According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 2nd, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42% compared to March 21st (the reference price of melamine was 7350.00 yuan).

The recent decline in the melamine market is mainly due to poor demand and insufficient cost support. Some companies are offering discounts and accepting orders, leading to a decline in the focus of negotiations in the melamine market. On April 2nd, the mainstream ex factory price reference for melamine in the East China market was around 6500-6650 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Cost side: Supply exceeds demand, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong slightly decreased in March. Entering April, the market continued its downward trend. According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on April 2nd was 2393.33, a decrease of 0.9% compared to April 1st (2415.00), which provides weak support for the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some devices have been shut down, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased. However, the supply side is still sufficient, and domestic downstream demand is flat. The main focus is on following up on rigid demand, with a cautious purchasing attitude. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and enterprise shipments are under pressure. The support for supply and demand side is weak.

The current melamine market is operating weakly, and the short-term supply-demand contradiction in the market may continue. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term. The specific trend still needs to pay attention to market news guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 3966 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate was 4066 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that from January to March 2024, the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China showed a V-shaped trend of first falling and then rebounding. The market price began to decline from early January until the end of February. Starting from March, the dimethyl carbonate market welcomed some positive news, and the market began to rebound. With the gradual release of demand, the overall market finally continued to recover.

Market analysis of dimethyl carbonate

Negative pressure on January’s weak decline in dimethyl carbonate

In January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a weak and declining trend. The trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on site is light. After the increase in operating load of dimethyl carbonate in Zhejiang region, the overall supply on site has increased. However, the downstream demand has generally boosted, and the downstream market mainly maintains rigid demand orders. Spot purchases are cautious, and the market is mostly empty. Under the pressure of bearish sentiment, the focus of the dimethyl carbonate market continues to decline, with a 4.10% decline in January.

The supply-demand game does not decrease. In February, dimethyl carbonate continued to decline deeply

In February, the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate in the domestic market was sufficient. During the Spring Festival holiday, many factories of dimethyl carbonate maintained normal or slightly reduced operations, while the overall operation of dimethyl carbonate remained unchanged, with an operating rate of around 4 floors. After the end of the holiday, there is a certain accumulation of inventory in the dimethyl carbonate market, and the overall inventory level of factories has increased. After the holiday, the dimethyl carbonate factories mainly discharge inventory, but the recovery of the demand side needs to be gradually released. Therefore, the game between supply and demand in the dimethyl carbonate market did not decrease in February, and the market situation continued to decline deeply. In February, dimethyl carbonate decreased by 1.71%.

The demand side supports the recovery of the dimethyl carbonate market in March

With the arrival of “Golden Three Silver Four”, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market finally saw a recovery in March. The overall demand for downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate, including electrolyte and solvent directions, has improved to some extent. The scheduling and shipment rhythm of the dimethyl carbonate factory is still good, and the overall supply pressure of the factory has been relieved. The overall supply and demand transmission of dimethyl carbonate has been improved, coupled with some factories undergoing shutdown and maintenance. The buying sentiment in the dimethyl carbonate market is still positive, and the overall focus of market negotiations is gradually moving upwards. In March, dimethyl carbonate increased by 3.48%.

In terms of demand: Currently, there are many downstream industries of dimethyl carbonate in China. From the perspective of the downstream consumption structure of the industry, products with a large consumption of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate include electrolyte solvents, polycarbonate, coatings, adhesives, developer, etc. Currently, electrolyte solvents are the main downstream of dimethyl carbonate, accounting for 40%. Next is polycarbonate, accounting for 27%, while coatings, adhesives, and developers account for 8% and 4%, respectively. Other industries account for 5.9%.

1、 In February, downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was mainly reflected in the electrolyte and traditional industries such as coatings and adhesives. The overall demand for the electrolyte industry recovered less than expected, and the demand for coatings was also in the off-season of the industry.

In March, the demand for electrolytes and traditional solvent coatings has improved, and polycarbonate factories are also operating normally at basic load. The capacity utilization rate is still acceptable, and the demand for industrial grade DMC in traditional industries is expected to increase slightly. Overall, the demand is expected to improve.

In terms of supply, there was not much adjustment in the domestic production capacity of dimethyl carbonate in January. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday in February, there was no significant shutdown plan for the dimethyl carbonate market as a whole, and the market maintained a stable operating rate in the early stage. 1、 In February, the dimethyl carbonate factory mainly focused on shipping, and there was some supply pressure in the market.

In March, with the continuous release of demand, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was reduced, and the market supply and demand pattern gradually changed.

In terms of production capacity: In 2023, the overall production capacity of the dimethyl carbonate market has significantly increased. In 2023, the production capacity of dimethyl carbonate was about 2.5 million tons, but the production accounted for only half of the production capacity, about 1.23 million tons. The imbalance in the supply and demand pattern of dimethyl carbonate has begun to emerge. In 2024, there is still a significant demand gap in the overall dimethyl carbonate market, and overcapacity still exists. Therefore, the transmission and coordination of supply and demand still dominate.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on site is mild. With the arrival of spring, the downstream traditional coating industry of dimethyl carbonate will also usher in a peak season.

From the perspective of downstream electrolyte and solvent industries, with the support of policies in the new energy industry, there is still a trend of increasing production capacity in the future. In the long run, the increase in demand for electrolyte is also transmitted to diethyl carbonate, and there is a certain increase. Although the overall market is currently showing an overcapacity pattern, in terms of future demand for dimethyl carbonate, the direction of electrolyte development is still the main direction.

The data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate will mainly operate steadily and positively. In the long run, the gap on the demand side cannot be ignored, and there are still huge challenges in the future market.

Recently, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has remained stable. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 72000 to 73000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of lithium carbonate in the market has fallen and the market is relatively stable. As of April 2nd, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate for Shengyishe is 107000.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

Business Society’s lithium hexafluorophosphate data analyst predicts that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will remain stable in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8401.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.31% from 8211.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

The market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8291.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.25% from 8109.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.

Product: The price of ground refined naphtha continued to rise in March. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 8300 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil in March supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for an increase; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious.

Upstream: The crude oil market rose first and then fell in March, with a relatively stable performance in the first ten days. As of March 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly, with a daily increase of nearly 3%. The main reason is that the US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. In the latter half of the year, the crude oil market experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar combined with an increase in US crude oil inventories.

Downstream: The toluene market rose in March. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene. The mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. In February, the price trend of xylene increased, and the domestic xylene market had sufficient spot supply. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%.

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the high international crude oil market is supported by the cost of the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China remained stable this week, with a main price of around 13440 yuan/ton as of the 31st. The prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, the fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has risen this week. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9600 to 10000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, with costs supporting acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production is at a low level, with industry equipment load around 56%, maintaining only essential support for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production has steadily increased slightly, with a slight increase in the supply of acrylonitrile.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has been on the rise this week. As of March 31st, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in the East China region is 6500.00 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has risen, cost pressure has increased, and some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance. The industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the quotes from major factories have increased, supporting the market’s price push mentality. Low priced goods on the market have decreased, and downstream inquiries are still promising. Buying continues with a strong demand for follow-up, and actual market transactions are average. As the end of the month approaches, some devices undergo maintenance and there is a shortage of spot supply, resulting in a favorable market trend on the supply side.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has fallen this week. The market is dominated by oversupply, coupled with the downward trend in raw gas prices, leading to a weakening of the liquefied natural gas market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, the fuel market has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. On the supply side, the production of enterprises in the main production area was normal this week; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (March 27th): 9575.00/ton

On March 27th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped significantly, with a price drop of 625 yuan/ton compared to March 26th, a decrease of 6.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.14%. Upstream propylene prices have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream plasticizer market has experienced a significant decline, and downstream demand has weakened. Manufacturers are operating at a high level, lowering prices to attract orders.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with an average market price of around 9300 yuan/ton.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 26, 2024 was 19460 yuan/ton, an increase of 490 yuan/ton compared to the average market price of 18970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.58%.

Electrolytic aluminum fundamentals:

On the supply side, the production of electrolytic aluminum in March was higher than the same period last year. Currently, Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions have good profits and high operating rates. Yunnan region is expected to resume production of 520000 tons by mid April due to the easing of power supply shortages. In addition, Guizhou Anshun Aluminum Industry’s production capacity of 130000 tons, which has been suspended due to technological upgrades, may resume production by the end of March. In terms of production reduction, a certain aluminum plant in Sichuan started to shut down for technical renovation from March 10th until September, which may affect the operation and construction of 125000 tons of production capacity. Overall, there is an expectation of an increase in domestic supply.

Inventory: As of March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 913000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 98000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th.

On the demand side: As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, the demand for downstream aluminum industries is gradually recovering; The production capacity operating rate of leading enterprises in the downstream aluminum industry has increased compared to the previous month, with a significant increase in the production capacity operating rate of aluminum profiles, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys; The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, and aluminum foil are relatively stable. Recently, the outbound volume of aluminum rods from mainstream consumer areas in China has increased month on month, while the inventory of aluminum rods in various regions of China has decreased.

Cost side: On the raw material side, the production of alumina is higher than the same period last year, and the supply is relatively loose. Although the price of domestic bauxite is high, the market is highly dependent on imported ore. Guinea’s imports are smooth, and the price of alumina is relatively weak compared to electrolytic aluminum, resulting in stronger profits for aluminum plants.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic aluminum ingot supply is at a historical high level, with relatively large actual production. Social inventory is beginning to accumulate, and the absolute value is lower than the same period, mainly due to a significant increase in the proportion of aluminum water. There are rumors in the market that Yunnan will partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan is relatively low, as hydropower has not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity has grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption is limited. Supply changes, observe the situation during the rainy season.

On the consumer side, as the traditional peak season approaches, downstream demand may improve. The production capacity of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foil, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys is gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the market will observe changes in the supply situation during the rainy season in May.

The price of plasticizers dropped significantly in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the price of DOP was 10370 yuan/ton, a significant decrease from March 1′s DOP price of 11780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.97%; On March 22nd, the price of DOTP was 10475 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 11.79% compared to the price of DOTP on March 1st, which was 11875 yuan/ton; On March 22nd, the DBP price was 9212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.16% compared to the DBP price of 9612.50 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the prices of plasticizers DOP and DOTP decreased significantly, while the prices of DBP decreased slightly; The price of high priced plasticizers has significantly decreased, while the price of low priced plasticizers has slightly decreased, and the price difference of plasticizers has weakened.

During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer manufacturers decreased significantly, dropping to around 50%. However, with the end of the holiday, the production of plasticizer manufacturers quickly recovered to around 70%. In March, the production of plasticizer enterprises reached a high level, and the supply of plasticizers was sufficient; Domestic PVC manufacturers are operating at a high level, with poor downstream demand support for PVC. The PVC market has high inventory levels, and PVC is expected to continue to enter the market. In March, the PVC market supported the demand for plasticizers, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, the demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. Adequate supply and poor demand have led to a significant decrease in plasticizer profits.

The price of isooctanol dropped significantly in March

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the price of isooctanol was 11225 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 9.66% compared to the price of isooctanol on March 1, which was 12425 yuan/ton. In March, the price of isooctanol fell unilaterally, and in March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation. The supply of isooctanol increased, and imported isooctanol arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the pressure on the supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the increase in exports of isooctanol provides certain positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the isooctanol market may remain weak. With the slow decline of inventory in the isooctanol market, the expected decline in the future isooctanol market is expected to slow down.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in March

According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of March 22, the price of n-butanol was 7733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.75% from the price of n-butanol on March 1, which was 8383.33 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the overall downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. With the gradual return of downstream production of n-butanol, downstream stocking has increased, and the demand for n-butanol has rebounded. However, n-butanol inventory has remained high, coupled with the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February, the n-butanol market is still oversupplied. With the continuous decline in the price of n-butanol, downstream customers have increased their willingness to stock on dips, and the trading volume of low-priced n-butanol has increased. At present, n-butanol manufacturers have a strong willingness to reduce inventory at low prices, and it is expected that n-butanol prices will operate weakly in the future.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise in an N-shaped pattern

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the PVC quotation was 5654 yuan/ton, a slight fluctuation and increase of 0.82% compared to the PVC price of 5608 yuan/ton on March 1; The price of PVC has increased significantly by 1.58% compared to March 15th, with a price of 5566 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, domestic PVC social inventory is high, PVC downstream production is low, order continuity is not strong, PVC manufacturers have a lot of inventory waiting to be stored, and PVC inventory continues to maintain high levels. In terms of operating rate, PVC manufacturers have a high operating rate, and spring maintenance has not yet started. Some enterprises are not actively engaged in maintenance, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, the increase in domestic demand is limited, and PVC exports are exchanged for quantity at price. The overall demand for PVC in the market is weak, and inventory removal is slow. High priced PVC sources are still difficult to trade. In March, there is still support for PVC’s demand for plasticizers, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, PVC manufacturers have lower expectations of starting production, leading to a decrease in PVC’s demand for plasticizers. The downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future is increasing.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of n-butanol has significantly decreased, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased. Subsequently, the expected decline in prices of isooctanol and n-butanol in the market has slowed down; In terms of supply, plasticizer manufacturers maintained a high level of production in March, with sufficient supply of plasticizers. With a significant drop in plasticizer prices, which is far greater than the decline in raw material products, plasticizer profits have decreased, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer manufacturers to start production has decreased. The expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers in the future will decrease; In terms of demand, PVC has strong support for plasticizers in March, with PVC manufacturers operating at a high level and PVC social inventory at a high level. However, PVC demand growth is limited, and PVC inventory accumulation is severe; In April, PVC manufacturers had limited support for the demand for plasticizers. In addition, as April entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, PVC manufacturers had increased expectations for maintenance, resulting in weak demand for plasticizers in the PVC market in the future.

In the future, the cost decline of plasticizers has slowed down, and supply and demand expectations have both decreased. However, plasticizer manufacturers are slow to destock, and the situation of plasticizer oversupply is difficult to change. Downstream customers have a strong resistance to high priced plasticizers, and it is expected that high priced plasticizer prices will fluctuate and fall in the future, while low priced plasticizer prices will mainly stabilize.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to March 15 (the reference price of melamine was 7375.00 yuan).

During this period (3.15-3.21), the melamine market continued to decline, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market still existed. Small transactions were mainly in demand, and some companies were under pressure to ship, resulting in price reductions. On March 21, the mainstream ex factory price reference for melamine in East China was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price for urea on March 20th was 2501.67, a decrease of 0.73% compared to March 1st (2520.00). Recently, the urea market in Shandong has slightly declined, providing moderate support for the melamine market. Short term cost side support may still be limited.

Supply and demand side: Some companies on the supply side are experiencing fluctuations in their equipment, and the industry is still operating at a high level of around 70%. The market supply is sufficient, but the demand side is following slowly. The downstream board market is mainly affected by the real estate industry, and the demand for melamine in the market is average. The demand side is generally weak, and companies are willing to offer more profits and take orders. The downstream procurement mentality is still cautious, and in the short term, the market supply is strong and the demand is weak, which may continue.

In summary, there is still insufficient short-term market support, but in the early stage, the price of melamine has continued to weaken, and companies have weak intentions to sell low. Downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may remain stagnant and wait-and-see. The specific trend still needs to pay attention to market news guidance.

The price of ethylene oxide slightly increased in mid March. According to data from Business Society, as of March 21st, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6700-6900 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6800 yuan/ton.

At present, the domestic production of ethylene oxide has started relatively steadily, and there are expectations of tight supply in some regions. In the short term, there are some maintenance plans for individual units that need to be fulfilled.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The prices of downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomers have rebounded, and the prices of related products such as ethylene glycol have started to loosen recently. Overall, the demand for downstream monomers is average, while the demand for polyethers, esters, and other materials for purchasing ethylene oxide is good.

Future market forecast

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide may have positive expectations with the start of terminal real estate construction. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. However, overall, the downstream infrastructure industry is cautious about high priced monomers, and it is expected that the upward space is relatively limited, which may suppress the upward trend of raw material ethylene oxide. In the short term, it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will continue to fluctuate strongly.