Discussion on the Development Direction of Oil and Gas Industry from Five Key Words

The 22nd World Petroleum Congress is rich in information and can be reviewed and sorted out from five key words, including rebalancing, technology, change, energy transformation and cooperation. Meeting to reach a consensus, investment plus technology to drive oil and gas in the future. At present, the international oil companies pay more attention to upstream and downstream integration of balanced investment, asset optimization has become a trend. With the low cost of oil and gas industry has gradually become the main tone of development, oil engineering technology and development model innovation will become the engine of enterprise development.

From July 9 to 13, the 22nd World Petroleum Congress was held in Istanbul, Turkey. Nearly 3,000 delegates from more than 90 countries, including representatives of heads of state, government ministers, business leaders and industry organizations, have held nearly 100 meetings around the theme of “bridging the bridge to the future of energy”. Meeting information is huge, I will review from the five key words and finishing.

The first key words: rebalance. At present, the entire oil and gas industry are struggling with low oil prices, the future market will usher in rebalancing, which depends on two indicators. First, the United States shale oil and gas production slowdown, the US shale oil is acting as the role of oil price regulation is expected this year, the United States shale oil investment will grow 53% in the United States have sufficient resources, the best technology, unique pipeline, Foundation, land all systems and government support, the US shale oil and gas industry will affect the world’s energy prices. Second, the decline in crude oil inventories. But in this process, there will be a lot of unknown problems, such as the recent Nigeria and Libya, the two did not participate in the production of OPEC countries a substantial increase in production, means that the market will slow down the rate of rebalancing. In the foreseeable future, oil prices may continue to hover between $ 45 / barrel and $ 65 / barrel.

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The second key words: technology. Low oil prices are also the way the oil industry forward, at a lower price, we will re-examine the cost, to promote technology, processing and other aspects of innovation to meet the low oil prices. Technological progress not only makes shale oil, deep water, heavy oil and other unconventional resources development capabilities continue to increase, but also makes the North Sea and other conventional oil field production increased again. US shale oil and gas costs fell to $ 40 to $ 50 a barrel from $ 70 a barrel in 2014 when oil prices fell, while oil and offshore oil breakage prices are close to $ 50 per barrel and Russian costs have fallen to $ 50 / barrel or less. US KBR has designed the GVA10000 semi-submersible platform to develop smaller oil fields that producers are beginning to focus on and can profit from $ 40 / barrel of oil prices; Exxon Mobil develops carbon capture fuel cells from seaweed Advanced biofuels; technological innovation also plays an important role in Papua New Guinea’s $ 19 billion worth of PNG liquefied natural gas projects, large-scale refineries in Singapore, Qatar and Iraq’s LNG projects.

The third key words: change. At present, the international oil companies pay more attention to the upstream and downstream integration of balanced investment, asset optimization and distribution of the trend, the merger between the oil companies will become the norm. With the low cost gradually become the future of the world oil and gas industry, the main tone of development, oil engineering technology and development model innovation will become the engine of enterprise development. In addition to Exxon Mobil, the other four major international oil companies in 2015 to 2016 stripping about 10 billion US dollars, the purpose is to balance the upstream and downstream business. Total controls capital and operating expenses, aimed at low-cost oil assets, while withdrawing some high-cost projects, down $ 2.3 billion in operating expenses last year, the target is to reduce $ 3.5 billion. General Electric completed the acquisition of Baker Hughes. Shell oil company to buy 47 billion pounds (70 billion US dollars) to buy the British Gas Group (BG). Western oil companies to speed up the integration of the entire technology chain, and strengthen the national oil company horizontal integration of strategic cooperation, service model to the integration, networking, personalized development. National oil companies are in the downstream market-oriented to speed up industrial upgrading or expansion in the upstream to profit-driven structure optimization, relying on innovation-driven reorganization or construction of the whole industry chain integration, to ensure the implementation of low-cost and energy strategy. Small and medium-sized oil companies rely on innovation to highlight the differentiated, specialized small and medium-sized companies are becoming the main body of diversified innovation.

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The fourth key words: energy transformation. Oil and gas is still an important resource to protect the world’s energy security, but in response to global climate change, clean, efficient, safe, low-carbon oil and gas industry is an inevitable trend. “It is expected that the renewable energy revolution will continue and the average annual growth rate will reach 7% by 2035.” In response to the Paris climate agreement call, countries have put renewable energy on the agenda, many of them, “said Disha Shang, executive vice president of BP Group. Big oil companies have begun to vigorously develop renewable energy business. Turkey plans to raise the share of renewable energy by 30 percent by 2023. Norwegian National Oil said low-carbon development will make the company more competitive in the future, the company’s current carbon emissions intensity of 10 kg / barrel oil equivalent, lower than the industry average of 17 kg / barrel oil equivalent, the goal is 2030 years ago Down to 8 kg / barrel of oil equivalent. China is at the forefront of the development of wind energy, solar energy, nuclear power and energy efficiency. In 2016, China’s energy investment accounted for 21% of the global total investment, is the world’s largest energy investment countries, including coal investment by 25%, clean energy power generation, power grid construction and energy efficiency investment is increasing, and through the combustible ice test The role of leadership.

The fifth key words: cooperation. All stakeholders, including government, oil and gas, academia and society, stressed that the world’s energy systems are undergoing major changes, and that many oil producers are experiencing a significant impact on the oil price cycle. The burden of operating pressure, the oil industry must cooperate to protect the energy future. Among them, OPEC stressed the need to strengthen cooperation with the United States and other non-OPEC countries to ensure oil supply security and market stability, after all, unilateral efforts are limited. Shale revolution to the United States to return to the status of oil-producing countries, OPEC deliberately cut production last year, from the United States and other non-Opel countries production has been rising, so that OPEC cut little effect. Wang Yilin, chairman of China National Petroleum Group, elaborated on the significance of strengthening the level of cooperation and cooperation between the “one side” and the promotion of mutually beneficial win-win cooperation. We stress that we should jointly promote the construction of Eurasian large channel, big market and big industry, community.