Aluminum prices slightly rebounded in March

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 15, 2024 was 19190 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from the average market price of 18970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.16%.

 

Macro positive aluminum price resonance

 

The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June is strong, and the non-ferrous sector continues to strengthen. As an international product with strong financial attributes, aluminum prices slightly rebounded in March.

 

Fundamentals of supply and demand: Strong supply-demand relationship

 

At present, the domestic aluminum ingot supply is at a historical high level, and the actual production is relatively large. Although the social inventory is lower than expected, it is mainly due to the significant increase in the proportion of aluminum water. There are rumors in the market that Yunnan will partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan is relatively low, as hydropower has not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity has grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption is limited.

 

On the consumer side, downstream work continues to resume, and orders for other sectors except for building profiles are still available. Downstream aluminum rod production continues to rise, while the recovery speed of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates is slightly weak. The domestic meeting in March continues to release positive consumer sentiment.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

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Poor demand and downward trend in melamine market

The melamine market has declined this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67% compared to Monday’s price.

 

Melamine

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on March 13th was 2516.67, a decrease of 0.13% compared to March 1st (2520.00). Since March, the price of raw material urea has fluctuated and fallen narrowly, providing insufficient support for the melamine market.

 

Supply and demand side: Recently, the production capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry has been above 70%, and the industry has started at a high level. However, the demand side has not followed up enough, and the downstream intention to replenish demand is not strong. Many people hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market’s new orders and transactions are average. The phenomenon of enterprises offering discounts and shipping is obvious, and the focus of negotiations in the melamine market is downward.

 

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that there is still a short-term supply-demand contradiction in the market, lacking strong positive factors to support it. With a strong wait-and-see attitude, it is expected that the melamine market will be mainly weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

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The cryolite market remained stable this week (3.8-3.14)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On March 14th, the average market price in Henan region was 7600 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 8th, with a month on month decrease of 0.33%.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

This week, the ice crystal market remained stable and cautious, with stable prices for enterprises being the main focus. Upstream raw material fluorite mines face difficulties in starting production, and spot prices continue to be tight. The overall price is still at a relatively high level in the fluorite industry, and the cost pressure on cryolite continues. Most cryolite manufacturers have offered firm prices, while some companies have lowered prices to promote negotiations on the shipment of cryolite. The overall market is stable. At the same time, downstream parties have a resistance to cryolite prices, and they follow up with more purchases as needed. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the cryolite market is wait-and-see. As of March 14th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8200 yuan/ton.

 

The upstream fluorite market has slightly increased, with an average market price of 3356.25 yuan/ton on March 14th, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 3350.00 yuan/ton on March 8th. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to operate fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. Downstream procurement is mostly followed up on demand, and market trading is limited. The fluorite price market is observing and consolidating.

 

Market forecast: The supply of ice crystal raw materials is tight, the cost of ice crystal is high, and the on-site ice crystal quotation continues to be strong. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm for entering the market is insufficient, and buyers follow up on demand. Manufacturers have limited shipments, and the mentality of operators is not good. It is expected that the ice crystal market will be adjusted downward in the future, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

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Recently, the acetic acid market has shown a strong upward trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has recently risen. On March 13th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3050 yuan/ton on March 7th, an increase of 1.64%, and a decrease of 6.06% compared to the previous month.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Recently, the acetic acid market has been relatively strong and rising. Last weekend, the factory’s shipments were smooth, and the company’s inventory decreased. With the resumption of upstream and downstream operations, there was an increase in restocking in the market. The market trading atmosphere was good, and the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers was raised. However, downstream demand was limited, and the enthusiasm for on-site procurement slowed down, resulting in a stable operation of acetic acid prices.

 

As of March 13th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ March 7th/ March 13th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton/ fifty

North China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ fifty

Jiangsu region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ fifty

Zhejiang region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ fifty

 

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. On March 13th, the average price in the domestic market was 2701.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the price of 2711.67 yuan/ton on March 7th. The maintenance and production reduction of methanol plants are significant, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a favorable supply side. Methanol prices have increased, but downstream main factories have shut down, resulting in insufficient demand support and a decline in methanol prices due to the impact of demand.

 

The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to rise. On March 13th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5512.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price of 5337.50 yuan/ton on March 7th. The price of acetic acid has rebounded, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, and downstream demand is mainly in demand. Under the favorable cost situation, the price of acetic anhydride has risen accordingly.

 

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that although there is an upward trend in the price of acetic acid, the overall market capacity utilization rate is high, and the on-site supply is sufficient. Downstream purchasing is mainly based on demand, with limited on-site trading. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will remain stable and wait-and-see, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

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Balanced market performance, PP market consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in early March, with prices of various wire drawing brands adjusting narrowly. As of March 12th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7707.14 yuan/ton, which has basically fallen back to the price level at the beginning of the month.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Cause analysis

 

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the price effect has been diluted due to the reduction of international crude oil OPEC production and the tense news of Red Sea shipping in the early stage, which has recently loosened support for the high cost of oil to PP production. After the rise of propylene, downstream demand was suppressed and entered a downward trend, with a moderate impact on PP. In terms of PDH, propane continues to fluctuate narrowly and its price remains relatively stable. The methanol market is also relatively stable. The upstream raw materials are generally stable, and the overall support for PP is relatively weak.

 

Overall, the raw material industry is generally average, with slight loosening of support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the average industry load is over 76%, and there has been a recent return of some production lines. At the same time, new production capacity will be implemented and discharged in March, with an expected increase in production. The market supply of goods remains abundant, and the inventory digestion situation last week was still good, but the overall inventory position is still high, with slightly greater pressure on on-site supply. In terms of demand, the basic return of end enterprises has been completed, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding are about 39%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, with no significant improvement. The replenishment operation of enterprises is average, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange is not strong. The overall market for wire drawing materials is mixed, with a dilemma of ups and downs.

 

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7525 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.17% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.34% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen an increase in load, with operating rates increasing by about 2% to 23% compared to the beginning of the month, and operating levels remain at a low level. The digestion speed of end products is sideways, and the demand for non-woven fabrics in the market is mainly based on contracts. The support for fiber material prices is average, and it is expected that the fiber material market will continue to consolidate.

 

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has recovered this week. As of March 12th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 7975 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -0.31%, and there is a decrease of 12.68% compared to the same period last year. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have a low load, resulting in new orders leaning towards loose orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

 

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market remained stable and volatile in early March. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is average, and the support from the cost side for the market is narrow and loose. The resumption of work by terminal enterprises did not meet expectations, and their willingness to stock up was not strong. There is a plan for the return of PP maintenance equipment in the near future, and there are also production facilities. There is an expectation of increased supply in the future. The current resistance to PP consumption is relatively high, and the supply side is under pressure. It is expected that the PP market will enter a weak consolidation period in the short term.

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Agricultural demand is gradually starting, with urea prices in Shandong rising within the week

Recent trends in urea prices

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

Agricultural demand is gradually starting, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2515 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2520 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.20%, and the weekend price decreased by 11.07% year-on-year.

 

From the supply side, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is around 80%, and the daily urea production in China is about 180000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

 

Details of the price of Yangquan anthracite coal this week

Variety/ March 4th/ March 10th/ Changes

Anthracite coal (washed lump)/ 1050 yuan/ton/ 1050 yuan/ton/ None

From the upstream market, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The circulation of liquefied natural gas market was limited, the release of terminal demand was slow, and the trading atmosphere was poor. The price of liquefied natural gas fell by 2.53%, and the weekend price fell by 23.67% year-on-year. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 3.45%, and the weekend price fell by 27.38% year-on-year. However, the price of anthracite remains stable for the time being, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washed lump) at 1050 yuan/ton over the weekend, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

 

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is gradually starting, and industrial demand is following the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on procurement for essential needs. The downstream price of melamine in urea has slightly increased this week, rising from 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7500 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.67%.

 

Looking ahead, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in mid to late March. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream urea market has ups and downs, and the cost support for urea is average. But downstream agricultural demand is gradually starting, with industrial primary demand. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.

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Supply side benefits: Propylene prices rise (3.4-3.8)

1、 Price trend

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose strongly this week (3.4-3.8). The average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6863 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 7054 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%.

 

As of March 8th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

 

Region/ March 8th

Shandong region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6650-6700 yuan/ton

East China region/ 6900-6950 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

 

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the propylene market has shown a significant increase this week. In the early part of the week, due to the shutdown of some upstream devices in the region, supply has tightened, prices have risen, and downstream buyers have entered the market. In the later part of the week, prices rose to a high level, and the atmosphere of downstream entry into the market weakened. In addition, some units released propylene, which eased the tight supply situation and led to a slight decline in propylene prices.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

The propylene analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that currently, the increase in propylene prices will lead to a narrowing of downstream profits, which will suppress propylene demand. It is expected that the focus of propylene prices will shift downward in the short term.

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Shortage of supply and rising market price of ammonium phosphate (3.1-3.7)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3120 yuan/ton on March 1st, and 3136 yuan/ton on March 7th. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 0.53%.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3963 yuan/ton on March 1st. On March 7th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3966 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate increased by 0.08%.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the market for ammonium phosphate has risen, with manufacturers slightly raising their prices. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, leading to increased cost support. At present, the supply of ammonium phosphate is relatively low, and the market supply is tight. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and actual transactions are mainly negotiated. As of March 7th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3050-3100 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3950-4050 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3550-3650 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

 

In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, domestic sulfur prices first rose and then fell, and sulfur plants were operating normally with sufficient market supply. As of March 7th, the reference price for sulfur in East China is around 1020 yuan/ton.

 

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, some mining companies in certain regions in China have raised prices in the mid to high end grade phosphate ore market narrowly, driving the overall focus of negotiations in the phosphate ore market upwards. As of March 7th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

According to analysts from Business Society, the current market situation for ammonium phosphate is generally stable with minor fluctuations. The spring plowing fertilizer season is approaching, and the demand side needs to be released. Recently, with the support of costs and supply side, it is expected that the short-term ammonium phosphate market will remain stable and improve.

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Insufficient upward momentum for white carbon black, weak downward trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5800 yuan/ton. Today, the white carbon black market is mainly weak, with a price drop of 3.33% compared to the previous day, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 6000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are making concessions and taking orders, putting pressure on the operation.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

On March 6th, the price of domestic rubber grade white carbon black showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 3.33% compared to the previous day, a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. The upstream raw materials hydrochloric acid and sulfuric acid showed a stable, moderate, and weak trend, and white carbon black lacked favorable support in terms of cost. Currently, downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. The overall inventory of white carbon black is high, and consumption is slow. Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase according to demand.

 

White carbon black commodity index: On March 6th, the white carbon black commodity index was 130.63, a decrease of 4.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 15.64% from the highest point in the cycle of 154.84 points (2021-12-06), and an increase of 46.10% from the lowest point of 89.41 points on October 7th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

 

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that it is expected that the white carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term, with insufficient momentum for price increases.

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Insufficient cost support, weak DOTP prices in February

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOTP

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 5th, the price of DOTP was 11850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to February 29th when the price of DOTP was 11900 yuan/ton; Compared to February 16th, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.63% at 11925 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.63% to 11925 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating, with insufficient cost support; After the holiday, plasticizer manufacturers resumed production, and the supply of DOTP increased. Downstream production resumed slowly, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover well. In February, DOTP prices weakened and stabilized.

 

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to the quotation of 12350 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 12375 yuan/ton has increased by 0.51%; On March 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from February 29th and 0.30% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, but after the holiday, it slowly recovered. The supply of isooctanol increased, but the demand for isooctanol did not recover well. In February, the price of isooctanol weakened and stabilized, while after the holiday, the raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, increasing cost support. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride first rises and then falls

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 16th, and an increase of 0.82% compared to the price of 7625 yuan/ton on February 1st; On March 5th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7587.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from February 29th and 0.49% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, some facilities continued to shut down, and after the holiday, the domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride was around 60%. During the Spring Festival, inventory consumption on site was fast, and prices of phthalic anhydride manufacturers increased. With the resumption of production by phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, and demand was poor. As a result, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in March.

 

PVC prices fluctuate and rise

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the PVC quotation was 5629 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the PVC quotation of 5596 yuan/ton on February 29th; Compared to February 17th, the price of PVC increased by 1.13% to 5566 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of PVC increased by 0.99% to 5574 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, PVC demand was weak, PVC prices fluctuated and fell, downstream rigid demand procurement, downstream manufacturers began to work after the holiday, PVC prices fluctuated and rose after the holiday, and demand for plasticizers slowly rebounded.

 

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol is weak and consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOTP is insufficient; After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded slowly, with insufficient demand for plasticizers and poor support for the increase in plasticizers. In the future, the cost support for plasticizers is insufficient, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. It is expected that DOTP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

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