August 9 news, the same day the news that the Libyan Sharala oil field in the short-term after the resumption of production to return to about 27 million barrels of normal level. The market worried about the crude oil market will continue to maintain oversupply situation, oil prices under pressure.

As of the day closing, the New York Mercantile Exchange in September delivery of light crude oil futures fell $ 0.22 to close at $ 49.17 a barrel, down 0.45%. October delivery of London Brent crude oil futures fell $ 0.23 to close at 52.14 US dollars a barrel, down 0.44%.

Recently the cobalt city and then welcome. According to the business data show that August 1 cobalt commodity index was 143.82, compared with the previous day rose 0.11 points, compared with the highest point in the cycle 145.08 points (2017-07-06) fell 0.87%, compared with July 10, 2016 The lowest point 69.84 points rose 105.93%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

Cobalt material characteristics of outstanding, vertical and horizontal seven areas, the industry value chain to accelerate the development of the whole, the industry concentration steadily improved, cobalt rare when the benefits of multiple links: cobalt material physical and chemical properties, widely used in seven areas , Involving materials, chemicals, batteries and other aspects. Which lithium cobalt oxide and ternary material in the form of lithium battery as a cathode material, in the field of intelligent 3C and new energy vehicles a lot of applications. Coke prices in the current range, the cumulative increase in 2017 reached 65%. Relying on smart electronics, the demand for new energy vehicles heavy volume, the relevant cobalt raw materials in the downstream market applications will gradually increase, driving the entire upstream raw material production and development of enterprise scale expansion, forming a good cycle to strengthen the model. Downstream seven areas continue to rise in demand will also boost the demand for raw materials.

The supply side – the slowdown in the future growth is limited, the shortage cycle to promote the rise in cobalt prices: According to the cobalt two sources of mine + refining estimates, on the one hand the main mine lower yield, giants reluctant to sell behavior continued, cobalt ore production recovery rate is limited; On the one hand refining the cobalt industry continued to slump leading to the global production capacity of refined cobalt is limited, the two effects superimposed, the supply of short-term can not achieve sustained and stable output. We estimate the supply of cobalt, which 2017-2018 is expected to cobalt supply of 99089 tons and 102489 tons, an increase of 5.54% and 3.43%. Overall, 2017-2018 global cobalt supply and refined cobalt production growth rate will not be much improvement, heavy volume is not obvious, slow down the recovery rate, the supply cycle is still in the future, the basis of the future is more stable, logical Can stand.

Demand side – the seven downstream areas Qi force, support demand continued to grow: demand growth mainly from the demand for new energy vehicles brought ternary material with a substantial increase in cobalt content, high temperature alloy demand growth, carbide demand slowed. At the same time, industrial areas, 3C and energy storage capacity of cobalt growth will also maintain steady growth. In the global trend of irreversible development of new energy vehicles, ternary battery applications to enhance the proportion of the general trend of the future power battery will become the main increase in demand for cobalt. We expect the global cobalt demand in 2017 to 2019 will grow at a rate of 7% -9%. In 2017, the demand in 2018 will reach 123,400 tons and 132,700 tons respectively.

The supply of slow heavy volume superposition of the rapid growth of demand, the shortage of space still exists, the future growth of cobalt industry chain still in the overall view, cobalt resources supply and demand is not balanced, the future shortfall gap will expand, the possibility of rising cobalt prices will increase. It is expected that the shortage of space will be further widened in 2017-2018, facing a gap of 24,300 tons and 30,200 tons of raw materials. The growth rate of refined cobalt supply in the world is growing at a slower rate than cobalt consumption, mainly due to the strong growth of rechargeable batteries and aerospace industries. Cobalt industry chain into the inventory stage, which basically get support to regain the uplink power.

Overall, the first half of 2017 small metal plate market is good, although the product differentiation, but generally fell little, or significant increase. Which is the most eye-catching performance of cobalt, is a small metal plate deserved to star varieties. In the short-term fundamentals can not be changed under the premise of the market is expected to stabilize stability, some varieties such as indium, magnesium, antimony, bismuth, will be weak and stable, small metal index fluctuation range at 750-850 points.

According to institutional data, a large number of rare earth varieties on the 3rd offer a substantial increase, especially since this year, approaching 60% of praseodymium neodymium prices rise again.

Data show that July 31 to August 3, praseodymium from 49 million / ton up to 51 million / ton, neodymium from 365,000 yuan / ton rose to 38 million / ton, praseodymium neodymium rose 2 Million yuan / ton to 41.5 million / ton. Metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium latest offer were 48 million / ton, 530,000 yuan / ton, respectively, up 15,000 yuan / ton and 30,000 yuan / ton. In addition, gadolinium oxide from 90,000 yuan / ton up to 95,000 yuan / ton, gadolinium iron rose 0.5 million / ton. Dysprosium oxide and dysprosium iron were up 2 million / ton. Erbium oxide rose 0.5 million yuan / ton.

Guotai Junan colored team that in July the domestic rare earth industry continued to “hit the black”, the main origin of Hunan, Guangdong is being verified, the industry supply and demand conditions continue to improve, rare earth prices will continue to bullish, during the year or do not see the end.

In addition, the Shanghai News reporter learned yesterday from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Zhang source tungsten industry in the first half of August long offer has been released. Among them, black tungsten concentrate (WO3 ≥ 65%) offer for 91,000 yuan / ton, white tungsten concentrate (WO3 ≥ 65%) offer for 89,500 yuan / ton, were higher than the second half of July rose 0.65 million / Standard tons. Ammonium paratungstate (GB grade zero) offer for 14 million / ton (cash), compared with the second half of July rose 1 million / ton.

Everbright Securities Research report that the mine self-reduction, environmental supervision and production quota enforcement efforts to increase the upstream supply continued to tighten, downstream consumption remained stable, coupled with raw material suppliers bullish reluctant to sell mood, 2017 tungsten prices into the rising channel. With the improvement of supply and demand, tungsten prices are expected to continue to rise.

According to sources, the European polystyrene (PS) spot price fell last week compared to the previous week.

Wednesday, GM polystyrene (GPPS) spot FD Northwest Europe offer for 1,300 euros / ton, compared to the previous week down 20 euros / ton; high impact polystyrene (HIPS) spot FD Northwest Europe offer 1,380 euros / ton.

“Last week’s demand for health,” said one trader and added that he had traded several deals.

HIPS

But he also pointed out that the price is difficult to mention, because the market would have expected the price in August will be lower.

August styrene raw materials prices bearish, GPPS demand decline, even if the market is more active, it is difficult to support the price rise.

Another trader says there will be some inventory adjustments before the summer holiday arrives.

In addition, according to industry sources, Egypt E-styrenics is expected to restart GPPS production in the short term. But the news did not get the company’s comments.

E-styrenics GPPS production plant since the first quarter of this year began to shut down.

Traders said that although E-styrenics may be the first batch of products produced after the restart of the device supply to the local market, but also most likely in the near future exports to Europe.

According to Zion’s market research report, the market value of global biodegradable polymers in 2014 is about $ 1.68 billion, which is expected to reach $ 5.18 billion in 2020. 2015 to 2020, the annual growth rate of more than 21%.

The polymer is a long chain monomer compound formed by a chemical reaction. It consists of a large number of repeating units and the mass is very high. Biodegradable polymers can be broken down into simple, reusable natural products after completing their mission. Biodegradable polymers are non-toxic, do not harm the environment, can be maintained before degradation, and the degradation rate can also be controlled. Degradation of biodegradable polymers mainly by means of microorganisms, decomposition will produce such as carbon dioxide, organic fuels and water such as natural by-products.

The demand for biodegradable and biobased products is increasing as a result of sustainable development policies and increasing concerns about the use of environmentally friendly products, which is also a major driver of biodegradable polymers to capture the market. At the same time, the government supports the production of environmentally friendly biodegradable polymers is also a key factor in market growth. Oil-based polymer production of raw materials – crude oil prices also help to promote the demand for biodegradable polymers. However, biodegradable polymers are not used in the field of alternative synthetic petroleum based plastics, and are expensive to manufacture, so the production of accurate biodegradable polymers may affect market growth. Future, end-user applications and the price of raw materials for biodegradable polymers will provide potential market opportunities in the coming years.

The market for biodegradable polymers is based on type, application and region. Biodegradable polymers can be divided into hydrolyzable backbone polymers, carbon skeleton polymers and natural polymer polymers. Hydrolyzable backbone polymers are classified as polyglycolic acid (PGA), polycaprolactone (PCL), polyamide, polyurethane, in which polyglycolic acid (PGA) is widely used and consists of polyamide and polyurethane. Polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) is a polymer with a carbon backbone, and amylopectin, starch, chitin and chitosan are a class of natural macromolecules. Starch-based polymers are widely used in food packaging due to ease of use.

Biodegradable polymers are widely used in packaging, agriculture and medicine. In medical applications, biodegradable polymers are used to prevent adhesives, drug delivery systems and surgical sutures. In addition, biodegradable polymers are used for agricultural cover, and starch-based packaging, cellulose-based packaging and PLA-based packaging.

By region, Europe accounted for the main market for biodegradable polymers in 2014, largely due to the high concentration of green technology and manufacturing in Germany and the Netherlands. It is expected that during this period, the northern United States will grow significantly, as the region’s awareness of crude oil value and rising crude oil prices. Further, the Asia-Pacific region as India and China and other emerging economies, industrial development, it is possible to accelerate the growth of the market.

In the biodegradable polymer market, Cortec Group, Mitsui Chemicals, BASF, Biotech Co., Ltd. and the two companies, CereplastMetabolix and FP International and other companies are top companies. These market participants are committed to improving the production of biodegradable polymers by research and development to expand their application

According to Rosstat, Russia’s statistics show that Russia’s chemical production rose 7.4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, despite a decline in production in May and June, according to Rosstat, the Russian Bureau of Statistics.

In June this year, Russian chemical production fell 1.4% qoq, after May production fell 1.5% qoq.

Russian ethylene production in June was 257,000 tons, while in May was 260,000 tons. Overall, Russia’s ethylene production in the first half of this year reached 1.5 million tons, an increase of 10.2%.

Russian production in June fell to 106,000 tons, compared with 11.4 million tons in May production fell 7%, mainly due to the operation of the Russian oil company Angkorsk polymer plant plans to shut down maintenance. The first half of this year, Russian benzene production of more than 703,000 tons, an increase of 11.5%.

Russian xylene production in June was 35,300 tons, compared with 51,400 tonnes in May. The first half of this year, Russian xylene production was 276,900 tons, down 7.8%.

June caustic soda production was 10.3 million tons, down 5.2% qoq. The first half of this year, Russian caustic soda production of 61.78 million tons, an increase of 12.3%.

International oil prices since the end of June fell below $ 45 / barrel low after the two waves rebounded, but the rebound is not, twice in the 50 US dollars / barrel position suffered strong pressure down, indicating that the market confidence in the second half of the oil market is still insufficient , Mainly on the supply of potential growth is still more worried.

In fact, OPEC (OPEC) since the implementation of the implementation of the policy since the implementation is better. However, the second quarter OPEC grams of production has a slight increase in the trend. OPEC latest monthly data show that the overall output in June than in May increased by 40 million barrels / day to 3261 million barrels / day, more than the organization limited to 32.5 million barrels / day on the line level, the main increase from unrestricted production constraints Libya and Nigeria, as well as Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iraq. Therefore, the market has reason to worry about whether the OPEC in the second half to maintain the first half of the higher production rate.

US crude oil production also contributed to OPEC production efforts to reduce the results greatly reduced. US crude oil production has increased by nearly 12% to 940 million barrels per day in 2016. However, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) latest monthly report cut the US crude oil production in 2018. The agency predicted that 2018 US crude oil production 990 million barrels / day, an increase of 57 million barrels / day; and the agency in June forecast 2018 crude oil production will exceed 10 million barrels, an increase of 67 million barrels / day. Baker Hughes data show that the United States Permian basin nearly two months since the rapid growth rate of rigs, indicating that the current level of oil prices, the US shale oil production is expected to be too optimistic. Because the Permian is the United States shale oil 7 major areas in the lowest breakeven point, the lowest cost of mining quality oil and gas resources area.

In addition, the trend of declining global crude oil inventories is also being established. OPEC monthly data show that OECD commercial inventories have continued to decline this year, despite the slow decline in May stocks fell 12.9 million barrels to 3 billion barrels. At the same time, US commercial crude oil inventories have fallen to 500 million barrels, although it is also slow down. From the forecasts of OPEC and EIA, the overall demand for crude oil in 2018 is slightly larger than supply growth, although OPEC production is largely offset by higher US production, but supply and demand will be more balanced, the decline in inventory or will lead Oil prices.

Overall, the US crude oil production will continue to suppress the long-term increase in oil prices, if the OPEC in the first quarter of 2018 after the withdrawal agreement to increase production, the oil market will be volatile. However, the short term, as long as OPEC can continue to implement a better cut production agreement, the second half of the supply and demand situation will continue to improve. International oil prices are expected to still have the opportunity to rise in the second half, although the rise of space will not be too much. Therefore, at the current level of oil prices, can still continue to maintain long thinking.

The 22nd World Petroleum Congress is rich in information and can be reviewed and sorted out from five key words, including rebalancing, technology, change, energy transformation and cooperation. Meeting to reach a consensus, investment plus technology to drive oil and gas in the future. At present, the international oil companies pay more attention to upstream and downstream integration of balanced investment, asset optimization has become a trend. With the low cost of oil and gas industry has gradually become the main tone of development, oil engineering technology and development model innovation will become the engine of enterprise development.

From July 9 to 13, the 22nd World Petroleum Congress was held in Istanbul, Turkey. Nearly 3,000 delegates from more than 90 countries, including representatives of heads of state, government ministers, business leaders and industry organizations, have held nearly 100 meetings around the theme of “bridging the bridge to the future of energy”. Meeting information is huge, I will review from the five key words and finishing.

The first key words: rebalance. At present, the entire oil and gas industry are struggling with low oil prices, the future market will usher in rebalancing, which depends on two indicators. First, the United States shale oil and gas production slowdown, the US shale oil is acting as the role of oil price regulation is expected this year, the United States shale oil investment will grow 53% in the United States have sufficient resources, the best technology, unique pipeline, Foundation, land all systems and government support, the US shale oil and gas industry will affect the world’s energy prices. Second, the decline in crude oil inventories. But in this process, there will be a lot of unknown problems, such as the recent Nigeria and Libya, the two did not participate in the production of OPEC countries a substantial increase in production, means that the market will slow down the rate of rebalancing. In the foreseeable future, oil prices may continue to hover between $ 45 / barrel and $ 65 / barrel.

The second key words: technology. Low oil prices are also the way the oil industry forward, at a lower price, we will re-examine the cost, to promote technology, processing and other aspects of innovation to meet the low oil prices. Technological progress not only makes shale oil, deep water, heavy oil and other unconventional resources development capabilities continue to increase, but also makes the North Sea and other conventional oil field production increased again. US shale oil and gas costs fell to $ 40 to $ 50 a barrel from $ 70 a barrel in 2014 when oil prices fell, while oil and offshore oil breakage prices are close to $ 50 per barrel and Russian costs have fallen to $ 50 / barrel or less. US KBR has designed the GVA10000 semi-submersible platform to develop smaller oil fields that producers are beginning to focus on and can profit from $ 40 / barrel of oil prices; Exxon Mobil develops carbon capture fuel cells from seaweed Advanced biofuels; technological innovation also plays an important role in Papua New Guinea’s $ 19 billion worth of PNG liquefied natural gas projects, large-scale refineries in Singapore, Qatar and Iraq’s LNG projects.

The third key words: change. At present, the international oil companies pay more attention to the upstream and downstream integration of balanced investment, asset optimization and distribution of the trend, the merger between the oil companies will become the norm. With the low cost gradually become the future of the world oil and gas industry, the main tone of development, oil engineering technology and development model innovation will become the engine of enterprise development. In addition to Exxon Mobil, the other four major international oil companies in 2015 to 2016 stripping about 10 billion US dollars, the purpose is to balance the upstream and downstream business. Total controls capital and operating expenses, aimed at low-cost oil assets, while withdrawing some high-cost projects, down $ 2.3 billion in operating expenses last year, the target is to reduce $ 3.5 billion. General Electric completed the acquisition of Baker Hughes. Shell oil company to buy 47 billion pounds (70 billion US dollars) to buy the British Gas Group (BG). Western oil companies to speed up the integration of the entire technology chain, and strengthen the national oil company horizontal integration of strategic cooperation, service model to the integration, networking, personalized development. National oil companies are in the downstream market-oriented to speed up industrial upgrading or expansion in the upstream to profit-driven structure optimization, relying on innovation-driven reorganization or construction of the whole industry chain integration, to ensure the implementation of low-cost and energy strategy. Small and medium-sized oil companies rely on innovation to highlight the differentiated, specialized small and medium-sized companies are becoming the main body of diversified innovation.

The fourth key words: energy transformation. Oil and gas is still an important resource to protect the world’s energy security, but in response to global climate change, clean, efficient, safe, low-carbon oil and gas industry is an inevitable trend. “It is expected that the renewable energy revolution will continue and the average annual growth rate will reach 7% by 2035.” In response to the Paris climate agreement call, countries have put renewable energy on the agenda, many of them, “said Disha Shang, executive vice president of BP Group. Big oil companies have begun to vigorously develop renewable energy business. Turkey plans to raise the share of renewable energy by 30 percent by 2023. Norwegian National Oil said low-carbon development will make the company more competitive in the future, the company’s current carbon emissions intensity of 10 kg / barrel oil equivalent, lower than the industry average of 17 kg / barrel oil equivalent, the goal is 2030 years ago Down to 8 kg / barrel of oil equivalent. China is at the forefront of the development of wind energy, solar energy, nuclear power and energy efficiency. In 2016, China’s energy investment accounted for 21% of the global total investment, is the world’s largest energy investment countries, including coal investment by 25%, clean energy power generation, power grid construction and energy efficiency investment is increasing, and through the combustible ice test The role of leadership.

The fifth key words: cooperation. All stakeholders, including government, oil and gas, academia and society, stressed that the world’s energy systems are undergoing major changes, and that many oil producers are experiencing a significant impact on the oil price cycle. The burden of operating pressure, the oil industry must cooperate to protect the energy future. Among them, OPEC stressed the need to strengthen cooperation with the United States and other non-OPEC countries to ensure oil supply security and market stability, after all, unilateral efforts are limited. Shale revolution to the United States to return to the status of oil-producing countries, OPEC deliberately cut production last year, from the United States and other non-Opel countries production has been rising, so that OPEC cut little effect. Wang Yilin, chairman of China National Petroleum Group, elaborated on the significance of strengthening the level of cooperation and cooperation between the “one side” and the promotion of mutually beneficial win-win cooperation. We stress that we should jointly promote the construction of Eurasian large channel, big market and big industry, community.

According to Reuters, Russian sources say the Russian side is ready to reshape the oil market with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Moscow agreed with the multilateral proposal made by Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC, to meet the increasing production of Nigeria and Libya.

With the Russian OPEC Affairs Consultative Officer, he said that he welcomed any achievements to meet the challenge to balance the rise of the oil market. Russia’s primary responsibility for balancing the oil market as its own and will continue to work with other oil-producing countries. Recently, a Saudi energy industry news that the hope that through other supply adjustment methods to coordinate the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, and stressed that this need to work with other oil-producing countries.

Libya and Nigeria in recent weeks, the output has been the highest over the years, leading to market regulation delay. Six miners from OPEC and non OPEC member states, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, met in St. Petersburg, Russia, on July 24 to discuss the reduction and future plans.

Neil Atkinson, head of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market and industry sector, said in an interview that crude oil inventories would fall in the second half of 2017 due to OPEC production and support oil prices. However, the executives believe that oil prices will not rise too much, because the rise will only further encourage shale oil supply.

In the first half of 2017, China’s methanol production was about 22.2 million tons, an increase of about 1.1 million tons, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year; imports of about 3.9 million tons, compared with the same period last year decreased by about 350,000 tons, down 8%; apparent consumption 26 million tons, an increase of about 620,000 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 2.4%. China’s imports increased, imports were reduced, direct consumption and factory-to-factory trade increased, the secondary trade market gradually shrinking, which is the characteristics of the first half of the methanol market.

The first half of the slowdown in imports

In the first half of 2017, China’s imports of methanol compared with the same period last year reduced by about 350,000 tons, exports over the same period last year increased by about 90,000 tons. Since October last year, the domestic commodity market generally rose sharply, hit a three-year high, prompting China’s imports of methanol last year more than 8 million tons, only the first half of imports of 4.25 million tons. This year, the relatively high price of methanol to stimulate the domestic methanol enterprises to high-load production, part of the perennial unopened device restart, the first half of China’s total methanol production increased by about 5% over the same period last year.

Domestic high-yield to a certain extent, inhibited the international methanol exports to China, and the first half of China’s exports (re-export) about 100,000 tons of methanol, an increase of 5 times over the same period last year, relatively inhibited the international methanol high prices. For the port market, the import reduction, re-exports increased, and did not cause the situation without goods available, on the contrary, the domestic port area stocks continue to maintain a relatively high, domestic and imported goods in the port market and even two rounds of price games, and occupy Part of the port market.

Traditional downstream demand is shrinking

Table for the first half of the traditional demand for methanol downstream

From the data point of view, the first half of 2017, the overall downstream of methanol showing a shrinking state, especially environmental protection, safety supervision and other formaldehyde caused by the demand for methanol greatly reduced. In addition, due to crude oil prices fell, liquefied petroleum gas prices continued to decline, a corresponding reduction in demand for dimethyl ether, thereby reducing the amount of dimethyl ether on methanol. In terms of actual demand, the proportion of traditional downstream demand continued to decline in the first half, while the proportion of methanol to olefins has exceeded 50%.

Trade gradually changed

Production increased, apparent consumption growth, but the traditional downstream demand is declining, indicating that China’s secondary market for methanol continues to shrink. In 2016, China’s 39 million tons of production and 47 million tons of apparent consumption, of which about 21 million tons without direct trade into the downstream, accounting for about 44.68%, while the first half of this year, the proportion has risen to 46.15% about. Among them, the methanol to olefins plant own methanol accounted for the vast majority of the proportion, and part of formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, methane chloride and other factories also own methanol plant, strictly speaking, this part of the methanol is only intermediate, As a formal commodity appears in the market.

In addition to this part of the methanol plant directly to the downstream plant on the factory-like trade is also increasing, while the coastal Shenghong, Fu Tak, Xingxing and other olefins plant and occupy a large number of imported goods, so that traders left for the second trade Less of the goods. The first half of the nationwide carried out a long-term environmental protection, safety management, for the traditional scattered downstream of methanol caused no small impact, some small businesses were forced to shut down or even removed, the overall impact of the traditional needs of the downstream methanol. The Jiangsu Sheng Hong, Changzhou Fu Tak methanol to olefins plant to open, once again increased the methanol to olefins in the downstream of the proportion of methanol.

In the long run, China’s traditional methanol downstream of the operation through the perennial, the market has been basically close to saturation, there is no room for expansion, methanol-based olefin plant due to the larger amount of the majority of self-owned or about the way upstream. In recent years, with the environmental protection, safety supervision of the upgrade, part of the scattered methanol downstream is gradually being eliminated, this part of the demand will continue to reduce the trend for China’s secondary market for methanol, the extensive mode of operation is past, The future by the second trade links into the market of methanol, will gradually continue to reduce.