1、 Price trend

Latest price (June 13):8556.25 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on June 13, the average price of pvc5 in the domestic market was 581.25 yuan / ton, up 1.08% over the previous trading day and down 6.23% year-on-year. At present, the futures market is declining at a high level, the spot market is following a downward trend, downstream procurement continues to maintain rigid demand, the buyer and the seller negotiate carefully and maintain a wait-and-see state, and the mentality of the industry is poor. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3750-4050 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8250-8700 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 2, the price in Shandong was 11200-11430 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11800 yuan / ton; On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: this week, pure benzene rose strongly. External factors: the recent strong rise in international crude oil, coupled with the rise in the price of pure benzene in the US gold plate, drove the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China port decreased, the inventory continued to decline, and the shortage of deliverable inventory led to strong short pressure and rising prices. In addition, in the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan. On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (the average price was 9984 yuan / ton), an increase of 8.91% over last week and 28% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid stabilized after rising this week. On June 2, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2683.33 yuan / ton, and on June 10, it was 2800 yuan / ton. The price increased by 4.35% compared with last week and 23.53% compared with the same period last year.

Boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. However, due to the rapid rise of pure benzene, the increase of aniline was less than that of pure benzene, and the cost pressure of aniline increased.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

In terms of cost and pure benzene, the short-term crude oil and external price are still high, and under the influence of external price, the East China port will continue to have low inventory. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility.

In terms of nitric acid, the supply of nitric acid is tight, and the price of nitric acid is expected to be strong.

At present, there is no inventory pressure for aniline enterprises. Enterprises are watching the downstream to buy gas and rising cautiously. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 9 was 5158.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The year-on-year increase was 2.15%.

Crude oil prices continued to rise today, with strong cost side support. The total port inventory is slightly reduced, but the remaining space of storage tanks is limited, and American goods arrive this month. MEG port inventory will remain high in the short term. The external market of ethylene glycol has stabilized. Recently, the negotiated price of cargo is around 640 US dollars / ton. MEG operating rate has not fluctuated significantly for the time being. Affected by the continuous low purchasing sentiment in the downstream market, the production and sales are poor, and the increase of ethylene glycol cost is difficult to transmit to the downstream. In terms of units, the restart of Yangzi Petrochemical’s 300000 ton ethylene glycol unit was postponed to June 14. It is reported that the main production of EO and eg will be reduced to a low level in this later period.

Forecast: the cost is high but the downstream is weak, and the overall range of the market fluctuates widely.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (June 8): 17175 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is the same as that of the previous working day, and the market situation is on the sidelines. The factory has a firm attitude of supporting the market, the guidance price has been raised, the attitude of the goods holders is optimistic, the offer is temporarily stable, the enthusiasm for downstream inquiry has increased, the purchase in the market continues to be just needed, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 16800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and 17000-17300 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will wait and see, focusing on market supply and downstream follow-up.

On June 7, the rare earth index was 856 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising. The prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series are rising. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 962500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is rising by 5000 yuan / ton to 1165000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is rising by 2500 yuan / ton to 980000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 975000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is rising by 10000 yuan / ton to 1265000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is rising by 1195000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.57 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.655 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.35 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is rising, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, while the price of terbium series is temporarily stable. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later period.

On the cost side, crude oil and the external market continued to strengthen, and the external support was strong. Today, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan / ton to 9500 yuan / ton, driving the positive rise of the pure benzene market. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 9200-9650 yuan / ton.

The inventory level of aniline enterprises is normal, and the cost price continues to rise after the festival, so aniline has the power to act. Today, the price in Shandong is 11200-11400 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 11800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic acetone market was generally upward, but the market was stable near the holiday, and the actual orders in some regions were reduced. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5850 yuan / ton on May 27 and 6250 yuan / ton on June 2, up 4.25% in the week. Before the holiday, the offer in East China market was about 6050 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6280 yuan / ton, and that in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was 6300 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

Driven by the continuous rise of crude oil at the raw material end, the raw material pure benzene remains high, and the phenol ketone plant has been in a loss situation for a long time. In order to reverse this situation, the acetone in the phenol ketone plant has continuously raised the bill price for many times, accumulating around 300 yuan / ton. The plant’s rise has brought the market up, the operator’s mentality has been strongly supported, and the market offer has been pushed up.

The downstream MMA added new production units. After the first round of goods preparation before the festival, the trading atmosphere improved, which provided strong support for the upstream. However, with the price increase, the downstream goods preparation before the festival also basically ended. Near the holiday, some traders intend to ship with the intention of transferring profits. The bisphenol a market also experienced a narrow correction before the festival. After a sharp decline in the early stage, the participation of some intermediate traders increased, and many of them were willing to store goods at low prices. Further, the market inquiry increased, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton before the festival.

At present, the phenol ketone plant is still close to the profit and loss, and the enthusiasm for pushing up still exists. However, the operators in the field have a stable mentality, the offer remains firm, and they always pay attention to the trend of the plant. After the festival, it is the beginning of the month, and the downstream mainly digests contracts. The terminal has little enthusiasm for replenishment, and the trading volume may not be high. The business agency expects that the domestic acetone market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range next week.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on June 2 was 5000 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Up 0.2% year on year.

WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil fell during the day, and the cost side was adjusted weakly. The external market of ethylene glycol has stabilized. Recently, the negotiated price of shipping and cargo has been around us $624 / ton, the MEG operating rate has declined slightly, the port inventory has remained high, the downstream market trading is light, and the production and sales of polyester market have not been significantly improved.

Forecast: the fundamentals did not show an obvious positive trend, and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range in the state of undervaluation.

Zinc price fell on June 1

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell on June 1, and the zinc market fell back. On June 1, the zinc price was 26172 yuan / ton, down 0.01% from 26174 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On June 1, the zinc price fell back; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 13.14% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

Zinc ingot inventory in LME market decreased, registered warehouse receipts decreased, cancelled warehouse receipts decreased, supply growth in zinc market slowed down and demand growth increased; Downstream enterprises resumed production and work, more enterprises in the zinc industry chain started work, and the supply and demand of zinc market recovered. However, the supply and demand of zinc market has not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc market still has great upward momentum.

Aftermarket forecast

The recovery of supply and demand was not as good as expected, and the zinc price was expected to rise slightly in the future.

Trend of metallic magnesium in May

In May, the magnesium ingot Market rose first and then fell. The overall weakness was mainly downward. At the end of the month, it closed down steadily. As of May 31, the market tax included spot exchange was 31000 yuan / ton, down about 5000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 14.68%. At the beginning of the month, the metal magnesium started its upward trend. After the May Day holiday, some customers entered the market one after another. Although the market inquiries increased, there were still few high price transactions. Subsequently, the orchid charcoal rectification news stimulated the market. The price rose rapidly. The price rise again made the buyers and sellers cautious, and the quotation gradually returned to a rational state. In the middle and late ten days of the month, the magnesium market began to decline all the way. In view of the large differences in factory inventory and capital, the market quotation was seriously divided, and the mainstream price mainly fell until it remained at the 30000 yuan level.

Market analysis

Factory aspect

At this stage, the production level of magnesium plants is relatively normal. Under the premise of the lack of good news in the market, the mentality of magnesium manufacturers is empty. Different magnesium plants have different direct inventory and capital pressure. Small-scale enterprises often take the initiative to reduce prices, hoping to drive the transaction. However, large-scale magnesium enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, which is not the reason for price concessions. Some magnesium plants choose not to offer prices and wait and see the market.

Raw material cost

Dolomite in Wutai Area is currently quoted at 180 yuan / ton. As the main raw material of magnesium ingot, the supply of dolomite is becoming more and more tense. At present, the time for the resumption of the mine is uncertain, or it will have a certain impact on the subsequent supply.

The spot price of raw ferrosilicon and coke was weak, and the market followed the downward trend. The price in the main production areas of Ningxia was 8700-8900 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 8755 yuan / ton. Ferrosilicon manufacturers began to avoid peak production due to profit contraction, and capacity replacement began in some areas, resulting in a downward trend in the start-up and output in May; The coke market has experienced four rounds of increase and decrease. As of the press release, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 3116 yuan / ton, and coke enterprises take the initiative to limit production by 1-30%; The overall operating rate of the downstream enterprises of Lancang carbon is low, and the transaction of some high priced resources is frustrated. The price drops slightly, and the decline of raw material prices weakens the cost support for magnesium ingots.

Aftermarket forecast

In May, the market was affected by the continued weakness of the demand market. On the contrary, the supply side showed a slow upward trend, and the market mentality was generally empty. On the news, Yulin Lancan’s rectification policy was delayed and lacked positive boost, and the magnesium ingot quotation continued to decline. As a result, the production profit is further squeezed. In addition, the current price is at the node of 30000 yuan, and the magnesium plant is willing to offer more. Whether it can stabilize depends on the subsequent recovery of demand.