1、 Price trend

Business agency: under the influence of supply and demand, maleic anhydride fell after soaring in December

According to the data of business society, as of December 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton (including tax), a decrease of 3.95% compared with 12666.67 yuan / ton on December 1. The highest price of maleic anhydride this month was 17666.67 yuan / ton and the lowest price was 12166.67 yuan / ton.

On December 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 114.61, down 3.14 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 123.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In the first ten days of December, affected by the epidemic situation, the shipment of maleic anhydride in Zhejiang was blocked, and the factories in other regions limited the shipment. The supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the price of maleic anhydride rose sharply; In the middle of the year, the tight supply situation in the early stage was alleviated, the maleic anhydride shipment in South China was normal, the new production capacity began to be sold abroad, the domestic maleic anhydride factory shipment was positive, the demand slowed down in the last ten days, the transaction was light, and the maleic anhydride price continued to decline. In November, international crude oil rose sharply and domestic chemical prices rose. The operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton.

In December, the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seemed milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.

In December 2021, the hydrobenzene market fluctuated upward. The ex factory price in North China was 6687.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6825 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.06%. In December, the hydrobenzene market was mainly volatile, the price fell at the beginning of the month, and entered the upward channel after running smoothly for a period of time. Boosted by the recovery of market prices, the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises increased slightly in December. Compared with pure benzene, the start-up and shutdown costs of hydrogenated benzene enterprises are lower, and most manufacturers schedule their production according to their profits.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that in December, affected by supply and demand, the price of domestic maleic anhydride market soared and plummeted, the operating rate of downstream resin raw materials fell, the willingness to receive goods downstream was low, the demand slowed down, and the wait-and-see mood was strong; At the end of the month, the maleic anhydride factory shipped actively and the price fell sharply. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be dominated by weak consolidation in January.

Aluminum prices rose sharply on the 30th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on December 30 was 20156.67 yuan / ton, up 1.05% from the average market price of 19946.67 yuan / ton on December 28; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 6.65%.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. With the peak value of this year (October 19, 2021) and the average market price of aluminum ingots of 124240 yuan / ton, it has fallen by 16.85% recently. With the average market price of aluminum ingots of 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has risen by 28.17%.

Latest news

Affected by the continuous fermentation of the European energy crisis, many aluminum plants in Europe reduced production, and Lun aluminum rose again to the price of more than 2800 US dollars / ton. Recently, the overall strong operation of domestic aluminum price is driven by the news of external market on the one hand, and the recent domestic continuous de inventory trend is also supporting the rise of aluminum price. In the later stage, we focused on the downward cost side, the willingness of aluminum plants to support prices after rising profits, and the inventory changes after the Spring Festival, the downward movement of downstream operating rate and the reduction of terminal consumption.

The price of ethylene oxide is stable. The ex factory price in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, oil prices continued to rise due to the decline of U.S. inventories. Ethylene prices remained stable after the slow decline. The external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was US $1020 / ton, that in Southeast Asia was US $1005 / ton, and that of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene was 8000 yuan / ton today, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The downward trend of raw material prices affected the downstream mentality. The cold wave swept most parts of the country, and the monomer market was cold at the same time. At present, ethylene oxide has a small profit space, and its economic benefit is higher than that of ethylene glycol. The impact of the news of the Winter Olympic Games and the epidemic situation after the year on the market is also unknown. People in the industry generally see stability in the short term.

On December 27, aluminum prices shifted downward

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on December 28 was 19773.33 yuan / ton, down 0.20% from the average market price of 19813.33 yuan / ton on December 24; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 4.62%.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. With the peak value of this year (October 19, 2021) and the average market price of aluminum ingots of 124240 yuan / ton, it has fallen by 18.43% recently. With the average market price of aluminum ingots of 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has risen by 25.73%.

influence factor

The price of overseas Lun aluminum is stagnant and slightly green. The transmission of natural gas from the United States to Europe has reduced the price of natural gas in Europe, slightly alleviated the energy contradiction, and the main driving force of this round of rise has gradually disappeared.

After the recent rebound of aluminum price, the market trading is general, mainly because the recent consumption has entered the off-season, especially the weak demand for building aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. It is expected that the output will increase month on month in December with the promotion of resumption of production in Yunnan on the supply side. It is expected that the domestic inventory destocking will slow down.

Price: the domestic phenol market continues the upward trend. East China negotiated a single day upward trend of 100 yuan / ton, with a reference of 9600-9700 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: Although the port inventory increased at the beginning of the week, there was little pressure from the cargo holders. Today, Yangzhou Shiyou phenol stopped shipping, and after the increase of lihuayi at the weekend, the quantity of shipments was controlled. Today, with the help of the centralized increase of the factory, the offer of the cargo holders further pushed up, the downstream still just needed to follow up, and the actual order trading was limited. The bidding price of downstream bisphenol A today was 14700 yuan / ton, the same as last week, and the market offer changed little.

Forecast: the business society expects that the market will continue to operate at a high level and stably tomorrow, and the reference value of East China market will be more than 9700 yuan / ton.

The phenol offers in the national markets closed on the previous working day are as follows:

region ., Quotation, Fluctuation range

East China 9650-9700 one hundred

Shandong region nine thousand and seven hundred fifty

Surrounding areas of Yanshan nine thousand and seven hundred fifty

South China nine thousand and seven hundred one hundred

Average price trend of national mainstream market

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week, and the price rose compared with last week. On December 19, the price of pure benzene was 6500-6900 yuan / ton (the average price was 6620 yuan / ton). On Sunday (December 26), the price of pure benzene was 6750-7000 yuan / ton (the average price was 6830 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 210 yuan / ton, or 3.17%, compared with last week, and 53.48% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In the first half of the week, due to the continuous increase in the arrival of pure benzene in Hong Kong, the continuous accumulation of inventory, the mentality of market participants was empty, and the price continued to fall weakly. Near the weekend, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil and the rise of downstream styrene, pure benzene stopped falling and rebounded. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene increased by 200 yuan / ton to 6800 yuan / ton (in North China, it decreased by 200 yuan / ton on Monday and 200 yuan / ton on Friday).

On the external market, Asian pure benzene rebounded after falling this week. On Thursday (December 23), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 927 US dollars / ton, up 13 US dollars / ton or 1.42% month on month (December 17); the reference price of imports in East China was 942.5 US dollars / ton, up 25 US dollars / ton or 2.72% month on month (December 17).

In terms of crude oil, although the oil price fell due to the surge of cases infected with the new crown variant strain Omicron in the United States and Europe at the beginning of the week, the research data showed that its impact on the economy and oil demand was weaker than expected, the market concerns were alleviated, and the oil price continued to rise broadly in addition to the sharp decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. As of December 23, Brent rose $3.33 / barrel, or 4.53%; WTI rose $2.93/barrel, or 4.13%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell first and then rose this week, and the price fell compared with last week. The price of sample enterprises was 8350 yuan / ton on December 17 and 8125 yuan / ton on December 24, down 2.69% compared with last week and up 23.73% compared with the same period last year. The operating load rate of styrene this week was 76.38%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points compared with last week, the overall production capacity was slightly lower than last week, and the wharf inventory was significantly removed due to the increase of delivery.

Aniline: the price of aniline is stable this week. On December 24, the price in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9800-10000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 25.43% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the driving force for the rise of international oil prices remains unchanged. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: this week, the port inventory has obvious destocking performance due to the incremental delivery, but styrene has entered the stage of new plant investment or restart communication, and the off-season spot demand is weak. Superimposed with the bad futures such as the Northern Winter Olympic Games, the bad has existed and the good has not yet been realized. It is expected that the styrene market will fluctuate and callback next week.

The downstream units in Shandong are planned to be put into operation, or drive a new round of rise in pure benzene; However, the price in East China may be dragged down by inventory. Pay attention to the downstream market, plant dynamics, domestic pure benzene plant dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to the monitoring data, the current mainstream market of China’s polyaluminum chloride Market decreased slightly on a single day (December 22-23): the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 22nd was 2491.25 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 23rd was about 2490 yuan / ton, with a single day decrease of only 0.05%. Recently, enterprises in China’s main production areas have started normally, with sufficient supply and general market demand, and the transaction is not very prosperous.

Raw material: hydrochloric acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the market price of hydrochloric acid in China fluctuated slightly in a single day (December 22-23). The mainstream quotation was 330 yuan / ton on the 22nd and 326 yuan / ton on the 23rd, down 1.21%. The upstream liquid chlorine market was general, the cost support was weakened, the maintenance of hydrochloric acid enterprises increased, the supply and demand was reduced, the downstream demand was weakened, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general.

As for the future market, raw hydrochloric acid continued to decline slightly, the price was weak and the market support was unstable; At present, the enterprises in the main production areas in China are operating normally and the supply of goods is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, and the transaction change has not been significantly improved. In the future, the market trend of polyaluminium chloride is stable, medium and slightly weak; If the price of raw materials continues to decline frequently and the demand does not increase significantly, it is more likely that the future market will continue to decline.

441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

On the 22nd, 44# metal silicon prices continued to operate in a weak and stable trend, with an average price of 22090 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The market operation rate is high and there is inventory backlog. According to traders, the shipment situation is not ideal. There are many recent inquiries, but the transaction is light, mainly low-cost goods.

Today, the ex factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC is around 24000-25000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 24300 yuan / ton. The increase of the ex factory price of silicone DMC in Shandong has led to a slight recovery of the market atmosphere, coupled with the negative expectation in the north, and the silicone price is up. Aluminum alloy manufacturers purchase actively, the transaction is OK, and the price is the same as yesterday. ADC12 Wuxi market quotation is 20000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

At present, the shutdown rate of silicon market is lower than expected, and the manufacturer’s production intention is still strong, but the release of market demand is poor, and the future price is expected to be weak.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (December 21): 2026.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, refineries in various regions in China today have different performances, and the prices of solid and liquid sulfur rise and fall with each other. The price of solid sulfur in East China has increased by 30-40 yuan / ton and the price of liquid sulfur has decreased by 60-80 yuan / ton, while the performance of liquid sulfur in Shandong and North China is stable. The price of solid sulfur in Shandong has increased by 30 yuan / ton and that in North China has increased by 40 yuan / ton. Domestic refineries have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market purchase is not active, the imported liquid sulfur increases, the focus of domestic liquid sulfur price moves downward, the progress of winter fertilizer storage market has improved, the market inquiry has increased, and the price of sulfur fixation has increased. The industry holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market as a whole.

Future forecast: the future sulfur market is in a stalemate, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: formic acid

Latest price (December 20): 4300 yuan / ton

On December 20, the market price of formic acid increased by 1.57% compared with last Friday, decreased by 42.67% compared with December 20, and increased by 86.96% compared with the same period last year. At present, the raw material methanol is running steadily, the price of caustic soda is rising, the price of sulfuric acid is rising slightly, the price of liquid ammonia is falling slightly, the cost support is OK, the enterprise is dissatisfied with the operating load, the market supply is in short supply, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market trading is orderly.

It is expected that in the short term, the formic acid market may be stable, medium and strong.