The ethylene glycol market is expected to exhibit a wide fluctuation trend in December

Ethylene glycol prices declined in November
In November, the price of ethylene glycol continued to decline, with the average price dropping. Recently, the price has begun to stabilize. According to data from Business Society, as of November 28, the domestic oil-based ethylene glycol average price was 4,050 yuan per ton, down 4.05% from the average price of 4,220.83 yuan per ton on November 1.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, the spot contract (minimum 500 tons) for port ethylene glycol has shown a significant weakening in basis, with intra-day declines this week as spot prices started to discount futures. Today’s intra-day basis quotes for this week’s contract ranged from +8 to -5. As of the close on November 28, next week’s contract basis quotes were +5 to +6, the December contract basis quotes were +18 to +20, and the January contract basis quotes were +33 to +35.
The spot price for domestic coal-based polyethylene glycol (PET-grade, bulk, tax-inclusive, self-pickup) for whole truckloads is 3,720-3,880 yuan per ton.
In the international market for ethylene glycol, as of November 26, the negotiated spot prices for recent shipments arriving at the shore were around $460-$462 per ton.
Changes in the Ethylene Glycol Unit in December 2025:
The dynamics of the ethylene glycol production facilities in December 2025 encompass reductions in domestic operations, maintenance schedules, and the addition of new facilities. Overseas, there are planned shutdowns and delayed restarts among other factors. Specific details are as follows:
Domestic equipment
A Zhejiang Plant Reduces Load: Market rumors suggest that an ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang with an annual capacity of 800,000 tons plans to reduce its operating load starting in December. Specific load reduction measures and subsequent adjustment schedules have not been disclosed in further detail.
The impact of previous shutdowns at some facilities continues, while new facilities contribute incremental output: In November, several domestic ethylene glycol plants were shut down, resulting in a total capacity loss of 1 million tons. If these facilities remain offline in December, the supply will continue to be affected that month. Meanwhile, a new 830,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol plant in South China, originally scheduled to commence operations in Q1 2026, began trial runs with ethylene feedstock in early November. It is expected to bring a modest additional output increment to the market in December.

Ethylene-based plants have maintenance plans: In the later phase of domestic ethylene-based EG production, maintenance schedules are in place for ethylene-based plants. However, the specific plant names, production capacity, and duration of maintenance for December have not yet been finalized. The actual implementation of these maintenance plans may impact the total supply of ethylene-based EG for that month.
Overseas installation
Iran plans to shut down multiple plants: Market reports on November 24 indicated that four Iranian ethylene glycol plants, with a combined annual production capacity of 7.25 million tons, are scheduled to cease operations between late November and early December. As of November 28, the actual implementation remains uncertain. If the shutdowns proceed smoothly in December, global ethylene glycol supply will be significantly reduced. Earlier reports also mentioned that two Iranian ethylene glycol plants, with a combined annual capacity of 3.3 million tons, had already halted operations. If they remain offline in December, their impact on supply will persist.
Singapore Plant Restart Delayed: A 900,000-ton-per-year ethylene glycol unit in Singapore, originally scheduled to resume operations around late December 2025, has now seen its restart delayed, with no specific resumption plan announced yet. The unit had been shut down around August 2025, and this delay will prevent overseas ethylene glycol supply from being supplemented by this capacity in December.

Forecast of Ethylene Glycol Market in December 2025
Based on the market performance in November and core variables of supply and demand, the ethylene glycol market is likely to experience a wide range of fluctuations in December 2025, with a price range focused on 3750-4050 yuan/ton. The long and short factors on the supply and demand side are playing against each other, while cost and inventory factors will also form key constraints on the market. The specific forecast is as follows:
Supply side: intertwining long and short, restricting significant fluctuations in supply
The bullish factor is prominent: Iran’s facility shutdown plan is the biggest variable on the supply side in December. On November 24th, it was reported that Iran has already shut down two sets of 3.3 million tons/year facilities, and another four sets of 7.25 million tons/year facilities are planned to shut down from late November to early December. If implemented, it will reduce global ethylene glycol production capacity by 8%, resulting in a daily reduction of about 20000 tons of supply and significantly tightening global supply. In addition, a 900000 ton/year plant in Singapore was originally scheduled to restart at the end of December, but the restart time has been postponed and there is no clear plan. The capacity gap since the shutdown in August has continued, and it is impossible to make up for overseas supply in December. Domestically, Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s 1 million ton unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in early December, and a set of 800000 ton units at Zhejiang Petrochemical is also planned to take off and operate negatively in December, further reducing some production capacity supply.
Negative factors still exist: the continuous release of new domestic production capacity brings supply pressure. The 200000 ton new plant in Ningxia and the 830000 ton new plant in BASF have been put into trial operation in November, and are expected to form actual production increases in December; Shenghong Refining and Chemical’s 900000 ton plant is also scheduled to restart at the end of November, and these new and restarted production capacities will offset the impact of some maintenance on the reduced capacity. At the same time, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in China reached over 72% in November. Although some units underwent load reduction maintenance, the overall operating level of the industry remained relatively high, providing basic support for supply in December.
Demand side: Short term support, long-term weak pressure
Strong short-term support: The downstream polyester industry currently maintains a high operating rate of over 91%, and the industry’s profitability and inventory status are healthy. The short-term operating level is expected to remain stable, providing significant support for the demand for ethylene glycol. In addition, in early November, Indian merchants purchased a large amount of FDY due to policy adjustments, resulting in a significant increase in orders for filament exports. Bottle processing fees also continued to recover, which to some extent drove the release of demand for ethylene glycol. This trend is expected to continue in early December.

Gradual weakness in the medium to long term: December has entered the traditional off-season of the textile industry, and terminal weaving orders have shown signs of a high-level decline with the weather turning cold, making it more difficult to clear raw fabric inventory. As the New Year approaches, some weaving manufacturers may experience workers returning home, leading to a concentrated decrease in operating rates, which will then be transmitted to the polyester process, resulting in a decrease in polyester load and ultimately weakening demand for ethylene glycol. This off-season effect will gradually become apparent as December progresses.
Cost and inventory: Cost bottoming supports prices, inventory accumulation suppresses price increases
Bottom support is formed on the cost side: Currently, the cash flow of the coal to ethylene glycol marginal unit has fallen below the cost line, and the marginal profit loss of coal to ethylene glycol in November reached 784 yuan. If the price continues to drop to around 3700 yuan/ton in December, it is expected to trigger strong support on the supply side, and the willingness of enterprises to reduce production due to losses will increase, thereby suppressing further price declines. In terms of oil to ethylene glycol production, the fluctuation of raw material oil prices has limited support, but it will not significantly drag down the cost of ethylene glycol, and the overall cost line will form a bottom line constraint on the December market.
Inventory side suppresses upward elasticity: Since November, the explicit inventory of ethylene glycol at ports has continued to accumulate, with poor port shipments during the week. It is expected that the slight accumulation of inventory will continue in December. The gradual increase in port inventory has led to loose market liquidity, weakening the upward rebound momentum of prices. Even if there is a sudden reduction in supply, inventory can still form a buffer, making it difficult to drive prices up significantly.
Overall, there is bottom support for ethylene glycol in December due to favorable factors such as the shutdown of facilities in Iran, but negative factors such as the release of new production capacity, inventory accumulation, and low demand season will suppress the increase. Therefore, it is predicted that the spot operation range of ethylene glycol in December will fluctuate widely within the range of 3750-4050 yuan/ton.