Affected by negative costs and weak downstream demand, the price of polyester filament market fell this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 18th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6300-6600 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, the crude oil market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long run. The supply-demand balance will be disrupted, and in the process of rebalancing, crude oil prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. As of April 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.47 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.85 per barrel. Since April, the domestic PTA spot market has shown significant weakness, with an average market price of 4318 yuan/ton in East China as of April 17th, a decrease of 12.04% from the beginning of the month.
On the demand side, the production and sales rate of polyester filament market remained low this week, and the supply-demand contradiction intensified. Downstream users have a high demand for replenishment, with few actual transactions and continuous accumulation of inventory. The factory has a strong desire to reduce inventory. The utilization rate of polyester filament production capacity remains at a high level of 94%, but the downstream weaving operation rate is low, and the raw material stocking days have dropped to 10.8 days, resulting in a low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 68% -70%, a decrease of 2-3 percentage points compared to the previous period. The inventory of raw fabrics has increased to 24.14 days, and the printing and dyeing start-up rate has dropped to 64.38%. The lack of new orders has led to a low purchasing willingness. In terms of exports, the US policy of imposing tariffs (such as the 301 investigation on textile categories) has led to a decrease in export orders, resulting in a 5.2% year-on-year decline in textile exports in April.
Overall, the polyester filament market is under triple pressure of declining costs, weak demand, and high inventory, resulting in a weak price decline. In the short term, the market lacks favorable drivers, and prices may continue to be weak. In the future, we need to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and the differentiation strategy of enterprises. In the short term, there is limited room for price rebound, and Business Society believes that the polyester filament market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market has shown significant weakness since April. As of April 17th, the average market price in East China was 4318 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.04% from the beginning of the month.

The crude oil market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and based on the subsequent impact of current US tariff policies, crude oil may enter a new cycle in the long run. The supply-demand balance will be disrupted, and in the process of rebalancing, crude oil prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. As of April 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.47 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.85 per barrel.
During the maintenance of PX facilities both domestically and internationally, the domestic PX load has decreased to 73%. In the maintenance of Yangzi, Jiujiang, and Zhejiang Petrochemicals, Hainan Refinery and Pengzhou Petrochemicals have reduced their load and improved their supply. However, under the tariff war, costs and demand are greatly affected, and the overall situation is relatively weak.
PTA is undergoing planned maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate is currently around 75%. Hengli Petrochemical plans to inspect the Huizhou 2 # 2.5 million ton PTA plant on April 28th and the Dalian 2 # 2.2 million ton PTA plant around May 10th, simultaneously reducing the contracted supply for May.
Downstream demand performance is weak, polyester load remains stable at 90% peak season level, demand uncertainty is high under the tariff war, inventory pressure is high, and cash flow surges and falls. The expectation of terminal demand is pessimistic, and there is no sign of improvement in the weaving market. There is insufficient follow-up on new orders, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
Business analysts believe that PTA itself has limited short-term room for improvement as its supply decreases with the implementation of maintenance. However, the tariff policy continues to suppress the export of terminal textiles, leading to a pessimistic attitude towards terminal demand and concerns about a decrease in the operating rate of terminal looms, as well as a high probability of a decrease in the negative impact on the polyester end. Under the bearish game, PTA lacks a clear direction drive and may maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on April 16th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 10490 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 10760 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.51%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early April, the overall domestic spot market for metal silicon # 441 showed a weak downward trend. The focus of negotiations in the spot market for multiple grades of metal silicon continued to move towards lower levels. In the first ten days, the cumulative decline in the spot market for metal silicon was around 200-400 yuan/ton. As of April 16th, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 in East China was 10200-10400 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for metal silicon 441 in Tianjin was 10100-10300 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 10200~10300 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 10200~10500 yuan/ton.
analysis of influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall supply and demand performance of the metal silicon market is weak. Due to poor demand performance, the overall production capacity construction of industrial silicon in the north has led to a reduction in supply, while some silicon enterprises in the southwest have resumed production in a small scale, resulting in a slight increase in supply. However, with the reduction in demand in the north, the overall supply has decreased. The downstream transactions of silicon metal are cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude towards stocking up, and purchases are mainly for essential needs. The transmission between supply and demand in the silicon metal market is slow.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading and inquiry atmosphere in the metal silicon market is light, and the mentality of industry players is average. There is a certain level of concern in the market. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly focus on weak consolidation and operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Market price overview

According to data from Shengyi Society, the benchmark price of melamine has decreased this week. For example, on April 14th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared to the beginning of this month (6137.50 yuan/ton). On April 15th, the benchmark price further dropped to 6062.50 yuan/ton.
Meanwhile, according to publicly released information, the market price of melamine this week varies among different regions and brands, but overall shows a downward trend.
2、 Market Trends
1. Supply and demand relationship: The supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is an important factor affecting prices. If the supply exceeds the demand, the price often decreases. This week, there may be a supply-demand imbalance and price decline due to increased production by some manufacturers or reduced market demand.
2. Raw material cost: The raw material cost of melamine will also affect its market price. If the prices of raw materials decrease and production costs decrease, the market price of melamine may also decrease accordingly. As of April 15th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1970.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.35% compared to the beginning of this month (1997.00 yuan/ton).
3. Market competition: The melamine market is fiercely competitive, with significant price differences between different brands. In order to compete for market share, some brands may adopt a price reduction strategy.
3、 Market outlook
The future price trend of melamine market will be influenced by various factors. On the one hand, with the continuous strengthening of environmental policies and the intensification of market competition, some manufacturers may face the risk of production stoppage or reduction, leading to a decrease in supply; On the other hand, with the gradual recovery and growth of downstream demand, the demand for melamine is also expected to increase. Therefore, the future market price trend will depend on the balance of supply and demand.
In summary, the market price of melamine remained stable with a slight downward trend this week, influenced by various factors such as supply and demand, raw material costs, market competition, and policies and regulations. The future market price trend will depend on the balance of supply and demand. It is recommended to closely monitor market trends and changes in policies and regulations in order to adjust procurement and sales strategies in a timely manner.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stable with slight declines in the first half of April, and some spot prices of certain brands were lowered. As of April 15th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 15633.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.85% compared to the beginning of the month.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In early April, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had a large and stable load with small fluctuations. As of April 15th, the industry average operating level has narrowly decreased by 2% to 82% compared to the beginning of the month. Within the range, the weekly average production remains above 60000 tons, still at a super high level, and the on-site supply is very abundant. The mid stream inventory position is relatively high, and there is pressure on manufacturers to ship. Enterprises are gradually implementing parking plans. Overall, the supply of the interval has tightened narrowly. At the same time, there are restart arrangements to relax expectations for future market supply. The market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.
In terms of raw materials: As can be seen from the above chart, the price of bisphenol A rose slightly in the first half of April and then rebounded slightly. Affected by the temporary low point of the industry at the end of last month, some regions are experiencing tight supply, supporting the upward trend of spot prices. At the same time, both acetone and phenol have been warming up in the past half month, with a tendency towards bullish guidance in the field. However, as the middle of the month approaches, the prices of remote upstream crude oil have collapsed due to US tariffs, which has dealt a blow to the confidence of industry players in the future. In addition, there has been a recent increase in the workload of some enterprises, which has weakened the positive impact on supply. Downstream consumption urgently needs support, and overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.
On the demand side: Since early April, the PC consumption pattern has shifted from a long-term weakness to a rigid demand pattern, and new orders in the market have basically returned to the same period in previous years. Downstream factories are returning to normal load and stocking up as scheduled. Be cautious in purchasing logic. However, due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site sources of goods, the supply-demand imbalance tends towards destocking. Under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs, merchants tend to be cautious and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The circulation of goods on site is average, and the demand side is constrained in supporting PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In the first half of April, the domestic PC market experienced a slight decline. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently hindered in its upward trend, making it difficult to provide further support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC polymerization plants decreased steadily, and the supply was expected to increase in the second half of the month. At present, downstream demand follows the logic of rigid demand, but due to the impact of US tariff policies and crude oil fluctuations, industry concerns about the future have increased, and market trading has turned light. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and there is great pressure for sellers to sell their products. Therefore, it is expected that the PC market will continue to be light and stable in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor relevant news on the foreign trade environment.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the US tariff policy is fermenting, and nickel prices have bottomed out. On April 9th, spot electrolytic nickel fell to a four-year low of 120875 yuan/ton. Subsequently, due to policy disturbances in Indonesia, the decline stopped and rebounded. On April 14th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.6%.

Macro level: Policy disturbances dominate short-term sentiment
The US tariff policy has triggered expectations of a market economic recession, putting pressure on the prices of base metals. With the announcement of the suspension of tariffs by the United States, this measure has significantly improved the sentiment of the foreign market. Indonesia is about to implement a policy of increasing franchise fees, and the market is concerned about the rising cost of nickel mining, supporting a rebound in nickel prices.
Inventory differentiation: persistent oversupply phenomenon
On April 14th, domestic Shanghai nickel inventory was 25647 tons, a decrease of 1519 tons during the week, reflecting the easing of short-term spot pressure;
On April 14th, overseas LME nickel inventory was 204372 tons, an increase of 2064 tons during the week, and the global oversupply pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Low demand for stainless steel, weakened support for new energy
The stainless steel market is sluggish. On April 11th, the reference price of stainless steel was 13430.00, a decrease of 2.54% compared to April 1st (13780.00), mainly due to terminal rigid demand procurement and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. The profits of steel mills are under pressure, and some enterprises are reducing production, which is suppressing the demand for nickel.
The demand for nickel in ternary batteries has decreased. From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 25.0GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0%, accounting for 19.2% of the total installed capacity. The substitution effect of lithium iron phosphate batteries is enhanced, weakening the expected growth in nickel demand.
Market forecast: The impact of Indonesian policies will continue, and in the short term, there will be a strong consolidation trend. However, the high inventory and weak demand have limited the upward potential of nickel prices.

Market summary: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price has slightly fallen, and new production capacity is gradually being released. The positive support of reduced supply in the East China region is gradually weakening. As of April 10th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 9100-9300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the low-end of last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.

In terms of supply, factories in the East China region have basically implemented load reduction or maintenance, and there is little change in supply in the short term. The overall supply of acrylonitrile market is abundant. In addition, there are still variables in the later supply changes. According to statistics, as of April 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry was 79.94%, a decrease of 0.19% compared to the same period last week.
Inventory decline: Industry inventory remains controllable. According to statistics, as of April 10th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 48000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Weakened demand: Downstream demand may experience a phased weakening trend, with expectations of reduced load in acrylic fiber factories. The utilization rate of ABS production capacity in another downstream major industry is 67.95%, a decrease of 0.65% from last week, and raw materials are purchased on demand. In addition, due to macroeconomic factors, overall demand has decreased.
Market forecast: Currently, the price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market is slightly softer, with overall supply abundant and new production capacity gradually being released. At the same time, downstream demand may weaken in stages, coupled with the impact of tariff policies on upstream and downstream varieties and terminal consumption. The market as a whole is mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on April 10th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 10690 yuan/ton. Compared with April 6th (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 10760 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall downward trend this week. During the week, the overall silicon metal market lacked effective support, and the price center of spot markets for multiple regions and brands adjusted downwards, with a reduction of around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of April 11th, the reference market price for silicon metal 441 in East China was 10500-10600 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for silicon metal 441 # in Tianjin was 10300-10500 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 10400~10600 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 10500~10700 yuan/ton.
analysis of influencing factors
Supply side: Currently, the overall operating rate of metallic silicon in Xinjiang has been reduced, with a weekly operating rate of around 66%. The reduction in operating rates in Xinjiang is mainly affected by the overall production capacity reduction. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region is around 78%, and there has been a slight decrease in the operating rate within the week. Affected by the current overall reduction in the operating rate of silicon metal, the overall supply side of silicon metal in China is weak, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is insufficient.
On the demand side: Currently, the downstream demand for metallic silicon is generally boosted, and demand transmission is slow, resulting in a weak overall inquiry atmosphere in the market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of metal silicon are loose, and the improvement on the demand side is slow. The support for supply and demand in the market is weak. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the price of metal silicon market will maintain a bottom range oscillation, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market fluctuated in early April, with prices of some brand products fluctuating. As of April 9th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7623.33 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.62% compared to the price level at the beginning of March.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early April, the US tariff policy was implemented, and the tax rate was raised to an unprecedented level. The tariff trade war launched by Trump has had a huge impact on the global economy. Crude oil, as a heavily affected area, has experienced a sharp drop in prices recently. Acrylic continues to show a weak trend. Overall, the prices of various raw materials in early April did not provide strong support for the cost of PP.
Supply side:
In early April, the load of domestic PP enterprises remained stable with small fluctuations, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has remained relatively stable compared to the end of last month, maintaining around 76%, and the domestic weekly average production of about 730000 tons has also remained flat. Although it is still in the stage of capacity implementation in the near future, Yangzi Petrochemical and Ningbo Jinfa, which implemented maintenance in the first ten days, have lost production capacity. Compared with the production capacity returned by Baofeng and Dushanzi Petrochemicals in Inner Mongolia, the overall outlook for the future is expected to increase supply. The supply side has expectations of a weakened support for PP spot prices.
In terms of demand:
In early April, the demand for PP was basically flat, with on-site insurance and holding of essential needs. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises has generally stabilized. The demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture is slowly increasing with the warming temperatures. However, tariff trade barriers have had a huge impact on the global economy, increasing uncertainty in the future. Buyers tend to maintain production through scattered small orders, and although there has been no significant increase in new orders in the market. Overall, the demand side of PP showed cautious performance in April.
Future forecast
In early April, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average, the industry’s supply is stable with an increasing trend, and there is strong demand support in the consumption sector, resulting in a market supply-demand game. In the short term, the market is concerned about tariffs and the flow of goods, with expectations of reduced on-site consumption, and price trends may be mainly focused on consolidation.

The price of melamine has fluctuated to some extent this week, but overall it is running weakly. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.02% compared to the beginning of this month (6137.50 yuan/ton).

2、 Price Trend Analysis
From the above data, it can be seen that the overall price of melamine showed a weak trend this week, although there were slight fluctuations, there was no significant increase or decrease.
At present, the supply and demand in the melamine market are relatively balanced, and the deployment of new production capacity has maintained a certain degree of matching with downstream demand growth, thereby slowing down the direct impact of raw material price fluctuations on the melamine market. Some melamine production enterprises may respond to fluctuations in raw material prices by adjusting inventory, thereby stabilizing market prices to a certain extent.
During this week, the production capacity of the melamine industry remained relatively stable, with no large-scale increase or decrease in production, which helped maintain the smooth operation of the market.
This week, the demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings remained stable without significant growth or decline, which to some extent supported the stable operation of the melamine market.
3、 Future market outlook
This week, the melamine market remained slightly volatile, and there may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, which will have an impact on the production cost and price of the melamine market. Enterprises need to closely monitor the dynamics of the raw material market and develop reasonable procurement and production plans.
With the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may show a new growth trend. Enterprises need to pay attention to changes in downstream demand and adjust their product structure and sales strategies in a timely manner.
In summary, this week’s melamine market mainly operated weakly against the backdrop of fluctuations in raw material urea, mainly due to factors such as market supply and demand balance, inventory regulation, and policy regulation. Future enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.