According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber has fluctuated downward in the past month. As of July 22, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.82% from June 23.

The demand side performance in June was average, with short fiber prices mainly following fluctuations in raw materials. In early July, short fiber enterprises independently reduced the proportion of contracts and promoted the phased repair of processing fees. However, due to insufficient follow-up of terminal textile orders, downstream yarn factories have continued to experience a decline in load, resulting in a shift in the center of gravity of short fiber prices.
The cost side support has retreated, the trend of crude oil has weakened, and there are many external unstable factors. The overall trend of commodities is sluggish. As of July 21, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.95 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.21 per barrel.
Recently, the operation of PTA plants in China has been stable. In the second half of the year, a total of 6.2 million tons of new PTA production capacity will be put into the market, while the downstream polyester sector will only add more than 3 million tons of new production capacity. The supply-demand imbalance will be further highlighted, and there are still expectations of inventory accumulation. The price performance is weak, with the average PTA market price in East China at 4817 yuan/ton as of July 22, a decrease of 8.8% from June 23.
The downstream yarn industry has shown weak performance, partly due to the impact of high temperature and high heat environment. In order to ensure worker safety and reduce energy consumption, yarn factories generally adopt the strategy of “reducing shifts to ensure production”; On the one hand, the procurement of non essential consumer goods such as clothing and home textiles has shrunk, resulting in a decrease in foreign trade orders, which directly affects exports.
Business analysts believe that the fluctuating news of tariffs, geopolitical factors, and other factors have led to a wide range of fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the lack of substantial benefits for PTA supply and demand has limited cost support. Under the combined off-season, the terminal textile orders continue to decrease, and it is difficult for the demand side to improve in the short term. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will remain weakly adjusted.

This week, the domestic melamine market continued its weak trend, with a downward shift in price focus and a light trading atmosphere. As of July 21st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5837.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton). Compared with the high of 6875 yuan/ton in the same period last year, it has dropped significantly by 19.6% year-on-year, with a price difference of 1038 yuan/ton, reflecting a clear loose supply and demand pattern in the current market.

Raw material end:
From the upstream of the industrial chain, the raw material urea market has continued to weaken this week, although there has been a slight rebound recently due to local device maintenance. As of July 21, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1830.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% compared to last week (1838.00 yuan/ton). The sustained low operation of raw material prices has significantly weakened the cost support for melamine production. According to estimates, the current production cost of melamine has decreased by about 15% compared to the beginning of the year, and the price drop of the product is even greater, resulting in a continuous compression of the industry’s profit margin. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have approached the breakeven line.
Supply and demand side:
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, the current melamine market presents a dual weak characteristic of “weak supply and weak demand”. In terms of supply, the industry’s average operating rate remained at a low level of 56.73%, a decrease of 4.15 percentage points from the same period last year. However, social inventory remains high and the speed of destocking has significantly slowed down. The demand side continues to be weak, and dealers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a low willingness to purchase. Affected by the deep adjustment of the real estate industry, the order volume of downstream panel enterprises has significantly shrunk, only 20% -35% of the same period last year. The operating rate of enterprises continues to operate at a low level, and the procurement of melamine is strictly controlled within the necessary amount.
Under the pressure of market supply-demand imbalance, some atmospheric pressure units have actively reduced their production load, and some enterprises have chosen to shut down for maintenance to alleviate inventory pressure. The performance in import and export is flat, with a cumulative export of 320000 tons from January to June, a slight increase of only 0.32% year-on-year. It is expected that the annual export volume will be in the range of 400000 to 550000 tons, making it difficult to effectively digest domestic excess capacity.
The current melamine market is facing dual pressures of insufficient cost support and weak demand follow-up. On the one hand, the prices of raw materials such as urea continue to fluctuate at a low level; On the other hand, downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have entered the traditional off-season, with low purchasing enthusiasm. In addition, the lack of significant improvement in export orders has led to the gradual accumulation of market inventory pressure. It is expected that without significant positive stimuli in the short term, the price of melamine may continue to maintain a weak and volatile pattern.
Looking ahead to the future, under the dual pressure of expected resumption of production and seasonal demand off-season, the market is unlikely to show signs of recovery in the short term. It is expected that some factories in the northern region may lower their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton, while in Xinjiang, due to major equipment repairs, local prices may receive temporary support.

Since mid July, the overall ABS market has continued to consolidate weakly, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 21st, the average price of ABS sample products was 10350 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.59% compared to early July.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since mid July, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with small increases, and the overall load level has been raised from 65% to around 67%. The weekly average production has remained stable at over 120000 tons, and the inventory position of aggregation enterprises is also stable and rising at over 200000 tons. The on-site supply remains abundant. The supply side of the industry has further relaxed. Overall, the ABS market is not in a long-term pattern of loose supply, but fortunately the industry inventory is relatively controllable. The future supply of goods tends to be loose, and the support for ABS spot prices from the supply side is average.
Cost factor: Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been declining and rising, which has limited support for the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market remains deadlocked and weak, with enterprise capacity utilization and output basically leveling off. The overall utilization rate of downstream production capacity has significantly decreased, and enterprises purchase raw materials on demand, resulting in a weakening of overall demand. In addition, the decline in raw materials and industry profits have made it difficult for the acrylonitrile market to see any positive results, and the weakness is difficult to change.
The domestic butadiene market has been fluctuating and rising recently, with insufficient port arrivals in East China and low inventory levels, boosting market sentiment. Mainstream refineries generally transact at a premium, driving market sentiment to further strengthen. The demand side has shown stable performance recently and urgently needs to replenish inventory. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene market will mainly operate steadily, moderately, and strongly supported by favorable supply side conditions.
Styrene has been fluctuating and falling recently. Upstream crude oil fluctuates, pure benzene consumption tends to be weak, and the support for styrene is poor, while supply side port inventories continue to increase. Under the pressure of expanding losses and high inventory of finished products, downstream companies in the Three S sector continue to stop and reduce their burden, resulting in a weakened demand for styrene. The current fundamentals of the styrene market are weak and difficult to change, and it is expected to operate weakly in the future.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market is in the traditional off-season range, and terminal enterprises maintain a strong demand for supplementary orders. Since the middle of the month, the market concerns caused by the deterioration of geopolitics in the Middle East have been basically digested, and industry players are more concerned about the uncertainty of US future tariff policies and their impact on market demand. The atmosphere of caution is pervasive in the market, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.

Future forecast
Since mid July, the domestic ABS market has continued to weaken and consolidate. The prices of upstream three materials are generally weak, and the production load of ABS polymerization plants is stable with small increases, while the demand side is at a low season level. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 18th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9500 yuan/ton. Compared with July 13th (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9050 yuan/ton), the price increased by 450 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.97%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 continued to rise and operate as a whole this week. During the week, the focus of negotiations in the silicon metal # 441 market continued to move towards higher levels, with the overall market price increasing by 200-400 yuan/ton. As of July 18th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 9500-9600 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 9700-9800 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and output: Currently, there are devices reducing production in the northern region, while there are devices resuming production in the southern region. The output shows an increase in the south and a decrease in the north, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. At present, the market price of metallic silicon is in the stage of recovery, and the market is still paying attention to the resumption of production and operation of silicon enterprises in the southwest and northern regions.
In terms of demand: Currently, the overall downstream demand for metallic silicon has improved, and the demand for raw materials for downstream organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon has improved compared to the previous period. The demand side has provided certain support to the metallic silicon market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is good. The transmission between supply and demand of metal silicon is still good. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine rose on July 17th. The average market price of bromine is around 26800 yuan/ton, up 3.47% from yesterday. On July 16th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 90.88, an increase of 2.11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.93% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 54.24% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has remained strong, with a reference price of 26000-27000 yuan/ton for spot bromine production in Shandong region. Due to environmental reasons and the arrival of the rainy season, bromine production has decreased in the supply side, but downstream procurement remains cautious. In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur prices are operating steadily, with an average market price of 2297.67 yuan/ton. Downstream purchases should be made as needed.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Bromine prices are expected to rise, while enterprise operating rates are expected to decrease. Downstream companies are expected to purchase as needed. It is expected that bromine will continue to maintain a strong market trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a downward trend in July. As of July 16th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.81% from the beginning of the month.

The international oil price market is fluctuating. As of July 15th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.71 per barrel. Geopolitical and tariff instability, the US sanctions plan against Russia will not be implemented in the short term, coupled with the ongoing OPEC+production increase, it is expected that the center of gravity of crude oil decline will weaken and adjust.
Recently, there has been little change in the PTA plant. Domestic PTA is in the production cycle, and there are relatively few maintenance plans in the second half of the year, resulting in relatively loose supply.
Downstream polyester production and sales are weak, and inventory continues to rise, with inventory rebounding. During the seasonal off-season of demand, the production and sales of polyester filament are under pressure. Manufacturers have repeatedly offered discounts on shipments, but the results have been minimal. Factory inventory continues to grow, and the market continues to be weak. We plan to continue implementing production cuts. Lack of demand for terminal weaving, insufficient orders, and maintenance of essential stock of raw materials.
Business analysts believe that the cost support of crude oil fluctuations is limited, and the PTA industry is expected to expand capacity, coupled with the expectation of polyester production reduction. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA will continue to be weak in the short term.

Price trend: first falling, then rising, and then weakening, showing an “inverted N-type” oscillation (7.8-7.15)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 15th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 120666.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.64% and a year-on-year decline of 10.94%, continuing to fluctuate weakly.

Macro level: intertwining long and short factors
Domestic favorable factors
Trade Policy: China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations completed, protocol signed within the year (favorable for regional raw material circulation)
Economic data: GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year (exceeding expectations), but the transmission of industrial metal demand has not yet emerged.
Overseas risk suppression
US tariff shock (core negative): On July 12th, it was announced to impose 20% -50% tariffs on 20+countries/regions (effective August 1st); Key categories: 50% copper, 200% pharmaceuticals (18 month buffer period), semiconductors (to be announced); Russia Ukraine affiliation clause: If no agreement is reached within 50 days, 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russia.
Federal Reserve policy divergence: Expectations of interest rate cuts are delayed, and the market’s probability of a rate cut in July has decreased from 80% to 35% (CME data). Officials have divergent views, with the mainstream faction (6/11 officials) supporting interest rate cuts within the year but excluding July, the hawks advocating for holding back for the whole year (the effect of tariff inflation remains to be observed), and the dovish faction calling for immediate action (Daley called for “two interest rate cuts in the autumn”).
Supply side: deepening of surplus pattern
Nickel ore: Indonesia’s RKAB quota has been approved at 360 million tons, but only 120 million tons were consumed in the first half of the year. The willingness of mines to raise prices has weakened, but downstream intermediate/refined nickel production capacity continues to be released, and it is expected that nickel ore prices will slow down.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 3960 tons to 206580 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 722 tons to 21555 tons during the cycle. Global inventory increased rapidly during the week, and the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Weak dual line
Stainless steel (accounting for over 70% of nickel demand): The stainless steel production in July was 3.1655 million tons, a decrease of 9.58% compared to the previous month. Policy support: Multiple departments are cracking down on “internal competition”. On July 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 12900 yuan/ton (up 9.7% weekly), and actual consumption is still in the off-season.
New energy (ternary battery): Marginal weakening of demand for nickel sulfate (June power battery installed capacity -5.3% month on month)
Market outlook: weak oscillation, central downward shift
If tariffs are implemented or the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, or if the market is bearish, pay attention to the start of the stainless steel peak season stocking in August. If the domestic stainless steel destocking exceeds expectations, the bullish market may rise. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable, medium to strong trend, with some manufacturers offering slightly higher prices. The overall market transaction center has shifted upward, but the melamine market has not effectively boosted market demand. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1861.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10% compared to the beginning of this month (1823.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 14th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9140 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8730 yuan/ton), the price increased by 410 yuan/ton, a 4.70% increase.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early July, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed a steady upward trend overall. In the first ten days, the spot market price of silicon metal # 441 in many regions of China has been continuously adjusted upwards, with a cumulative adjustment range of around 300-500 yuan/ton. As of July 14th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9200-9300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 9200-9400 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of raw material costs: Currently, the overall operation of the silica market is stable, and some mines have certain supply pressure. Currently, the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines in Inner Mongolia is referred to as 300-330 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines in Hubei is referred to as 290-330 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of low-grade silica mines in Jiangxi is referred to as 310-320 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines is referred to as around 380-420 yuan/ton.
In terms of supply and production: In July, Yunnan region entered a period of abundant water, and some metal silicon production capacity resumed. The metal silicon production in Sichuan Yunnan region is also expected to increase. Large factories in the north have reduced production, but most silicon companies have stable production. The overall production of metal silicon has increased, but the overall supply pressure is not great, and the supply side provides certain support to the market.
In terms of demand: As we enter July, the overall production of downstream organic silicon and polycrystalline markets for metallic silicon has slightly increased, and the demand for raw material metallic silicon has also improved. The demand side has provided enhanced support to the metallic silicon market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to price data, the price of polyester bottle flakes (PET) continued its weak downward trend this week, dropping from 6012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5960 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 0.87%.

In terms of cost, the decline in crude oil prices, OPEC+production expectations, and uncertainty about US tariff policies have led to Brent crude oil falling to $68.64 per barrel (-2.21% MoM), directly dragging PTA spot prices down to $4870 per ton and ethylene glycol falling below $4400 per ton.
In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production decreased to 327000 tons (month on month -2.72 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 71.5% (month on month -5.9 percentage points), mainly due to the joint production reduction of 20% by top enterprises such as Wankai and Yisheng. Despite the contraction of supply, the industry’s inventory days remained at a high level of 16-18 days, and sufficient spot circulation continued to suppress price rebound. The operating rate of soft drinks remains at 80% -90%, with high inventory of end products (such as 23.64 days in the finished product warehouse of textile enterprises), and only sporadic small orders for replenishment, without the motivation to chase price increases.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market is in a triple game stage of weak cost support, strong supply contraction, and stable demand growth. If crude oil continues to decline or demand weakens, it may explore the support level of 5800 yuan/ton.