costs will weaken.
On the demand side: Currently, PC is in the traditional peak season period, and downstream factories have poor load, with weak inventory levels and no early warehouse construction operations, resulting in a situation of “not prosperous during peak season”. However, in recent times, remote maintenance signals have stimulated the midstream to try a small increase, but the pre holiday market trading activity is still limited, and businesses are often seen selling and withdrawing funds along with the market. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant supply of goods on site, the prices of aggregation plants have remained under pressure and have not increased significantly. Foreign trade orders are also weak, and terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced sources of goods. After the demand for filling vacancies in the future is met, it is expected that the flow of goods in the market will slow down again. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
At the end of September, the domestic PC market rebounded at a low level. The upstream bisphenol A market has fallen at a high level, and the cost value has loosened its support for PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has rebounded, but the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. Stimulated by favorable long-term maintenance, PC spot prices rose at a low level. However, the pre holiday stocking heat is not good, and there is a standoff between long and short positions in the market. It is expected that the PC market may enter a stalemate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the price of 0 # zinc was 21988 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the zinc price of 22212 yuan/ton on September 15th.
This week’s market analysis

In terms of the futures market, the overall trend this week has shown a narrow consolidation and weakness. Compared to last week, its upward support has decreased, and the price trend is gradually turning towards pressure and undergoing adjustments. As of the close on September 19th, the price of the main contract for Shanghai zinc closed at 22040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton compared to last weekend’s 22305 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.19%. In terms of the spot market, the domestic zinc spot market failed to maintain the previous stabilization trend this week, with prices showing a fluctuating downward trend. The overall operating rhythm is more under pressure compared to last week, and market trading sentiment is also more cautious.
Raw material end
In terms of mining, recently affected by the ratio factor, the loss of imported ore smelting has further expanded, and domestic smelters are therefore more inclined to purchase domestic ore. At the same time, the quoted price of imported zinc ore continues to rise, and the increase in import processing fees is also continuing.
Supply and demand side
In the smelting process, some domestic smelters carried out routine maintenance work in September, accompanied by temporary production cuts or shutdowns. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production will decrease in that month.
In terms of consumption, zinc prices have shown a downward trend over the weekend. Downstream enterprises have seized the opportunity of the price decline and actively conducted price based purchases to replenish their raw material inventory. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises still have a demand for pre holiday reserve inventory. According to relevant information, downstream enterprises have reported that the market performance during this year’s peak consumption season is not satisfactory, showing an overall trend of no strong demand during the peak season. The number of terminal orders has not significantly increased, and the demand performance in the domestic market is relatively sluggish.
fundamentals
The supply of refined zinc in China may experience a slight decrease in September. Recently, as the National Day holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have a demand for pre holiday reserve inventory. In addition, the current zinc price is relatively low, which can to some extent stimulate downstream enterprises to purchase at low prices. At the same time, overseas LME zinc inventories in London continue to show a trend of destocking.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, the bottom of zinc prices has solid support, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that zinc prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range.

In late September 2025, the domestic melamine market did not experience the expected “Golden September” trend, but instead continued the weak and bearish pattern of the previous period, with an overall bearish market atmosphere and low trading activity.
Market Overview:

Price level: As of September 23, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5512.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton). The actual transaction price of some factories to ensure shipment can be negotiated, and the price focus is constantly shifting downwards.
Transaction atmosphere: Downstream and traders have extremely poor purchasing enthusiasm, generally holding a wait-and-see attitude of “buying up and not buying down”. New market transactions are mostly sporadic small orders, making it difficult to form effective support. Real time trading in the market is quiet, showing a typical “price but no market” characteristic.
Supply side:
Although there were some short-term shutdowns or maintenance of individual devices during this period, the overall operating rate of melamine enterprises nationwide remained at a relatively high level of 65% to 70%. This means that there is ample supply of spot goods in the market.
Due to the much slower shipping speed than production speed, the inventory level of production enterprises is gradually increasing, and some manufacturers are facing certain inventory pressure. In order to alleviate inventory and financial pressure, manufacturers have had to attract orders by lowering prices or increasing discounts, thereby exacerbating the price decline.
Demand side:
The main consumer areas of melamine are sheet metal, coatings, and molding powder, among which the sheet metal industry is highly correlated with the prosperity of the real estate industry. The current real estate industry is still in a period of adjustment, with limited driving force on new home decoration and furniture consumption, resulting in a sustained low demand for melamine from panel factories.
The economic growth in overseas markets has slowed down, and the import demand for products containing melamine in China (such as laminated boards, tableware, etc.) has not shown significant improvement. The diversion effect of export markets on domestic demand has weakened.
Faced with a continuously declining market, downstream customers generally believe that prices have not yet bottomed out, so their procurement strategies are extremely cautious, mainly focusing on consuming existing inventory and waiting for clearer bottom signals, which makes the demand side even worse.
Cost side:
The urea market is deadlocked: as of September 22, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society is 1670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The urea market, as the main raw material, is also in a state of supply and demand game, with narrow fluctuations in prices. There has been no significant increase to provide strong cost support for melamine, nor has there been a significant improvement in production profits brought about by a sharp decline. This “weakly stable” raw material situation has caused the price of melamine to lose a key support anchor point.
Market mentality: Currently, market participants generally have a pessimistic mentality. Manufacturers lack confidence in the future market and actively focus on shipping; However, intermediaries and downstream factories are mostly bearish on the future market and have a low willingness to operate.
In summary, the “weak continuation” of the melamine market this week is the inevitable result of the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and weak cost factors. The market is undergoing a difficult rebalancing process, and it is necessary to closely monitor the upstream urea price trend and the adjustment of the operating rate of melamine factories in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (9.15-9.19), with an average market price of 17050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17025 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.15%.

Entering the third week, the magnesium market as a whole showed a trend of oscillation before stabilizing: at the beginning of the week, factory quotations showed a moderate increase, but due to insufficient demand follow-up, it became difficult to close deals after the magnesium price was raised; In the middle of the week, driven by the rising prices of coal, ferrosilicon, and dolomite, the willingness of factories to raise prices became stronger, and their quotations were slightly increased accordingly. This week, export demand has decreased, and domestic users are also cautious in their procurement. Therefore, the trading volume of the magnesium market at high prices is relatively low, and the overall operation is maintaining a fluctuating and stable state.
Supply and demand side
In terms of supply, the overall supply of domestic magnesium smelting enterprises has maintained a stable trend without significant fluctuations. With the continuous rise of raw material and energy costs, enterprises are generally facing significant cost pressures. Against this backdrop, magnesium smelting enterprises have shown a strong willingness to raise prices, and market price support has significantly increased.
In terms of demand, the overall procurement volume has shown a significant downward trend compared to last week, and in terms of procurement category structure, the proportion of non national standard raw magnesium procurement has significantly increased, becoming the main component of this week’s procurement.
Raw material end
Recently, coal prices have shown a significant upward trend, and as a downstream product of coal, the price of blue charcoal has also slightly increased accordingly; At the same time, the ferrosilicon market is driven by raw material costs and demand growth, resulting in a significant upward trend in prices. Due to the combined impact of multiple factors, the overall cost of related industries has significantly increased.
comprehensive analysis
This week, the market overall showed a stable trend, with upstream suppliers showing strong intentions to raise prices, while downstream buyers held a cautious attitude, and both sides were in a price game stage. Expected price fluctuations within the range.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 22, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 9700 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton or 2.65% compared to September 14 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9450 yuan/ton), and an increase of 340 yuan/ton or 3.63% compared to September 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9360 yuan/ton).

The metal silicon market has steadily risen this week
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic silicon metal market has shown a strong upward trend in recent days. As of September 22nd, the price of 553 # silicon and 441 # silicon in East China Oxygen Technology Co., Ltd. was 9400-9600 yuan/ton and 9600-9800 yuan/ton, respectively, with a weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. The price of 3303 # silicon was 10400-10600 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of construction, the overall construction of the silicon metal market remains stable
The operating rate of silicon metal in Xinjiang region is around 69%, which has increased compared to the previous week. At the beginning of the month, Xinjiang has plans to continue increasing the number of furnaces, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase. The overall operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region is around 77%, unchanged from the previous week. The overall operating rate of silicon metal in Yunnan region is 65%, which is basically the same as the previous week. The overall operating rate of metallic silicon in Sichuan region is around 52%, slightly lower than the previous week. Some silicon companies have reduced production in the early stage, while most silicon companies have maintained stable operating rates. It is expected that the operating rate in Sichuan will remain stable in the later stage.
Supply side: The current market supply is stable and expected to increase in the later stage
At present, the overall operation of metal silicon equipment is stable, and the overall market supply remains stable. It is expected that some production capacity in Xinjiang will have new plans by the end of September, so it is expected that the overall supply of metal silicon will increase by the end of the month.
On the demand side: The Golden Nine effect is beginning to show, and downstream demand is increasing narrowly
At present, the downstream polycrystalline silicon production is basically stable, while the organic silicon production is stable with small fluctuations, and the overall demand for metallic silicon remains stable. The operating rate of aluminum silicon alloy enterprises has maintained a narrow upward trend, and the traditional “golden nine” effect has initially emerged. Downstream orders have slightly improved, promoting the increase in operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises and boosting the demand for raw materials.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the supply side is expected to increase. The loose supply situation in the market continues, and downstream demand is stable with a narrow rise. The overall supply and demand transmission is still acceptable. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range. In the later stage, it is still necessary to pay more attention to the operating situation of silicon enterprises and the changes in supply and demand.

During the week, the supply in the East China region decreased, while the maintenance facilities in the north gradually resumed. At the same time, some manufacturers increased their external sales, resulting in overall supply saturation. In addition, the demand for spot goods continued to be insufficient, leading to a decline in supplier offers. As of September 19th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8300-8400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is 8250-8350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week.

Supply increase
East China region, supply reduction; In the northern market, supply has increased. Overall, the utilization rate of production capacity has increased, the output has increased, and the overall supply is relatively abundant.
According to statistics, as of September 18th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories reached 72.68%, an increase of 0.78% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output was about 82800 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is around 41000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Limited incremental demand:
This week, the demand for acrylonitrile in major downstream industries has shown an increase, with ABS capacity utilization rate of 69.8%, a decrease of -0.2% compared to last week. However, Yulong has expanded its production capacity by 300000 tons and put a new plant into operation, with a total ABS production capacity base of 10.49 million tons per year; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 66.12%, and the load capacity of Jilin Petrochemical’s acrylic fiber plant has increased from 30% to around 60%; Acrylamide production capacity utilization rate: 56.46%,+0.88% compared to last week.
Continued cost support:
The cost of raw materials for acrylonitrile production has not changed much during the cycle. As of September 18th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6700 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated and fell, and the production loss situation worsened again this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9000 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -0.27%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -589 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of -115 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the supply in the north will increase, while the demand increment is limited, especially with spot buying maintaining a rigid demand state. The market will fall temporarily, but considering cost pressure and future stocking expectations, the market’s downward space in the short term is still limited.

Since September, asphalt prices have been fluctuating downwards due to various factors. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the ex factory price of heavy-duty asphalt # 70 in Shandong region was 3680 yuan/ton on September 1st, and as of the 18th, the ex factory price in Shandong region was 3630 yuan/ton.

Supply pressure still exists in the northern region, with high social inventory and weak market sentiment. Some major refineries are still facing shipment pressure, and low-priced resource transactions are relatively smooth. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy-duty asphalt enterprises was 34.4%, a decrease of 0.5% compared to the previous period. After a small round of decline this week, the market gradually stabilized.
As the National Day holiday approaches, the short-term demand for asphalt has moderately rebounded. This week, 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers shipped a total of 455000 tons of samples, an increase of 14.6% compared to the previous week. The increase is more significant in North and East China regions, where refineries mostly execute pre contract shipments, leading to a significant increase in shipment volume, price reductions, and boosting traders’ purchasing willingness. In addition, smooth shipping and delivery have jointly promoted the increase in shipment volume.
From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the continuous rebound of international crude oil in the past two days and the demand for stocking before the National Day holiday have provided support for spot trading. It is expected that the low-level market may slightly rise, but the high price market still faces pressure to maintain stable operation.